Thursday, November 17, 2005

Newton, Apples, And Girija's House Revival Idea



The story has it that an apple fell on Newton's head and we all ended up with the theory of gravitation. The story is untrue, of course, but it is quite a good one, and gets told like it were true.

Well, the apple landed on Girija Koirala's head and he came up with the idea of House revival, and we have been stuck with it.

His latest stand is to announce the House revival once the movement has peaked. First he wanted the king to do it, then he wanted the Supreme Court to do it, now he wants the movement to do it.

If the movement does it, it will be the first in world history.

And that is why I don't see it happening. For something to be a first, it has to be cuttinge edge in some way.

If Girija had come around to the idea of an interim govenment and a constituent assembly back in the days, this insurgency would have cost the country 1200 not 12,000 lives. Girija has been so relentlessly wrong on so many levels all at once.

The logic behind a constituent assembly has not changed. It is needed now for the same reason it was needed back then. But Girija did not look at the logic of it, even when his own party had demanded the same more than 50 years ago. Girija is absurd.

He only reluctantly came around to the idea after the 2/1 coup.

The last time the movement peaked, Girija brought the house down by backstabbing Madhav Nepal who had been the consensus choice for Prime Minister. If that choice had stayed on, the movement would have continued on.

Now he is set to both not let the movement take off, and frustrate it should it take off by sticking to his House revival gun. Can the movement afford Girija? That is what I am asking.

Girija is in the way. This guy secretly feels he is the only person who can save the king. That suggestion pisses the king off. I and others don't even need to be in that equation.

Girija's idiotic stand is not for the king, not for the country, not for his party. What is it for? Girija's stand is proof there is no internal democracy inside the Nepali Congress. Which central committee meeting of the Nepali Congress decided upon this stand? I would like to see the minutes of the meeting. There was no meeting. Girija simply felt inspired one day, one fine moment, and he blurted it. That is how it came about.

Unless the seven parties come around to the three point program, people are not about to come into the streets in large numbers. You do not fire their imagination by wanting to send them back to the hellish 1990s. You need to give them a forward looking program.

Maoist, Moriarty, Madhav, Manmohan: Get Behind The 3 Point Program

If the movement does not take off, and February 8 comes along, then the parties will be in a serious ditch. This regime has to fall before February 8. And it will not fall unless hundreds of thousands of people fill up the streets, and they will not if the seven parties do not ditch the idiotic House revival stance. Plain and simple.

If the Maoists can move from an armed struggle to a peaceful transformation of the state, if they can move from a communist republic to a democratic republic, why can not Girija ditch the House revival stance?

And if Girija can not ditch the House revival stance, why can't the six parties ditch Girija? The Nepali Congress cadres will all come out in support of the three point program. They will join the movement.

Girija's stand keeps going round and round in a loop like a software bug.

Now that the Maoists have taken crucial steps, the only thing standing between this autocratic regime and full democracy is Girija's House revival stand.

Say the movement takes off, which it won't if the three point agenda is not adopted, but say it takes off, then where do you see the House reviving? How? The king has the keys to the doors, and I mean literally.

An interim government is the only solution.

Girija needs to let go or he needs to get out of the day.

I am frankly worried Girija might become interim Prime Minister. How can the singular reason behind the movement not taking off embody the spirit of the movement should it take off and succeed? That will be a travesty.

Girija is not more important than the country, he is not more important than democracy, he is not more important than the people. As for his party, it has chosen to sink or swim with him. I respect their private right to choose to sink with him.

The 1990 constitution is dead. The 1999 House was within the 1990 constitution. When the constitution itself died, it is not possible the House is still somewhere waiting to be revived.

Girija needs to become like Ganesh Man Singh in 1990, the Supreme Leader and an inspiration, but with no authority and day to day responsibilities. And the seven parties need to ditch the House revival stand. Madhav Nepal should be Prime Minister and Ram Chandra Poudel Deputy Prime Minister. Or this guy Girija is going to mess up the peace talks with the Maoists every step of the way, and then he is going to mess up the constituent assembly process.

Frankly I am running scared for the country.

In The News

Parties And Maoists Take First Step Toward Peace, Kanak Mani Dixit in Delhi Himal
Opportunity To Build Trust

Moriarty's Irresponsible Mainstream


Moriarty came out recently all cylinders fired warning the parties to not form an alliance with the Maoists. It was an inaccurate assessment of what was going on. No alliance was being formed.

Moriarty has had a choice between being on the side of a military or a political solution to the conflict. I think he has been on the side of a political solution. That option asks for dialogue with the Maoists. That is what Bamdev Gautam enaged in. Gautam needs to be commended and thanked for the historic meeting he had with Prachanda.

The parties assured him he was mistaken in his assessment.

It is important for the peace process that a false impression does not get created that the parties were about to forge an alliance with the Maoists and Moriarty saved the day. One, it would be patently false. Two, the Maoists as a political force do not have a high regard for the US as a power. Personally I think it is a little simplistic and slightly inaccurate what they say, but that is secondary. The parties can not afford to be seen as the tail the US dog is wagging.

Moriarty's strength has been to suggest the US will not under any circumstance tolerate the idea of a military takeover of the country by the Maoists, or a communist republic. But no Nepali feels the country is even remotely close to that scenario. The Maoists themselves don't. But that same stance has also been his weakness. His intoxicating personal meetings with the king might enhance the sense of importance of an emissary, but that same phobia has been used by the king for his relentless attacks on the democratic middle.

Moriarty has not been able to protect that democratic middle from the king, and I don't blame him for that. A foreign ambassador can do only so much. But then he should also not try too hard to protect the king from that democratic middle, he should not try at all. One, he can't. Two, it hurts the cause of democracy. Three, it hurts the peace process.

Now he is out in Delhi suggesting the parties should perhaps take part in the municipal polls. That utterance shows how detached from Nepal's ground realities Moriarty is.

The Constituent Assembly is the only reason the parties and the Maoists are talking. If the parties were to abandon that plank, the civil war will restart tomorrow. That is the fire Moriarty is playing with. Moriarty's utterances are not about power the way it should be, but power the way it is. And the Nepali people are already aware of the power configuration. Moriarty need not remind.

If Moriarty thinks the Constituent Assembly is a bad idea, he should come out saying why. He can not ignore the topic if he is serious about peace and democracy in Nepal.

Municipal polls are not the mainstream, they are the extreme.

The parties and the Maoists are both for elections: elections to a constitutent assembly, like in Iraq. Nepal deserves the same, and will get the same.

Moriarty's warning shot that the US might abandon the parties and ally with the king if the parties were to forge an alliance with the Maoists was misplaced. The US ambassador already has been with the king. Sure, the military aid has been halted. But the words of the ambassador have not been clearly on the side of the parties.

The ambassador would be making major contributions by coming out openly for the idea of a constituent assembly. If the US and India officially come around to it, progress towards peace will be much faster.

Preaching democracy is vague, preaching the roadmap called constituent assembly will work.

The 5% Arithmetic

As a Madhesi, after you leave the Madhesh, you end up being a member of 50% of the population who is reduced to being barely 5% of the presence or less. Be it at some school in Kathmandu, or in the mini Nepals in America. The Pahadi-Madhesi dynamic inescapably follows. You have the choice between becoming a Mr./Ms. 5% Madhesi - internalizing the prejudice, ignoring the insults, softening the voice, relishing the token gestures - and being yourself. When you are yourself, the Mr./Ms. 5% Madhesi (Osmosis) is not an ally. The prejudiced Pahadi is an opponent. So what are your options?

The option is called reverse psychology. It is about realizing two things. One, it is not about numbers. The Bahuns are less than 10% of the population in Nepal. But they have kept all other groups thrown off balance. Two, it is a fight on the second floor, not the first floor. (Two Storey Building) All you got to do is assert your collective identity, and hit back at that same level, one on one. It works. All you need is you. You use words.

Pahadi Bahuns As Madhesi

In the West that is what they are as brown people. But the consciousness is lacking. Like the lacking Madhesi consciousness in Nepal.
In The News

Writ petition filed against NGO code of conduct NepalNews
US working with India for common vision on Nepal: Moriarty
NC(D) general convention in January
WB forecasts 6.9 percent GDP growth in South Asia
India has “very very high stakes” in Nepal: Saran
Media has right to broadcast news: former CJ
Code of conduct aimed at silencing the rights defenders: AIN
Ex-minister launches Democratic Nepal party
Time for action by Nepal King: US
Outlook (subscription), India
Nepal's Delhi re-visit sees fresh diplomatic activities
Kantipur Online, Nepal
Talks in Foreign Land Won’t Serve National Interest: Minister Himalayan Times
Guerrillas abduct 560 in eastern Nepal
Xinhua, China
Nepal political talks in Delhi denied
NewKerala.com, India
Nepal opposition, Maoists to hold talks in 'safe' Delhi NewKerala.com
Maoist skeleton in Nepal king's Cabinet
The Statesman, India
UK, US support efforts to bring Maoists to mainstream Hindu
Nepal minister pays money to Maoists: report NewKerala.com
Prajatantik to participate in polls if environment conducive PeaceJournalism.com
42 parties apply for municipal election Gorkhapatra
16 parties to be in fray for municipal polls Gorkhapatra