Good Options For Maoists And Madhesi Parties

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Getting Nepal a new constitution before 2014 is over is the most important task at hand. All other issues are secondary. Country before party, now and always. That has to be the goal of the NC and the UML. That also has to be the goal of the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.

The way things are shaping up, it might be possible for the NC to form a government that includes the Maoists and the Madhesis. I am simply pointing out the political arithmetic. There is a silver lining to the wide margin defeat of the Maoists. If the margin had been less wide, a NC-UML two party government would have been a foregone conclusion. But because the margins are wide and there was no pre-poll alliance between the NC and the UML, a NC-Maoist-Madhesi government also looks possible.

Or you could form a NC-Maoist government, and give the presidency to Mahantha Thakur and the speakership to the UML. Nembang, anyone?

Sushil Koirala for PM, Narayan Kaji or Mahara for DPM, Mahantha Thakur for president, Nembang for Speaker.

Both sides have to be flexible on the federalism question. I think we might be looking at about four states in the Terai and another four states in the Hills/Mountains. 30 Madhesi parties that have not been able to become one party do not have a moral right to talk about a single Madhesh pradesh, not anymore.

The two Maoists should unite. What will bring them together is a vision that Nepal will be made a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. How many votes you get in a national election will decide how much money you get from the state. And a party will have no other source of income. That agenda should be enough for the Baidya group to stop dreaming of another revolution.

All Madhesi parties should immediately start the exercise of launching a single Madhesi party.

If the two Maoist parties become one, and if the 30 Madhesi parties become one political party, these two parties will be the prime beneficiary of the local and state elections that will be held in perhaps April 2015. They will ride the anti-incumbency wave then. People like Hridayesh Tripathy who lost this election will show up as Chief Ministers perhaps.

That is the best bet for the Maoists and the Madhesis.

The most important lesson though is that the three million Nepalis who have been kicked off the voter list need to be brought back onto that list. That should be the number one gripe of the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, and they should do something about it.

It is easy math. There are 30 million people in Nepal. More than half of Nepal is less than 30 years old. Which means roughly half of the population is of voting age. So if there are 15 million Nepalis of voting age, and only 12 million were on the list, that means three million were disenfranchised. And those three million were mostly of the DaMaJaMa background. Which means most of those three million would have voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties.

The entire country and all parties have to work to get those three million onto the voter list. It's just wrong to disenfranchise people. In a country where elections are won and lost by a few thousand votes routinely, and often times with a few hundred votes, the impact of kicking three million people off the voter list can not be exaggerated.

A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML
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A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML

Looks like the NC and the UML are on their way to forming a two party government. That will be interesting to watch. The two are neck and neck right now. So there's no telling who will be Prime Minister.

But the two parties will not get a two thirds majority. And so that leaves plenty of room for the identity federalists to have a say on the question. The two sides of the debate should fully express themselves, and then they should forge a compromise.

It would be best for the peace process if the NC and the UML acted generous and elected Prachanda as the president. Or they might go ahead and give Ram Baran Yadav another term! If the PM and DPM will be Pahadi, might as well have a Madhesi president.

Local and state elections have to be held by April 2015. If the Maoists and the Madhesi parties do their homework and learn their lessons, the electoral pendulum might swing their way then.

What homework can they do?

Prachanda and the Maoists to not have the option to get out of the process now. In that direction lies a dead end. They should continue to be part of the process. It is true that the status quoists in the bureaucracy and the judiciary have been staunchly against the identity federalists, and messing up with the list of voters was one rabbit they pulled out of the hat. The Maoists and the Madhesi parties might still have lost, but the margin of loss would not have been so dramatic.

Hridayesh Tripathy's radically gerrymandered electoral district is proof the Election Commission is status quoist.

There is still a stark need for a Truth And Reconciliation Commission so we can put the Civil War firmly behind us. That is necessary work.

The two Maoist parties should unite. And the recipe for that unity would be an attempt to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded political parties. That would be a welcome attempt at classlessness. That move would turn Nepal into the top democracy on the planet, that also would signal that there is no more revolution in the future, there are only elections.

All the Madhesi parties should become one political party. To sing the song of One Madhesh, One Pradesh is hypocritical when you are split up into 30 different parties. And the way to do that is to organize a unity convention. If this move is made, that unified Madhesi party will do well in elections that will surely take place in over a year. That is not far.

The most important task right now is to give the country a constitution within a year. To that end all political parties must work, winners and losers alike. Electoral tally aside we are all winners. The country is about to get a legislative and an executive. The political vacuum is about to go away.

It is to be seen if Sushil Koirala or Jhalanath Khanal becomes Prime Minister. The two get the PM and the DPM and the cabinet. It would be generous to give the presidency to Prachanda or to Mahantha Thakur. That would make constitution making smoother. Because you still need a two thirds majority for the sticky issues. It would be smart for Prachanda to propose Mahantha Thakur's name. In a democracy, the majority rules, but it does not get to rub the nose of the minority in the dust.

I have a feeling we might be headed towards four states each in the Terai and the Hills. There is a danger the NC and the UML might overplay their hands and misread their simple majority for a two thirds majority, and we might end up seeing street action. That would be unfortunate. Compromise has to be the name of the game. Neither side will get all it wants. That knowledge has to be the starting point of the negotiations.

Also give six of the 26 nominated seats to the Baidya Maoists. That was a profound idea Prachanda came up with before the elections. That would be a small price to pay to keep the two Maoists part of the process.