The Nepalgunj Attack: Military Stalemate Continues

Eight killed in Nepalgunj attack NepalNews ...... the Maoist attack at key security installations in the mid-western town of Nepalgunj late Tuesday...... the Maoist raid that started at around 8:15 p.m. and lasted for more than two hours ....... security personnel are searching the whole city and there is heavy security presence in the town....... Hundreds of armed Maoists attacked the district police office, the regional police training centre, Nepal Rastra Bank, the municipal police office, the RNA’s No 4 Company at Ranjha, district prison, zonal police office and the district administration office at the same time...... The Maoists attacked the municipal police office, the zonal police office, the district police office and the district prison for an hour after engaging the army in the RNA’s company barrack......... rebels retreated after 10 p.m. in various directions ....... Security personnel have recovered a tractor believed to have used by the rebels to ferry their guerrillas....... Nepalgunj is the second most fortified town in the country after the capital, Kathmandu....... Last Friday, at least six policemen were killed when Maoist rebels had attacked two police check posts in Nepalgunj. Three policemen were killed in the raid at a police post at BP Chowk at around 6:00 p.m. while three policemen were killed at Jamunaha police post near the Nepal-India border around the same time.
Two security men killed; 8 injured in Nepalgunj attack Nepalnews.com, Nepal
Two securitymen killed in Maoists attack in Nepalgunj Webindia123
Maoists attack Nepalgunj, Fighting going on (News Update) Nepali Times
Maoists attack Nepalgunj, Fighting going on Nepalnews.com
Massive Maoists attack in Nepal Times of India, India Maoist guerrillas launched a series of massive attacks in a key city in Nepal, a day after the Home Minister said security has been beefed up across the country ..... a simultaneous attack on more than five targets ...... The state media, devoted to election propaganda, ignored the raid. ..... less than a week after twin attacks by the rebels in the same city .....
Guerrillas massive attacks in mid-western Nepal kill 2 security ... China Daily, China anti-government forces launched massive attacks at almost all the security posts in Nepalgunj...... with bombs and modern weapons ..... A state of terror has gripped the locale after the Nepalgunj market, some 600 km west of Kathmandu was rocked with explosions and unabated firing from early evening...... Series of explosions occurred around the town till late in the evening.
Massive Maoist attack in midwest Nepal NewKerala.com, India
Nepal rebels attack town as pressure mounts on king Reuters AlertNet, UK setting off a string of explosions at government buildings and police posts .... The assault came hours after riot police clashed with pro-democracy protesters across the country on Tuesday, firing tear gas, using water cannons and employing baton charges to break up anti-king demonstrations........ Coordinated attacks ...... Nepalgunj is the biggest town close to the Maoist heartland in west Nepal ...... First there were big explosions and then continuous gunshots ...... The Maoists have carried out a series of attacks across Nepal since ending their four-month unilateral ceasefire on Jan. 2 ...... They said they would expand their decade-old anti-monarchy revolt to city centres and stop the Feb. 8 municipal elections.....
Guerrillas massive attacks in mid-western Nepal kill 2 security ... Xinhua, China

I am no military analyst, but some observations I make:

1. The Maoists had attacked the town less than a week before. So this second attack can not have been a surprise.
   
2. Nepalgunj is the most fortified town in Nepal after Kathmandu. This might have been the Maoist dress rehearsal for Kathmandu itself.
   
3. The Home Minister had announced only a day before that security had been beefed across the country.
   
4. The security forces in town did not see the Maoists coming. That shows poor or non-existent intelligence operations. The state security forces seem to be guarding only the immediate premises of wherever they are stationed. They don't really seem to venture out. The morale seems to be low.
   
5. When the Maoists retreated, they were not followed by the state security forces. Instead they blanketed the town the following day. They felt the need to show off to the civilians instead.
   
6. The Maoists retreated in all directions. That shows the Maoists have strategically encircled Nepalgunj. That is still true also after the attack. Nepalgunj is in the flatlands. The security forces had the option to follow the Maoists in vans. They did not take that option. The state is very much on the defensive.
   
7. The Maoists did not focus on killing many security personnel. Instead they exhibited their ability to penetrate. They focused instead on causing damange to physical structures with bombs.
   
8. They perhaps wish to claim victory by saying they came, they hit, and they left at will. They are not trying to count their victory with the body count.
   
9. Obviously the king and his men are not doing much or anything. They are just sitting back, waiting. They assume the Maoists will not penetrate all the way to them.
   
10. This attack is a big reason for the state to not seek a military solution to the insurgency. For both sides. The state helplessly watched. The Maoists did not take over the town. The military stalemate continues. It is as if the king seeks just another round of confrontation. If he could think a few moves ahead like a chess player, he would opt for the politial solution quick.
    

Visitors

24 January

19:18

Akita Prefectural University, Japan

24 January

19:48

The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., United States

24 January

20:45

Niigata University, Niigata, Japan

24 January

20:46

Texas A&M University, College Station, United States

24 January

21:40

Comcast Communications, Alexandria, United States

24 January

22:01

University of South Alabama, United States

25 January

00:49

Subisu Cable Net Pvt. Ltd, Nepal

Subedi Surya, Not Surya Subedi

Urdu, I hear, is read right to left. You have to read this guy's name like you were reading Urdu.

I don't personally know Surya Subedi, I have never met him, although we once briefly corresponded over email. I sent him my Proposed Constitution and his response to it was the UML's response to the 1990 constitution when it first came out.

Surya Subedi is symbolic of the dysfunction in the Nepali diaspora. If this guy's name instead was Surya Bishwakarma, or Surya Yadav even, I doubt he would have seen the light of day. His last name has played a big role in his career achievements, remarkable as they are.

The guy has an impressive resume: "..... a well-known name in Nepalese law circle. Professor of international law at the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom , Dr. Subedi briefly visited his home country last week en route to Vietnam for which country he is a legal advisor...... Chairman of Nepal Britain Academic Council – a council of scholars of two countries – he has written a number of books specializing in international relations."

How could anyone possibly defend the 1990 constitution? Beats me. (This Inadequate, Improper, Insufficient 1990 Constitution)

Proposed Republican Constitution 2006
Proposed Constitution (December 19)
Proposed Constitution (November 17)
Proposed Constitution (September 3)
Proposed Democratic Republican Constitution (August 12)
Janata Dal Constitution (August 8)
Proposed Constitution (June 18)
Reorganized UN, Proposed Constitution, Methods (May 30)
Proposed Constitution (May 3)
Shortcut To A New Constitution, Shortcut To Peace (April 8)
This Inadequate, Improper, Insufficient 1990 Constitution (April 4)

"........ the constituent assembly becomes relevant only when there is a complete political vacuum. We do not have that political vacuum. When there is a revolution; when a new nation is born out of colonial administration; when there is a break-up of a nation; when there is clear political vacuum then you need to have constituent assembly to prepare new constitution......... I have not supported the idea of constituent assembly. In my opinion, the basic framework of the present constitution is fine........ I am not convinced why this constitution is an obstacle to nation building. ..... in Sri Lanka , the Tamils were elected to parliament and they did their best to have that their demands met by the government. When they could not get anything, only then they decided to take up arms...... "

Posterity has a right to see these words archived.

The honchos in the diaspora like to badmouth the leaders of the seven party alliance. I can't stand it at all. These political illiterates are so not in tune with the ground realities in Nepal.

The seven party alliance is for a constituent assembly, and Surya Subedi does not have the slightest clue why. These parties received more than 90% of the votes during the elections in the 1990s. They have their ears to the ground.

Surya Subedi is a typical Bahun. Maybe he got to read a few books, make a few bucks, but the neanderthal in him that stands in the way of social justice just grew and grew and grew. That primitiveness never got "educated."

People like Surya Subedi end up with blood on their hands without ever picking up the gun. They end up unbending members of the power structure that marginalizes vast swathes of the country. People end up choosing between fatalism or fanaticism. The safety valve sometimes explodes.

People like Surya Subedi send exactly the wrong message. They say, no, you can not possibly reason with me. I have made up my mind. In my world, there is no place for you.

This is not a particularly enlightened Bahun, but then how many are?

"......are not going to serve the national interest. Nor are the people who are in favor of abolishing the monarchy altogether.....We have to do what it takes to make sure that monarchy can be used for nation building and development of the country.......The way the King has been governing the country since February 1 is not satisfactory. But that does not mean the institution of monarchy itself is not needed in the country. We need to separate the occupier of the throne from the institution of monarchy. No matter how the present monarch behaves, the institution of monarchy is part and parcel of Nepali national institution and Nepali psyche. So, on the basis of some events taking place within past one or two year, we cannot say that the monarchy is an obstacle to nation building.."

This Einstein would like to separate the institution of monarhcy from the person of Gyanendra Shaha. How exactly is that possible? This guy is possibly superstitious, probably worse.

".... I think Chinese understand our aspirations and desire. And these desires can be met under the present constitution...."

The king likes to claim the Chinese are with him. Now this genius is making the same tall claim. Do the Chinese even know he exists?

"......If you do not accept the existence of monarchy, they why do you expect the monarchy to accept your existence as a Maoist force. So, we need to accept the existence of all political forces and find some sort of a national consensus to move forward......look at their various 40-point or 75 point proposals, more than two-third of them can be included in any political manifesto of any party. This is a wish list....... I would not necessarily say they are foolish. They are backward in their thinking. ...... You can attract crowd very easily on the basis of cheap political slogans. ....Once you have no equal opportunities in the country, no equal access to resources and no equal access to power, the disenchanted and disillusioned people will be attracted to cheap political propaganda.....the international community did not have a good understanding of Maoist movement – what they stand for and what their ultimate game was. Second thing, there is not much that the international community itself can do....... Apart from India - which surrounds the country from three sides and which have, perhaps, more leverage – the international community, for example the United States – a faraway country no matter how powerful that country is, they have a limited leverage....... "

"...I think the international community has played a very encouraging role here. They have not, in my opinion, subscribed to the idea of constituent assembly. I don’t think they would ever support the Maoist revolution or whatever you call it. They are firmly of the view that the country like ours needs both – the monarchy and the democracy...."

The world sent its ambassador to Nepal. His name is Surya Subedi. He speaks for the international community that he himself says does not have much influence in Nepal, and he claims the international community speaks for the Nepali people. He could have chosen to speak as a Nepali speaking for Nepal. But he took the long road. Why? It is a mystery. Or is it?

".....their national interests can be reconciled with our own national interest provided that we have people in power with competence, knowledge and expertise.....These two countries have to compete with other western countries and economic giants. If they fight with each other, making Nepal an issue, I do not think they would be far-sighted leaders. So I think their interest lies in making sure that they do not have disagreements over Nepal ......."

Since 2/1, did India and China ever fight over Nepal? For one split second ever? But I am sure both powers will appreciate Subedi's words of caution.

"And I do not think India will be foolish to intervene in our internal affairs. It is our own internal affairs and we are capable of resolving with it."

If the matter is so internal, why has this regime consistenly tried to get external military aid?

"Those who are in power should demonstrate their willingness to negotiate with other political forces. I have not seen that willingness so far.......somebody has to take the initiative for national reconciliation now. The initiative has to be taken by the King because he is in power now."

Then switch sides. Why are you with them?

"You and I and many people had said that the political parties were not able to deliver. Perhaps, he wanted to see if he can deliver."

This guy can not possibly be serious.

"If he is prepared to lead the nation towards prosperity through national consensus, accepting peaceful political coexistence is must."

The king may have no leadership role, period.

"You may give advice but at the end of the day, the decision lies in his hands. The decision he has taken, perhaps, was taken on the belief that democratic experience of the past 12-13 years was not able to deliver and perhaps he should have a go at it. We now know that one year has gone and there is no delivery."

The point is not that he has not delivered, the point is he could not have delivered, the point is he should never have experimented, the point is he should never have had the option to experiment. Subedi makes it sound like if he had "delivered," whatever that might mean, 2/1 might have been fine.

"The strategy that is in place now doesn’t convince me that he can delivery even in two more years."

What if he had a different strategy? Then 2/1 would have been okay? Tidy up your minds, people. Who are you kidding?

".....there is vice chairman of council of ministers saying that democracy and monarchy cannot go together. I cannot accept that idea...."

Would you also like to dissociate the Vice Chairman from the institution of vice chairmanship?

"Our struggle is not like a struggle in Sri Lanka , which is basically an ethnic struggle. We have not reached that stage....There are problems in countries like Sudan that are deep-rooted ethnic and racial conflict in nature. Unlike theirs, ours is basically a problem of political governance."

This guy just took a trip to the moon. Which planet did he fly from? If it is not an ethnic struggle, what is it, a class struggle? Maybe Subedi is a closet Commie.

"Actually, whenever I come across any articles or newspaper reports presenting rather distorted picture about Nepal , I am the first one to write letter to the editor in order to give them more information."

I am glad you are curing distortions with distortions. Loha lohe ko katta hai.

Surya Subedi, Spotlight Interview