What Will The Constituent Assembly Look Like?

Nepali Congress 12% 12/60*100*5 = 100 seats out of 500
UML 11% 11/60*100*5 = 92 seats out of 500
Maoists 10% 10/60*100*5 = 83 seats out of 500
RPP, RJP, RPP (K) 5% 5/60*100*5 = 42 seats out of 500
Other Left Parties 5% 5/60*100*5 = 42 seats out of 500
Sadbhavana (Anandi) 7% 7/60*100*5 = 58 seats out of 500
MJF 7% 7/60*100*5 = 58 seats out of 500
Others 2% 2/60*100*5 = 17 seats out of 500
Total 60% votes cast

Left Parties 92 + 83 + 42 = 217 out of 500
Non Left Parties 100 + 42 + 58 + 58 + 17 = 275 out of 500

Some predictions.

(1) The country will be declared a republic on day one.
(2) Federalism is guaranteed, although the shape of that federalism is far from certain. Most of the friction in the assembly will be on this topic.
(3) If Girija stays healthy and he stays president of the unified Congress, he will likely become the first president of Nepal.
(4) It is also possible Madhav Nepal will manage to get some non-Left parties to join him. In that case, he gets to be Nepal's first president. The Sadbhavana (Anandi) and the MJF would be prime candidates for such a move on the part of Nepal.
(5) The Sadbhavana (Anandi) and the MJF will emerge the kingmakers in the assembly. It is very possible they will go with the Left Front.

Some suggestions.

(1) If the UML and the Maoists were to become one party, they will easily emerge the largest paty in the country. But their unification is unlikely.
(2) There is a clear case to be made for a unification of the Sadbhavana (Anandi) and the MJF. But that also is nowhere close to gelling.



3 States: Terai, Eastern Hills, Western Hills

The MJF wants all of Terai to become one state. If we go for that, we are possibly looking at three states and 75 districts.

In The News

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मेलम्ची ः सुरुङ र करार
राज्य पुनःसंरचना र कणर्ाली

Videos

Surya Bahadur Thapa 1
Surya Bahadur Thapa 2

Madhav Kumar Nepal 1
Madhav Kumar Nepal 2
Madhav Kumar Nepal 3

Prachanda 1
Prachanda 2
Prachanda 3

प्रचण्डे बाहुनले अौंला पिन खान्छ, हात पिन खान्छ

नेपालमा शाहहरूको सामन्तवाद भनेको केही सय वर्ष पुरानो कुरा हो। तर बाहुनवाद भनेको १०,००० वर्ष पुरानो कुरा हो। प्रचण्डे बाहुन भनेको माअोवादी साअोवादी केही होइन त्यो। त्यो खावोवादी बाहुनवादी प्रवृितको मान्छे हो भन्ने कुरा उसको व्यवहारले देखाइरहेको छ। सत्ताधारी काँग्रेसी बाहुनहरू र प्रचण्डे बाहुनको कुरा िमल्नु भनेको १०,००० वर्ष पुरानो बाहुनवाद कायम रहेको उदाहरण हो। वर्तमान नेपालको अिहलेको सबैभन्दा ठूलो समस्या बाहुनवाद हो। बाहुनवादको िवरोध बाहुनको िवरोध नभएर एउटा िवचारधाराको िवरोध हो। मधेशी, जनजाित र दिलतलाई अिहलेसम्म िथचेर राखेको िवचारधाराको िवरोध हो।

राजाको तानाशाही नसहने नेपाली जनताले प्रचण्डे बाहुनको तानाशाही सहला भन्ने कुरा त्यो बाहुनले नसोंचे पिन हुन्छ। राजाको ९०,००० बन्दूकको केही लागेन। प्रचण्डे बाहुनको ३,००० बन्दूकको केही लाग्ला भन्ने सोंचाइ अाफैंमा हास्यास्पद छ।

मधेशी क्रान्ितका दौरान ३८ शहीद पैदा गर्ने बाहुन कंस िसटौलाले उिहले राजीनामा िदइसक्नु पर्ने हो। नैितकताको अाधारमा। घोिषत समयमा संिवधान सभाको िनर्वाचन गराउन नसकेकोले िगिरजा बाहुनले उिहले राजीनामा िदइसक्नुपर्ने हो, नैितकताको अाधारमा। मधेशी क्रान्ितका नम्बर एक शत्रु भएर िनस्केका प्रचण्डे बाहुनले शान्ित सम्झौताका प्रत्येक कुरालाई उल्लंघन गरेर संिवधान सभाको िनर्वाचनको संभावनालाई पर पर सािरिदएका छन्, र त्यसो गरेकोले त्यो बाहुनले नेपाली राजनीितबाटै राजीनामा िदएर काशी गइसकेको हुनुपर्ने हो। देशमा अिहलेसमम् िनर्वाचन भइसक्नु पर्ने हो। नहुनुको िजम्मेवारी िगिरजा र प्रचण्डको बाहुन गठबन्धनको हो।

अाज चुनाव हुने हो भने काँग्रेसले १२%, एमालेले ११% र माअोवादीले १०% मत बटुल्ने देिखन्छ। प्रचण्डे बाहुनको पार्टीले बहुमत ल्याउने कुरा त परै जाअोस्। त्यो कुनै पिन पार्टीको बहुमत नरहेको सभामा सबैभन्दा ठुलो पार्टी पिन बन्दैन। प्रचण्डे बाहुनले नेपालको पिहलो राष्ट्रपित बन्ने सपना देखेको छ। १०% मत ल्याउने पार्टीले राष्ट्रपित पद पाउँदैन। राष्ट्रपित बन्ने सपना प्रचण्डे बाहुनको िदवास्वप्न हो।

शान्ित सम्झौताको प्रत्येक बुँदाको पालना गर्नु प्रचण्डे बाहुनको मुडमा भर पर्ने कुरा होइन। देशमा वाक् स्वतन्त्रता, प्रेस स्वतन्त्रता, राजनीितक िवचारधारा र क्िरयाकलापको स्वतन्त्रता िवरूद्ध प्रचण्डे बाहुनले यूद्द ऐलान गरेको अवस्था छ। यो यथासक्य चाँडो बन्द नगरेमा सबै गैर माअोवादी शक्ितहरू एक भएर माअोवादीका िवरूद्द एउटा िनर्णायक राजनीितक युद्ध छेड्नु नपर्ला भनेर भन्न सिकन्न।

त्यो राजनीितक युद्धको पिहलो कदम प्रचण्डे बाहुनलाई पेरूको गोन्जालोलाई जस्तै झ्यापझुप समातेर अाजीवन कारावासमा पठाउनु पर्ने हुन्छ। त्यसपिछ माअोवादी पार्टीलाई सरकारबाट हटाउनु पर्ने हुन्छ। त्यसपिछ माअोवादी पार्टीसँग फेिर वार्तामा बस्नु पर्ने हुन्छ। अिहलेसम्मका शान्ित सम्झौता सबै मान्ने भए चुनावमा जाउँ, नत्र भने माअोवादी नेता जितलाई जेल चलान, माअोवादी पार्टीमािथ प्रितबन्ध, र सेरेमोिनयल राजतन्त्र रािखछाड्ने ग्यारण्टीकासाथ ३,००० माअोवादी बन्दूक थुत्ने िकिसमले नेपाल सेनाको पिरचालन। बन्दुक नउठाउने जित सबै माअोवादी लडाकुलाई माफी र नेपाल सेनामा भर्तीको अाश्वासनको ऐलान।

देउवा काँग्रेसको हुम्लाको सबैभन्दा लोकप्िरय नेतालाई बेपत्ता पारेर हत्या गिरयो। त्यस्ता धेरै उदाहरण छन्। अिहले मधेशी जनािधकार फोरमका युथ िवङका नेता िजतेन्द्र साहलाई माअोवादीले काठमाण्डुबाट बेपत्ता पारेको र गृह मंत्रालय चुईंक्क नबोलेको अवस्था छ। तराईमा ज्वाला र गोइतले माअोवादीका केही कार्यकर्तामािथ िहंसात्मक, गलत व्यवहार गरेको घटनाहरू सामुन्ने अाएका छन्। त्यसको रीस फोरममािथ पोख्नु जायज होइन। िजतेन्द्र साहलाई प्रचण्डे बाहुनले यथासक्य चाँडो छोड्दैन भने र केही गरी साहको हत्या गर्छ भने त्यसपिछ प्रचण्डे बाहुनले तराईमा राजनीित गर्ने कुरा नसोंचे पिन हुन्छ।

शान्ित सम्झौताको पालना गरेर, संिवधान सभाको लािग अावश्यक वातावरण तयार पारेर, चुनावमा गएर, राजनीितक पार्टीको पैसाको एक मात्र स्रोत जनताको मत हुने संसारको नम्बर एक लोकतन्त्र स्थापना गर्ने तर्फ नलाग्नु प्रचण्डे बाहुनको मुर्खता हो। चेत्ने समय अझै पिन केही बाँकी छ। नत्र प्रचण्डे बाहुनको भिवष्य भनेको गोन्जालोको जस्तो हुने देिखन्छ। संगठन, नीित, मेिनफेस्टो, कार्यक्रम र पिरस्रमको बाटो गएर जनताको िदल िजत्ने बाटो प्रचण्डलाई िकन मन पिररहेको छैन? िहंसाको बाटो, दादािगरीको बाटो िकन? त्यो बाटो गइराख्नु भनेको प्रचण्डकालािग अाजीवन कारावासको बाटो हो। समयमै चेतना भया।

ब्िरटीश प्रधानमन्त्री च्याम्बरलेनले िहटलरलाई अौंला खान िदउँ, अिन हात खाँदैन भन्ने सोंचे। त्यो गलत सोंचे। त्यो गलतीले गर्दा दोस्रो िवश्व युद्ध भयो। त्यस्तै नेपालमा गृह युद्ध नहुन िदनकालािग प्रचण्डे बाहुनसँग कडाइकासाथ पेश अाउनु सबै गैर माअोवादी शक्ितहरूको सामूिहक धर्म बन्न जान्छ। शान्ित सम्झौताको पालना गर, राजनीितक िहंसा र दादािगरी बन्द गर, प्रेस स्वतन्त्रतामािथको अाक्रमण बन्द गर, नत्र भने अाजीवन कारावासमा जाउ भनेर भन्न सक्नुपर्यो। नत्र भने प्रचण्डे बाहुनले अौंला पिन खान्छ, हात पिन खान्छ।

नभम्बर २२ मा चुनाव हुनै पर्छ। त्यसकालािग माअोवादीले अाफ्नो िवचार र व्यवहारमा पिरवर्तन ल्याउनै पर्छ। प्रचण्ड इितहास जाने िक कारावास जाने? त्यो िनर्णय उसकै हो।

छाता संगठनको कुरा फेिर ल्याउने िक नल्याउने
समानुपाितक िनर्वाचनको बाहुन फर्मुला मधेशी िवरूद्धको षडयन्त्र हो
तराईमा िहंसाको राजनीितक समाधान छ
जनजाित र दिलतले पार्टी नखोल्नु मानिसक दासता हो
द्वैध नागिरकता िबना नेपालमा अार्िथक क्रान्ित सम्भव छैन
मई १२ िदउँसो १ बजे सेन्ट्रल पार्क दक्िषण पूर्व कोणा
एक मधेशी पार्टी
मैले पिरकल्पना गरेको मधेश राज्य
न्यु यर्कमा छाता संगठनको अावश्यकता
ज्वाला, गोइत, टाइगर और कोबराको चुनाव क्यों लडना चािहए


In The News

EC to govt: Improve security for free and fair polls NepalNews free and fair CA elections would not be possible if security was not improved. The current security situation is far from satisfactory .... urged the parties to reach consensus on the electoral system at the earliest and reach out to the agitating groups in order to create a favourable climate .... will soon bring out the list of political parties
PM for fulfilling all demands before polls fulfilling the demands of the agitating groups .... Koirala also said that the talks with the various agitating groups would reach a conclusion in the next few days.
PM Koirala inaugurates the annual convention of the Democratic NGO Federation
Torture: A Time To Heal The issue of involuntary disappearances, which continues to haunt the people of Nepal even a year after the cessation of armed conflict, has a lot to do with torture. .... oftentimes a person is ‘disappeared’ after the latter is subjected to extreme torture, which leads to his/her death or severe mental/physical injury. In order to suppress the consequence, the victim is made to ‘disappear.’ ...... an improvement from the time of conflict when every year, 100,000 people in the country were directly or indirectly traumatised by torture – mental or physical – perpetrated against them or their family members. ....... torture is still used as a favoured tool to extract confessions; and routinely practiced to subdue opponents. ..... isolation, deprivation, blind-folding, humiliation, threats, threats to relatives, sexual abuse and mental tormenting ..... current laws do not yet designate torture as a crime .... various groups have sprouted, particularly in southern plains, carrying out low intensity insurgency. ...... there are nine different armed outfits in Terai ..... the Maoist-affiliated Young Communist League (YCL), too, has been accused of engaging in indiscriminate abductions and torture. ...... in last one year, the state security forces have turned into mute spectators to the situation of worsening anarchy ........ institutionalise the mechanism of visits to detention centres ..... joining the International Criminal Court (ICC) would also go a long way to deal with crimes against humanity and end impunity ...... By agreeing to pass such impotent law, the women political leaders and MPs of even so-called revolutionary parties exposed the naked fact that though they have body of women, their mind resembles to those of feudal males
Civil society comes up with 6-pt recommendation for CA election CMDP requested the government to hold the CA election in a fully proportional electoral system. .... an all-party roundtable meeting be organised ..... hold all-party round table meetings with Madheshi, Dalit, women and Janjati organisations which have been agitating
UML central meeting focused on polls, says Khanal The central committee meeting, which will run for five days, is expected to come up with the party’s strategies for the upcoming CA polls.
Small arms may affect CA polls the increasing use in small arms has put public security in jeopardy.
NSP-Anandidevi forms new working committeedoes not include those from dissenting factions from both sides. ...... Anandidevi Singh is the president of unified NSP-A. two vice presidents Rajendra Mahato and Ram Narayan Yadav. Likewise, there are two general secretaries, Anil Kumar Jha and Shyam Sundar Gupta. ..... five co-general secretaries including Biswonath Singh Rajbanshi, Sitaram Mandal, Surendra Prasad Kurmi, Kasim Ali Siddiqui and Raj Kumar Gupta. Nawal Kishore Shah has been appointed as treasurer while Sarita Giri is the spokesperson
Terai life hit hard by routine bandhs The agitating Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF), two factions of Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM), Terai Tigers, and Maoist sister organisations have called bandhs numerous times ...... A Maoist-called bandh in Siraha, Saptari, Sunsari, Udaypur and Rautahat paralysed normal life on the second day on Monday as well. .... Young Communist League (YCL) members could be seen roaming around Rajbiraj and other towns asking shop owners to close their shops. ..... In Rupni of Saptari district, the Maoists torched four trucks during their protest ..... In Rautahat, the Maoist called bandh demanding action against those involved in Gaur massacre
Thapa asks leaders to rise above partisan interests Surya Bahadur Thapa has expressed doubts that environment conducive for polls would be in place for the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections ..... "If the major three players of today's politics (PM Koirala, Prachanda and UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal) do not come up with ideas to move forward through understanding in next one to two months, I do not think the present situation can improve on time for credible polls" ....... currently all the three players were bent on having CA elections but "on their own respective terms." ...... "Just by announcing elections date, I do not think there can be a miracle creating proper environment of security" ..... On the issue of Maoist-affiliated Young Communist League (YCL), Thapa said that no one should try to "give them time to improve at the cost of human rights violations." ..... rejected claims made by some quarters that YCL's 'mistakes' were being 'exaggerated.' .... some good works done by YCL were "ruse to mislead the people." Watch Video
Govt sets Nov 22 poll date
YCL to start ‘door to door’ campaign in the valley the youth wing of Maoist party is facing increased criticism from every quarters for taking the law into its hands .... According to YCL valley coordinator Sagar, some 1,500 young men and women from the league would be mobilised for the campaign. .... YCL would also ‘secretively’ mobilise plain-clothed YCL activists who will observe the activities of the people and then report it to the organisation. ..... YCL plans to carry on with the campaign till September.

Govt sets Nov 22 poll date NepalNews
Serious mass movement if no CA, says Prachanda
UML central committee meeting begins
Speaker urges all to unite for CA polls
NRNA wants separate govt body to look after NRN matters
Maoists announce 3-day bandh in Saptari
Increasing number of Chitwan villagers involved in rhino poaching

Shahi found dead
Maoists manhandle UML leader
JTMM-Goit kills Maoist leader in Saptari

PM should take responsibility if CA polls fail: Nepal
Maoists call indefinite strike in Sarlahi; MJF shut down Parasi