Friday, November 04, 2022

4: Twitter

सी चिनफिङले कता लैजाँदै छन् चीनलाई?



नो नट अगेन ! निर्वाचन आयोगले नैसर्गिक अभिव्यक्ति स्वतन्त्रतासँगै मत–अधिकार वा मत–बहिष्कारको अधिकारमाथि बन्देज लगाउन खोजे पनि सनातनी अलोकतान्त्रिक नेतृत्वलाई ‘नो नट अगेन’ भन्नैपर्ने भएको छ, चाहे त्यो कम खराबलाई मतदान गरेर होस् या मतदान बहिष्कार गरेर होस् वा ‘नो भोट’ को प्रावधान राखेर होस् । ........ कुनै न कुनै रूपमा देउवा, प्रचण्ड, ओली वा नेपालकै फोटोकपी उम्मेदवार हुने र विजयी हुने अवस्था बनाउने गरी उनीहरूले सम्पूर्ण चुनावी प्रक्रियालाई नै अलोकतान्त्रिक कलाबाजीमा सीमित गरेका छन् । सकेसम्म आआफ्ना दलका तस्कर, ठेकेदार, व्यापारी, बिचौलिया र अपराधीहरूबीच मात्रै चुनाव गर्न दिने दुश्चक्र रचेर उनीहरूले आफ्ना असल प्रतिनिधि छान्ने बालिग जनताको मताधिकारलाई नै खुम्च्याइसकेका छन् । जनआन्दोलनबाट स्थापित समानुपातिक समावेशी सिद्धान्तलाई पनि आफ्नो वर्ण–जात–जाति–समुदायकै आफन्त सँगेट्ने, अर्को भाषामा, श्रीमतीदेखि गर्लफ्रेन्डसम्मलाई समेट्ने नातेदारी अस्त्रका रूपमा दुरुपयोग गरिसकेका छन् । यसरी मताधिकार, मतदानद्वारा चुन्ने प्रक्रिया र समग्रमा निर्वाचनको लोकतान्त्रिक अभ्यासकै अपहरणको क्रियाकर्ममा दलपतिहरू कदाचित् सफल हुनुको अर्थ हो— ‘सार्वभौम जनता’ को लोकतन्त्र नाम मात्रैको बाँकी छ । यसमा उनीहरू सफल हुनुको मतलब यस निर्वाचनमा सार्वभौम जनता मुकदर्शक वा मौन अनुयायी (फलोअर) वा निष्क्रिय भोटर हुने करिब–करिब पक्का छ, एकाध अपवादबाहेक । ....... सभापति वा अध्यक्षका कोटको अँध्यारो खल्तीबाट फुत्त–फुत्त निस्केका दलीय उम्मेदवारहरूसँग मतदातालाई दिने कुनै आशा र उम्मिद बाँकी छैनन् । न उनीहरू जनतालाई सुशासनको प्रत्याभूति दिलाउन सक्छन्, न रोजगारी सृजना गर्ने योजना पेस गर्न सक्छन्, न सामाजिक सुरक्षाको अनुभूति दिलाउने वाचा गर्न सक्छन्, न त न्यायिक विकासलाई तीव्रता दिने सपना देखाउन सक्छन् । तिनको क्षतिपूर्तिस्वरूप उनीहरू संघीयता, धर्मनिरपेक्षता, गणतन्त्रकै विरोध चर्काउनेदेखि लिएर हिन्दुत्व र राष्ट्रवादमिश्रित प्रज्वलनशील पदार्थ बेच्नेसम्मका राजनीतिक व्यापारीहरूका पश्चगामी माल बिक्री–वितरण गर्दै छन् । ...... प्रदीप गिरिले राजनीतिक पार्टीहरू विचारधाराका आधारमा होइन, व्यक्तिगत र समूहगत स्वार्थका आधारमा प्राइभेट कम्पनी वा डाँकुहरूका गिरोहजस्तै बनेको खरो टिप्पणी गरेका हुन् । ...... संरचनाको नेतृत्व कुलीन पुरुषको अल्पतन्त्र (ओलिगार्की) का रूपमा क्रियाशील छ । .......... आधुनिक भनिने राजनीतिक संस्थाको आन्तरिक जीवन हेरियो भने लोकतन्त्र पाउन कठिन छ । र, नेतृत्वको चरित्र हेर्नासाथ पुराना परिवारको प्रभुत्वशाली मूलीको भन्दा भिन्न देखिन नै गाह्रो छ । टिकट वितरण, उम्मेदवारको छनोट र जित–हारका लागि अह्रनखटनमा मुलीहरूको हैकमले राजतन्त्रकै शैली पछ्याएको छ । .......... आवश्यकता–बोधको हिसाबले अबको युगका लागि त्यस्तो अभियान वा आन्दोलनको जरुरत छ, जसले भुइँतहका जनजीवनका मुद्दा उठाओस्, जसले आफ्नो जीवनमाथि आफैं शासन गर्ने स्वायत्त संरचना बनाओस्, आफ्नो जीवनलाई लोकतन्त्रीकरण गर्ने संस्कृति थालोस् र फरक–फरक ठाउँमा बनेका सिंहदरबारका कुर्सीमा आसीन र सत्ताकांक्षी सनातनी अलोकतान्त्रिक नेतृत्वलाई पनि विस्थापन गरोस् । राजनीतिक दलबाट स्वतन्त्र उम्मेदवार वा स्वतन्त्रका नाममा आम जनताका अग्रगामी आकांक्षाबाट मुक्त नयाँ दलहरूसँग त्यस्तो लोकतान्त्रिक दृष्टि र जनमुखी लक्ष्य देखिएको छैन, जसले सनातनी अलोकतान्त्रिक नेतृत्वभन्दा झिन्न लोकतान्त्रिक र मानवीय रेखा कोरोस् ।

मधेसको राजनीति: चुनाव जित्न दलहरूको पुरानै फण्डा
अर्बपति चौधरीलाई संसदीय राजनीतिका खेलाडी हृदयेशको चुनौति
‘१७ हजार मत ल्याएर विजयी हुन्छु, कृष्णगोपालजीलाई धन्यवादसहित बिदा गर्छौं’





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Tuesday, November 01, 2022

1: Russia

We Are Very Far From Turning the Page on Trump

Once predominantly white, Fort Bend has quickly become one of the most diverse places in the country....... The county in recent years has become one of the nation’s most diverse, where the former white majority has fallen to just 30 percent of the population.

Do the Democrats Deserve Re-election?



Russia’s Dangerous Decline The Kremlin Won’t Go Down Without a Fight .......... Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a massive strategic blunder, leaving Russia militarily, economically, and geopolitically weaker. ........ Ukraine’s battlefield successes revealed the extent of the rot in Putin’s army—the sagging morale, the declining manpower, the deteriorating quality of the troops. ....... To Putin’s evident surprise, the war in Ukraine has accelerated long-standing trends pushing his country toward decline. Europe is moving to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, diminishing both the country’s leverage over the continent and the government revenues that depend heavily on energy exports. Unprecedented international sanctions and export controls are limiting Russia’s access to capital and technology, which will cause Moscow to fall even further behind in innovation. ...... the more vulnerable Moscow perceives itself to be, the more it will try to offset those vulnerabilities by relying on unconventional tools—including nuclear weapons ........... Already there are signs of struggle in car manufacturing and other major commercial sectors in which Russian dependence on foreign components or parts is especially pronounced. ......... Western sanctions scheduled to take effect by the end of 2022 will block the issuance of commercial insurance for Russian tanker shipments, increasing the risks and costs of Russian oil transactions. ....... Russia has also hemorrhaged some of its best talent, including programmers, engineers, and information technology specialists, which will curtail its future competitiveness. ........ Rather than facing a total collapse, the Russian economy is likely headed toward scarcity, autarky, and a steady decoupling from the global economy. As conditions deteriorate, the Kremlin will grow more desperate, resorting to shadowy or illicit means to get by and flouting the rules that govern global commerce in which it no longer has a stake. The more marginalized and threatened the Kremlin becomes, the less predictable and restrained its behavior will be. ........ The Russian military has been badly mauled in Ukraine. The war has consumed millions of artillery shells and worn out a massive quantity of Russian equipment, from artillery barrels to tank engines. More than 80,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the fighting. Mobilized personnel from Russian-held Ukrainian territories in Donetsk and Luhansk and volunteer fighters make up a significant percentage of the more recent losses, but many of Russia’s best troops were lost early in the war. .......... Mobilization may extend Russia’s ability to sustain the war, introducing a degree of uncertainty to the medium and long term, but it is unlikely to resolve the structural problems in Russia’s military performance. ......... Russia is likely to find ways around the Western restrictions, especially given the difficulty of enforcing them. Moscow may not be particularly good at producing its own substitutes for imports, but it has a knack for skirting Western export controls. After its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia, despite an array of sanctions, still managed to maintain access to Western-made parts for many of its weapons. ......... Russia remains a leader in integrated air defenses, electronic warfare, anti­satellite weapons, submarines, and other advanced systems. ....... There is a reason Russia features so prominently in the wars of the past several hundred years: the country frequently uses, misuses, and eventually restores hard military power. ......... They allege that Russia is fighting NATO in Ukraine and that the United States and Europe are out to break Russia apart. ...... His grip on power is weaker now than before his decision to call on Russians to prolong his misguided endeavor. ......... Unless there is significant turnover among the ruling elite in conjunction with Putin’s exit, Russia’s confrontational posture will endure. ........ disinformation and propaganda have contributed to decisions by leaders in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East to remain neutral or circumspect in the aftermath of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. ......... Russia’s political leadership might well consider limited nuclear use if faced with the kind of defeat that could threaten the regime or the state. ......... Notably, China is also modernizing its nuclear arsenal. As a result, the United States will find itself dealing with two unconstrained nuclear powers, both focused on the United States as the primary threat. ....... The United States alone has sent more than $45 billion in assistance. ........ Russia’s war, at its core, is an imperialist endeavor rooted in the still unfolding collapse of the Soviet Union. ....... it is unlikely that Moscow will seek to rebuild the same military, with its brittle force structure, weak training, and anemic logistical capacity. ....... A European army would have been forced off the field long ago if it had taken even a fraction of the casualties suffered by the Russian or the Ukrainian armed forces. ......... Kremlin has shown that it is far more interested in imperialist revanchism than in strategic stability ......... Constraining Moscow will also require Washington and its European allies to sustain their engagement with India and other fence-sitting countries in Africa and the Middle East that continue to provide a lifeline to Russia. This will mean paying greater attention to the global South, where Russia enjoys greater influence and is able to contest the narrative. ........... Strategic cultures can change over time, including in response to dramatic defeats. .......... The U.S. government should actively assist the Russian exile community, including journalists, activists, and other Russians who support a freer and more democratic Russia, by providing U.S.-based professional fellowships for persecuted human rights defenders and journalists, for example, and addressing shortcomings in the implementation of anticorruption and sanctions policies that cause collateral damage to oppressed civil society actors. ........ the old adage that Russia is never as strong as it looks or as weak as it looks ........ The country often goes through cycles of resurgence, stagnation, and decline. .



Coups in the Kremlin What the History of Russia’s Power Struggles Says About Putin’s Future ........ Russian President Vladimir Putin has lost touch with reality. He has declared a partial mobilization to reverse his defeats in Ukraine and, signaling his desperation, ratcheted up Russia’s nuclear saber rattling. Each day the war drags on, his country grows more isolated from the rest of the world. Increasingly, Russia depends on China to keep its economy from collapsing under the weight of sanctions, even as Chinese leaders express doubts about the invasion. Russia’s failure to take Kyiv, and its recent reversals in the Kharkiv region in eastern Ukraine, have led even pro-Putin commentators to question his decisions.

The World According to Xi Jinping What China’s Ideologue in Chief Really Believes

‘हेभीवेट’ उपेन्द्रसामु चुनौतीका चाङ मधेस प्रदेशमा सबैभन्दा बढी ‘प्रेसर’ सप्तरी–२ रहेको छ । ....... जनमत पार्टीका अध्यक्ष सिके राउतले समेत उम्मेदवारी दिएपछि सो क्षेत्र निकै चर्चामा रहेका छन् । ....... सप्तरी–२ मा ९५ हजार ३९४ मतदाता रहेका छन् । १५ हजार मत यादव समुदायको छ भने २३ हजार मत मुस्लिम समुदायको छ । यी दुवै समुदायमाथि उपेन्द्र यादवको पकड रहेको छ । ....... ‘सत्ता गठबन्धनका उम्मेदवार जयप्रकाश ठाकुर र जसपा–एमाले गठबन्धनका उम्मेदवार उपेन्द्रबीच प्रतिस्पर्धा हुँदैन । सप्तरी–२ उपेन्द्र यादव र सिके राउतबीच प्रतिस्पर्धा हुन्छ’ ....... प्रतिस्पर्धा ठाकुर र यादवबीच होइन, राउत र यादवबीच हुने देखिएको छ ।’ उनले सप्तरी–२ को अवस्था ‘क्रिटिकल’ रहेको

Do the Democrats Deserve Re-election?
Their America Is Vanishing. Like Trump, They Insist They Were Cheated.
Will One Tuscan Port Stall Italy’s Drive for Energy Independence?
War in Ukraine Likely to Speed, Not Slow, Shift to Clean Energy, I.E.A. Says
A Compromise on Immigration Is Possible. This Bill Could Make It Happen.
We Need to Rethink How to Adapt to the Climate Crisis
Beyond Catastrophe A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View
Sydney
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