Sunday, November 24, 2013

One Madhesi Party Needed



The Madhesi parties have but one option left, and that is to become one party. If they don't go in that direction, they will fare worse in the next election than they did this time around.

How to unify the parties?

Step 1: For a unification committee. That would be composed of the top leaders, Gachhedar and Bharat Bimal, Hridayesh Tripathy and Mahantha Thakur, Mahendra Raya Yadav, Upendra Yadav, Rajendra Mahto. Seven would be enough. If your party did not win a seat, you don't sit on the committee, pure and simple. Make Mahantha Thakur the Sarbamanya Neta, and Gachhedar gets to be party president. Upendra Yadav and Rajendra Mahto can be Vice President. All seven get to sit on the party Politburo.

Then form a 31 member convention committee. There bring in the top leaders of all parties that got at least 20,000 votes. Hold a convention, preferably by April 2014. All office bearers until then are ad hoc. Conduct a massive membership drive. Come up with a new name for the party, a new party flag, a new election symbol, all of which will have to be approved by the general convention.

And that would be the way to go.

The convention committee should also include Janajati leaders, perhaps also people like Ashok Rai.

If this much work is done, and a unification convention is held and one unified party is thus born, the resulting party will easily emerge as the third or fourth largest in the country and will go past 25% strength in the next parliament. That party would ride the anti-incumbency wave in the local and state elections that will likely be held in less than two years. The party would bring forth several Chief Ministers.

The unified Madhesi party should have reservations in the central committee for Dalits, Muslims and women.

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Three Governments In Four Years

Prachanda Portrait
Prachanda Portrait (Photo credit: izahorsky)
Total Seats: 601
Nepali Congress 214
UML 205
Maoist 94
Kamal Thapa 33
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 10
Others 7
Nominated 26 (Give 10 to the Baidya group)

NC (214) + Maoist (94) = 308
UML (205) + Maoist (94) + Madhesi parties (23) = 322
NC (214) + UML (205) = 419
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + NC
Maoist (94) + Kamal Thapa (33) + RPP (16) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 197 + UML
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + NC
Maoist (94) + Gachhedar (11) + TMLP (10) + Others (7) + Baidya (10) + Nominated (16) = 148 + UML

Political arithmetic shows the Maoists could come into power at least six different ways. In several such scenarios the Maoists could even be leading the government. Nepal has a tendency to get a new government every year. If this parliament is to last four years and the government changes every year, the Maoists could be in power for two of the four years. That is a distinct possibility.

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