King Gyanendra, Lead, Follow, Or Get Out Of The Way

A Militarist King And A Wasted Ceasefire
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Isolating The Monarchy
Maoists Should Go Beyond Ceasefire To Peaceful Mobilization

The king and his men thought, okay, so the Maoists are in Rolpa. If we can have army folks in the surrounding districts, and then drop a few thousand troops into Rolpa from the air, we got all bases covered.

These people, they are militarists, ideologically speaking, but they are not smart militarists.

The Maoists are not in Rolpa. They are in all 75 districts.

When the experts say there is no military solution to the civil war, they are right. They are not experts for no reason. Even if there were a military solution, a political solution is preferable. But it is not really a choice.

The Maoists have done their homework. They have managed to expose all the chinks in the 1990 constitution. They have managed to show the monarchy's true face. They have brought the RNA to a standstill. No matter how many more troops the RNA hires, how many helicopters it buys, that military stalemate will still hold. Why? Because the Maoists do not fight a traditional war. Theirs is a war of a fundamental asymmetry. You send troops into Rolpa, and you get bomb blasts in Pokhara, Butwal and Bhairahwa. And these are just warning shots.

If Prachanda and Baburam were to feel they are getting personally targeted, maybe they will make an attempt on the king himself, and perhaps on Pyar Jung. So far both sides have refrained from going to that deep end. The Maoists might opt for suicide bombers if pushed into a corner.

I am not suggesting ideas to the Maoists. I am thinking up possible scenarios based on information that any average news reading person can glean from wars in other parts of the world. My analysis is not particularly sophisticated, it is basic.

Through their warning shots, the Maoists have sent their message that they are not cornered in Rolpa. They are not holed up.

"The party controls the gun," the Maoists like to say. These are primarily political creatures. The gun has always been secondary to them. They ask to be dealt with politically. There is no other way to deal with them.

The king and the RNA can realize that now, or they can wait until 5,000 or 10,000 more lives are lost. But I don't believe they even have that option.

If the king were to kickstart the stalled civil war, and 500 more lives are lost to that, the country is going to erupt. And the king is going to bear the brunt of that eruption. This man is playing with fire. He is holding the country hostage to an archaic ideology called monarchism.

He is pushing himself to a corner.

The Maoists blasted bombs in three towns. Do you think they could do it in 30 towns? Do you think they could do it on larger scales? I think the answer to both questions is yes.

I am not suggesting let us surrender. First, there is no "us." The people in power are not part of my "us." Second, my primary point all along has been that I agree with the experts, there is no military solution, so let's not even try.

Seeking a political solution and surrendering are two different things.

I am for a constituent assembly. If the Maoists are also for it, then all the glory to them. I am not for a constituent assembly because the Maoists are for it. We just happen to have common ground.

The beauty of the idea of seeking a political solution is that most of the details have already been worked out. Where else on earth have you seen that happen?

If the Maoists were going to go on the offensive anyways, I am glad they caused some minor damage to a few buildings. No lives have been lost. They did not attack some RNA installation.

They proved their point without any loss of lives on either side.

The Nepali people are watching. The Nepali people understand.

The Nepali people are smarter than the king, and the RNA. The Nepali people are smarter than the seven party alliance. The Nepali people are smarter than the Maoists. And they are watching. The Nepali people know exactly what the king is upto. This is cold hearted power play on his part: power for the sake of power, autocratic power, archaic, monarchical power.

The seven party alliance is in the lead. The alliance has a roadmap. The king has the option to try and negotiate some within that framework. But he does not have the option to reject the alliance outright.

The king's time is passe.

The train of people power is on its way.

In The News

Minor explosions in Bhairahawa, Butwal and Pokhara NepalNews
Calling off of ceasefire draws mixed reactions
Govt responsible for Maoist decision to withdraw truce: Parties
Rebels end truce, Nepal tense Deccan Herald, India
Update 4: Explosions Rock Nepal Amid Cease-Fire End Forbes
Update 3: Explosions Rock Nepal Amid Cease-Fire End Forbes

A Militarist King And A Wasted Ceasefire

Maoists call off unilateral ceasefire (Breaking News) NepalNews Prachanda, on Monday said his party was compelled to call off the ceasefire "as the government continued its military operation even during the period of unilateral ceasefire."
Nepal's Maoist rebels call off unilateral truce Reuters India, India "The royal army is surrounding our people's liberation army, which is in defensive positions, to carry out ground as well as air attacks on us," the rebels said in a statement. "Therefore, we are compelled to go offensive not only for the sake of peace and democracy but for the sake of self defence." Combing Operations Against Maoists In Rolpa Kantipur The Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) has launched a massive combing operation against the Maoists in Rolpa district to flush out the rebels from their stranglehold area. A large number of the government troops have already entered the district's northern and western villages on Saturday. A group of soldiers has been dispatched to Thawang village in the north while another has been deployed in Bhawang village in the west. Each group of troops comprising 500 soldiers - have been formed for the combing operation mission. Army choppers dropped over 2,000 soldiers in the district from neighboring Dang and Chitwan for the operation which include the commandos of the army's special force - Ranger Battalion. each group has been deployed to the Maoist stronghold areas under the command of a Lieutenant Colonel...... the latest security operation would be one of the "deadliest" operations. "Although we have plans to conduct the operation for about a week to disarm the rebels, we will establish temporary camps in various villages" ...... RNA has also warned various representatives of development organizations in the district to refrain from going out into the village areas for few days.
Maoists Break Ceasefire Kantipur .... actions will now be targeted against the royal government only

This is unfortunate. This is irresponsible on the part of the king. The political parties have been sidelined again. The fighting is bound to be vicious. Both sides have been preparing to the hilt for the past four months.

I guess the king belongs to the school of thought that says there is only a military solution to the insurgency.

I am not sure which side will make the first move. But if the king is going to make his move in Rolpa, the Maoists are likely to strike in the east. Their strength tends to be asymmetry. They do hit and run. They might even strike in Kathmandu.

The civilians that will get caught in the crossfire will bear the major brunt of the whole thing. Chances are the Maoists will take back their word on not harming people who might contest the February 8 polls. It might be a bloody month or two ahead.

The mistake the seven party alliance has made is to not have launched a decisive movement in December, Ukraine style. Instead of a mass meeting here, a mass meeting there, it should have been a day in day out thing until the regime collapsed. But you can not do that without clarity in vision. I think it is high time for a two word goal for the movement: Democratic Republic. Forget the constituent assembly. That comes into the picture after the country is already a republic.

Two words are clarity. Two pages are an essay.

The UML has it. The other six parties need to follow.

The ground situation is about to get complicated again. This is not good. If there is an ugly fight, that sucks away the air from the non-violent movement of the seven parties, in a way. Doesn't it?

And this guy, the king, he is actually on a tour of the eastern part of the country, kind of like Nero and a burning Rome.

The monarchy must still have a substantial presence in the country. The other two forces both seem to depend on it. The Maoist ceasefire was designed to succeed only if the king reciprocated. The seven party alliance's House revival idea is totally dependent on the king. If your success depends on the king, is it a movement against the king?

A successful movement will be one where the gameplan is to succeed regardless of what the king does.

On the other hand, if the king fires the first bullet, that might anger the population. And that might aid the seven party movement. I don't know. All bets are off for now.

Things look complicated.

I don't think the RNA is in any position to crush the Maoists militarily. Instead they invite getting hit in unexpected ways.

2,000 deaths were not enough for the parties. There were 12,000 deaths before they came to the idea of a constituent assembly. How many more deaths does the king need?

I think the king has been worried that if there is peace now, that disturbs his three year long roadmap. The war has to last longer for him to stay on target.