(1) The Maoists have committed themselves to the idea of a multi-party democratic republic. In that system you acquire power through the ballot box. Power does not flow through the barrel of a gun. The Maoists have to by then have emerged as a political party without an army. Otherwise they are suspect. That is step 4.
(2) Step 3 is the idea of a constituent assembly. Such elections have to be free and fair. The people are not going to be made to vote under the threat of the gun. That is a total no no. Step 3 is also about the Maoists having become a political party without a standing army.
(3) Step 2 is peace talks with the interim government of the seven party alliance. Those talks will be about political reasoning, not as to who is stronger militarily. There also it is not about the gun. One outcome of those talks is already certain: elections to a constituent assembly. Another outcome of those talks stays uncertain: what to do with the two armies. One, their partial integration. Two, full integration. Three, disband both armies. If you go the integration route, the question is should that be done before the elections to a constituent assembly, or after? The Maoists want to do it after because they feel their army will get a larger share in the integration formula. I can see why they feel that way, but that thinking is problematic. If the Maoists get 20% of the vote in the constituent assembly, they will then demand that 20% of the army should be from their side. That is precisely the wrong way to integrate the two armies. You don't want one army with two loyalties. If there is to be integration, that has to happen before the constituent assembly elections. And the less fighting there is between the two armies now, greater the chances of integration. Personally I am for disbanding the two armies.
Switzerland (07/05) The army has virtually no full-time active combat units
The New York Times > Magazine > In the Magazine: Without a Doubt it's Sweden that has no army
Women making history today | csmonitor.com In contrast to Israel, Sweden has no sworn enemies and no standing army.
There are several reasons why I am for disbanding both the armies. (1) That is the quickest, surest way to ensure free and fair elections to a constituent assembly. (2) The RNA and the PLA have fought each other too bitterly for too long to ensure a smooth integration. (3) There are no Madhesis in either the RNA or the PLA. That is like neglecting half the country. (4) Nepal is not about to go to war with either India or China. (5) Nepal is a poor country. It needs to be spending on education and health.
Whether the two armies get disbanded or integrated, that process will be political and not military.
Note that steps 4,3 and 2 all are political. There are no military combats involved.
(4) That brings us to step 1. How to topple this regime and install a seven party interim government? This is where the problem lies. The Maoists have been arguing that it is not possible to bring this regime down unless it is also attacked militarily. They want the seven party alliance to wage their peaceful street protests. And they want themselves to keep hitting militarily. Actually they would prefer a "fusion" of the two. That not forthcoming, they are okay with the two-pronged strategy.
I would like to argue the Maoists have, if anything, delayed the demise of this regime by engaging in armed conflict. They have attacked with a newfound ferocity, true, but if they keep going down that path, you are looking at resumed US military aid, which might or might not be a military victory for the king, but it sure will be a major political victory.
If the Maoists as a political party without an army is the idea for steps 2,3 and 4, why do they insist on something entirely different for step 1, especially when step 1 has to happen before steps 2,3 and 4 can take place?
Maoist violence fuels the monarchist propaganda that they are the ones who will save the country from the Maoists.
Maoist violence shrinks the political space for a decisive mass agitation which is what will topple this regime.
Maoist violence makes more possible resumed US military aid. That weakens the global isolation of the king. That creates fissures in the global coalition for democracy in Nepal.
The Maoists may argue that because the king did not reciprocate their ceasefire, they have been forced back to going to violence. I thought they were republicans. Why are they so enslaved to what the king does or not? The Maoist action plan should not depend on the king. The king's not reciprocating the ceasefire hurt the king. The ceasefire hurt the king big time. That is why he tried so hard to break it. He succeeded when he managed to break the ceasefire.
The Maoists do not have to stand there helplessly. But they do have to end their offensives. And they do have the option to go on active defense.
There can be no Maoist military offensives during this decisive phase of the movement. That is what it boils down to.
I have said time and again it is very hard to do what the Maoists have been trying to do. And it does not help their process that the king is so hostile, and the seven party alliance can sometimes act like it has all the time in the world.
But all that is a reason to hasten the demise of this regime. And you do that be ceasing the violence. Make space so people can throng into the streets.
In The News
Nepal Rebels Free Four Polish Trekkers Washington Post, United States
Nepal: Civilians at Risk as Conflict Resumes Reuters AlertNet, UK
INTERVIEW-Nepal rebel chief's father awaits son's homecoming
Civilian Casualties Soaring in Nepal: HRW Himalayan Times, Nepal
Bring Rights Abusing Soldiers to Civilian Courts: OHCHR
Security beefed up amid fears of Maoist infiltration in stir
India facing tough time along Nepal, Bhutan borders Kantipur Online, Nepal
Nepal Army Admits Beating Villagers, Forms Probe Panel Nepal human Rights News, Nepal
Troops Beat Over 100 Villagers in West Nepal Army Barrack
Paris Protests Against Nepal's Crown Prince Over 'Sexual Cleansing ... 365Gay.com
Nepali army attacks rebel meeting, five said killed Reuters AlertNet, UK
No Improvement in Nepal's Press Freedom Situation: Int'l Mission
UML Urges Maoists to Announce Fresh Truce
Alliance Urged to Come Up with Common Agenda
Nepal turns down fact-finding request of international media
Polish trekkers are not with us: Maoists Nepaleyes, Nepal
Maoists Abduct Two Polish Climbers
SPA should urge UN for resolving conflict: Gautam
Why it’s time for Nepal monarch to step aside Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates
