November 22: Elections Must Happen

The elections can not be postponed one more time. Once was too much.

But the Maoists are right with their key demands. I agree with them wholeheartedly. The country should be declared a republic, and there should be a fully PR election.

How do you reconcile these threads?

Middle Ground: PR Election Now, Republic Later

The Maoists are acting responsible. Their soldiers are in cantonments and will stay there. They continue to be part of the eight party alliance. They have not walked out of the peace process. And their protest programs are all peaceful and legitimate in a democracy.

I think the thing for them to do is to work the parliamentary arithmetic more than they want to work the street protests.

Armed Revolution To Street Agitation To Parliamentary Arithmetic

If they want to do business with the UML, they must publicly apologize to the UML on a few issues. They should publicly say the UML was right and they were wrong when the UML wanted a referendum on the monarchy before going for the elections to a constituent assembly. The UML was also right when it initially argued in favor of a fully PR election.

More important, the Maoist leaders must publicly apologize for some recent incidents where local Maoists beat up some local UML leaders.

And the Maoists should be seen publicly courting Deuba. That guy has almost 50 votes in the interim parliament.

The Maoists may go ahead with their protest programs, but if they don't couple that with public acts of actively trying to work the arithmetic in the interim parliament, they risk acquiring the public image of spoilers.

If the Maoists want to disrupt the November 22 polls, all they have to say and do is declare they are not going to take part. Without them taking part, the November 22 polls will be meaningless.
They have that kind of power. But should they use it? I think not. If they use that option, they are going to suffer from a serious slide in the country. Their base would shrink.

They are right about their two key issues. But they have to remember to act responsibly.

How to act responsibly?

Koirala Has Only 85 Out of 330

You do the very best you can to work the arithmetic in the interim parliament. You also carry out your protest programs. But if you can't work the arithmetic in the interim parliament, you call it quits, and you do go for the polls under the current mixed arrangement.

If elections are not held on November 22, lawlessness in the country will only get worse.

The Animals Of The Kapilvastu Riots

At that point the Maoists' best option will then be to run a vigorous election campaign. They should organize a series of mass meetings across the country. They should take credit for three major things. One, the constituent assembly. Two, republic. Three, federalism. They should tell people how the UML and the Congress came over to the idea of a constituent assembly only because of the Maoists. They should tell people how if it were not for Maoist pressure the Congress would never have opted for a republic, and how even now the Congress party's commitment to a republic is suspect. They might still have a relapse, and that is why the people should vote for the Maoists instead just to make sure we do end up a republic.

On federalism, the Maoists should make fun of the UML and the Congress for not going to the people with at least the outlines of their proposed federalism. This could be their big selling point.

In other words, the Maoists should learn to trust the Nepali people.

And, of course, a huge seller would be their land reform proposal. In a country were most people are poor, land reform should get you a lot of votes.

Time To Hit The Campaign Trail

Don't let the best be the enemy of the good.

Completely Proportional Election: Meeting Point With The Maoists

Do the best you can to get the two goals, but don't work towards the two goals in a way that the country ends up not having elections on November 22. If elections are not held in November, the monarchy will get to live for six months more. That would not be a republican thing to bring about.

Goal: Federal Republic Of State Funded Parties
I Agree With Prachanda On Republic And Proportional Election







In The News

Sitaula faces wrath of Kapilbastu locals; agrees to take action against administrators NepalNews
Deuba for ‘maximum flexibility’ towards Maoist demands there is a real possibility of the peace process breaking down if differences within the eight-party alliance continue to grow, ultimately prompting the Maoists to return to violent movement.
Koirala holds meeting with party leaders
Maoists organise protest rallies
Bandh hits normal life in Terai districts called by the Unified Janatantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha (UJTMM), a breakaway faction of Jaya Krishna Goit-led Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM) ..... Mahottari, Dhanusha, Sarlahi, Siraha, Bara, Rautahat and Saptari districts where transport services remain closed while bazaars in major towns have been shut. Major highways linked to these districts wore a deserted look from early morning ..... The two-day long bandh called to protest the killing of Mohit Khan, the president of Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha, in Kapilvastu six days earlier. .... The UJTMM, which had split a couple of weeks ago, is led by ‘Pawan’ a former central member of JTMM
Private sector worried over Kapilvastu unrest private properties worth over Rs 1 billion have been lost due to the violence. ..... given the political instability, unrest, and fuel shortage, there could be worse days ahead.
Gurung-led NC leaders against commitment proposal for republic

The Animals Of The Kapilvastu Riots

Who killed Mohit Khan?

Was that the work of the YCL? The Maoists? Was that the work of regressives who think Pahadi Madhesi, and Hindu Muslim riots are their last hope to make sure Nepal does not end up a secular, federal republic? Was it the work of Khan's Hindu rivals inside his own party? Were they his personal enemies? Were the killers criminals who had infiltrated from India?

Until we know, we can not pretend we do know. We might never know. But if we do know, the perpetrators must be brought to justice.

Riots: The Beginning

Khan's muder did not have to end in a week long riot that still has not abated. Could the state have intervened? Maybe. Maybe not.

Social, Political, Judicial

To maintain harmony is a social challenge. Maintaining law and order is the work of the state. Protecting minorities like Dalits and Muslims, Pahadis in Madhesh, and Madhesis in Pahad is a political challenge.

Riots should not happen. But once they do happen, the victims should have the option to seek and get justice. The culprits should be identified as far as possible and brought to justice.

There should be legal mechanisms to reign in the wannabe Modis of the Madhesh who seek to score political mileage by inciting anti-Muslim sentiments among Hindus.

Rioting should be illegal. But then so should be inciting riots.

The Animals

People who engaged in looting, arson, murder, rape and general mayhem. They are not Madhesi, they are not Hindu, they are not Muslim, they are not Pahadi. They are animals.

Lawlessness, Statelessness

It is the responsibility of the political leaders to make sure the political transition the country is going through is as short as possible.

Traditionally marginalized groups seeking social justice and equality should be given legitimate outlets.

Not holding respectful dialogue with the armed Madhesi groups has been a major mistake of the Koirala government. That has led to much lawlessness in the Terai. Madhesis have suffered. Pahadis have suffered. People in power might not have personally suffered. And maybe that's why they don't do the sensible thing.

Kapilvastu: Where Buddha Was Born

It is an irony that this had to happen in Kapilvastu of all places.

The Future Madhesh State: To Be Ethnically Diverse

Madhesis want equality in Nepal. The future Madhesh state will have all ethnic groups in Nepal living there. Diversity is a good thing.

Dalits, Muslims

They are in the Terai what the Madhesis are in Nepal. They need protection. They need opportunities. They need equality.

The Way Out

The Maoists got it right. A fully PR election is the only way out. Political paralysis is Girija's style. Gyane, number one problem. Girija, number two problem.


In The News

Wake up, prime minister Kanak Dixit Nepali Times The state administration is quite absent and civil society is just navel-gazing as the country burns. ....... Having failed to train the cadre for pluralistic politics over the previous 18 months, the Maoists seemed willing to reverse their journey into open politics as defined by the 12-point agreement. ...... however, they didn’t reject the comprehensive peace accord or the Interim Constitution. They remain in the interim parliament and their fighters are in the cantonments. ..... He must wake up to immediately to restore law and order, provide services to the people and give all of us the sense that there is a government.
Violence in a vacuum CK Lal It was only when the Maoists walked out of the coalition cabinet on Tuesday that the seven party alliance woke up from is collective reverie. ...... the crisis in Kapilbastu, Rupandehi and Nawalparasi. .... While all this was happening, the party leaders in Kathmandu were playing musical chairs. Until Thursday morning, no prominent politician has deemed it fit to visit the riot-affected region and offer sympathy and relief to victims of violence. ........ Khan was related to the alleged gangster and late parliamentarian Mirza Dilsad Beg, and had been used by almost all political parties. He headed the anti-Maoist vigilante group, was associated with the NC and was active in the MJF. He may have been eliminated by criminal gangs operating from across the border. It could have been the Maoists. Or maybe Hindutva elements. ....... Whoever killed Khan, it wouldn’t have been a cause for a communal flare-up had the local administration responded quickly. ..... Lahan, Nepalganj, Gaur, and now Kapilbastu .... violence has become the normal method of articulating grievances against the state. ..... Violence is also more likely when there is a widespread belief that state institutions with a legal monopoly over coercive force are weak or partisan. When a government is perceived to be both, risks of lawlessness are much higher.
While Butwal burned Prashant Jha Kapilbastu shows the fragile nature of tarai politics. All it takes is a minor trigger to unleash violence, communal tension and instability. ...... Abdul Moid Khan was an influential leader in Kapilbastu and bordering districts. ..... Viscerally anti-Maoist, he headed a vigilante group and had links with politicians and criminals in the tarai and Uttar Pradesh. ........ His killing may have stemmed from political rivalry or a personal feud, or perhaps groups who knew there would be a backlash and wanted to create instability carried it out. His supporters, Muslims but also some madhesi Hindus, suspected the Maoists, vandalised pahadi houses, attacked both security forces and Maoist camps and torched vehicles. Some people came from across the border to add to the unrest. There was retaliation in Butwal where madhesis were attacked and a mosque vandalised. ....... There was a tussle between Khan’s supporters and Maoists because of past antagonism and for political space, between pahadis and madhesis, and there was potential that this would turn into a Hindu-Muslim riot. ...... the major systemic problems that exist in the tarai: the absence of the state, the political vacuum, the rise of violence, and a political context where ethnicity and identity have come to be the defining feature and inter-community relations have deteriorated. ....... there is not even a rudimentary level of governance. ..... Local district-level party units, which can serve as a potential moderating force, are dormant. .... The party’s madhesi politicians are struggling within the party, looking up to Girija Koirala for direction, or exploring other prospects. ..... Kapilbastu is symptomatic. The entire tarai will have armed groups fighting each other with the state as a silent onlooker, doing nothing to either tackle the core causes or maintain basic law and order. ...... Many pahadis do not know how to cope with power slipping out of their hands. Others have become insecure, resulting in migration or belligerence ....... There will more Kapilbastus, both in the east and west of the plains.
Building bridges in the madhes Kunda Dixit politicians are playing games in Kathmandu and criminalised extremists have hijacked a movement that tried for the first time to give genuine respect to the people of the tarai. ........ The situation is not out of control, the political space for negotiations still exists .... It is hard to explain why the madhes crisis is not registering in Kathmandu ...... The anti-Maoist feeling here is intense, and most here believe the parties are allowing the madhes violence to simmer because it is keeping the Maoists out. ....... Every week there is a new incident that could potentially set off pogroms like the one that ravaged Kapilbastu last week. ..... On Wednesday Upendra Yadav kicked off his MJF’s election campaign with a speech in Jaleswor. The NC held a mass meeting in Gaur last week, and even sent its popular senior leader Aftab Alam to rally supporters. At a gathering of NC cadre in Malangwa on Monday, even the familiar bickering over party tickets seemed like a welcome sign of normalcy. The UML has also been mobilising support and is confident it will do well. All this despite a ban on election campaigning by various tarai militant groups. ...... “The feeling here is we haven’t got anything out of Nepal, so why should we call ourselves Nepalis,” explains the NC’s Suresh K Sah. “The challenge is to make madhesis feel like Nepalis not just by political representation but by investing in communications and infrastructure.” Repairing the road to Malangwa would be a good start.
Fix this first Shrishti Jha Under the PR system, there is a provision for quotas to ensure fair representation madhesi (31.2 percent), dalit (13 percent), Indigenous groups (37.8 percent), disadvantaged regions (Achham, Kalikot, Jajarkot, Jumla, Dolpa, Bajhang, Bajura, Mugu and Humla districts 4 percent), and ‘Others’ (30.2 percent) which add up to an impossible 116.2 percent. ........ half of the seats in the PR and a third in the overall CA are earmarked for women ...... the Election Commission wanted a provision for a fixed closed list but the politicians decided otherwise. Post-election candidate selection is undemocratic and unfair because it gives undue supremacy to party bosses and would make MPs beholden to them and encourage corruption, nepotism and sycophancy. ....... the 240 seats of the PR plus 17 nominated seats in the constituent assembly would be appointed by a handful of elitist leaders who have no track record of being inclusive in the past.

Los Angeles Riots 1992





Dublin Riots 2006



Bradford, England Race Riots 2001



Babri Masjid Demolition





Gujarat Massacre