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What Next For The Madhesi Movement?

What Is Gachhedar Thinking?
The Implications Of A Split In The MJF
The MJF Must Stay Intact

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Analysis

Due to the high level of political consciousness achieved by the Madhesi population due to two Madhesi revolutions and one Tharu revolution, the political future of the Madhesi population is no longer tied to any particular political party. No party, be it the Madhesi parties, or the Maoists, UML, NC, can do business in the Terai without being respectful of the aspirations of the Madhesi people. Due to the Madhesi revolutions, the Madhesis already have almost proportionate representation in the parliament, although that proportionate representation has not yet extended to the other state organs more permanent in nature. Federalism has not been achieved yet, but it is on schedule. The Madhesi MPs are becoming ministers.

The vertical split in the MJF is a blow to the Madhesi movement, sure, but it is only a momentary blow. It does not undo the political consciousness achieved through the

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Madhesi revolutions.

You could argue the MJF unity became victim to the left, non-left polarization in the country, but then it is hard to argue the UML is a non-left party.

The Madhesi political leaders have failed to deliver whereas the Madhesi population has delivered time and again over the years. It is not always easy to see if it is Madhesi disunity in play, or the regular parliamentary, democratic arithmetic in motion.

The Glass Is Half Empty

The MJF split is a near fatal blow to the Madhesi movement. The idea of Nepal having a directly elected Madhesi prime minister or president has been pushed away at least a few election cycles. The disunity and discord will only continue. Both MJF factions will see major defeat during the election next year, and neither the TMLP nor the Sadbhavana will see growth. The three Pahadi led parties will come in to fill the vacuum. The ruling coalition after the election next year will exclude all the Madhesi parties because they will all be too small to matter. The Madhesi political leaders will be out of power for about four years after next year.

The idea of a party led by a Madhesi also growing in the Pahad that the MJF had made possible to an extent is temporarily out the door.

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The Glass Is Half Full

A split in the MJF means now the two MJF factions are about the same size as the TMLP, and the Sadbhavana is almost half as big as the TMLP. Now it is not at all obvious that if all the Madhesi parties were to unite and become one party then the leader of that party will be Upendra Yadav. In this scenario it has become more not less possible to push the idea of one unified Madhesi party. A party convention would decide on the leader. Let the democratic process decide.

Disarray

The reality might not be as neat as either. Not only the Madhesi parties but Nepal as a country is headed for a decade or so of political fragmentation and political paralysis. There is a lot of side drama in the political sphere, but there is no decisive positive surge for the country as a whole.

The Maoists And Multi-Party Democracy

Many factors come into play. But there is one thing more than any other that turns the tables on political progress. The Maoists must work extra hard to convince all powers foreign and domestic that they are for multi-party democracy for the long haul. They have to do that

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if they want to see progress on security sector reform, federalism and land reform.

Another Maoist, MJF Wave?

Maybe the Gachhedar faction has no mass base. It is possible that the Yadav faction will see a surge next year. One scenario is that the Maoists and the Yadav MJF see a surge during the election next year and form a ruling coalition of the two parties to last a four year term.

A Directly Elected President

We are not about to become a two party state. No one party is about to gain a majority on its own. In that scenario having a directly elected president is extra important to achi

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eve political stability.

An All Party Government In Six Months?

If this government were to collapse and make room for an all party government under Prachanda's leadership, would the two MJF factions unite or still stay separate? That is an intriguing question.

But for that all-party government to be possible, Prachanda might first have to clean house. How about expelling some hardliners from the party?

In The News

Madhesi parties to send names by today Kantipur Online While Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) and Sadbhavana Party-Anandidevi (SP-A) narrowed down differences after hours of negotiations, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) appeared to be in complete disarray. ....... For Deputy Prime Minister Bijay Kumar Gachhadar, who leads a splinter group of MJF, selecting his ministerial candidates appears to be a tough job for the simple reason: Most of his supporters are still volatile. ......... “There are chances that Gachhadar may lose his lawmakers if he fails to take a consensus decision and appease all aspirants” .......... In a meeting with his lawmakers, Gachhadar received more rebuff than support for his proposed list of ministers: Mrigendra Singh Yadav (Agriculture and Cooperatives), Sawai Dev Ojha (Women, Children and Social Welfare), Sarat Singh Bhandari (Tourism and Civil Aviation). Jitendra Dev, Asha Chaturvedi and Karima Begam were also figured in his list. ....... Gachhadar is likely to offer one post to “newcomer” R.C. Yadav, who defected from Upendra Yadav's faction. ......... TMLP has three ministerial portfolios -- Education, Industry and Youth and Sports -- and two state mi-nisterial positions. ....... Rajendra Mahato will join the Cabinet as Minister for Supplies while Laxman Lal Karna will accompany him as state minister.
Prachanda's dilemma Telegraphnepal.com Prachanda’s days in his own party remain numbered as he neither is in government nor the party’s structure remains in his grip. ..... Prachanda knows well that if his party were to survive then he must invent some schemes that unendingly weakened the current shaky coalition led by shaky Prime Minister Mr. defeated Nepal. ..... Mr. defeated Nepal’s government will not last longer. The government may collapse of its own weight and the needed extra weight will be put on place by the Maoists. ..... “I will be back in Singh Durbar after the end of the Nepali festivals”. ..... Nepalese festivals begin October and end around November. ..... Khanal is on record to have recently said that “We need a national government which must see the participation of the Maoists”. ..... both Prachanda and Khanal favor the formation of a broader Communist Front and rule the nation for all time to come. ..... Sujata only the other day advocated in favor of the Maoists and said that “without the Maoists in government, the new constitution can’t be drafted”. ..... The pretty humiliated Upendra Yadav, the erstwhile founder president of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, by default, has freshly associated himself with the Maoists. ..... Upendra Yadav is basically a MJF leader with Maoist soul. ..... Hard liners in his party, like Mohan Vaidya Kiran and Netra Bikram Chand, have been encouraging him to capture the state through the use of the streets and violence. ...... Prachanda though wants to bounce back to power through democratic means, however, his colleagues, for example, Dr. Bhattarai, Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal, Lila Mani Pokhrel, and Giriraj Mani Pokhrel have been encouraging Prachanda to go in for a fierce movement and turn the movement into a revolt and later capture the State once and for all. ..... Some even claim that the hardliners want to depose Prachanda in the process. ..... Those who want the people’s Revolution to commence at the earliest are in the majority in the party. ..... Thus Prachanda has his enemies’ right inside his own party.
Poor Nepal Kantipur Online
Politics of inclusion Republica
Poudel crushes Deuba Republica Deuba was not to be seen at the election venue when the election results were out. ....... Koirala cannot contest the post of party president at the next general convention and there is no credible candidate from the Koirala family to step into his shoes. ..... While the Deuba faction had pressed to hold the election Sunday, the Poudel faction insisted that it should be held the same evening.
Baidya slams Dahal over national unity govt "To float the concept of a national unity government again is to form another puppet government; it is nothing short of a surrender to regressive forces" ...... In his political document, Dahal opined that it would be in the best interests of the party to continue with protests in the streets and in parliament and push for a national unity government in two or three months´ time. ........ After Dahal presented his paper on Tuesday, the hardliners had met at Thapagaun in Kathmandu to chalk out their strategy, party sources said. They have argued that the ground is now ready for the Maoist party to capture state power through a "people´s revolt".
UDMF meeting put off for Sunday
Maoists for indirect election of executive prez
Waiting on Mr. Nepal After nine months of poor statecraft, coarse language, absence of accountability, unwillingness to push the constitution-writing, and willingness to maintain their private combatant force intact, it was the attempt to break the chain of command in the national army that unravelled the government. That attempt brought the entire political firmanent together to petition President Ram Baran Yadav, who decided to annul the unilateral decision by the Maoists in cabinet to sack COAS Rookmangud Katawal. ...... winning elections by breaking limbs, diverting state funds to buy arms, ideologically infiltrating the military, and misrepresenting matters to claim nearly 20,000 combatants in place of 7-8000. ..... a mix of money, state power and threat of violence. ........ The Nepal Army did conduct a dirty war during the conflict period, and accountability and justice must be sought for excesses committed. That is a separate campaign, not to be confused with the Maoist attempts to shake the military´s foundations as a way of achieving ´state capture´. ....... As for the President´s action, the fact that the matter is before the Supreme Court is irrevelant for a party used to having its way with the fist. ......... Jhala Nath Khanal has proved a reluctant supporter of his own party in government leadership. ....... the third leg of the Maoist strategy in opposition is to adopt the ultra-nationalist, anti-India stance ...... Nepal has become a trouble spot where Indian bureaucrats and politicians wade in to ‘set things right’ ........ Far from being a responsible opposition, the Maoist party today acts like a wounded carnivore, one that has been deprived of its all-consuming need for state power. ........ an all-party national unity government led by the Maoists as the largest party in the Constitutent Assembly is the only alternative if the UML-Congress-Madhesi coalition fails to stick. ........ Mr. Nepal, Mr. Koirala and Mr. Bijay Kumar Gachhedhar .......... If the three fail, we will have to turn to an all-party national unity government in the hope that the Maoists who will lead it are more restrained.