Looks like the Maoists will win a simple majority in the polls, the NC will emerge the second largest party in the country, and the MJF might emerge the largest party in the Madhesh. But this is to be an assembly to write a constitution for which you need a two thirds majority to write any article to the constitution. And that is why an all party government would be a good idea. You need a coalition culture in the government so you can have a coalition atmosphere also inside the assembly so the work on the constitution is largely smooth.
A Case For Prachanda
- Simple arithmetic. The people have spoken. His party has a simple majority in the assembly.
- He has always been a republican.
- He is best positioned to bring about security sector reform which is much needed. He should give Nepal an army that is perhaps 20,000 strong at most.
- Simple arithmetic. Largest party gets presidency, second largest gets speakership.
- She was the speaker of the House after the royal coup.
- She represents many under-represented groups: Madhesi, Mahila, backward caste.
- After the parliamentary elections under the gambit of a new constitution, a party or a coalition will only need a simple majority, but this is different, this is not a regular parliament. This is a constituent assembly.
- An all party government will make it easy to garner the two thirds majority needed to write the articles of the next constitution.
Maoists 50%
NC 20%
UML 17%
MJF 10%
TMDP 2%
Others 1%
The Maoists will want to get to keep the plum portfolios like Home, Defense, Foreign, Finance. But the NC, UML, MJF, TMDP, NWPP, SP, JM all have to be invited into the government. A few of them like the UML and the NWPP might choose to stay away, and that is okay, but they have to be invited nevertheless so there is goodwill among the parties.
How to divide the cabinet portfolios? 50-50 might be fair. Half the cabinet is Maoists, half is rest. Or it might be 40-60 if the UML chooses to stay away.
In The News
Nepal’s Maoists make the world sit up Chandigarh Tribune, India The stunning election victory of Nepal’s Maoists has caught India and much of the world unawares. Neither New Delhi nor the international community had reckoned with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) turning out to be so adept at winning the battle of the ballot. That is not surprising, for few in Nepal, including the Maoist party itself, had foreseen such a development. ..... jettison their pre-election assumptions, revise their policy premises and prepare to engage with the new reality: that the Maoists are in command of Nepal. ..... a unique democratic accomplishment, a Maoist revolution through the ballot box, accomplished in a remarkably short time, with a rebel organisation reinventing itself to emerge at the helm of parliamentary politics. It is a first in South Asia and, perhaps, a global landmark. ..... Nepal is in the throes of a tectonic political shift. .... nothing can now stop the Maoist chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal, alias Prachanda, from becoming Nepal’s first executive president .... he has said Kathmandu would maintain equidistance between India and China.
Nepal's Maoists in stunning polls lead Radio Australia, Australia many analysts, who had expected the former rebels to emerge as the third largest party. .... many regarded more well-established parties as "stale". ..... The Maoist leaders have pledged to cooperate with other parties, and have also said they want to maintain good relations with neighbouring India and China.
Nepal polls: King 'satisfied' over people's participation Times of India, India
Maoist victory march continues in Nepal Sify, India
UML to withdraw from government NepalNews "The election results have shown that we lost our popularity. The people's mandate is against our expectations and there is no point in staying in the government"
Maoists, PM discuss govt formation Himalayan Times CPN-Maoist inching towards a comfortable majority .... forming a post-election coalition government. .... to be led by the CPN-Maoist.
Stung by defeat, NC starts introspection the question haunting Sujata Koirala .... “We were expecting a minor setback, but not this stunning defeat,” she said. .... “The people are demanding change of leadership in all parties, except that of the Maoists” ...... the NC should metamorphose into an organisation-oriented party injecting youth energy into the NC ..... “There is a danger that they might misuse their organisational and governmental strength to bully other parties.”
Re-polling Needed in 98 Centres, Says EC 21 constituencies in 12 districts ..... Saptari-1, Sarlahi-5 and Chitwan-5 on April 15. In Mahottari, Arghakhachi-1 and 2, it will be held on April 16. And on April 17, there will be repolling in Siraha, Sarlahi-5 and Dailekh 1.
Nepal steps down as UML general secretary my moral responsibility for the party’s unexpected defeat in the polls ..... he would remain as a standing committee member ..... The meet decided to call back all UML ministers in the government, citing that it would be “inappropriate” to remain in the government when the people’s mandate went against the party.
Maoists headed for landslide victory; NC, UML sinking NepalNews 89 seats of the total 163 ...... The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) has emerged as a strong force in Terai region. It has won 14 seats. Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) has bagged 4 seats.
Prachanda meets Koirala discussed how the collaboration of the ruling parties could be kept intact until the nation gets a new constitution.
Deuba and Dr. Mahat win Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat won the Nuwakot-2 constituency by bagging 17442 votes. .... Sher Bahadur Deuba won the Dadeldhura constituency by garnering over twenty-thousand votes.
