3 Scenarios

Three Scenarios

1. Scenario 1. Seven party coalition sticks to its four point program to which the House revival idea is key. House does not get revived either by the Supreme Court or the king, because neither have the option to do it. People refuse to come out into the streets in large numbers.
   • Worst case scenario: Maoists end their ceasefire a week before December 3 so as to add an element of surprise to it, and launch a vicious attack against a RNA installatin they deem the weakest. The RNA is at the ready. There is a fierce battle. Neither side wins. A new round of civil war has been launched. It lasts to the middle of 2007. The Maoists carry out massive murder campaigns of candidates to disrupt the municipal and the national polls and succeed. The king digs heels claiming the Maoists can not be allowed to win. The parties end up more marginalized than ever before. Nepal ends up a failed state some time in 2007. Nepal becomes Rwanda, Cambodia.
   • Best case scenario: The parties request an extension of the ceasefire promising to launch a decisive movement. The Maoists comply. But people still refuse to show up in the streets. There is fear, there is apathy. But most of all there is frustration that the parties will not get rid of the House revival idea. Polls are held. There is a low voter turnout. And a few candidates lose life. But the king claims victory and says he is now on to the national polls. The parties look weakened. The Maoists break their ceasefire in March 2006.
2. Scenario 2. Seven party coalition breaks. The Nepali Congress is kicked out of the coalition. The six party coalition revises its agenda and adopts a 3 point program, the 4 point program minus the idiotic House revival idea. The Congress leadership is isolated. The movement takes off. Congress cadres participate in large numbers.
   • Worst case scenario: Looks like there is no unity amond the democrats. Girija makes detrimental statements. The king refuses to budge. The movement has to be toned up. From 100,000 people in the streets, it is 500,000 people in the streets. The parties have to unilaterally declare an interim government. It is two more weeks after that before the major world powers recognize that government. The ambassadors get kicked out. The bureaucracy comes along. The police come along. There is a threat of a coup from the army, but it does not get carried out. The army reluctantly comes along. Maoists try to fish in the murky waters. They switch back from the goal of a democratic republic to a communist republic. Peace talks are stalled. But then UN mediation is sought. The Maoists reluctantly come along. The king makes an attempt at another coup. The country heads straight for a democratic republic.
   • Best case scenario: Hundreds of thousands of people come out into the streets. The king strikes a deal and an all party government is formed. Peace talks are held with the Maoists. The country heads into a constituent assembly.
3. Scenario 3. The seven party coalition immediately adops the 3 point program. People come out into the streets in large numbers. Before December 3, the country has an all party government. The Maoists get invited to unconditional peace talks. Talks succeed. The country heads towards a constituent assembly.
   • Worst case scenario: The king refuses to budge. The coalition unilaterally declares a government.
   • Best case scenario: The country has a new progressive constitution before the Dashain of 2006. That ends up being the happiest festival season in a decade. Diwali was never brighter.

Around The World In 21 Days

The king flies to Bangladesh, then he is off to Africa, then he is off to the Middle East. The cost for the plane: $11,000 per flight hour. From Bangladesh, he is off to Tunisia. Then Burundi, Nigeria, Egypt. Then Saudi Arabia, then United Arab Emirates. The Royal Nepal Airlines has two planes. The carrier will have only one for itself in the mean time.

The Supreme Court Is Under Duress

Its verdict on the draconian media ordinance shows the Supreme Court of Nepal is no longer a party to the universal declaration of human rights, to the basic premises of the 1990 constitution. Chances are it is being both bullied and bribed by the mafia in power. This Supreme Court no longer believes in the rule of law. This has become a kangaroo court.

That is recipe for a revolution, not a movement.

In The News

NGOs burn copies of code of conduct across the nation, five arrested NepalNews
SC refuses to issue interim order on Media Ordinance
Maoists warn pro democracy activists
Parties working to expand democratic center: Leaders
The phase of reconciliation is over: Acharya
Government takes action against teachers
Nepal reporters lose court fight BBC News, UK
Royal Nepal Airlines to face cancellations for King's trip Asian Tribune, Thailand
King Gyanendra ready for reconciliation with parties Asian Tribune
System collapse in Nepal imminent: US ambassador Asian Tribune
Fresh protests in Nepal as king gags NGOs NewKerala.com, India
UN Concerned Over Code for NGOs NewsLine Nepal
India, Pak jointly “can restore” stability in Nepal The Tribune, India
Nepal court refuses to block media law Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates
MEDIA-NEPAL: Court Refuses to Restrain King's Gov't Inter Press Service (subscription), World
Royal Nepal Airlines has just two Boeing jets, monarch's foreign ... OhmyNews International, South Korea
Nepal Government introduces draconian code of conduct for I/NGOs Asian Tribune, Thailand
Thinking the unthinkable Nepali Times, Nepal
King Gyanendra now Dr Gyanendra, courtesy Russia NewKerala.com, India

Rajeev Goyal Talks Up Caste

15 photos.

Smita Narula, video clip.
Rajeev Goyal, video clip.
Chinnaiah Jangan, video clip.
Sanjaya Parajuli, video clip.

I went to an amazing New York University event today for one primary reason: to tell the authors that their report, Caste Discrimination Leads To War, is the most powerful of all reports on Nepal I have read this year, and I have read virtually every report on the country that I have bumped into online by many reputed national and international groups. I think that is a lot coming from a guy for whom it has been all Nepal all the time for months now. Most domestic actors refuse to even touch the topic. Most visiting actors miss the details and the gravity of the situation. I think Rajiv Goyal's having been born in America, but having been an ethnic Indian gives him both a detachment and a natural sense of empathy that truly carries the day. I expect this report to get widely quoted in Nepal for years.

Rajeev Goyal and Smita Narula are the co-authors. There also was a third speaker, Mahabir Chaudhari. He is a Dalit who runs a NGO in Nepal that has a membership of something like 36,000 people. That is huge. That could practically be a political party.

The most powerful presence in the audience was a Dalit Indian who was currently engaged in some kind of post-doctoral work at NYU now, or something equally high floating. He made the point that democracy was not enough, that affirmative action was needed if the plight of the Dalits is to be truly addressed.

I can totally relate to his story. When V.P. Singh became prime minister of India in 1989 on the affirmative action platform, a lot of high caste Indians actually left the country. Their claim was the country was now going down the drain. The caste system is way more complex than racism and sexism. It is weird. Not to say it is evil.

I got to meet Rajeev only two days back at the Krishna Pahadi event. I am so glad I did. And today I also had the honor of walking with him to the train station. He was born in Long Island. He is a cheerful person. I also got to meet two of his friends.

Krishna Pahadi At New York University

Smita seemed to really keep up with the news on Nepal. She kept making casual references to many details of what is going on in Nepal.

Smita drew the broad framework during her talk, and Rajeev came in and filled the details with his acutely told stories that really brought the caste issue to life. He said most everyone he met in Nepal wanted to know what caste "Goyal" was. Go figure. Then he talked about the one Dalit teacher at the school he taught at. And how the Bahun students would all sit on the front benches, and the Dalits would huddle among themselves in the back.

This reminds me of some work I did and am doing for the Dalits in my homevillage in southeast Nepal. Here are 126 photos that show my brother Santosh distributing school supplies to Dalit children. The village has had a primary school for the longest time. But the Dalit children did not attend. There was this social barrier. The non-Dalits feel if the Dalits start going to school who will work in the fields. And the Dalits internalized that sentiment. I used my bulley pulpit. Because you are in America, you are a big shot in the village. So word was spread that Paramendra wants all the Dalit children to start going to school. That did it. That was the carrot, my "good" name. The stick was if locals create hurdles, Paramendra will not fund the building of that wall that needs to be added to the school building. But being realistic I also hired three private Dalit tutors who help the same students during off school hours. And all this cost very little money in dollar terms. By Dalits in the village in this case, I mean the Musahars, Chamars, Doms, Dusads, and even the Muslims. The Muslims in the village get treated like Dalits. I hope to expand on this whole experiment.

The Musahars in my homevillage are the most cheerful people I ever met. They are my favorite people. To me it is not even a caste crusade. It is just my personal memory of them that keeps me going on this mini project.

Curiously my father and my uncle have been two people who have not received any extortion letters from the Maoists. Some people in the village think I am a Maoist! If that is what it takes for them to "behave," fine by me.

Rajeev told several stories. One was about the Dalit teacher at school going to the teashop but not sitting with everyone else to drink tea, washing his own cup after he was done. These are scenes I am very aware of, but it takes a Rajeev Goyal to retell the story with a freshness I could not. Another is of the same teacher getting "disappeared" by the Chief District Officer. He got apparently falsely accused of being a Maoist. The state has come down heavily against the Dalits as a community. If this were Yugoslavia and not Nepal, you would be calling it ethnic cleansing.

Rajeev's presentation was poignant.

A lively question and answer session followed. And it continued on for long after the program was officially declared over. There were free-flowing conversations. And Rajiv offered me a free coke at the end.