If the parliament will not bring forth a new government - either a majority government or an all party government - by the deadline - tomorrow - there will be but one option left: presidential rule. The president will have to go ahead and declare an emergency.
After six months the parliament will have the option again to bring forth either a majority government or an all party government.
Three Big Advantages
The president gets to run the country. He need not assemble his cabinet from inside the parliament. He can assemble a team of technocrats.
The political parties and the parliament get to work on a new constitution, which is what they were elected to do in the first place.
The country gets a taste of an executive presidency which is what we should shoot for in a new constitution. We don't need a new government every year. We want a directly elected president who stays in power for four years.
The right way to sack Katuwal would have been this.
Get all parties in power to agree to the idea. But if they don't agree to it, then don't go for it.
But if all parties in power would have agreed to it, Prachanda still needed to send that decision to the president.
The president then would have had the option to send the decision back to the cabinet for reconsideration.
The cabinet - with all party agreement - could then have sent it back to the president all over again saying they still stand by it.
At that point the president would have had no option but to forward the letter to the army chief who would then have been duly sacked.
Prachanda's Two Big Mistakes
He did not seek the consensus of his coalition partners.
He did not go through the president. He bypassed the president.
Who Apologizes?
President Yadav has nothing to apologize for. His job is to protect the constitution, and he did that.
Prachanda already apologized by resigning. So there is no need for him to apologize again.
What next?
Form a new government.
That can be an all party government, or it can be a simple majority government.
Having a simple majority government does not mean we will then automatically lack the two thirds majority needed for work on the new constitution.
Writing a new constitution is separate from running a government.
Who Will Lead?
Technically speaking Prachanda can lead again. Technically speaking Baburam can lead. But politically speaking it makes no sense for the Maoists to lead. They already tried and failed.
A new leader from a new party needs to come forth. I see a consensus building around the Madhav Nepal name.
The Maoists will have the option to join that government or support it from outside.
The UML, the NC, the MJF, the TMDP, and the SP must be part of the new government.
The UML should lead. The Maoists have the option to join or not.
First Priority: Law And Order
The new government is going to have to domesticate the YCL. That organization may not engage in use of force. Period.
The Maoists have a right to peacefully protest, but they are barely one third of the parliament, they don't get to prevent the formation of a new government.
Katuwal
I hear he is scheduled to be out within months. That might be the best way to let him go.
The Maoists might have tried proving in court instead that he is way past retirement age.
In The News
PM Dahal meets Koirala NepalNews Koirala asked Dahal to cooperate in forming a government of national consensus. Dahal on his part said he would consider the proposal. ...... Dahal also tried to allay fears of NC leadership regarding the controversial videotape containing his speech during a close-door training to PLA commanders one and half years ago. ...... He had headed straight to Koirala residence after attending his party's politburo meeting held at Bhaktapur. ...... NC leaders Sher Bahadur Deuba and Krishna Prasad Sitaula were also present at the meeting. Prez consults CA chairman on procedure of appointing new PM there is no other way of appointing a PM except taking the issue to the parliament ...... Maoists CA members have disrupted the proceedings of the House for two consecutive days Maoist politburo for more protests to revert President's move Both the parties need support from Madhesi parties to garner majority for the new government. Madhesi parties have sought consensus on their agendas in return for their support. ..... On Wednesday, caretaker Prime Minister Dahal claimed the new government would also be under his party's leadership. 'UML leadership for unity govt has already been agreed upon' said it's certain that the next government would be led by UML and what is being awaited now is a formal decision of the UML with the nomination of its leader, who will become the Prime Minister. ...... the Maoists should be part of the new coalition, but they cannot take the leadership. ...... Madhesi parties, whose participation or support is a must for the new ruling coalition to take shape, are yet to make their positions clear Minister Yadav issues 'death threat' against journo Maoists threaten cadres of other parties in Siraha Crisis with a Silver Line They have publicly and unequivocally avowed that their ultimate goal remains to convert Nepal into a people’s republic. The ruling coalition partners and opposition parties were deeply worried about it. Excesses of the Young Communist League, a Maoist outfit, have always been a cause of serious concern for other parties and the public. YCL members engage in preventing and disrupting activities of other political parties and in killing and maiming their opponents. ........ the neutrality of the civil service, police and intelligence was being dented by stuffing Maoist loyalists and supporters in senior posts ........ Maoists were trying to undermine the judiciary’s independence by cowing the courts to give verdicts of their liking. The military brass was under enormous pressure to integrate into army ranks the 19,000 Maoist combatants living in the 7 UN-monitored cantonments. ......... Children cannot go to school; the sick cannot go to hospitals; and employees cannot go to their jobs. People are forced to live in dark, because there is power outage of more than 12 hours every day. There is no petrol at the gas station, no running water at the tap, no cooking gas in the store. ......... Investors are looking elsewhere to invest. ..... The dismissal of the army chief was the last straw that broke the patience of UML ....... UML walked out of the government in protest and pulled the crisis’s trigger. ....... But they cannot govern, and the Maoists will make sure of it by churning the streets and by disrupting the house ........ you cannot possibly leave the largest party in the house – they have 238 seats out of 601 -- out of government altogether if you are serious about writing the constitution, whose approval requires a two-thirds majority. .......... if the Maoists have been a problem player in the government, they could prove a nightmare out of it. ........ a government that commands at least a two-thirds majority in the constituent assembly. A government of simple majority should be the last option.
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