Sunday, November 20, 2005
Friday, November 18, 2005
The Endgame
Girija Koirala ditching the idiotic House revival fantassy idea has got to be the starting point. Nothing else happens until that happens. The movement does not take off, people don't come out into the streets, period.
Madhav Nepal feels the same way, that is why the UML is holding separate mass meetings. From now all the way to an interim government that includes the Maoists, there should be no separate mass meetings of the parties. There should only be joint meetings. After that interim government is formed, then you go your separate ways in the run up to the constituent assembly elections.
Say Girija ditches the idiotic idea, or the parties ditch Girija, and both are good ideas because we are running out of time fast. I mean, Girija is Gyan's spy and undercover agent among the democrats. He is doing what Gyan and Giri can't. He is preventing the movement from taking off. (Newton, Apples, And Girija's House Revival Idea)
So the parties come around to the three point program. (Maoist, Moriarty, Madhav, Manmohan: Get Behind The 3 Point Program)
And the pyramid of 10 is formed. (Pyramid Of 10 In Kathmandu)
Then what? You start with 100,000 people, you grow it to 200,000, and it has already been two weeks, and there are replica mass gatherings in all towns. It is very important for the seven parties to have a roadmap now. Do your homework now, or you stand to abort the movement down the line. If you have a clear roadmap now, your unity will stay strong. Otherwise you will face attacks on the unity from many fronts, inside as well as out.
After those two weeks, if the king has any sense, he will invite the formation of an all party government. That is my first choice option. Because that is the least disruptive, and it still leads to a constituent assembly. What will that all party government look like? It will have the seven parties. But it will also have all the other parties that were in the last parliament but are not in the seven party coalition. That includes the RPP, the RJP, and the Mandal Sadbhavana. And there will also be one representative of the king. So that is seven plus three plus one: 11. And the three largest should get an additional seat each: the UML, the Koirala Congress and the Deuba Congress. So that is 14.
Then you invite the Maoists for peace talks. After a successful completion of that, you invite two of them into the interim cabinet: I would think that would be Prachanda and Baburam. So you are looking at a cabinet of 16. That is quite enough.
I think Girija Koirala should be the Ganesh Man Singh of this movement. And so Madhav Nepal is Prime Minister, Ram Chandra Poudel is Deputy Prime Minister. But such details are for the seven parties to decide, not me.
This is my first choice, but things could go wrong.
What if Girija does not let go the House revival idea, or the seven parties do not let go of Girija? And there is no mass movement? And February 8 comes along? In that case I personally would want to take a few months' leave from the movement. The rest may decide on their own what they might want to do.
What if the king does come around to the idea of the all party government but he wishes to use Article 127 to make that possible? Is that a problem? No. Take it. That all party government still goes to peace talks and off on to a constituent assembly.
What if there is a military crackdown on peaceful demonstrators? Then I am going to change my mind on the king's mental faculties, because that would not be a smart move. Then you are looking at Romania, France, Rwanda, Cambodia. Frankly I don't think the king is that stupid. Why would he want a violent end for himself and his family, and a violent downturn for the country?
If we organize a disciplined, non confrontational mass, I think there will not be police harassment either. But if there is, all incidents are to be recorded. Those who give orders now will be dealt with later.
So the challenge is quite simple. Come up with a clear political message. Get people out into the streets. And stay united and stick to the roadmap.
But if it is two weeks and 200,000 people, and then three, and then four weeks and 400,000 people, then what? Then we change gears. We unilaterally declare a seven party interim government and ask the major world powers to recognize it. They need to do so by kicking out the ambassadors of the king's regime. That interim government will not have room for any of the other parties, or for any royal representative. This is the second choice option. And I am all up for it if the first option is not available.
Fundraising Among Nepalis In The US: Pyramid Of 10