Sunday, October 02, 2005

100,000 Unarmed Maoist Cadres


My figures might be off the mark, but let's say the Maoists have 100,000 unarmed cadres and 10,000 armed cadres.

My suggestion would be to pull back the 10,000 armed cadres deep into the jungles where the RNA can not find them even if they tried. Move around if you have to. Play hide and seek if you have to. Because it is not a question of defending physical territory. The Maoists do not need to defend an inch of territory.

Absolutely no abductions and extortions. Even if you call them education and donations, halt them, stop them.

And mobilize the 100,000 unarmed cadres. These cadres are physically safe. The state security forces may not attack them just because they belong to the Maoist party. If unarmed cadres doing peaceful organizing are physically attacked, that would be a serious violation of some major international laws. So your unarmed cadres are protected by national and international laws. Just keep track of them. Document any attacks and publicize them immediately.

So, no, your unarmed cadres do not need physical protection from your armed cadres.

And, very important, as important as doing all this, engage in the war of words. Use words like they were bullets. Publicize all this on a regular basis. This is where the real fight is now. At the level of words. Always keep one step ahead of the Monarchists. Follow all they say, all lies they spread. And counter them in real time. If they put out something false at one in the morning, you respond by two in the morning.

If you are already doing all this, but Ram Sharan Mahat is begging you to lay down your arms, and this and that, obviously you have not been doing a good job of fighting with words. Work on it.

Having 10,000 armed cadres on standby is expensive business. So if I were the Maoists, I would rather I had to do that for three than six months. And that is why it is important for the Maoists to truly act like there is a ceasefire and to give total political space to the seven party coalition. Because then the movement can be launched sooner and concluded sooner. The Maoists stand to save money. It makes more sense to save than extort. That saved money will help you after the peace talks are concluded.

Even if it is about money, it would make more sense for the Maoists to say during the peace talks later on, that it would really help if they could get $50,000 in foreign aid to attain a total transformation into a peaceful party. Or $60,000. That would be more money better, easier way. I can totally see that money coming if asked for in the right way. Powers that have been willing to give millions for peace will not mind giving away a five figure sum.

And what is this news from Jhapa about Maoist students shutting down schools? The Maoist leadership should also ask their student wing to step back.

On another note, Gagan Thapa's US trip is coming along really well. And Charlie Szrom, who I have nicknamed the American Gagan, will be in New York City some time this month. I get to meet him for the first time. So it will be like I get to meet the Nepali and American Gagans the same month.

The RCCC threatening the Supreme Court. Hah. Jab gidar ki maut aati hai, to o shahar ki taraf daudta hai.

In The News
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The Onus Is On The King


The Maoists Could Do More

The Maoists have refuted allegations of abductions and extortions. It is important that they are hitting back with words like this. They should do more of this and more often. When your enemies spread lies about you, and you don't hit back with rebuttals, the people end up believing the lies.

Maoists refute allegations of extortion, abduction NepalNews .... Krishna Bahadur Mahara said that the entire rank and file of the party were engaged in political and activities aimed at serving people as per the spirit of the ceasefire. He said it was not the policy of his party to `abduct’ teachers and students and that such reports were nothing but the ‘planned propaganda’ of the royal regime...... Mahara has also alleged the security forces of taking into custody their six unarmed cadres at Bahadurpur of Palpa district in western Nepal and executing them last week (Sep. 24). The Royal Nepalese Army, however, said the Maoist cadres were killed in two-way clashes after the security personnel opened fire in self-defense after they were attacked.

This war of words will take them much further. I urge them to offer rebuttals on a regular basis. I think now the question no longer is if there will be elections to a constituent assembly. It is only a matter of when, and which party will win the most votes, and which party will emerge the largest, second largest and so on.

It is only a matter of time that elections to a constituent assembly will be held in the country. The Maoists should function within two parameters.
  1. Do things that aid the peaceful mass movement for democracy so as to hasten the interim government and the constituent assembly. Continue the ceasefire, no abductions and extortions. Massive grass roots organizing. Major peaceful protest programs. Peaceful co-existence with the seven party coalition.
  2. Do things to try and emerge one of the largest parties in the country during and after the elections to a constituent assembly. They will also have a lot of time to do this after they have become part of the interim governemnt after the peace talks. So do it step 1, step 2, step 3. The time for competition among the parties will come. But that time is later. And there will be plenty of time.
By the way, I got to meet Howard Dean the other day: Dean Was In Town Yesterday. That was a great feeling. (What's Going On In Nepal, Email From Madhav Kumar Nepal, To: DFNYC)

The onus on the king has been building.
  • There is a widespread belief nationally and globally that the king did not react to the ceasefire the way he should have. It has become so obvious to the whole world the king's goal is not peace. Tell me of another instance anywhere else on earth where a major armed group declared a unilateral ceasefire. These Nepali Maoists did a really cutting edge thing. That was their best military move during the entire decade of their insurgency.
  • If it is also true the Maoists are not engaged in abductions and extortions, the king stands further exposed. Why are his people spreading lies? Since they failed to derail the ceasefire, now they want to spread lies about the Maoists?
The country needs a new constitution not because the 1990 constitution is wrong or inadequate, which it was, but because the country as is has no constitution. There is an unconstitutional government in power right now. There is this major constitutional vacuum.

The Maoist-Democrat alliance needs to vigorously fight the war of words. There has to be massive grass roots organizing by all eight parties. The work is to get hundreds of thousands of people out in the streets.

The RCCC has managed to attack the Supreme Court itself. That shows there is much desperation in the Monarchist camp. This has got to be one of their last hurrahs. The regime is slowly but surely imploding.

I have been telling my local DFNYC comrades, just wait a few months, Nepal is going to hit the world headlines. When people overflow into the streets in the hundreds of thousands.

A Contact Group comprised of the EU, US, UN and India is underway to being formed. That group is the one that will recognize Nepal's unilaterally declared interim government. All of Nepal's current ambassadors will get derecognized immediately.

Even the RPP is tilting towards coming out into the streets. That should really tell you which way the winds are blowing. If they don't take part in the street protests, they are going to disappear as a party. It is a question of survival.

In The News

    • Reciprocate ceasefire, hold talks with parties: European Parliament NeplNews .... welcomed the ceasefire declared by the CPN (Maoist) and calls for an indefinite extension of the Maoist ceasefire...... establish a Contact Group, made up of Nepal’s key partners and international organisations (the EU, the US, India and the UN), in order to provide coordinated international action with regard to Nepal....... provide rehabilitation for the 30,000 Kapilvastu villagers displaced by violent conflict...... renewed its firm call upon the Nepal government to re-establish the Tibetan Refugee Welfare Office (TRWO) in Kathmandu and to allow the representative office of the Dalai Lama to resume operations in providing relief services to Tibetan refugees as an implementing partner of the UNHCR........

    • Giri orders to register the land of National park to individuals ..... 13.79 hectare (407.14 kathha) of land at Bardiya's Kalwariphanta in the name of specific individuals ...... Luv Shumsher JB Rana, Siddhi Sumsher JB Rana, Bel Sumsher JB Rana and Phanindra Sumsher JB Rana..... Som Shumsher Rana had written to Dr Giri claiming that they missed out the registration of the land in the 2021 BS survey....... the District Development Committee Bardiya has seriously objected to the move.....

    • RPP criticizes the government's performance ..... the party will go for the agitation demanding restoration of the democracy...... RPP is in the view that formation of all party government is essential to find the negotiated settlement of the Maoist insurgency ..... Intra-party rift is widening in RPP over whether the party should side with the king or political parties.

    • Laborers organize protest against amendment in Labor Act Nepalnews.com, Nepal

    • Pro-democracy rallies continue Kathmandu Post, Nepal

    • Problems of Madhesis highlighted Gorkhapatra, Nepal Leaders of various political parties and intellectuals have expressed the view that the Madhesi community has been oppressed and neglected for centuries ...... Nepal Terai Intellectuals Society .... the media has also not given due coverage to the problems of the Madheshi community...... leader of Nepal Sadbhavana Party Devendra Mishra, CPN-UML leader Jitendra Dev, leader of Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandi Devi) Hridayesh Tripathi and a host of speakers said that the Madhesi community has still not got the right place in the national politics.......

    • Police Offices’ Renaming Reminds of Panchayat Days Himalayan Times, Nepal

    • ‘King wants new statute’ Himalayan Times, Nepal

    • Seven-party Front ‘keen’ to Avoid Friction With King Himalayan Times, Nepal “Giving up the desire to rule would solve the problem.” ..... “in the event the monarch does not act in the right light, Indian support to the alliance may further solidify.” ..... The King, however, can be said to be having three options — cracking the whip on political parties, playing the civic polls card or yielding to the demand for an all-party government.... a larger section of the political forces, including the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Rastriya Janshakti Party (RJP), however, are backing the idea of an all-party dispensation which would shape up as a measure of reconciliation.

    • Stir to be more intense after Tihar: Leaders ..... a well-managed and much bigger people’s movement will be launched this winter. It would culminate in the termination of the political crisis in the country...... another stage of the movement would be started after the Dashain-Tihar interval. “An ocean of people will be seen in the capital this winter that will sweep away the monarchy and its autocracy altogether,” said Yubraj Karki, central committee member of the CPN-UML........ thousands would court arrests and prisons would overflow with activists, and it would result in what the Nepalis have been dreaming of for the past two centuries. “Autocracy will be thrown out of the scene as it happened to Hitler, Suharto and many other dictators in history. We strongly hope the King of Nepal may not have to meet the fate that the King of Iran met” ........ Krishna Sitaula, Nepali Congress central committee member, said despite the government’s threat to brand anybody who contacts the Maoists as a terrorist, the seven political parties would continue their efforts to hold talks with the Maoists and try and bring them to mainstream politics......... the King has created two pillars — the Maoists’ activities and the Royal Commission for Corruption Control (RCCC). The first failed with the unilateral ceasefire, and the second failed after Sher Bahadur Deuba and Prakash Man Singh challenged the RCCC ........ Tanka Rai of the CPN-ML said the King’s allegation that foreign money has flooded the capital was a direct insult to the local people. “The King should either prove it or retract his statement.......

    • Govt Defends RNA Action The Ministry of Defence said in a press release on Saturday that the action taken by the RNA against three of it’s servicemen in reference to the Maina Sunuwar case was in accordance with the country’s prevailing law. It said even though the court martial handed down a six-month jail sentence on the accused, in addition to suspension of promotion for two years and ordered to pay compensation worth Rs 100,000 to Sunuwar’s family, the three accused officers served six months in army custody. The ministry expressed deep regret over comments made by Human Rights Watch that the action taken by the RNA against the guilty was a “cosmetic gesture” and said the army’s action has sent a clear signal that those guilty of rights abuses will be punished irrespective of their ranks.

    • Global law body fears new crackdown in Nepal Peninsula On-line, Qatar

    • Schools bow down to Maoist threat, over 600 students flee PeaceJournalism.com, Nepal
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