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Nepali Congress ruled the country after 1990 for the most part and it was so because it stayed strong in the
Terai, electorally speaking. The UML had a rather small presence in the Terai. And parties like the Sadbhavana did not make much headway because the thinking was that if you voted for the Congress, you can get work done later, because the party will be in power. That incumbency factor was of a huge advantage to the Congress.
But that is no longer true after the last election. The Congress by now is half the size of the
Maoist party. And it shows no signs of getting into power. The
incumbency advantage now has shifted to the
Madhesi parties.
The Madhesi parties are going to have to forge an electoral alliance. Like the
Left Front and the Third Front in India. They are going to have to not contest against each other. If they could do that they would do really well.
That is not to say the Maoists will not compete against them. The Maoists might try and secure a full majority on their own. I don't see it happening, as in I don't see them securing a majority on their own. If they are wise they'd forge a pre-poll alliance with the Madhesi parties to secure power post-poll.
And so you might look at a scenario whereby the Madhesi parties sweep the
Madhesh, and the Maoists do well in Tharuwan and the hills and mountains. The Congress fights a losing battle against the Madhesi parties in the Madhesh. And the UML fights a losing battle against the Maoists in the hills.
The Maoists and the Madhesi parties currently stand at about 50% strength. After the next election they might end up with 60% if they make the right pre-poll moves.
The NC and the UML have shown their true colors through their stances on federalism. The truth is they never really accepted the idea of federalism. And the people have to punish them for that.
Republica:
SRC report of majority to be accepted: DPM Gachchhadar
He even criticized the CPN-UML and Nepali Congress (NC) for being anti-autonomous states. The members of the UML and NC who submitted the separate reports have done so against the ethics, Gachhadar said. The separate report submitted by the NC and UML follows the panchayat style, he said. He also claimed that NC and UML have presented such report as they are strictly against United Democratic Madhesi Front.
