Monday, May 03, 2010

An Appeal To The Maoists


2005 was a politically complex year for Nepal. The year started out with three forces at loggerheads. The three forces were all at cross purposes. The royalists imposed a dictatorship. The Maoists were waging a violent struggle for one party rule. The democratic parties were squeezed by both. The business at hand was to get the royalists out of the way, and that could come about if the other two camps could join forces, and the other two camps could not join forces as long as the Maoists kept waging a violent struggle for one party rule. That violence had to come to an end first, and a political road map had to be agreed upon. The big parties like the Nepali Congress and the UML were opposed to the idea of a constituent assembly. But that was the only meeting ground. And that is what came to be. But first the Maoists needed to cease violence.

I argued that the Maoists needed to declare a ceasefire.

Prachanda, Order Your Cadres To Live

They did.

After Ganapathy, A Ceasefire
For The First Time In A Decade, Permanent Peace Feels Possible

Then it was but expected that the royalists will try to get them to break that ceasefire.

Militarists Attempting A Doramba Repeat To End Ceasefire

It still made tremendous sense for the Maoists to continue with the ceasefire, and they did.

Prachanda, Extend The Ceasefire By Three Months

That is what made talks between the Maoists and the democrats possible. And then the onus shifted to the democrats. Unless they agreed to the idea of a constituent assembly, there was not going to be an alliance with the Maoists. They reluctantly agreed.

The alliance happened. And that prepared ground for the historic April 2006 revolution. That revolution could not have come about without the alliance.

The reason I am talking the history of 2005 is that has lessons for today.

Just like the Maoists went for the unilateral ceasefire back in 2005, they should now unilaterally declare they are for a constitution that will turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties, that they are for an ideological fusion of the two competing political ideologies of the past century, and that after that there will be no revolution, only elections. They should steer their movement towards that goal. Change of government has to become a secondary concern.

Once Nepal is turned into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties where the book keeping of all parties is public, transparent, you can achieve land reform peacefully. You win elections, pass bills in the parliament.

Power flows through the ballot box. Power does not flow through the barrel of a gun. But power only flows through the ballot box if Nepal is turned into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties.
  1. All parties agree to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. The Maoists declare there will be no revolution after that, only elections. 
  2. Form a national unity government of the 10 largest parties in parliament in Baburam Bhattarai's leadership. Come up with a common minimum program. 
  3. Extend the constituent assembly's term by six months. 
Prachanda's Second Big Mistake?
The Peace Process Is At Its Most Fragile
Nepal Seeing Major Political Crisis
A 10 Party Government In Baburam Bhattarai's Leadership

Prachanda's Second Big Mistake?


What was Prachanda thinking? That he will get 50,000 Maoist cadres to come over to Kathmandu from the districts, and the common people in Kathmandu will join forces and next thing you know there are half a million people in the streets like during April 2006? For him to ever have thought that goes on to show that this guy has no clue as to what happened during April 2006.

The Madhav Nepal led government will be toppled through parliamentary arithmetic, and that parliamentary arithmetic will never come to be if Prachanda does not make it clear he understands how coalition governments are run. Coalition governments are run through the consent of all coalition partners.

Prachanda seems to think the Maoists central committee gets to make all final decisions in the country. The Maoists central committee decides who will be in power, who will not be in power. The Maoist central committee decides who will be Prime Minister. The rest of the parties need to do what the Maoist central committee decides has to happen. That thinking drives the other parties away. That thinking is what brought down the Prachanda led government in the first place. For him to continue with that thinking and expect a new Prachanda led government take shape is daydreaming. It is politically immature.

Prachanda's last big mistake was to abandon his coalition partners and bypass the office of the president to try and sack the army chief who retired on his own a few months later. His latest big mistake we are seeing in action right now. You don't have a movement. You have 50,000 Maoist cadres having free food.

His showing zero flexibility on as to who might lead a possible national unity government makes extra sure that such a national unity government will not get formed in the first place.

But the real issue is not just about changing the government. The real issue is the ideological clash between the Maoists and the rest. That ideological clash is not being addressed by either camp. The solution is to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. That step has to be preceded by making sure all parties make their book keeping public. Why will not the Maoists go for that?

The Peace Process Is At Its Most Fragile
Nepal Seeing Major Political Crisis
A 10 Party Government In Baburam Bhattarai's Leadership