YouTube: September 27

China

Can Macron Lead the European Union After Merkel Retires? Emmanuel Macron, the French president, would love to fill the German chancellor’s shoes. But a Europe with no single, central figure may be more likely. ......... The German chancellor, though credited for navigating multiple crises, was

long criticized for lacking strategic vision

. Mr. Macron, whose more swaggering style has sometimes ruffled his European partners — and Washington — has put forward ideas for a more independent and integrated Europe, better able to act in its own defense and its own interests. .......... But as the Anglo-American “betrayal” in the Australian submarine affair has underscored, Mr. Macron sometimes possesses ambitions beyond his reach. Despite the vacuum Ms. Merkel leaves, a Macron era is unlikely to be born.......... an authoritative, well-briefed leader who quietly managed compromise and built consensus among a long list of louder and more ideological colleagues. ........ Mr. Macron has argued forcefully that Europe must do more to protect its own interests in a world where China is rising and the United States is focusing on Asia. His officials are already trying to prepare the ground on some key issues, looking forward to January, when France takes over the rotating European Union presidency. .......... “Macron’s leadership is disruptive, and the German style is to change institutions incrementally” ....... Europe must be less dependent on Washington and spend at least a little more in its own defense ........ “We’re closer to Germany than to France, but without all the ambiguities on Russia and China.’’ ........ A new German chancellor is expected to win only a quarter of the vote, and may need to negotiate a coalition agreement among three different political parties. ........ “She kept in mind the interests of so many in Europe, especially Central Europe but also Italy, so that everyone could be kept on board.’’ ......... willing to bend to keep the bloc together, as evidenced by her support for collective debt, previously a German red line, to fund the coronavirus recovery fund. ......... Germany is still responsible for more than half of Chinese trade with Europe.’’ ...... “You can’t have fiscal and defense integration by stealth,’’ he said. “It won’t have legitimacy and won’t be accepted by citizens.’’

For India’s Military, a Juggling Act on Two Hostile Fronts Tensions with China and Pakistan stretch a cash-starved military, while the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban removes a potential ally.’ ......... In the past year, it has tripled the number of troops in the contentious eastern Ladakh region to more than 50,000. It has raced to stock up on food and gear for freezing temperatures and 15,000-foot altitudes before the region is largely cut off for much of the winter. It has announced that an entire strike corps, an offensive force of tens of thousands more soldiers, would be reoriented to the increasingly contentious frontier with China from the long, volatile border with Pakistan. ...........

It is stuck in a two-front conflict with hostile neighbors — and all three are nuclear armed.

........ And it comes as India increasingly finds itself isolated in its broader neighborhood ...... China has made investments and inroads from Sri Lanka to Nepal. The victory in Afghanistan by the Taliban, a movement nurtured and harbored in Pakistan that has increasing ties to China, has essentially shut out India from a country it saw as a natural ally in the regional balance. ..........

Even if all-out war on its borders is unlikely, the sustained posture is sure to bleed India financially.

.......... The breakdown of trust between the giant neighbors is such that a dozen rounds of talks since the deadly clashes last year have contained the tensions, but they have not resulted in de-escalation.

Both nations are likely to remain on war footing, even if they never go to war.

............ “Galwan carried another message: that China was not respecting the agreements it had signed,” General Malik said. “The biggest casualty in Galwan, to my mind, was not that we lost 20 men, but the trust was shattered.” ............

About 75 percent of defense expenditure goes to routine costs such as pensions, salaries and sustainment of force.

In 2020, India spent about $73 billion on the military, compared with China’s $252 billion. ........ India and China have not been able to agree on the specific demarcation of the 2,100-mile frontier referred to as the Line of Actual Control. Indian officials say their Chinese counterparts have been reluctant, preferring to keep the border’s uncertainties as a “pressure tactic.” ........

The clashes last year were a blow to Mr. Modi, who has focused on developing a formula of mutual prosperity with China.

........ Since Mr. Modi took office, the leaders of the two countries have met nearly 20 times .......... On one of Mr. Modi’s five trips to China, Mr. Xi welcomed him with a Chinese ensemble playing a Bollywood soundtrack from the 1970s as the prime minister clapped and grinned. ......... eastern Ladakh, where China has terrain advantage — the Tibetan plateau makes moving troops easier — and better infrastructure on its side of the border. ........ It transports hundreds of tons of matériel every day to not only sustain 75,000 troops guarding against Pakistan and China, but also to stock up for six months of winter when many of the roads close. At the Siachen Glacier — referred to as the battleground on the roof of the world — Indian forces have maintained a face-off with Pakistan for more than three decades. .......... During last year’s clashes, India benefited from an element of luck, since the tensions escalated during warmer weather. “Had this happened sometime in September, we would have to fly in troops. That was the only option, because the passes have ice over it — 40 foot of ice” ............ 48 items of specialized gear, 18 of which — such as snow clothing, snow boots, alpine sleeping bags, ice axes — are critical

Power Outages Hit China, Threatening the Economy and Christmas High demand and soaring energy prices have forced some factories to shut down, adding further problems for already snarled global supply chains. ........ Power cuts and even blackouts have slowed or closed factories across China in recent days, adding a new threat to the country’s slowing economy and potentially further snarling global supply chains ahead of the busy Christmas shopping season in the West. ..........

The outages have rippled across most of eastern China, where the bulk of the population lives and works.

....... Mr. Xi risks getting tagged for problems as well as successes. He has moved strongly to quell any opposition within the Communist Party and has extended its reach into more sectors of Chinese life. If people in China begin to point fingers, there are few others to blame. ....... Overall industrial use consumes 70 percent of the electricity in China, led by the mostly state-owned producers of steel, cement and aluminum.

Beyond Evergrande’s Troubles, a Slowing Chinese Economy Investors are watching whether the property developer defaults. But in the background, the world’s No. 2 economy is flashing numerous warning signs. ......... Retail sales were much weaker than expected last month in China, led by slow car sales. Industrial production has slackened, particularly for large freight trucks. And developers sharply reduced new housing projects over the summer, while rushing to finish the projects they had already started. Heavy government spending on new rail lines, highways and other projects is keeping the economy afloat right now, but may not be sustainable through next year. .........

the broad weakness in China’s property market, a mainstay of the economy, and other long-term threats

. ........... Letting Evergrande collapse quickly, on the other hand, risks a broad fall in apartment prices or other potentially unforeseeable shocks to the financial system. .......... Evergrande’s 1.6 million unfinished apartments .......

Construction companies and manufacturers all over the world tend to stop buying large trucks when they see trouble ahead.

Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, used to cite the strength of the freight truck manufacturing industry as one of his favorite predictors of the health of the American economy. .............. heavy truck production and heavy truck sales plummeted by nearly half in August from a year earlier. ........... Truck dealerships across China are now clogged with rows of unsold trucks. ........ After construction and government spending, the auto industry is one of the biggest sectors of the Chinese economy .......... Economists in China note that the Chinese government has more ability than most to set interest rates and control large movements of money in and out of the country. “China,” said Mr. Xu, of Deloitte, “still has a lot of tools.”

North Korea Dangles Hopes for Summit and End-of-War Declaration Kim Jong-un’s sister responds to the South Korean leader’s last attempt to put the peace process back on track, but skepticism abounds. ............ North Korea would consider holding a summit meeting with South Korea and declaring an official end to the Korean War if the South can restore trust with it ........ Mr. Moon insists that if all major participants in the war — the two Koreas, the United States and China — together make such an end-of-war declaration, it could build confidence on the Korean Peninsula and help the North move toward denuclearization. He sees the end-of-war declaration as a trust-building “political” gesture before negotiating a legally binding peace treaty. Fighting halted in a truce in 1953, leaving the peninsula technically in a state of war. .......... if the South restored mutual trust between the two Koreas, “​​several issues for improving the relations,​”​ including ​the end-of-war declaration and an inter-Korean summit, can “see meaningful and successful solution one by one at an early date” ............ peace could take root on the peninsula only ​when South Korea and the United States terminated their joint military exercises and ​American troops ​and weapons were withdrawn ​from the South. .........

The North’s real aim might be to extract aid from South Korea as a reward for starting negotiations for a possible summit

........ “​It’s not wise to read too much into Kim Yo-jong’s conciliatory remarks and​ become too optimistic.”

A Tour of China’s Future Tiangong Space Station A new outpost for astronauts will soon be finished in orbit: China’s new Tiangong space station, or Heavenly Palace. Tiangong will be able to support three astronauts, or up to six people during crew rotations. ....... Astronauts will conduct research in biotechnology, microgravity and space materials science. ....... The Tianzhou-1 can carry 6 tons — the approximate weight of an adult elephant. ........ The finished station will be smaller than the current International Space Station, which typically hosts a crew of about six or seven astronauts.

What a Fungus Reveals About the Space Program One thing’s for sure: Escaping the dung heap doesn’t come cheap. ........ Four decades ago the space shuttle was going to make space travel routine and cheap, almost as uneventful as a trans-Atlantic plane flight. Then 14 astronauts died.