An Ode to the New York Subway Overall, the subway remains far safer than other forms of transportation. Indeed, one reason New York City is much safer overall than small-town or even suburban America is that far fewer people die in traffic accidents. ......... the New York subway, with its extensive four-track system — which lets it put many local stops close together while allowing easy transfer to fast express trains — is arguably more functional than its counterparts elsewhere. ......... its main function is to make a high-density lifestyle possible. Not everyone wants to live that way, but some do. For what it’s worth, dense urban environments don’t have to be the hellscapes I suspect many Americans imagine they are. ........ The two New York neighborhoods I know best, the Upper West Side and Jackson Heights, Queens, have population densities of 61,000 and 42,000 people per square mile, respectively. ......... how life-enhancing it can be to have a huge range of services within easy walking distance. ........ not everyone wants to live in a car-based metropolis like Atlanta or Dallas, either. It’s only thanks to mass transit systems like the New York subway that the United States can offer large numbers of people an alternative to sprawl. So the subway makes America more varied in lifestyles, which enriches the nation as a whole, both culturally and economically......... neighborhoods like Jackson Heights are incredibly diverse, and living in or visiting them gives you a much wider view of humanity than most Americans ever encounter. ....... Hostility to groups that don’t look or sound like you tends to be highest when you don’t encounter people different from yourself very often......... the subway system plays a hugely positive role in the life of a city that offers things no other place in America can match.
Dnipro residents fear dark, cold winter as Russia smashes infrastructure With the elevator useless, Tetiana walked up five floors in the dark with her dachshund to a drab apartment with no candles or flashlights. Before walking the dog, she had spent the past two hours texting with relatives across the country, some of whom were also without power. “This is the first time this has happened,” said Tetiana, a middle-aged woman who declined to give her last name. “I’m in shock.” ....... (Targeting civilian infrastructure with no military purpose is a war crime.) ...... Russia’s bombing campaign, which left 1.5 million people across Ukraine without power on Saturday, has evoked scenes of European cities plunged into darkness during World War II. But in the 21st century, the tactic has upended remote work, interrupted distance schooling for children, and risks draining cellphones on which so many now rely to check on loved ones or learn of incoming rocket fire. ......... She said she regretted decades ago giving up a wood-fired stove, the use of which even today remains common in the countryside. Her family had saved food, especially for the baby, but could do little about the dropping temperatures.
Rishi Sunak Won’t Save Britain In March, Rishi Sunak was photographed filling up a car at a supermarket gas station. The purpose, of course, was self-promotion: Mr. Sunak was keen to advertise his role, as finance minister, in cutting the price of fuel. ......... The car, a modest red Kia Rio, wasn’t his (it belonged to a supermarket employee). Inside the garage, Mr. Sunak further embarrassed himself by showing he had no idea how to make a contactless payment. ........ Liz Truss’s disastrous 44-day premiership proved his warnings about economic “fairy tales” to be remarkably prescient; he commands the support of a majority of the faction-ridden Conservative parliamentary party; and his ascent — on the back of his grasp of economics — has calmed the financial markets. ......... That country, economically stagnant, regionally unbalanced, socially strafed, is in dire need of compassionate leadership. In Mr. Sunak, by conviction a devotee of small-state Thatcherism and with no visible concern for the lives of the majority, Britain is unlikely to get it. ........... it was estimated that in the absence of greater support, 1.3 million people would fall into absolute poverty. His scant plans for the worse off were deemed in The Times of London to be “insufficient, inefficient and unconservative.” The criticism was a fitting capstone for his tenure, defined by a selective and shallow concern for others.......... It’s a bad time for the country to be in dispassionate hands. Inflation stands at over 10 percent. Living standards have eroded, with Britons set to see the biggest drop in disposable income since records began. For the first time, demand for food banks is said to be outstripping supply. Energy blackouts could be coming in January. In April, after a further increase in bills, the number of people in fuel poverty could reach 10.7 million. Ambulance delays are now a palpable “threat to life.” The economy is anemic, set to have the highest inflation and lowest growth rates of the Group of 7 nations next year. ............ His attitude toward regional inequality, among the worst of any comparable developed country’s, is instructive: In office, he boasted about rigging Treasury formulas to shift resources from “deprived urban areas” into wealthier constituencies, regardless of need. .......... After 12 years in power, the Conservative Party is almost out of ideas. ........ it’s fair to assume that in the name of fiscal rectitude, he will rein in public spending and cut social protections. ....... at the outset of his tenure, one thing seems guaranteed: Mr. Sunak, conservative savior, won’t save the country.
What if We Let Majoritarian Democracy Take Root? Many Americans believe there’s something not quite right about majority rule — something threatening, something dangerous. It just feels wrong. ........ the United States is a “republic, not a democracy” and that democracy would be the ruin of American liberty. We are taught to imagine ourselves as potentially being at the awful mercy of most of our fellow citizens. ....... Our collective suspicion of majority rule rests on the legitimate observation that a majority can be as tyrannical as any despot. ........ If allowed to stand in full, the Civil Rights Act of 1875 — passed by only the third U.S. Congress to have Black members, who were elected in some of the first truly free elections in the South — would have outlawed discrimination in public accommodations like railroads, steamboats, hotels and theaters and prohibited jury exclusion on the basis of race. But the court, in an 1883 opinion, decided that neither the 13th nor the 14th Amendment gave Congress the power to outlaw racial discrimination by private individuals. .......... the example of Reconstruction and its aftermath suggests that if majorities had been able to act, unimpeded, to protect the rights of Black Americans, it might have been a little less tragic than what we experienced instead. ......... If it were up to majorities of Americans — and if, more important, the American political system more easily allowed majorities to express their will — then Congress would have already strengthened the Voting Rights Act, codified abortion rights into law and protected the civil rights of L.G.B.T.Q. Americans. Even the legislative victories most Americans rightfully admire — like the Civil Rights Act of 1964 — were possible only with a supermajority of lawmakers assembled in the wake of a presidential assassination. ......... If it were up to the national majority, American democracy would most likely be in a stronger place, not the least because Donald Trump might not have become president. Our folk beliefs about American government notwithstanding, the much-vaunted guardrails and endlessly invoked norms of our political system have not secured our democracy as much as they’ve facilitated the efforts of those who would degrade and undermine it. .......... Majority rule is not perfect but rule by a narrow, reactionary minority — what we face in the absence of serious political reform — is far worse. And much of our fear of majorities, the legacy of a founding generation that sought to restrain the power of ordinary people, is unfounded. It is not just that rule of the majority is, as Abraham Lincoln said, “the only true sovereign of a free people”; it is also the only sovereign that has reliably worked to protect those people from the deprivations of hierarchy and exploitation. ........ The liberty of would-be masters might suffer. The liberty of ordinary people, on the other hand, might flourish
The Three Blunders of Joe Biden Wonking Out: Facts, Feelings and Rural Politics How Toni Morrison Wrote Her Most Challenging Novel In Los Angeles, Politics Are More Complex Than a Racist Recording Indicates Recently leaked audio of Latino leaders exposed their ambition to gain power. But loyalties don’t always follow racial lines in the city’s most Latino district. ...... The audio also exposed frustrations that there weren’t more Latinos in elected office, at a time when they comprise half the city’s population. ........ In the 1980s, increasing numbers of Latino immigrants moved into South Los Angeles, fleeing Central American civil wars and Mexican economic disruption. ....... Latino residents now comprise the largest ethnic group in 10 of the city’s 15 Council districts ......... Overall, some 48 percent of Angelenos are Hispanic, according to the Census Bureau, while just under 9 percent are Black. ........ “There were gangs at every corner,” he said of those days, as he strolled the aisles of Superior Grocers on Central Avenue, speaking over piped-in Mexican country music. “You lived in fear that you would be assaulted or robbed.”
"with Democrats banking they can hitch Republican candidates to an unpopular supreme court decision to overturn federal guarantees of a woman’s right to abortion. Republicans, meanwhile, are laser-focused on high inflation rates, economic troubles and fears over crime. ........political forecasting has become Moore’s business since he correctly called that Donald Trump would win the national elections in 2016, against common judgment of the media and pollsters businesses. ....... this will be “Roe-vember” ........ “If I said to you six months ago, ‘you know Kansas, right? It’s a huge pro-abortion state and this summer by a margin of 60% they’re going to keep abortion legal’ you’d think I had made a crazy statement,” he says. ....... “If I’d told you at the same time that in the congressional election in Alaska, a hard red state, that it’s not only going to be won by a Democrat but a Native Alaskan Democrat, again you’d have to question if I was out of my mind.” ........ Boise, Idaho, where an incumbent Republican candidate for the board of education was endorsed by a far-right group, the Idaho Liberty Dogs, and lost to an 18-year-old high school senior and progressive activist, Shiva Rajbhandari, who was also co-founder of the Boise chapter of the climate group Extinction Rebellion. ....... Moore predicts the election will see a record turnout of younger voters whose views pundits and commentators often miss. “If you spend any time with women, the Dobbs decision struck them personally and deeply. This was a religious edict based on conservative Catholic principles.” ......... The Democratic party consultants are feeding lines that are so lame and weak. They don’t go for the jugular like a Republican would. It doesn’t inspire people at home.” ........ the biggest political grouping in the US is not Republicans or Democrats, but non-voters. This non-voter party, which is perhaps the most potentially powerful but also the most inaccessible, is the group Moore wants to reach. .......... “The non-voter party don’t see how politics benefits them, they’re disgusted with the hypocrisy, a lot are disgusted with the crazy fighting that goes on, and the craziness that Trump amped up,” Moore says, adding that when he turns on the TV in the evening he doesn’t necessarily go to a news channel but looks for a comedy. ....... it could be as simple as calling a cousin who doesn’t vote to give her reasons why, this time, it’s important and that “she can go back to non-voting after this.” ...... “Aren’t you tired of nothing getting done? All this deadlock bullshit. One way to undo this logjam is to give Democrats a chance to pass legislation and let’s see how it works out. "
Ukraine war heading for ‘uncontrolled escalation’, says Russia Moscow appears to be preparing ground for further escalation with discredited claims that Kyiv may use ‘dirty’ bomb ........ “The allegation that Ukraine is preparing to use dirty bombs in Ukraine is absurd.” ....... Kyiv and its western allies, which have been supplying Ukraine with modern weapons, intelligence and training. ........ Shoigu discussed the “rapidly deteriorating situation” in phone calls with his British, French and Turkish counterparts and also spoke by phone with the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, for the second time in three days. The Pentagon said Austin told Shoigu he “rejected any pretext for Russian escalation”. ............ “I worry there is too much motivated reasoning in dismissing possible Russian nuclear use. We don’t want it to happen, and/or we don’t see the point, therefore it won’t. But Russia faces logic of dwindling choices as it loses. Escalation of all kinds more likely.” ........... Russia accused western countries of having “essentially stolen” its gold and foreign exchange reserves via sanctions. Asked by reporters about an EU proposal to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, Peskov said: “In general, a part large of our assets have been essentially stolen by specific western countries.”
New Tory leader Rishi Sunak says party facing ‘existential threat’ Incoming prime minister says Tories must ‘unite or die’ and rules out early general election ........ Ruling out an early general election, he said he would lead a government of serious Conservative values and make his first priority tackling the economic crisis. ....... Five minutes after Mordaunt’s withdrawal, Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee, formally announced the result. “I can confirm that we have one valid nomination, and Rishi Sunak is elected as leader of the Conservative party,” he said. ......... had secured the backing of more than half the parliamentary party by Monday morning. ......... Sunak told MPs that his ambition was to have a “highly productive UK economy” ........ He said a stable and productive economy would be the engine that drives a well-funded health and education service and delivers on net zero, and he said it would be an “environmentally focused government.” ........ Sunak, whose parents are of Punjabi Indian heritage, will be the first person of colour to become British prime minister. ........ Benjamin Disraeli, who held the office twice between 1868 and 1880, was of Jewish heritage. At 42, Sunak is the youngest prime minister for more than 200 years. ........ His victory, in effect a coronation with not a single formal vote being cast, even by MPs
Rebels plot to replace Liz Truss with Rishi Sunak amid UK crisis among those who voted for the Conservatives at the last election, 62 per cent that party members had made the wrong choice when the race was shortlisted between Truss and Sunak, compared with 15 per cent who said they had got it right.
Rishi Sunak's rise signifies the arrival of the Indian diaspora New generations of emigrants have successfully plunged into local politics ......... The success of Rishi Sunak, former British chancellor, at winning a place in the runoff to be the next leader of the U.K.'s ruling Conservative Party and the country's next prime minister has triggered intense excitement and interest in India and among its 32 million-strong diaspora around the world. ........ The prospect of a young politician who hails from a family of Punjabi emigrants to East Africa and Britain making it to the top office of India's former colonial master has tantalized observers. ........ it should be placed in the context of growing self-confidence and self-expression among the Indian diaspora as a whole. ......... In the past few decades, numerous political success stories have emerged from among the Indian diaspora. ......... There are now seven heads of government and state from the Indian diaspora in countries ranging from Portugal, Singapore, Suriname and Guyana to Mauritius and the Seychelles. Others serve in senior executive, legislative, judicial or party roles, such as U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Jagmeet Singh, head of Canada's opposition New Democratic Party. ........ Kamala Harris, for example, has credited her Indian mother from the state of Tamil Nadu as inspiration for her entry into public life in the U.S. "My mother had been raised in a household where political activism and civic leadership came naturally," said Harris. ........ Sunak has praised his in-laws, Indian information technology pioneers and philanthropists Sudha Murty and Narayana Murthy. "[Theirs] is a story I'm really proud of and as the prime minister, I want to ensure that we can create more stories like theirs here at home," he told British voters. ....... Despite facing racism and prejudice, many persons of Indian origin have displayed pragmatism and determination to prove their worth. ......... It is not a statistical fluke that the Indian diaspora is one of the richest minority communities in most developed countries, boasting of higher education levels and per capita incomes on average than other immigrant groups and even the majority ethnic groups in some host countries. ......... Since there is a direct correlation between education, wealth and political clout in democracies, the political rise of the diaspora Indian stands on strong structural foundations. .......... Another factor that is propelling the political ascendance of diaspora Indians is the formation of their own ethnic associations and lobbies. Akin to successful Jewish groups which have helped support Israel's interests worldwide, these associations of Indian-origin people are now advocating for New Delhi's interests in various countries and are having an impact on policymaking. ........ Consider the recent vote by the U.S. House of Representatives to waive potential sanctions against India over its purchase of advanced Russian weapons systems. This proposal was shepherded by California Rep. Rohit Khanna, a member of the so-called "samosa caucus" of U.S. diaspora Indians who support one another and maintain ties with the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. By no coincidence, Modi is an ardent champion of the diaspora. ........... Sunak's contention that his candidacy for Britain's highest office is "not the end of the British Indian story" and that "there is lots more we can achieve" is a direct acknowledgment of a triangular connection between India, its diaspora in the U.K. and his own spectacular political surge. ........ India itself may not be taking over the world, but its civilizational progeny are definitely going places.
A dim future awaits a closed-off China Surging nationalism and heavy-handed policies have left Beijing isolated ....... China's rapid growth has been made possible by a global economy. No country has enjoyed the benefits as much as China, and Beijing cannot live in isolation from the rest of the world. ...... China's foreign and security policies, which emphasize strength, have created an atmosphere in which Beijing is willing to face off against governments with which it once had good relations, such as the U.S., Europe and Japan. The low-profile foreign policy of the Deng Xiaoping era, characterized by hiding one's claws and biding one's time, has been overwhelmed by the cries for a strong nation. ........ Also troubling is that the economic and cultural policies of Deng's "reform and opening up" strategy have been drowned out. Xi has pushed for "common prosperity," with an emphasis on economic equality. Hidden here is a political agenda to surpass the achievements of Deng, who actually brought prosperity to China. There is much opposition within the country to Xi's move to explore a return to China's socialist origins. ........ China's strict zero-COVID policy has resulted in economic exhaustion and de facto isolation, reducing person-to-person exchanges with other countries. As long as China continues to be closed off, its future does not look bright. ......... Hong Kong, once a window to the wider world, has been deprived of its freedom in the name of national security. Beijing touts the principle of "patriots ruling Hong Kong," but only patriots as defined by the Communist Party. This is the death of a free Hong Kong. .......... On the issue of Taiwan, Xi said, "Realizing China's complete reunification is, for the party, a historic mission and an unshakable commitment," stressing that "we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary." ......... the Chinese Communist Party is a dictatorship governing the world's second-largest economy and 1.4 billion people. The confrontation between the U.S. and China, Taiwan's status, and many other issues will have a major global impact, so there is no choice but to watch the party carefully. ........ economic achievements directly related to people's lives have been few over the past decade. The economic growth rate is also trending downward, and public dissatisfaction has surfaced in some parts of the country.
Modi is turning India's nonalignment policy into a business model Top officials advance export drive by promoting wares of state-owned arms makers ......... Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is the first career diplomat to serve as India's external affairs minister. Unlike many of his predecessors, he has also had experience in the private sector, serving as president of global corporate affairs for the Tata Group for about a year just before taking up his current role. ......... His unique background, coupled with the "Make in India" and "Atmanirbhar Bharat" drives by the administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to promote foreign investment and self-reliance, respectively, are reshaping the country's foreign policy. ......... Unlike preceding administrations, the Modi government is not seeking to have one foot with the global South and one with the West in deference to the principle of nonalignment, nor is it motivated by what its developed-country partners call shared values. ..........
behind the veneer of India's balancing act are trade and economic interests, particularly in terms of energy, defense, pharmaceuticals and high technology.
....... India is now poised to be the fastest-growing major economy this year, with the International Monetary Fund last week forecasting a gross-domestic product rise of 6.8%. This would be more than double the pace of China or the world as a whole at a time when developed countries look poised to enter recession. ......... the Indian finance ministry credits purchases of discounted Russian oil as a key factor in the country's strong macroeconomic performance. ........ Beyond cheap oil, India is also taking advantage of the growing geopolitical fractures to sell more arms abroad, increase space cooperation and develop markets for its pharmaceuticals. ....... Visiting Argentina last month, Jaishankar pointedly used that country's name for the Falkland Islands, Islas Malvinas. This was not just a show of solidarity with a fellow member of the global South but part of a sales pitch for the Tejas fighter jet made by state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics. Buenos Aires aims by year-end to finalize a decision between competing models, including offers for the U.S. F-16, Russia's MiG-35, and the JF-17 made jointly by China and Pakistan. ......... The Tejas is billed as an affordable alternative to the F-16 and other Western fighters, and even to the JF-17. Priced at $42 million a plane with an operating cost of around $4,000 an hour, the Tejas is the cheapest lightweight combat aircraft available. ........ The Philippines, meanwhile, earlier this year finalized a $375 million deal to buy supersonic BrahMos missiles from the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), another Indian state-owned arms producer. Vietnam is also a target market for Indian defense companies. ........ Indian arms makers have other advantages besides price over their established American rivals in pitching to countries in the global South. U.S. arms makers are handcuffed by Washington's alliance policies, which fracture the world into camps. Thus the DRDO is working on a deal to sell Pinaka Mark-II guided missile systems to Armenia, a longtime Russian ally. ...... India's participation in the new
I2U2
grouping with Israel, the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates also shows how economic interests are taking precedence over past ideological priorities, in this case, support for the Palestinian cause. That effort now yields little economic benefit for New Delhi while the I2U2 in July set plans for a $2 billion series of food-sector industrial parks in India and a $330 million renewable energy project in Modi's home state of Gujarat. ........ turning top government officials into business development managers charged with cultivating foreign markets is one way to advance the effort.......... India's concept of a multipolar world can be more than geopolitical balancing between global powers but also a geoeconomic endeavor carefully crafted to take advantage of different opportunities in each country.
"And yet, these artists “have continued to innovate, lyrically and sonically, breathing new life into the genre.” .......... a pragmatic awareness that hip-hop can provide a safer and more lucrative hustle for a lucky few. ....... “Atlanta is never going to lose.” “Any kid with 500 dollars and a … dream,” he tells Coscarelli, “can come to Atlanta and … make it.” ...... Perhaps most moving is the depiction of Marlo, an aspiring rapper and Percocet addict who practices the Yoruba religion of Ifa and sojourns to Nigeria seeking spiritual guidance, and growth. He describes the “unlikely Atlanta interloper” Brodinski, a French producer and D.J., as “slim, tattooed and stylish,” representing “a benevolent version of another common hip-hop archetype: the white ambassador — usually a writer, D.J., producer, designer or executive, who at various points in the genre’s jagged commercial development had helped to take rap to different places in the popular consciousness out of some combination of self-interest, artistic commitment and opportunism.” Coscarelli stops just shy of applying the moniker to himself, but the line is a refreshing admission of the knotty role his own whiteness plays in telling this story. .......... hip-hop is a year shy of 50 ....... Making relatively brief reference to hip-hop’s emergence in the ’70s, Coscarelli writes about Atlanta rap as if it is the messiah child that sprang from no one’s loins. ......... a culture that remains stubbornly, predominantly male. "
Shehan Karunatilaka Wins Booker Prize for ‘The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida’ The Sri Lankan writer received the award, one of the most prestigious literary prizes in the world, for his second novel, which examines the trauma of his country’s decades-long civil war. ........ As a boy living through Sri Lanka’s civil war in the 1980s, Shehan Karunatilaka thought of political violence as part of the landscape. War was a constant backdrop to daily life, more mundane than frightening at times. ......... the afterlife: a tedious, dysfunctional bureaucracy, where hordes of confused ghosts are waiting to be processed. ......... “It’s a book that takes the reader on a roller coaster journey through life and death.” ....... The judges, who were unanimous in choosing “The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida,” were won over by “the variety of registers it was deploying, the skill with which language was used, and the confidence with which it shifted genre,” from noir to philosophical reflections to comedy ....... Karunatilaka was born in Galle, Sri Lanka, in 1975, and grew up in Colombo, the capital. He studied in New Zealand, and went on to work and live in London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He has worked as an advertising copywriter, and played guitar in an alternative rock band, Independent Square. He currently lives in Colombo, where he still writes ad copy during the day and works on his fiction in the early morning. ........ Karunatilaka wondered what processing the lingering trauma of war would feel like if the dead could speak, and thought about writing a ghost story. ...... he imagined the afterlife as a bland bureaucracy: “The afterlife is a tax office and everyone wants their rebate,” he writes. ........ “Maybe that is a plausible explanation for why Sri Lanka seems to go from tragedy to tragedy, that there are all these restless spirits and ghosts wandering around, confused, not sure what they’re supposed to do, and they amuse themselves by whispering bad ideas into people’s ears” ....... a war photographer named Maali Almeida wakes up dead, without a clue as to how or why he was killed. He sets out to solve the mystery of his own murder, and figures he’s been targeted for his explosive photographs ........... is told he has “seven moons” to learn who killed him and to uncover his cache of photos ......... The novel, which was published in Britain in August by Sort of Books, an independent British publishing house, drew comparisons to magical realist works by Salman Rushdie and Gabriel García Márquez.
A Secret Deal, Wishful Thinking: How the U.S.-Saudi Relationship Ruptured Ahead of President Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his administration thought it had secured pledges of increases in oil production throughout the year. The opposite happened. ........ What happened over the last half-year is a story of handshake agreements, wishful thinking, missed signals and finger-pointing over broken promises. ......... The episode is also a revealing example of how Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of its ambitious and often ruthless crown prince, appears eager to shed some of its longtime reliance on the United States, with Prince Mohammed trying to position Saudi Arabia as a powerhouse of its own. .......... “Deconstructing Saudi decision-making right now is like Kremlinology on steroids” ......... “Saudi Arabia’s refusal to stabilize global energy markets is helping bankroll Vladimir Putin’s war crimes in Ukraine.” ........ “I keep listening to, ‘Are you with us or against us?’ Is there any room for, ‘We are for Saudi Arabia and the people of Saudi Arabia’?” he said. “We will have to deliver our ambitions.”
Why Natural Gas Prices in Europe Are Suddenly Plunging A combination of full storage, lower demand and mild weather, among other factors, has eased concerns of a spike in heating and power prices — for now........ The benchmark European price of natural gas this week fell to a level that is more than 70 percent below its record high in August. One of the main reasons for the plunge in prices is that Europe, at least for now, has all the natural gas it needs. ........ over the summer, Europe went on a global buying spree ......... Special ships with huge amounts of liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., raced to Europe from the United States, Qatar and other countries (including Russia) that produce large amounts of gas. ........ many energy-hungry businesses like aluminum smelters, steel mills and fertilizer plants have at least temporarily shut down. ....... Futures prices for natural gas for delivery in January and February of 2023 are trading more than 40 percent higher than for November.
U.S. Sees Opportunity for Ukraine to Capitalize on Russian Weakness The next six weeks, before fall mud spreads, could allow Ukraine’s military to press forward in the Donbas and potentially retake Kherson, American officials said. But Russia may not be deterred. ........ The Ukrainian military has a window of opportunity to make gains against Russia’s army over the next six weeks ........ The Ukrainians defeated the Russians in the battle for Kyiv, only to see Russia grind forward during the brutal fighting in the Donbas over the summer. .......... Officers in the field agree that they are making gains, but at a high cost. ........ if Ukraine’s forces can take control of the Route 66 highway in Luhansk in the coming weeks, they can cut off a key road that Russia has been using to supply its troops in occupied areas. ....... Russia’s military is still hobbled by challenges similar to those it has faced since the start of the war. Problems with logistics have prevented Moscow from keeping soldiers adequately supplied. Communication between Russian units remains difficult, forcing them to deploy senior officers close to the front lines and hampering coordinated movements. And the reservists now being forced to the battlefields are poorly trained and badly equipped. ........ Moscow’s military can still conduct large-scale artillery operations, and Russia possesses two potential strengths: an infusion of troops from the forced mobilization Mr. Putin carried out at the insistence of key commanders and an ability to absorb large battlefield losses. ......... The Russian military has suffered a loss of equipment and soldiers that would have broken most armies in Europe. .......... Winter snow will not slow the fighting, but the mud of late fall, what Russians call rasputitsa, will. Once the ground hardens in February, around the first anniversary of the invasion, the armies can once again move more quickly. ........... Mr. Putin’s intentions for the next phase of the war are difficult to discern, and there are currently few, if any, regular contacts between American officials and their Russian counterparts. ........ major Russian offensive operations are pretty much off the table at this point ....... The dynamic of the war could change come spring. ....... The reality of modern warfare is that the winner does not get a say in when the fighting stops. Mr. Putin, officials said, is unlikely to accept defeat in the coming months.
Putin Is Onto Us Putin is now fighting a ground war to break through Ukraine’s lines and a two-front energy war to break Ukraine’s will and that of its allies. He’s trying to smash Ukraine’s electricity system to ensure a long, cold winter there while putting himself in position (in ways that I’ll explain) to drive up energy costs for all of Ukraine’s allies. And because we — America and the West — do not have an energy strategy in place to dampen the impact of Putin’s energy bomb, this is a frightening prospect.......... As a country, and as a Western alliance, we have no ladder of priorities on energy, just competing aspirations and magical thinking that we can have it all. ........ we are going to be in for a world of hurt if Putin drops the energy bomb that I think he’s assembling for Christmas. ......... Oil in just one very large tanker can be worth roughly $250 million, so the incentives are enormous. ......... China has been taking some of the L.N.G. sold to it on those fixed-price contracts for domestic use and reselling it to Europe and other gas-starved countries for $300 a barrel of oil equivalent. ......... suppose, come December, Putin announces he is halting all Russian oil and gas exports for 30 or 60 days to countries supporting Ukraine ........ In this tight market, oil could go to $200 a barrel, with a commensurate rise in the price of natural gas. We’re talking $10 to $12 a gallon at the pump in the United States. ............ The beauty for Putin of an energy bomb is that unlike setting off a nuclear bomb — which would unite the whole world against him — setting off an oil price bomb would divide the West from Ukraine. ......... we need a robust energy arsenal as much as a military one. Because we are in an energy war!
