Saturday, April 12, 2008

Prachanda Gets To Be Nepal's First President



Right now it looks like the Maoists might be able to win a simple majority on their own. But such a conclusion might be premature because we have not heard yet from the Madhesh. We have to wait for the election results in the Madhesh. The MJF will likely do well, but perhaps not as well as they thought they might.

Right now these look like the trends.

Maoists 40%
NC 20%
UML 15%
MJF 10%
TMDP 7%

This is what I am guessing right now. I think the old parties underestimated the people's desire for a republic back in November and December.

Prachanda gets to be Nepal's first president, but I don't think he would be interested in being a ceremonial president, and what are the chances the country will go for an executive presidency right away? I mean, it could.

The assembly could abolish the monarchy and then create an executive presidency right away. That would be the best thing to do.

The three Madhesi parties are still a mystery. I eagerly await the results in the Madhesh. Why are they delaying the vote counts in the Madhesh? Is it because the Pahadi bureaucrats fear the impact of good news for the three Madhesi parties?

All Party Government: Recommended

Prachanda should become an executive president, and form an all party cabinet. A party's presence in the cabinet should be in direct proportion to its presence in the assembly.

Security Sector Reform

Prachanda as executive president should be in a great position to enact the security sector reform that the country so sorely needs.

US, Lift The Tag

The US should lift the terrorist tag on the Maoists immediately.

Sushil Koirala, Madhav Nepal Resignations

That is the spirit, that is the democratic spirit.

Now We Know

These elections were necessary to clean the deck. Noone knew which parties had mass bases and which did not. Now we know.

Turn Nepal Into A Multi-Party Democracy Of State Funded Parties

The Maoists must take the lead on this one. We do this and Nepal becomes the number one democracy on the planet. Nepal becomes the country that exports democracy, not America.

The First Major Revolution Of The 21st Century Happened In Nepal
The French Revolution And DFNYC

Land Reform

So very necessary.

Chitralekha Yadav: Speaker

If a Pahadi Bahun is going to be president, a Madhesi, backward caste Mahila should get to become Speaker, as the NC will likely emerge the second largest party.

Madhesi Alliance Mistake

They refused to ride the wave of the Madhesi Movement victory. They should have gone for a 50-30-20 formula, 50 for MJF, 30 for TMDP, 20 for SP. They would have swept the Terai.

But don't count them out yet. We have not heard yet from the Madhesh. The UML got routed by the Maoists in the hills, the MJF will rout the Congress in the Madhesh.

I hope the MJF emerges at least the second largest party in the country. In that case, a MJF person gets to be Speaker.

26 Districts, 71 Constituencies

Out of 75 districts and 240 constituencies. We have not heard yet. The people of Madhesh have not spoken yet.

पाँच बुँदा, पाँच चुनाव
Proposed Constitution
Mantra: Economic Revolution

A Clear Victory

This has been a clear victory for the Maoists.

In The News

Dr Bhattarai wins in Gorkha-2 with largest margin NepalNews Bhattarai secured 35,119 votes, the biggest score of individual candidates so far, defeating his closest rival Chandra Prasad Neupane of Nepali Congress by a wide margin of over 30,000 votes. Neupane is Bhattarai's maternal uncle....... CPN-M has taken the constituency-1 of Gorkha district. .... CPN-M's Parwati Thapa defeated Chiranjivi Wagle, a former minister and central member of NC.

Maoists expect clear majority Kantipur the Maoists will be the largest party, with a clear majority ...... “People were longing for new thinking and new leadership and they wanted the Maoists for the implementation” ...... attempts were made from “other quarters” to deceive the people by trying to establish that the agenda of federal republic and constituent assembly was that of the other parties as well. “However, the people did not believe this and they wanted Maoist leadership for the implementation ....... Dr Ram Baran Yadav, general secretary of the Nepali Congress (NC), stated that early poll results have the democratic forces worried.
New poll dates published for eight constituencies Saptari district-1, Sarlahi district -5 and Nawalparasi ...... Mahottari .... Dailekh district-1, Chitwan district-5, Sarlahi district -6 and Siraha
Carter Center calls election remarkable and well executed
Victorious Prachanda says he is committed to co-ordinate with other parties He also stated that he will strive to maintain a cordial relationship with the international community.
Maoists lead with 27 seats; NC win 7, UML 6, NWPP 2, MPRF 1 (8:00)
माओवादी पक्षमा जनलहर मत गणना थालिएका ७० भन्दा बढी स्थानमध्ये माओवादीले तीन दर्जनमा अग्रता कायम गरिरहेको छ । कांग्रेस र एमाले करिब एक-एक दर्जन क्ष्ँेत्रमा मात्र अघि छन् । मधेसी जनाधिकार फोरम ५ र तर्राई-मधेस लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टर्ीीक स्थानमा अग्रता लिएका छन् । ...... रौतहट, सुनसरीलगायत तर्राईका जिल्लामा समेत माओवादी उम्मेदवार अग्रणी प्रतिस्पर्धामा देखिएका छन् । राजधानीमा पनि उनीहरूको बलियो उपस्थिति देखिएको छ । ..... कांग्रेसको पकड रहेका चितवन, दाङ, कञ्चनपुरलगायत जिल्लामा माओवादी निकै प्रभावशाली देखिएको छ । .... झापामा गृहमन्त्री कृष्ण सिटौला, चक्र बा“स्तोलालगायत नेताहरू पनि मतगणनामा पछि परेका छन् । सुनसरीमा कांग्रेस नेतृ सुजाता कोइराला मधेसी जनअधिकार फोरमका अध्यक्ष्ँ उपेन्द्र यादवभन्दा निकै मतले पछाडि छिन् । ..... कांग्रेसका नेता शेरबहादुर देउवा डडेल्धुरा तथा कञ्चनपुर दुवै क्ष्ँेत्रमा अगाडि छन् । डडेल्धुरामा मत अन्तर केही बढी भए पनि दुवै क्ष्ँेत्रमा माओवादीले टक्कर दिइरहेका छन् । तनहु“-२ मा रामचन्द्र पौडेल मुस्किलले ...... झापामा एमालेका केपी ओलीले पनि बलियो अग्रता लिन सकेका छैनन् । ..... काठमाडौं-२ मा एमाले महासचिव नेपाल मगतणना सुरु भएदेखि नै पहिलो स्थानमा आउन सकेका छैनन् ।
एमालेलाई धक्का

SPA and Coalition Govt to Remain Intact: Prachanda Himalayan Times He also claimed that his party would lead the country by bringing in peaceful revolutions in new sectors.
Maoists Take Lead As MK Nepal, Bamdev Gautam Lose
EC Orders Re-polling in 60 Centres the majority in the eastern and central Tarai region. ..... booth capturing, damaging and torching of ballot boxes and papers were some of the reasons ......... vote counting of 71 constituencies in 26 districts was in progress as of this evening
Re-polling info as of Friday evening:
Districts Constituency Number of booths
Saptari 1 & 2 2 & 1, respectively
Sarlahi 6 8
Mahottari 3, 4 & 5 6, 4 & 2, respectively
Siraha 2, 3 & 5 4, 6 & 1, respectively
Chitwan 5 12
Nawalparasi 3 1
Nuwakot 1 5
Arghakhanchi 1 & 2 4 &1, respectively
Baglung 3 1
Dailekh 1 2
Total 16 60
Maoists spring a surprise, take initial lead Nobody, even the media and intelligentsia, had expected that the Maoists ..... Dr Baburam Bhattarai said it was only “natural,” and not surprising as described by other parties, mainstream media and the international community." .... “The agenda of constituent assembly, republic and federal structure of governance all are our agenda,” Dr Bhattarai ...... “If this trend continues till the last moment, the Maoists could have a simple majority,” Prof Khanal said. ..... the young generation, which accounts for around 35 per cent of the total voters ...... The major political parties, which did not go to the people for the past nine years, could not read the mindset of the young generation ...... Singh polled 14,318 votes, more than twice as much the votes that Nepal secured from Kathmandu Constituency 1.

Maoists bag 27 seats; NC win in seven and UML win in six constituencies NepalNews The latest vote counting in nearly 120 constituencies show that Maoist candidates are leading in five dozens of them; while NC and UML are leading in two and one and a half dozen, each, respectively. ..... The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) is leading in seven and Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) is leading in four
Fall of giants taking its toll; Sushil Koirala announces resignation as NC acting prez Surya Bahadur Thapa lost to Hariraj Limbu of Maoists from Dhankuta-2 constituency
Number of centers needing re-polling reaches 75
"We want to continue working with parties and the int'l community," says Prachanda the nationwide sweep of the election by the party of former rebels ..... "We will work together with not only the seven parties but also the new parties that will be established through this election ....... "Our commitment on multi party democracy has been expressed through this election as well"
MK Nepal announces resignation as UML gen secy taking responsibility of the unexpected defeat of the party, as well as his own ...... during an informal meeting of the central committee ...... Nepal has been heading the UML since past 15 years.
Chairman Prachanda triumphs in Ktm-10 as his party takes initial lead a huge vote margin ..... secured 20,499 votes, almost double ...... Krishna Bahadur Mahara from Dang 3, Dev Prasad Gurung from Manang-1 and Pampha Bhusal from Lalitpur-3. Senior Maoist leaders Ram Bahadur Thapa (Badal) and Dr Baburam Bhattarai are also ahead in their constituencies in Chitwan-2 and Gorkha-2 respectively and are expected to win with considerable margin.
Counting stalled in Birgunj In the meantime, a bomb exploded inside the compound of the vote counting building in Birgunj. Unidentified persons hurled the bomb from outside the compound and ran away.
CA polls met international standard: EU
Khum Bahadur Khadka loses; Ananta emerges victorious
Maoists take Dhankuta-2, Bardiya-1; NC's Suprabha Ghimire wins in Ktm-4
Maoists appear set to sweep the polls, UML crushed in initial results Proving the pre-poll analysis and predictions of many analysts and media wrong, Maoists appear set to sweep the polls as shown by the initial results of vote counting from several parts of the country. ..... The Maoists have made major inroads into the Kathmandu valley constituencies. ...... The valley used to be a stronghold of UML in past elections. ..... Reports coming from across the country show that Maoists are leading in over 40 places while NC and UML are leading in around dozen each. ..... Dang, Bardiya, Kanchanpur, Maoists are leading in most seats. Same is the case in Kavre ..... In Chitwan, Maoists are leading in three out of five constituencies. In Jhapa, they are leading in five out of eight constituencies.

CPN-M's Dev Gurung wins in Manang district NepalNews
Maoists taking lead in most places the Maoists are leading in over 30 places while NC is leading in half a dozen places. ...... In Banke, NC acting president Sushil Koirala is still trailing behind Madhesi Janadhikar Forum candidate while KP Oli is leading behind a Maoist candidate in Jhapa district.

Nepal celebrates peaceful vote as results trickle in AFP
Nepal Elections Bring Hope TIME nearly 65% of the nation's voting population had exercised their franchise .... —one candidate was gunned down, an eight others were killed in factional fighting—only 33 of 20,882 voting stations nationwide reported that polling was disrupted. ..... The Maoists consider themselves the chief catalysts of Nepal's transformation .... The restive lowland plains that border India still smolder with ethnic unrest. Nepal's economy is a shambles .... An estimated 10,000 women who leave each year end up as sex workers in Indian brothels, and that number is now skyrocketing.
Nepal Begins Tallying Votes The Associated Press
Maoists Performing Better than Expected as Nepal Counts Votes
Voice of America The Maoists, who were expected to do well in many rural areas, are making a better-than-predicted showing in some urban districts.
Nepal election: Maoists emerge major force Times of India, India the guerrillas were emerging as giant killers in some while sweeping the electorate in the west. .... The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), once the second largest force in the country after the NC, were routed ruthlessly, paying dearly for their failure to have reached a poll alliance with the Maoists.... the east where two debutant ethnic parties are expected to challenge the supremacy of the ruling alliance. ..... the Maoists were leading in three Kathmandu seats, including constituency two, considered a UML fortress from where UML chief and deputy PM Madhav Kumar Nepal himself was contending. .... A little-known Maoist candidate Jhakku Prasad Subedi was leading convincingly, causing stunned disbelief among the ruling parties. .... The remote districts in western Nepal, the "land of the disappeared" where the decade of "People's War" led to a stunningly high number of disappearances, arbitrary arrests and extra-judicial killings by security forces, rejected the traditional parties to embrace the Maoists. .... In Banke, the Maoists were leading in one seat with two others favouring the new ethnic party, the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum. ... The debutant party was poised to humble in seat 3 Sushil Koirala .... The Maoists were also leading in seats in Makwanpur and Nawalparasi.
Nepal`s Maoist Party Likely to Gain Majority South Korea

Vote count continues; three major parties head-to-head Kantipur Nepali Congress, CPN-Maoist and CPN-UML—are in a three-way competition. ..... CPN-Maoists, have been leading in most constituencies including in the capital, while putting the biggest leftist party of earlier elections at third position. ..... preliminary results in the capital, where the UML had its stronghold in the last parliamentary elections in 1999, have been suggesting otherwise than what was estimated. .... Maoist candidates are at the top in districts including Palpa, Bardiya and Dang.
निर्वाचन भव्य र शान्तिपर्ूण्ा

There will be repolling at 60 centers: EC NepalNews 60 polling centers of 16 constituencies in 10 districts. .... vote counting of 71 constituencies in 26 districts is in progress
NC, CPN-M candidates leading in most constituencies in Kathmandu Prachanda is leading in constituency no 10 with 2459 votes till press time (5:20 pm).
NC candidates leading in most Kathmandu constituencies
Maoists take lead in Bardiya, Dang CPN-Maoist is leading in all 4 constituencies of Bardiaya district, which is traditionally a Nepali Congress stronghold. ... Maoists are leading in three constituencies in Dang district ..... In constituency-1, CPN-M's Indrajeet Chaudhary is ahead of NC's Khum Bahadur Khadka.
Maoists taking lead in Mid-West Maoists are taking lead in all four constituencies of Bardiya and five constituencies of Dang ..... In Banke, candidate of Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, Sarvadev Ojha is taking lead in constituency-3, leaving behind Nepali Congress vice-president Sushil Koirala. Koirala is in third position, behind Devendra Burma of CPN-Maoist. ..... The Mid-Western Region, which has 33 constituencies, was strongholds of the Nepali Congress in previous election.
Maoists leading in Lalitpur-3; NWPP likely to win both seats in Bhaktapur
MJF doing well among terai-centric parties, leads in two constituencies in Banke Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) was doing well in Banke district where it is leading in two out of the total four constituencies. .... MJF candidate Ishtiad Rai is leading in Banke constituency-2 with 723 votes to Maoist candidate Ahatarshushan Pharuki's 189 votes. Similarly, another MJF candidate Sarvodev Ojha has taken a massive lead in constituency-3 with 2312 votes. His closest rival Parma Nanda Kurmi of CPN-Maoist is trailing with 828 votes. ..... the Mahata Thakur led Terai Madhesh Loktatric Party (TMLP), is leading in Kapivastu constituency 3. ...... Dhanusha, Mahottari, Parsa, Rautahat, Saptari, Sarlahi and Siraha where the terai-centric parties are expected to perform well.

दाङमा ७ माओवादी मारिए Kantipur
आज ऐतिहासिक निर्वाचन

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Permutations And Combinations


पाँच बुँदा, पाँच चुनाव
Proposed Constitution
Mantra: Economic Revolution

Next Government

Scenario 1: An all party government: not very likely. The largest party gets the prime ministership, the second largest gets the ceremonial presidency, the third largest gets the speakership, the fourth largest gets the deputy speakership. The cabinet positions are in direct proportion to each party's weight with the smallest parties getting one each.

Scenario 2: No party gets more than 20% of the votes. You will need three or more parties to come together to form a government.
  • It could be the UML, NC and the three Madhesi parties.
  • It could be the UML, the Maoists and three Madhesi parties.
  • It could be the UML, the NC and the MJF.
  • It could be the NC and the MJF.
  • It could be the UML and the MJF.
Scenario 3: It is one of the above, but the government lasts only a year. A new combination takes shape in a year.

Recommendation

An all party government is highly recommended. You will need two thirds majority for each article to the next constitution anyway. A simple majority does not get to write the constitution. So if there is an all party government, it will become easier to do the work on the constitution.

Largest Parties

The UML might emerge the largest party in the hills and the MJF might emerge the largest party in the Terai. That is what I am guessing right now.

20%

I have a feeling no party will get more than 20% of the votes cast. It will most definitely be a hung assembly.




In The News

Nepal decides today Himalayan Times 17.6 million voters eligible to cast votes in over 22,000 polling booths • More than 3,900 from 55 parties in fray for FPTP ...... Under PR system, there are a total of 5,701 candidates from 54 parties.
First result expected tomorrow: CEC results could be expected from Friday and added that the tentative position of the parties would be clear within 10 days.

चुनाव निष्पक्ष भए ठूला दल जा“चिने Kantipur
माओवादी आक्रमणहरूमा ६८ कार्यकर्ता घाइते तीनजना अपहरित, १९ बेपत्ता

Nepal Prepares for End of Monarchy Time
Fear and voting in the Tarai Nepali Times At 33, Ajay Gupta has come a full circle. After starting out as a Sadbhabana activist, quitting the party when Badri Mandal and Anandi Debi split, winning the royal municipal elections to become Gaur mayor as an independent, allegedly encouraging the massacre of Maoists last year, and joining the TMLP for two months, Gupta has returned to Sadbhabana as their candidate for Rautahat 1. ........ Gupta’s bright prospects represent a change in electoral dynamics from Rautahat to Sunsari over the past two weeks. Madhesi parties are finally picking up steam, with more active campaigning. They are making inroads in most seats in the eastern Tarai. The question is, can they capitalise on it in the last three days? ..... The MJF was relatively strong, but the TMLP and SP are also picking up. For its part, NC is facing an uphill battle in most areas of its traditional vote banks in the eastern Tarai, especially in Dhanusha, Siraha, Saptari and Sunsari. ..... Jwala is trying to patch up with Goit’s group. And royalists are threatening more blasts to provoke communal violence. ............ Singh was a student at Delhi’s JNU, and after the king’s coup of 1 February 2005 introduced Nepali political exiles to the Indian bureacuracy. From messenger, Singh soon became a player in talks between Koirala, Prachanda and India. ...... Thakur will win easily.
After 4/10 The electoral violence in the Madhes could have been a lot worse. Violations of the code of conduct are within South Asian norms. ..... Armed groups are reconciled to polls. ..... there will be almost 115 Madhesis in the PR list and tentatively 60-70 elected Madhesis through FPTP. ..... It is time to think of a Madhesi chairing the constituent assembly. ...... The most important battle will now be the shape of the federal structure. ..... leaders are already competing to become the first chief minister of the Madhes.

YCL rampage unrelenting Kantipur the YCL workers attacked and injured Nepali Congress (NC) candidates in Puythan and Nawalparasi districts. ..... In Nawalparasi too, Maoist cadres at Kawasoti attacked a jeep that NC candidate of constituency 3, Omkala Gautam, was riding, injuring her as well a half a dozen NC cadres. The Maoist cadres, following the attack, also flipped over the jeep on the highway and vandalized six motorcycles used by NC cadres. Later, when police reached the site, the Maoists turned on them, injuring two of them, police said.
Baburam threatens takeover in 10 minutes
Maoists ready to accept any outcome of CA polls: Prachanda The party also claimed that opposition parties had conspired to defame the party and its youth front, Young Communist League, by highlighting “minor” incidents.
UML chief says, Maoist obstructive activities ongoing fearing defeat Nepal called on all not to be disheartened by the exhibit of weapons.
पौडेलको सभा बिथोल्ने प्रयास
सबै परिणाम आउन दर्ुइ साता लाग्ने
चुनावी सभामा गोली प्रहार
उम्मेदवार अपहरित
दलहरूबीच द्वन्द्व, सुरक्षा कमजोर
थापालाई अवरोध

CPN-M will accept poll result: Mahara NepalNews

मधेसी उम्मेदवार कम Kantipur कांग्रेसले संविधानसभाको कुल २ सय ४० प्रत्यक्ष सिटमा ५० -२० दशमलव ८३ प्रतिशत), एमालेले ६६ -२७ दशमलव १९ प्रतिशत) र माओवादीले ७२ जना -३० प्रतिशत) मधेसी मूलका उम्मेदवार उठाएका छन् ... तर्राई मधेस लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टर्ीीतमलोपा) ले ८ दशमलव ५१, मधेसी जनअधिकार फोरमले ६ दशमलव ७९ र सद्भावना पार्टर्ीी ५ दशमलव ७४ प्रतिशत पहाडी मूलका उम्मेदवार उठाएका छन्
सहमतिबिना सेना परिचालन हु“दैनः यादव मन्त्री यादवले आफू वास्तविक मन्त्री नभएको र वास्तविक मन्त्री गिरिजा र सुजाता रहेको बताए