Friday, September 09, 2005

Caution: Alliance Approaching





The king detaches himself from the army and the gang of non-royal/unroyal monarchists. That is the price he pays to keep the monarchy. The royals will have the option to stay on in a ceremonial capacity. That is as far as the democrats would be willing to do. But that might already have been yesterday.

But the king has not done anything to date to show the world he might opt for something like that. And so that leaves room only for a strong Maoist-Democrat alliance. How to make that alliance strong like steel? So as to usher in peace, democracy and progress into the country as soon as possible?

Seven Party Democratic Alliance
  1. Acknowledge the major ideological shift taken by the Maoists under the leadership of Dr. Baburam Bhattarai. The Maoists might have started out with the goal of a communist republic. But now they have shifted to accepting a multi-party framework, right to property and things like that. That is huge.
  2. Forget the 1999 House. Revise your common minimum program. Turn it into a three point program. Interim government, constituent assembly, democratic republic.
  3. Approach the Maoists with that CMP. Tell them, if it is not about the king and the monarchists, then their sole focus should be to deal with the democrats. Since they have already made their ideological shift away from the classic Maoist dictum of "power flows through the barrel of a gun," they might as well totally disarm.
  4. Offer to agree to their land-to-the-tiller land reform program in return. Turn the three point program into a four point program.Interim government, constituent assembly, democratic republic, land-to-the-tiller land reform.
  5. Or at least a partial disarmament. Down to 3,000 armed cadres from the current level, to be integrated into the state army once the state power is acquired. How do you believe they did that? They should agree to allow international human rights monitors into all their military installations. There is of course a five year goal to have an army only 30,000 strong or less.
  6. Form an eight member committee to draft a new constitution. I recommend this as a starting point: Proposed Democratic Republican Constitution. All each party has to do is make three columns: (a) articles the party agrees with, (b) articles the party disagrees with and why, and (c) articles the party would like to add, subtract or modify and why. Keep the conversation public. Try to agree on as many things as possible. Things you can not agree on, that is what a Constituent Assembly is for. On the other hand, if you can agree on it all, we might as well skip the Constituent Assembly. The interim government gets six months to get the people to accept the new constitution in a referendum, and another six to hold elections to a new parliament. Let's face it, even after an Assembly is formed, it will still be the leaders of these eight parties banging heads. Why will they not band heads now?
  7. Launch a massive nationwide peaceful protest of the eight party alliance.
  8. Once the protest approaches a critical mass - say 500,000 people out in the streets for two weeks - declare an interim government unilaterally.
Maoists
  1. You are republicans. You should be working to prove the king is irrelevant. You can not sensibly put forth strategies where the entire success depends on possible positive actions by the king. So forget the king.
  2. You have already made an ideological shift from "power flows through the barrel of a gun" to a peaceful transformation of the state. You have already made a shift from a communist republic to a democratic republic.
  3. Look at your brilliant move of a ceasefire. Your best military move to date. It is like you managed to hit every single soldier in the RNA with a taser gun. You froze them all.
  4. Go a few more steps down that path. Do it the smart way. As a guerrilla leader today, Prachanda could not kill off 50,000 RNA soldiers. But as the Prime Minister owing to being the leader of the largest single party in the parliament, he would be Commander in Chief, and he could legitimately lay off 50,000 soldiers.
  5. You do not envision a Maoist party that is within a multi-party framework but still gets to keep a standing army, do you? My proposal of reduction and integration is the fairest.
  6. If the quickest way from here to having an interim government within a democratic republic is for you to unilaterally disarm, will you do it? If not, why not?
  7. If you disarm, it will be like you sent 80,000 RNA soldiers into the deep-freezer. You could not possibly kill off 80,000 RNA soldiers through your methods in the past. But you could send them all into a deep freezer through this other creative method.
  8. If disarming on your own is the quicker way to achieve state power, why inflict delays on the movement?
To Both
  1. Work on a common minimum program. Bang heads.
  2. Work towards a unilateral Maoist disarmament if the king keeps talking nonsense.
  3. Go for an interim government.
  4. Start work on a new constitution now. Do not wait until you have a Constituent Assembly. That work will also allow the Maoists to prove their credibility on some basic issues of democracy. I trust them. But they need to engage in some more trust building activities for the rest of the world.
By the way, I have decided to volunteer for Norman and Eric in the New York City local elections to celebrate the Maoist ceasefire. Norman Siegel is running for Public Advocate, which is like one step behind Mayor. Eric is running for City Council. I had been telling both campaigns I am too busy with Nepal to give time.

And there is word Bharat Mohan Adhikari and Lokendra Bahadur Chand might be in town soon. I look forward to meeting both. As are many other local democrats. I just happen to know Adhikari's son-in-law and Chand's son. I was on the phone with Sudeep earlier in the evening. He is in Minnesota.

Deputy Prime Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikari's Daughter Speaks Out (March 4)

The September 16 rally will still be held. Now it is to send a message to the 170 heads of state. To the world community.

In The News
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Irresponsible Response To Ceasefire



The king has been irresponsible in how he has responded to the ceasefire. He is basically like, a ceasefire is not enough, surrender! That response presumes you are in this tremendous position of strength. And he plainly is not. He is politically the most isolated head of state on earth with an army that has the worst human rights records on earth. That is not strength.

The Maoist guerrillas fight an asymmetrical war. The very fact that there is a political and military stalemate shows they have been strong enough to bring the state army to a standstill. What changed in the past few months that has made the king or the state army stronger? The only thing that has happened is parties that refused to even consider the Constituent Assembly idea are now republican. The economy is in shambles. It is almost like the king is blind or something, or at least politically.

What exactly is he suggesting? Two possibilities. One, that a monarchy is better suited to run a country. Two, that it is not the monarchy, that it is him, that he is a more capable individual than any of the aspiring democrats, than Prachanda or Baburam.

I am not even going into the monarchy-democracy debate. I have better things to do with my time. As for the king's individual abilities, if he thinks it is not the monarchy-democracy debate, that he is more capable as an individual, he will have the option to float a party within a republic. Let the political marketplace decide if you are more capable.

It boils down to having a feudal mindset, about having an attitude problem, about not getting democracy. His love for an absolute monarchy is so strong, he would rather end up with a republic. His lack of flexibility points to that direction.

He seems to have a one point agenda: to not allow elections to a Constituent Assembly. The thing about an Assembly is, if the Maoists were to suddenly disappear, vanish, I would still want a Constituent Assembly. That is a no compromise issue for me. Assembly and federalism. The details can be worked out.

So if his one point agenda is to not allow elections to a Constituent Assembly, and if a Constituent Assembly is the only meeting point between the Maoists and the democrats, then that leaves room only for a strong coalition between the Maoists and the democrats to look for all possible options to reach that goal. Then it is not about dialogue and peace talks, it is about a showdown. Tactics change.

If the king had been reasonable, it would have been possible to go for a Constituent Assembly where a constitutional monarchy would have been guaranteed. Now we instead move towards a Constituent Assembly where a republic is guranteed. The people will not have the option to vote whether they want a constitutional monarchy or not. Maybe money thus saved will go to build schools and hospitals. Because a republic is the new meeting ground between the Maoists and the democrats.

Precisely because the king has been unreasonable in the way he has responded to the ceasefire, it is extra important for the Maoists to maintain it.

The seven parties need also to come up with a detailed program for massive nationwide peaceful protests. That is the only option.

Prachanda, Do Not Break The Ceasefire
Positive Signs
The King Should Now Move To Step 2
King Cancels UN Visit
To Trust Or Not To Trust The Maoists
The Nepali Rasputins Want A Revolution
RNA, Declare Your Own Ceasefire, You Have No Choice
After Ganapathy, A Ceasefire
What Is Prachanda Doing?
Is Prachanda For Real?
To: Dr. Baburam Bhattarai
Baburam Bhattarai, Pramod Aryal, Ram Chandra Poudel

In The News
  • Nepal leadership needs to work with the rebels, if peace is to ... OhmyNews International, South Korea At a time when the Nepali people are desperately craving respite from a long and bloody struggle, it's a surprise to many that the government has been seemingly unwilling to respond in earnest to the recent ceasefire declared by the Maoists..... the government has denied any third-party participation in the peace process as it sees itself "capable of solving its internal matters on its own." ..... "the royal government lacks the competence, authority, and legitimacy to speak on behalf of the people of Nepal." ....... the opposing parties are planning to forge a defining dialogue with the rebels and also urge them to lay down their arms completely to help create a profound political understanding and fight the autocratic government through peaceful means.
  • Guerrillas displace 800 families of security men in Nepal Xinhua, China Some 800 families of security personnel have been displaced from their ancestral homes in Nepal's eastern hilly districts .......The guerrillas forcibly dislodged the families from Paanchthar,Bhojpur, Okhaldhunga and Khotang districts, asking them to call back their relatives working in the army...... Most of the displaced families have fled to India and other countries
  • Telephone services disrupted in Eastern districts NepalNews Jhapa, Ilam, Morang, Sunsari, Dhankuta, Bhojpur, Sankhuwasabha, Tajlejung and Paanchthar
  • UN envoy on torture to assess Nepal situation: NewKerala.com, India Manfred Nowak, the United Nations' special rapporteur on torture, is to arrive in Kathmandu Saturday on a fact-finding mission..... The Kathmandu-based Centre for Victims of Torture, an NGO, estimates nearly 100,000 cases of torture are reported countrywide each year, affecting around 20,000 families. Nowak's visit comes about two months after a visit by UN secretary-general Kofi Annan's special adviser Lakhdar Brahimi.
  • US proposes sanctuary for Tibetan refugees from Nepal: NewKerala.com, India Bush's Refugee Admissions Programme proposal for fiscal 2006, conveyed to the Congress Aug 30, includes a new programme to resettle "certain Tibetans from Nepal in the US..... resettle a section of Tibetans living in Nepal, particularly those who have been in the kingdom for several years and are considered especially vulnerable to deportation to China....... The US decision was made after consultations over a long period with the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), the administrative arm of Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama, based in Dharamsala in India, a statement by International Campaign for Tibet (ICT), an NGO with chapters in the US and Europe........ The ICT in a recent survey said it was getting more dangerous for Tibetan refugees to flee to India via Nepal as the Nepal government was intent on improving ties with China and had begun cracking down on the refugees....... According to the CTA, 125,381 Tibetan refugees were living in India, Nepal and Bhutan, as of March 2004, with some 2,500 new arrivals each year from Tibet. Approximately 10,000 Tibetans are living in the west.
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