The State Of Emergency Expires At The End Of April

The general assumption is the state of emergency expires at the end of the month, or at least that is what the constitution says. If it is allowed to happen, it will be to the king's credit. He has been seen as stretching some of the articles of the 1990 constitution. But if he complies with this one, it will be to his credit. If he does not, he reinforces his image of an autocrat fishing in the murky waters of a civil war to aggrandize his personal power base.

After the embarking of the UN monitoring of human rights, this lifting of the emergency will be the second bigget, positive news since 2/1.

Both steps will create space for both peace and democracy. The democrats will have ample space to try and retake the helm after that.

The best thing the king can do for himself, the monarchy, the country and democracy is to comply. I hope he exhibits the tact to do so.

On another note, the Prachanda-Baburam fissure seems to be real and widening. Looks like Prachanda is trying to exapand and consolidate his power base and Baburam is understandably unhappy. The good news is Baburam continues to be relevant and has enough leeway that he feels comfortable penning a letter of dissent that makes it to the public. And the letter gives a pretty good picture of the internal politics among the senior Maoists.

This fissure might end up being the third piece of good news, not because the Maoists are now weaker, but because it shows there is still some democratic, dissenting debate possible among the senior Maoists. That gives room for flexibility. That leaves room for peace talks, this time with UN involvement.

The best thing the king can do: lift the emergency. The best thing the Maoists can do: cooperate fully with the UN monitors, something they asked for.

In The News

• India to resume arms supplies: Nepal King Hindustan Times ..... the monarch claimed New Delhi has promised to resume arms supplies to Kathmandu ...... Sikri made no mention of India's assurance on resuming the arms supplies ...... Sikri quoted Gyanendra as telling Manmohan Singh that the political process in Nepal would be restored "as early as possible".
• Nepal should restore democracy: Manmohan Singh :Team India, India
• What will the King do next?Deccan Herald, India On May 1 — exactly a week later — the three-month state of emergency clamped by the king when he sacked the government of prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and assumed absolute power on February 1 will expire. The question on everyone’s lips is, what will the monarch, a master tactician and planner, do next? ...... he can lift emergency for a short period, even a day, and re-impose it on his own; he can try to give it some semblance of legality by getting a second stint of emergency approved by Parliament; or he can cobble together a new government that will, however, remain loyal to him..... The king can of course convene the upper house — National Assembly — and try to have it endorse an extension of emergency but it will be an uphill task. ....... “There is no provision for the king to head the government. Also, emergency can be imposed only on the recommendation of the prime minister who then has to get it endorsed by Parliament. But the king imposed emergency after dismissing the PM.” ..... likely to proceed exactly as he is now, doing exactly as he pleases.
• India may end arms embargo on NepalEconomic Times, India ..... the Prime Minister and Gyanendra deliberated on the situation in Nepal in a “frank and cordial” manner ..... said his “commitment to multi-party democracy, human rights and rule of law is total and unflinching”.
• Comrade Expresses Note Of Dissent United We Blog severe actions have been taken against Dr Baburam Bhattarai, the face of the party. He is no longer the politburo member. He is not he coordinator of the political front of the party...... In a recent letter addressed to his Chairman, Dr Bhattarai clearly expresses his displeasure and disagreement with Prachanda’s intention of consolidating the power i.e. becoming the chief of all three wings: Party, Guerillas and the Front.

The King Will Only Respond To Internal Pressure

His external isolation is total. And he sounds almost incoherent in his Time magazine interview. He has been feeling the heat. But he keeps on keeping on.

The solution is obvious: a new constitution. But first, restore all fundamental rights. But he will not do it. What could tip the balance? I think internal pressure. People getting out into the streets in tens of thousands. That is what. He keeps thinking or at least trying to create the impression "the people" are on his side. He keeps wanting to take the people along with him. And show massive dissidence will do what no international pressure will.

Two of the biggest questions for now, I think, are: (1) How fast will the UN rights monitors get to work and how much will they be able to enage the two warring forces? (2) Will the emergency be lifted at the end of April?

This regime's signature act has been vigilanteism, in the form of "village defense committees" and the seemingly "constitutional" bodies like the RCCC, which is also vigilanteism by other means.

In The News

• India blinks, Natwar meets Nepal king Times of India, India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is due to meet the king on Saturday, on the sidelines of the Afro-Asian summit.... While the king has freed former PMs G P Koirala and Sher Bahadur Deuba, India has been asking for the release of UML chief Madhav Nepal. India has also asked for the lifting of the emergency and media censorship. ..... For his part, the king "outlined the steps he proposed to take soon to lift the Emergency and restore democratic processes in Nepal"...... the king has won the battle.
  
• 'Not talking to Nepal harmful for India' Times of India .... a government that has identified Left wing extremism as the biggest security threat ...... The re-engagement of Gyanendra will also serve other purposes. It will help India gauge exactly how he means to go forward ...... merely fighting Maoists is not his intention; he wants to revert back to the old absolute monarchy system. ...... He has also achieved minor successes recently, having fended off a United Nations rapporteur on human rights in Nepal.
  
• India, Nepal should return to consultation process: PM Outlookindia.com the Prime Minister said "If I get an opportunity, I will meet the King and convey India's concerns" ..... Nepal is the "closest" neighbour .... The King... proposed to .. soon ..lift the emergency and restore democratic process in the Kingdom..... was committed to returning rule to an elected government although he did not provide a timeframe
  
• Three Nepalese lawyers taken off flight to Delhi:- Webindia123 Laxman Prasad Arryal ... Shambhu Thapa ...Bhimarjun Acharya .... Though they were eventually allowed to board the aircraft, it did not take off as per schedule. Passengers waited for over an hour. Then the three men were asked to get off.
  
• Nepal monarch defends move to seize power Hindustan Times, India .... insurgency-wracked country was on the "edge of a precipice" .... an escalating communist insurgency, which he had blamed on a corrupt government ..... "Terrorism and the self-induced inability of the political parties and various governments to rise to the challenge
• An ex-minister in Nepal grilled like this United We Blog “My Lord. The former minister who is present in front of you now has done corruption ... By not answering commission’s questions, he is obstructing our work. He is not cooperating with us. His intention is not right. He only talks nonsense. If we let him go free, proof will be lost. ..... we should put him in detention for seven days and continue investigation.” ..... scolded the former minister in the room full of media persons and other people in uncivilized manner...... “Oh..so the commission is unconstitutional? Then [to officials] take him and put him behind bar.”
  
• Former PM In Nepal waits to be arrested United We Blog Commission summoned Deuba ordering him to appear by yesterday evening. That didn’t happen. And, as of now (11:00 AM GMT), arrest also didn’t happen. Why? No one knows ..... a new notice was pasted on his home giving him “bato ko myad” (time for travelling from house). His house is in Dadheldura, a far western district of Nepal. The ‘bato ko myad’ depends on how one travels i.e. by feet or by bus or by plane.
  
• It happens only in Nepal! United We Blog the constitution does not allow the king to form such an anti-graft body..... we people should form similar anti-corruption panel and begin probe into Ramesh Nath Pandey, Dan Bahadur Shahi, and king’s henchmen who did corruption during the Panchayati time..... is against the principle of natural justice to form such commission which enjoys authority of investigation, prosecution and punishment....... if the king is commited to curb corruption, will he make the expences of the palace. Why does not he make public the expenses of the palace and the Royal Nepalese Army? Why does not the same RCCC investigate the money that the Deuba-cabinet gave to Helen Shah, a relative of the king?
  
• Internally displaced in Nepal overlooked, neglected, UN Expert ... ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland A public report will be presented to the next United Nations Commission on Human Rights, in Geneva, in March 2006..... the numbers of IDPs in the country are far greater than the roughly 8,000 IDPs quoted by the Government as the official nationwide figure. A large majority of IDPs have not been registered by the authorities because of several factors, including a restrictive registration process, a general fear of IDPs to declare themselves and the movement of many conflict-induced displaced persons across the border into India...... reprisals by the Royal Nepal Army for allegedly providing food or shelter to Maoists (even when this was provided under duress) .....IDPs at risk of increased female prostitution, bonded labour resulting from high debts, increasing child labour, and loss of voting and electoral rights ..... Respect the basic principles of international humanitarian law, in particular the fundamental distinction between combatants and non-combatants and common article 3 of the Geneva Conventions .... (More)
  
• Nepal Bracing For UN Human Rights Monitors Inter Press Service (subscription) Nepal is bracing for an invasion by international human rights monitors in the wake of strong condemnations of its rights record at the 61st session of the U.N. Human Rights Commission in Geneva ..... several dozen international rights monitors under the aegis of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) are expected to arrive shortly to start a monitoring mission ...... ''The U.N.'s goal is to set up regional field offices to ensure rapid responses to violations reports, and to have an advance team of human rights monitors in Nepal by early May" ..... ''It shows the international community will not tolerate any more rights abuses.'' .... The agenda 19 resolution strongly decries the abolishment of democracy and suspension of civil and political freedoms, and urges the royal regime to restore those rights immediately. ..... Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions states that ''persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed 'hors de combat' by sickness, wounds, detention, or any other cause, shall in all circumstances be treated humanely, without any adverse distinction founded on race, colour, religion or faith, sex, birth or wealth, or any other similar criteria''. ...... In a cleverly executed diplomatic move, the international community dangled the threat of the more stringent agenda nine resolution ..... would put it in the league of pariah nations like Burma. .... Though the agenda 19 item passed on Wednesday does not appoint a special rapporteur, all other provisions of monitoring and technical assistance are similar to agenda nine...... ''Full, robust and rapid deployment of the necessary mission is essential...from the outset. For political and financial reasons, it will be difficult to expand it at a later stage, and gradual deployment will enable human rights violators and their allies to develop tactics and strategies to impede the mission" ..... ''Last year, they took us at face value. But we did not implement the promises in sincerity ..... This year's resolution shows that our government has lost credibility and the U.N. is intent on making sure that we implement all resolutions with sincerity.'' ...... ''this is Arbour's first big project after being appointed the High Commissioner for Human Rights last year.'' .... ''This is her baby and she will see to it that the monitoring mission is a success. The Nepal government and Maoists will have little room to maneuver.''