Gagan Thapa Released

Kudos to the judiciary.

There have also been rumors the new Supreme Court chief justice has scheduled hearings on the possibility of reviving the House. If he could engineer that, democracy could get back on track. Then the parties could head on to the other three items on their agenda, ultimately taking the country through a Constituent Assembly.

I am personally very pleased with this piece of news.

In many ways Gagan Thapa has become the face of the movement. It is not Girija Koirala, not Madhav Kumar Nepal. Both carry the baggage from the 1990s, Girija more than most. Their reluctance to conduct internal reforms in their respective parties has also got in the way of the democracy movement.

Once the charges have been totally dropped, I am going to rename this blog and rewrite the proposed constitution to make room for a ceremonial monarchy.

People like Gagan Thapa and Baburam Bhattarai should be sitting in Singha Durbar working on policy, not hiding in the jungle, or protesting in the streets. That is why we need democracy.

21st Century Nepal Online Think Tank And SEBS

I emailed thousands of SEBSers inviting them to join this online think tank: 21st Century Nepal. So far the response has been tepid. I guess I will have to fill the coffers through Google Scholar. Through the free service, you are basically tapping the best minds on the planet. The heck with SEBS.

The King's Biratnagar Visit

I guess he is trying to show municipality elections can be held. Look, ma, no hands.

I disagree. I don't think the elections can be held. That is my prime objection to the elections. Got to face the facts. Can't bypass dialogue with the Maoists.

In The News

• Gagan Thapa Released Legal News From Nepal The Special Court today ordered the release of former general secretary of Nepal Students’ Union Gagan Kumar Thapa saying there was no ground to keep him in custody. The court freed Thapa saying the government charges against him were not clear. Thapa was released on condition that he would present himself before the court as and when summoned. Earlier today, government prosecutors filed a case against him in the Special Court on sedition charges seeking three-year jail and Rs 3,000 fine on him. Thapa was arrested on July 27 for shouting anti-monarchy slogans during a pro-democracy rally organized by the civil society on July 25.
• Court orders Thapa’s release NepalNews Talking to reporters upon his release, Thapa said if fighting for ‘loktantra’ (democracy) was equated with treason, he would be more than happy to repeat such ‘mistake’ time and again....... Thapa has already announced his candidacy for the top job of the NSU during its tenth convention that kicked off in western town of Pokhara on Sunday...... Nearly a dozen student leaders have announced their candidacy for the top job of their organisation.
• Fierce clashes likely in coming months: Pathak NepalNews .... massive armed clashes between the security forces and Maoists are likely sometime around Dashain and Tihar festivals (October) .....“The Maoists are forcibly recruiting one person from every single household in their strongholds. They are ordering to manufacture bamboo baskets while their donation spree is on the rise” ...... The rebels use ‘doko’ or bamboo baskets to carry their wounded comrades after the clashes...... also accused the state of preparing for war with same speed.
• King visits Biratnagar NepalNews From Koshi Hospital, his Majesty walked on foot up to the Regional Police Office at Traffic Chowk ..... This is His Majesty’s first visit to the districts since February 1
  
• Locals fear backlash as bodies of lynched rebels remain unattended NepalNews
• Maoists rob banks in Sindhupalchowk NepalNews
• King grants audience to Thapa NepalNews Thapa flew to Dhankuta, his hometown, by a chartered helicopter to ‘welcome’ the monarch who was there Saturday afternoon. Reports said the King granted Thapa a brief audience....... A couple of days ago, he met Nepali Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala, who commands the seven-party alliance, and discussed the current political impasse and its possible outlet.
• Maoists place bombs along Siddhartha Highway, traffic blocked NepalNews
• Indian manufacturer blames on poor maintenance of INSAS NepalNews
• Locals lynch suspected Maoists in Banke NepalNews
• India rejects Nepal complaint on Rifles – Nepal tilts towards ... India Daily, NJ
• Nepal military loses Indian arms to rebels Calcutta Telegraph the monarch’s military is ill-trained and has neither the numbers nor the firepower to hold its own..... arms supplied by India and meant for the RNA are landing in the hands of the Maoists..... confiscated 70 Insas (Indian) assault rifles with 30,000 rounds of ammunition, 80 self-loading rifles (probably outdated Indian-made 7.62 mm) with 21,000 rounds of ammunition, an 81-mm mortar and explosives...... Both the RNA and the Maoist rebels are fighting with Indian weapons — the RNA with rifles and ammunition supplied by India and the Maoists with Indian weapons snatched from the king’s army...... the Maoists have been saying that their struggle to overthrow the monarchy and establish a republic was in the phase of “strategic offensive”..... the king’s army was still too weak and its abilities were doubtful. Nepal has been asking India for weapons desperately as well as scouring the world markets for arms and ammunition since the February 1 coup...... The Prime Minister reiterated India’s stated position that constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy are the twin pillars of stability in Nepal.
  
• India rejects Nepal’s rifle complaint, offers training Indian Express
• Nepal downplaying efficacy of INSAS rifles: experts IANS
• Volatile Nepal teetering on the brink of collapse Lexington Herald Leader, KY a state teetering on the brink of a collapse that could result in huge bloodletting and international confrontation ..... Maoist rebels are convinced of ultimate victory..... an army that has one of the worst human rights records in the world...... a country where they can be lynched by vigilantes, abducted by the Maoists, disappeared by government security forces and tortured or killed by any of the three..... a million so far -- have chosen to flee to India ..... Rebels here control roads and thoughts and bodies in the countryside and the security services can take control of the courts, the media, the telecommunications systems and people's lives in the cities....... In May, the United Nations opened its largest human rights monitoring office in Katmandu since it established one in Rwanda. Its mission: to monitor both sides -- the king and the Maoists. It also has been investigating the vigilante actions of anti-Maoist militias....... The democratic parties are numerous, but most of the power resides with the Nepali Congress Party and the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist). While they may represent the country's best chance of representative government, Nepalis tend to see them as nepotistic, corrupt and untrustworthy..... To support the increasingly autocratic King Gyanendra is hard to justify, especially in the era of President Bush's stated aim of spreading democracy...... ignoring a country such as Nepal -- or Rwanda, or Bosnia or Afghanistan -- as it descends into chaos can have a costly impact later in global stability and in lives both foreign and American...... Nepal, much like other ignored and apparently insignificant countries like Cambodia, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia and Rwanda, threatens to sneak up on the consciousness and conscience of a world currently preoccupied by the conflicts in Islamic nations.
• UML leaders slam Nepal Kathmandu Post, Nepal
• UML mulls over Monday meet minutes Himalayan Times
• UML Holds Standing Committee Meet Himalayan Times
• Nepal rebels threaten to close Unilever plant Peninsula On-line, Qatar
• Indian PM reviews Nepal security situation, hopes King will honour ... Asian Tribune, Thailand
• Guerrillas loot banks in central Nepal Xinhua, China
• Suspected Maoists presence in Bangladesh cause concern for SAARC ... NewKerala.com Bangladesh Home Ministry has asked the intelligence agencies to carry out an investigation to ascertain well before the upcoming South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit whether the Nepal-based Maoist guerrillas are active in the country or not. .... following press reports that Nepalese Maoists are active in Bangladesh.
  
• Bangladesh for observer Status for China in SAARC: official Hindustan Times
• Drawn into the arms of the MAOISTS Newsday, NY
• India rejects Nepal complaint over assault rifle RedNova.com, TX
• NSU General Convention begins Kantipur Online, Nepal The convention was inaugurated by NC President Girija Prasad Koirala.... Koirala warned that the country would move towards the republican set up if the palace did not correct its mistakes on time.
• Popular student leader charged with sedition, released later Outlook (subscription), India
• Gagan Thapa Released Himalayan Times, Nepal
• Gagan Thapa released on general date Kantipur Online, Nepal
• Nepal "shocked and saddened" by assassination of Sri Lankan FM PeaceJournalism.com, Nepal
• India: Hijacked Planes Can Be Shot CBS News
• EU raps Nepal rebels for using child soldiers Gulf Times, Qatar
• NSU convention to be ‘stormy affair’ Himalayan Times, Nepal the meet aims to achieve the goal of full democracy and also that a president should be elected by consensus, but the convention is likely to be a platform of tough competition for the top post
• Will Sticks Lick Broadband Fix? Newsweek Though the Berkshires are only hours away from superwired citadels like New York and Boston, in terms of telecommunications this might as well be Nepal...... The NSU plans to appeal to the Nepali congress top drop all clauses relating to the monarchy from its statute and lean towards a democratic republican set-up.
• Pandey leaves for China Gorkhapatra, Nepal
• Formidable defence of democracy Kathmandu Post, Nepal a work of great erudition that challenges the allegations to the post-1990 democratic dispensation with irrefutable facts, evidences, and logical explanations..... a powerful answer to the propaganda the royal government has spread widely that democracy was not suitable for the soil...... a blow-by-blow account of how mere twelve years of democratic polity changed the economic, social, and political spheres of the country...... a plethora of credible information and evidences..... the economic rationale of the decisions the democratic government had taken ..... quantified the impacts of decisions with the help of data, charts and graphs, which no sane person can arguably refute ...... the Nepali Congress government did not only pursue the liberal market policies, but also improved the living standard of the poorest segment of the population. He has vividly explained the efforts undertaken by the democratic government to enhance education, health, and priority human sectors...... has explained exclusion and discrimination, dependence on foreign aid, Arun III debacle, refugee impasse, corruption perceptions, Maoist war, and other pertinent issues..... the recognition of the fault lines of the society ..... dualistic education system, weak or soft state situation, low productivity, disparity, and centralization as some of the fault lines that need urgent address to avoid class struggle and conflict.
• Govt torturing me: Sujata Kathmandu Post, Nepal accused the government of making "repeated attempts" to harass her...... fled the country immediately after the February 1 royal takeover "to campaign in India, Europe and the USA for restoration of democracy in Nepal", accused the government of torturing her mentally with frequent visits of officials from the controversial Royal Commission for Corruption Control (RCCC) ...... "Now they have started a planned attack against Sushma Koirala Memorial Trust, which is run with money managed from donations," Sujata told reporters at a press conference in her residence. "After they could not establish any charge against me personally, they have started attacking a social trust." .... revealed that she has already provided every information demanded by the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA)..... "Some men in our party are helping the palace secretly to create obstacles for me to contest party posts in the upcoming general convention" .... said she would contest the elections but wants her cousins Dr Shasank Koirala and Dr Sekhar Koirala to observe "patience" this time.

The Movement Has Been Gathering Much Momentum

Protests Protests Protests Protests Protests Protests Protests

The streets have been warming. There is definite momentum. There is no stopping the movement now.

Baburam Bhattarai On The Maoists' Army

In a recent interview Dr. Baburam Bhattarai came across as unclear on the issue to me. So far I have taken him for his honesty on the possibilities of a Maoist-Democrat alliance. But his recent remarks are of concern. He is suggesting the RNA will be disbanded, and the PLA will take its place. I can imagine that to be the internal Maoist thinking. That is understandable.

But when it is time to finally sit down and talk, I see something like this happening.

RNA = 80,000 fighters
PLA = 10,000 fighters
Size of the unified army to be in 5 years = 30,000

So PLA gets to send 3,000 of its fighters into the unified state army. Not as separate battalions. There has to be total integration. And the army gets 5 years to lay off 53,000 of its fighters. It might be possible to seek foreign aid to facilitate a retraining of those individuals into the private sector of the economy. Likewise for the 7,000 Maoists in uniform who will not make it.

Something like that has to happen.

I request Dr. Bhattarai to think along these lines if he is serious about a Maoist-Democrat alliance.

The Maoist rank and file, armed and otherwise, if they are to draw state salaries, they should hope to do so as (1) elected officials, (2) school teachers, and (3) primary health care workers. Very few of them will stay in uniform.

On the other hand, if the Maoists are unflinching, the Democrats will have to opt to steal their political and social thunder. It is possible to herald a democracy, even a republic, without Maoist cooperation. That is not my first choice, but that is sure an option.

And my thinking is based on an extrapolation of what Dr. Bhattarai has already said. He has said he is for a Democratic Republic as a first choice, and a Constituent Assembly that might retain a ceremonial monarchy as a second, final, minimal choice. Once that happens, the Maoists will engage in a peaceful transformation of the state to ultimately achieve a commuist utopia which might take a hundred, or a thousand years. Which means, post-peace, the Maoists do not have any political use for an army of any kind.

What I am saying is not that different from what they are saying, are on record saying.

In The News

• Moriarty: Nepal Desperate For Reconciliation Spotlight ..... there is a national security waiver where if the Secretary of State feels that she is worried that the development in Nepal represented threat to the national security of the United States , she can waive the requirement and go ahead with the security assistance...... We are absolutely afraid something might happen to this country that will allow the Maoists to take over. Obviously, we don’t want that to happen..... Maoists are still extorting, killing people and committing all crimes in the country...... There is nothing to be said against trying to figure out whether the Maoists are ready to renounce violence. People have to be very careful and not pretend that the Maoists have changed....... I have been misquoted and I have been accused of saying that the parties have to come crawling on their bellies to the government. I am not saying that at all. What I have been saying is that the government has to reach out and the palace has to reach out to the parties. If palace does so, the parties need to respond....... we look upon our relations with Nepal through our own eyes or our own perspective and our own interest..... there was discussion between President Bush and Indian prime minister Dr. Manmohan Singh (recently) in the Oval Office about the status and affairs of Nepal ....... the Maoist insurgency has grown into the most serious threat even as outside powers have tried to figure out how to respond to the move of February 1...... Without any reservation, Beijing does not want to see any chaos in Nepal and Beijing does not want to see the so-called Maoist regime trying to export its revolution towards its neighbors. I see nothing but desires on the part of China to play helpful role here. I don’t see any intention on the part of Beijing to try to use this uncertainty and confusion...... the worst enemies of freedom of Nepal as far as I can see are the Maoists. Their actions say so and their words say so. Their formula for the future is horrific as their actions now...... I don’t think any such meeting between President George Bush and King Gyanendra will take place (on the sidelines of UN summit).
• Narahari Acharya: For A New Democratic Nepal
  
• Chief Justice Poudel: Priority To House Revival Case
  
• Shun The Status-Quoist Kantipur
• Countless Gagan Thapas by Khagendra Sangraula
  
• Wagle's Experiment Kantipur
  
• CPN (M) Statement
• Prachanda Statement
  
• Nepal's Human Rights Record Threatens Military Aid New York Times
• Don't Legitimize Nepal Rule Indian Express
  
• Amnesty Condemns Nepal's Vigilantes: Report