Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Upendra Yadav: Fourth Pole?


Turning The Federal Alliance Into An Electoral Alliance
Ram Baran Yadav Is Not An Executive President
Federalist Alliance, Democratic Alliance, Left Alliance
Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat (2)
Why Federalism Bothers Ram Sharan Mahat
Limited Options

Bid to form federalists' alliance intensifies
Although the ruling coalition leaders said some other parties, including Upendra Yadav-led Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum-Nepal would join their alliance, Yadav hinted otherwise. “First they should clearly define who are federalist forces and who are not. They should also come up with their model of federalism,” Yadav said. He said the government cannot hide its weaknesses and misrule in the name of federalist alliance. “Corrupt and smugglers should not be given immunity in the name of federal alliance. Government should not prolong its tenure in the name of an alliance,” he said.
Upendra Yadav is not going to join the Congress-UML alliance. And he does not seem eager to join the Maoist-Madhesi alliance. Is it because the thought of accepting Bijay Kumar Gacchedar's leadership is proving too much for him? Or does he not have the skills to enter the Madhesi alliance and take over its leadership? Or does he think he is better off creating a fourth pole in Nepali politics? Or perhaps it is plain inflexibility on his part? Or there will be room for opposition Madhesi parties in the Terai provinces down the line perhaps? Word is organizationally he is still strong. But how strong? The 2008 saw the MJF at its peak. I don't think it is possible he is even half as strong by now. It is entirely possible he is not playing his cards right. He does not know how to challenge Gachhedar's leadership.

Govt's days are numbered: Yadav
Coming down heavily on the UCPN-Maoist, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, Yadav charged that most inclusive Constituent Assembly was dissolved without promulgating a new constitution due to their irresponsible behaviour. .... The Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum Nepal leader went on to say that so-called big three parties lost peoples’ trust due to their irresponsibility. He accused them of deliberately murdering the Constituent Assembly to deprive rights to the indigenous, Janajatis and Madhesi people. ..... On federal system, Yadav said the country must be federated in such a way that guarantees the rights of Madhesi, indigenous and marginalised communities. “The country has to be carved out to ensure the marginalised communities’ rights by ending the unitary state system,” he added. ..... Yadav said the new federal set-up should protect social, cultural and ethnic identity of every community and group in the country
Bhattarai govt like previous ones is discriminatory: Yadav
Never before the formation of the Baburam Bhattarai led government, had Madhesi leaders occupied such prominent positions in the Cabinet, but for Upendra Yadav, Chairman of Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum-Nepal, this government is no different from the discriminatory ones in the past. ...... He said the Bhattarai government was ‘a most autocratic regime’ which promoted ‘undivided Far-West campaigners, but brutally suppressed Madhesi protesters in Morang, Saptari, Parsa and other Tarai districts in the run-up-to May 27. He was addressing the group of Madhesi journalists who have been staging hunger strike since Tuesday to press for inclusion of Madhesis in newsrooms and Madhesi issues in news content, at Madhes Media House . ..... “Only those firmly committed to the Madhesi cause can protect the rights of Madhesis, not more Madhesi faces in the Cabinet,” Yadav said. ..... “Major media outlets hardly cover Madhes issues and whenever they do, they sensationalise, distort or fabricate the issues,” Yadav said adding that Madhesi journalists’ struggle for inclusion was part of the greater revolution of Madhesi emancipation for which his party would always fight. .... Unified CPN-Maoist leader Binod Pahadi, a member of the dissolved Constituent Assembly regretted that despite a series of movements and ethnic protests, the media sector was still under the grip of a certain communities
Madhesi parties in bid to form single entity
Scorned by Madhesi voters and well-wishers for failing to prevent splits and fragmentation, Madhesi parties are now seriously trying to form a powerful Madhesi party with the aim of preventing the major parties, particularly the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, from taking advantage of the fragmentation of the Madhesi forces....... Although Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum-Nepal Chairman Upendra Yadav, has rejected the idea of joining the initiative again, the proponents, however, believe such a process would yield positive results soon. “I cannot tell when we will form one powerful party, but we have done some groundwork on this. Even if other Madhesi parties do not come forward, we are in favour of merging MJF-D and TMDP. Once we do that other parties will be compelled to join us,” said Jitendra Dev, spokesperson for MJF-D. ....... Although party leaders declined to divulge details of the merger modalities, sources privy to the latest developments of the unity talks said there was a possibility that Thakur could be made paramount leader of the unified party whose approval would be necessary for all party decisions and Gachhadar could be made Executive Chairman of the party. The proposed model could also have two to three post of Joint Chairman to accommodate some chiefs of other Madhesi parties. ..... “Our political slogans are the same and there is no reason why we cannot be united,” said Jitendra Dev, spokesperson for the MJF-D. Sources said second rank of the leaders of other Madhesi parties are in favour of merging their outfits but chiefs of some parties are averse to the idea because they believe they would not get the exposure they are getting now. Chairman of a Madhesi party, who is a minister, said forming one powerful party was not possible. ..... MJF-N Chair Upendra Yadav said the Madhesi parties that were in the government had no organisation in Madhes and were talking of unity to secure their future in the next elections. “Madhesis view Madhesi ministers with contempt for their mistakes, lust for power and disregard for Madhes issues,” said Yadav

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Turning The Federal Alliance Into An Electoral Alliance


What could be the formula?

I don't see the Congress and the UML suddenly seeing light. What will happen instead is they will continue to talk nonsense, their Madhesis and Janajatis will break away from them to form the Janajati party. The two will see major infighting among the leftover factions. And both will be reduced to Praja Parishad sizes after the next election.

The point being turning the Federalist Alliance into an electoral alliance is a task whose time will come soon enough. So might as well prepare.

The Maoist party gets to keep all constituencies it won in the last election minus those whose winners are now in the breakaway party. This includes much of the hills as well as the western Terai.

Whether or not the Madhesi parties succeed in unifying is a big if. That would change things fundamentally. That unified Madhesi party would get every seat won by any Madhesi party in the last election. And if they can't unify they get to keep the seats they won minus the seats of people who broke away.

So each party keeps the constituency that it won minus the people who broke away. Even where people broke away, the party gets to keep about half the seats.

For the leftover seats the Janajati Party is given priority in the hills. And so in all those other constituencies in the hills it is a three way race between the Congress, the UML and the Janajati Party.

In all those constituencies in the eastern and the central Terai that neither the Madhesi parties nor the Maoists won the last time the constituencies are divided 2:1 with two going to the Madhesi parties and one to the Maoists such that it is a three way race between the Congress, the UML and someone from the Federalist Alliance.

How many votes a party won in the last election has to be taken into account while allocating tickets. Because there are some small parties that won no direct seats but sizable votes.

Even if the Congress and the UML end up doing a similar thing and end up not contesting against each other anywhere that helps the Federalist Alliance. It is like when Yahoo and Microsoft team up on Search, Google's share of the search market expands even more.

With this you end up with the Federalist Alliance securing at least a two thirds majority in the next constituent assembly. That is what is needed to not put up Congress-UML nonsense. Baburam Bhattarai should continue as Prime Minister.

And the Federalist Alliance should rally behind Prachanda when it is time to elect an executive President, which could happen within a year of the assembly elections. A non Maoist should be made Vice President, a Madhesi or a Dalit or a Mahila or a Janajati. I'd love to see a Dalit there.

The Act Of A Potential President

The alliance must continue all the way to state and local elections so as to smoothen the institutionalization of federalism in the country. The Janajati and Maoist parties get to do well in the hills and in western Terai. The Madhesi parties get to do well in eastern and central Terai.

Of course the whole task becomes so much the easier should all Madhesi party merge and become one party.

How To Build A Unified Madhesi Party
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