The Bombing Of A Bus

This really made me think. I was beginning to wonder if the recent dialogue between the Maoists and the parties was not the lifting-the-emergency moment on the part of the Maoists. I was getting ready to propose a hardliner approach to the democrats.

But I decided to wait for a day. To see as to which group will take responsibility for the dastardly act. This blast has been a turning point.

The Maoists have come forth apologizing for it. This is the second best thing they could have done, the best being never having let it happen in the first place. They need to internally probe this incident thoroughly if they are not to lose the recent gained limited trust of the democrats.

The blast has had a serious jolt on the peace process and the process of Maoist-democrat reconciliation.

June 7

• Bus attack further dims hopes for peace in Nepal ANALYSIS ... Bangkok Post, Thailand ..... Hardly anyone believes that King Gyanendra, who seized power on Feb 1 with a promise of peace, will be able to keep his word...... He may not be very popular, but King Gyanendra is far less loathed than representatives of Nepal's political parties. Often decried as corrupt and preoccupied with clinging to power ...... The Maoists are now active in 70 of Nepal's 75 districts, and in wide swathes of the country the government is nowhere to be seen....... Kirti Nidhi Bista, who was appointed by the king, demands ``outside help to end the conflict''. ..... the king, who named himself prime minister ...... Brigadier-General Dipak Gurung, the army's spokesman, frankly conceded that Nepal lacked the resources to fully ``neutralise'' the Maoists. ...... Unless the king comes up with successes soon, he might be the one who ushers in the end of the monarchy.
• Nepal rebels 'regret' bus deaths, launch probe ABC News ..... they had been aiming for a passing army convoy instead...... at least 72 people were wounded ...... "We are seriously pained at the death of a large number of … supporters of the people's war," Prachanda said, adding the guerrillas were investigating if "infiltrators" were responsible....... the rebels have not been known to aim for civilians ..... at least 20 people, including 14 soldiers and policemen, had been killed in a gun battle on Monday in Kailali district, a Maoist stronghold ...... "So far six bodies of the Maoists have been recovered from the site" ...... Monday's blast hurled the bus several feet in the air, left a deep crater on the road and flung bodies and body parts around the site, by the side of a river......
  
• Nepal Floats Tender To Buy Arms SouthAsia Network ..... The government of Nepal has floated a global tender to procure weapons and other equipment from foreign manufacturers. ...... the Armed Police Force that was created recently, causing the government to double its security spending from 1.5 percent of the GDP in 2000 ..... The latest advertisement points to a deepening rift between India and Nepal over military supplies.
  
• women dance naked for rain in Nepal Rediff, India The women gathered at a local school, smeared their faces with black powder and danced naked
• 100 Nepalese women dance naked for rain Monsters and Critics.com "People in this area believe Mahadev will be happy and provide rain once women perform such a nude dance"
  
• Authorities seek explanation of Nepal bar chief United We Blog, Nepal Shambhu Thapa (pic), president of Nepal Bar Association, umbrella organization of some 15 thousand Nepali lawyers....... Kathmandu District Administration office seeks explanation from Shambhu Thapa, NBA president, for the Saturday rally of lawyers...... “All I am doing is for the shake of constitution and independent judiciary” ..... One of the top and most successful lawyers in the country, he also earns top bucks. He has..largest and busiest law firm in Kathmandu and charges up to Rs. 20 thousands per pleading..... he pleads for up to five cases in a day ...... authorities. ..have not resumed the service of his mobile .... “It is understood that you led a rally in Putalisadak, Bagbazaar area,” the letter signed by Sushil Ghimire, Chief District Officer (CDO) of Kathmandu reads, “ignoring the orders from this office not to hold any kind of rally and mass meeting on that area.” ...... “It is understood that you have violated the point 6 (3) (A) of Local Administration Act 2028,” letter claims, “clarify your stand within 3 days why we shouldn’t take action against you as per the provision of point 6 (4) of the same act.” ....... “I have called on a meeting of fellow and senior lawyers tomorrow..We will discuss the matter in the meeting. It is not just about me. It is about all of us lawyers. We will have one voice and act accordingly.”
• UN to probe Nepal bus blast(LEAD):- Webindia123, India Annan condemned as "senseless" and "utterly reprehensible". .... "This terrible incident constitutes a grave breach of international humanitarian law, for which the perpetrators should be brought to justice," Martin said .....
• Maoists admit 'grave error' over Nepal bus blast Newindpress, India For the first time in the nine-year-old Maoist uprising in Nepal, the guerrillas have expressed regret over an attack .... Within minutes of the UN human rights monitoring team based here condemning the ambush and announcing it would send a team to investigate the incident, the top leader of the guerrillas, Prachanda aka Pushpa Kamal Dahal, issued a statement ..... statement said the Maoists had always condemned the army's use of civilians as "human shields" and followed the principle of not conducting any "military operation" against innocent civilians. .... Also for the first time, the rebel leader said action had been taken against the cadres and leaders involved in the ambush. "They have been suspended for now," he said....... He, however, expressed the fear that the ambush could have been engineered by "enemy forces" who had infiltrated the organisation and were trying to discredit it at a crucial time when the rebels are trying to forge an alliance with members of civil society and Nepal's political parties opposed to King Gyanendra.

June 6

• rebels blamed as 38 die in Nepal bus blast Telegraph.co.uk, UK ..... the bomb, which was planted in a bucket by the roadside, threw the bus 30 to 40 feet in the air. Wires leading from the blast site showed that it had been detonated from 200 yards away....... The Maoists, who are fighting to establish a republic, have frequently disrupted road transport but until now they have avoided causing mass casualties among civilians....... the Maoists now control about 80 per cent of the Himalayan kingdom, with state control limited to the few towns and isolated garrisons...... "International humanitarian law prohibits such wilful killing and mass murder committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population."
• ‘Review’ tag stays on Nepal arms lock Calcutta Telegraph, India ...... the RNA is understood to have asked for ammunition, rifles, bullet-proof gear and vehicles
  
• Former Nepal Premier Koirala meets Pranab Mukherjee Outlook (subscription) Mukherjee conveyed India's appreciation over the role Koirala has played in bringing together the seven mainstream parties on an agreed platform which could be the basis for a dialogue on an eventual political settlement based on multi-party democracy and constitutional monarchy..... Koirala has been suffering from acute bronchitis and weakness for some weeks
  
• Who are Nepal's Maoist rebels? BBC News, UK ..... The Nepalese Maoists have also made some "homegrown" modifications to Maoist ideology..... The Maoists say that the reason they have so much support is because most of their supporters have traditionally been treated as second-class citizens or worse...... Many analysts say this is the real explanation as to why such a seemingly anachronistic movement has made such dramatic headway...... they have become one of South Asia's most potent rebel groups, rivalling the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka...... The Maoists may not yet have the strength to win their "People's War" but they are too strong to lose it....... development cannot happen until the government gains even limited access to these areas, and access can only be achieved by using highly unpopular and potentially counterproductive military means against a well-organised guerrilla army.
• How to develop the Nepali economy Pressbox.co.uk (press release)
  
• Thapa offers free legal class to Dr Giri Kantipur Online, Nepal ..... Dr Giri's post (vice-chairman) is not recognized in the constitution.
• POLITICS-NEPAL: Battle of Perceptions Favouring King Inter Press Service (subscription), World ..... the nation's beleaguered political parties are finding it increasingly difficult to win public support for their pro-democracy protests. ..... But now he says the rebels have vanished. "They have all gone underground after the king took power. I don't feel insecure as before," he says. ...... Last week an alliance of parties staged a mock parliament in the capital Kathmandu to press for return of democratic rule. However, public participation was poor, signalling citizens' continued disenchantment with the parties. ....... What all this has done is create an impression of security in Nepal's urban centres that has extended to nearby rural areas, such as Pokhariya. Villagers in nearby Bara district also speak of improved security after the coup. ...... ”When the parties were in power, Maoist activity was very high,” says a local businessman who declined to give his name. ”All the businesses here had to pay protection money to keep the rebels away. They demanded huge sums as donations. But now, we are not being bothered. It's as if the Maoists have melted away,” he told IPS........ Sources close to the Maoists say the king's coup caught them unaware, resulting in confusion among their ranks. ........ the rebels have adopted a ”wait and see” approach as the situation unfolds, giving the royal government time to consolidate its position. ..... In the western hills where the rebellion first emerged, the Maoists are in virtual control of half a dozen districts. In the eastern hills and parts of the southern flatlands, called the Terai, the conflict is seesawing. ...... the government simply lacks the capability to win an offensive war against the Maoists. Its forces are mostly dug in defensive positions, protecting the towns and district headquarters....... in the battle of perceptions at least, the royal government appears to be winning, creating more difficulties for the parties. ...... But public perceptions can be fickle ..... A time will come when the mistakes will have piled up so high that the people will have nowhere to turn but to the parties. That will be the time when they will win support for their pro-democracy platform ...... But for now at least, the king appears to be on top of his game.
• Are We Heading Toward Rapid Militarization INSN ..... the Ministry of Defense proposed a budget of around Rs 18 billion (i.e. 1800 crore) and that it plans to increase this budget by 10 percent annually...... RNA plans to recruit and train 13,000 new solders. .... Army to civilian ratio = 1:265 Doctor to people ratio = 1:18439 ..... Cost to train a military personnel = 300,000 Cost to train a doctor (approx) = 300,000 (for 4 years) Cost to train a nurse (approx) = 150,00 (for 3 years)
  
• UML Democracy Bulletin 12
• Taming The King Of Nepal IHT ...... the king mounted a coup and became, once again, an absolute monarch..... Gyanendra seems to be attracted by the idea of a “guided democracy” similar to the partyless Panchayat system ..... Nepal is an ancient, highly stratified society that has not gone through any significant political revolution. ..... a monarch who snatched away the rights of the people.
• Ram Chandra Paudel For Democracy Sans Monarchy United We Blog Poudel has been kept in a warehouse (goadowan) of Agriculture Corporation in Damauli, Tanahu. He looked visibly overjoyed to see us in his room and welcomed us. Spirited Poudel began the conversation thus: you know, now the conflict in Nepal is between parliament verses king...... “This king is not fighting terrorism,” Poudel said. ...... We should never reconcile with the king ...... the political parties should remain cautious of the Maoists’ intention. “If Maoists express sincerity and strong commitment to democracy, negotiation with them can be considered,” he said. “But there won’t be any compromise with democracy.” ...... Once, he said, an army doctor along with a physiotherapist came to check his health on a helicopter from Kathmandu. They suggested me to continue watching Ram Dev, a popular program of health conducted by Ram Dev on TV. “Yes, these days I watch Asstha TV and follow what Ram Dev suggests for the backache,” he said. “Why they should spend so much money on helicopter. I could have gone to Kathmandu on a bus just in Rs. 200 and get treated,” he added....... He also strongly claimed that the current leadership should leave the position. “February 1 is the failure of the current leadership in all the parties and they must quit and let others come,” he said. ....
  
• Images From The Bus Massacre United We Blog

Power Does Not Necessarily Flow Through The Barrel Of A Gun: Maoists

I just visited the Maoists' website, just chanced around, a lazy Sunday morning thing to do, kind of.

Used to be the most prominent feature on their front page was the Mao line "Power flows through the barrel of a gun." Now that line is gone! This is huge. This is big. This is major. All democrats need to make note of this.

I am in a mood to celebrate.

These are the remaining quotes on the front page.

"The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles." -Karl Marx

"We don’t regard Marx's theory as something completed and inviolable; on the contrary, we are convinced that it has only laid the foundation stone of the science which socialists must develop in all directions if they wish to keep pace with life…"- Lenin

"Correctness and incorrectness of ideological and political line decides everything. If the line is correct everything will come in its way if it is wrong everything will be lost which one had before." - Chairman Mao

The Marx quote is a classic. You can not begudge the Maoists for that. Every educated peson on the planet is aware of it. Lenin's quote totally speaks of flexibility. Mao's quote also speaks of flexibility.

The Maoists are exhibiting flexibility. This has to be noticed. It is very hard for an organization like theirs to show such flexibility. It is much harder than it is for Girija. And now that they are, this has to be noticed. It will be a major mistake to not notice. Looks like the Maoists have really done their homework.

For the first time I see the Maoists moving towards a soft landing. The only people who could mess it up would be the democrats. The non-Maoists need to do all in their capacity to ease this transition. Peace asks for a price. Moving beyond the past is one of those prices.

A Maoist-democrat solidarity will quicken the demise of the autocratic regime in place, and it will also disarm the Maoists. That is two birds with one stone. And that is just the beginning.

This also shows the Maoists have moved on to a new kind of solidarity. The Prachanda-Baburam brief imbroglio episode is over, and that is great news. It is easier to deal with a unified party that is moving towards common sense.

The Maoists have to be rewarded for this newfound flexibility. And the way to do that is to enagage them. The democrats need to enage them. Welcome their overtures for fuller dialogue.

I am getting hopeful.

I am feeling particularly happy right now. This is not the false happiness of a king "lifting" an emergency. This feels more genuine. In politics your word is all you got. If people can not take you on your word, you hurt your credibility, and your chances.

I sent this email to the Maoists a few days back:

Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2005 06:28:36 -0700 (PDT)
From: "Paramendra Kumar Bhagat" paramendra@yahoo.com>
Subject: To: Prachanda, Baburam
To: "Maobadi Nepal" info@cpnm.org>, "Nepal Maoists" krishnasenonline@yahoo.com>

Hello "Comrades!"

This is the second time I am trying this. The first time I tried was in February. I have since gotten ample evidence that you all have been reading my blog. But I still have not managed to open up a private eChannel of Communication with you.

What I am seeking is this. That there be an email account that is individual to Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, and I get to talk back and forth with Dr. Bhattarai over email. The goal is to ultimately post the entire dialogue at my blog, but I would not do so immediately. I would do so after some ground has been covered.

My blog has been widely read among all three political camps. The Monarchists have been reading it, I have been told it has been a "big hit" in Delhi among the democrats there, and you all have been reading it. My blog is not journalism, it is political work. My goal is peace and progress. My goal is a democratic, progressive peace.

I might even get involved closely with a campaign outlined here: http://demrepubnepal.blogspot.com/2005/03/edemocracy-4s-campaign-247-vigil-for.html in the post-monsoon phase. I might do some major fund-raising in New York in the private, progressive sector. And coordinate the campaign from this end, fund it and all.

Shall we talk? What do you think? You are not going to get UN mediation. But you could get an alliance with the democrats, and I might be the only person in some position to forge that. Frankly, I don't see you taking over the country militarily any more than I see the Monarchists crushing you militarily. So you could take up on my offer now, or you could waste time and take up on it six months or a year from now.

I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Regards,
Paramendra.

http://www.paramendra.com

In the spirit of transparent democracy, I make it public. My politics is not my private life, it is my public life. I am still working on opening a private channel with Dr. Bhattarai, just so you know!

In The News

• Koirala asks Nepal leaders to work for democracy:- Webindia123, India .....met political leaders of his country camping here ..... also called on Nepalese political groups to engage with the Maoists in the peace talks that could lead to the formation of a constituent assembly...... also meeting members of the Nepalese community who have formed an umbrella group called Jan Sampark Samiti ..... "India will try to tell Koirala to persuade other political parties to open a dialogue with the Maoists so that a lasting solution to the present crisis is found," an official source said.
• MIDDLE: India indulges despots Times of India, India To the north there is Nepal, where a reactionary monarchy battles a protracted Maoist insurgency and freedom is the loser. To the east there is Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, where an entrenched military junta refuses to yield to elected democratic forces and, according to human rights organisations, harshly suppresses ethnic minorities...... India, which now accounts for more than a quarter of all Myanmar's exports, is one of the few major free markets that does not impose trade sanctions on the country....... Gyanendra recently sacked the government and imposed martial law....... China, which has no agenda for political change in Myanmar and is helping to build naval bases on the Andaman sea coast facing India. Beijing is also actively courting Nepal....... after Suu Kyi's latest detention, in mid-2003, Tokyo froze all financial aid to Myanmar........ rather than ASEAN it is China and India, Myanmar's two biggest neighbours and trading partners, that could bring the most effective influence to bear.......
  
• Karat did meet Nepal Maoists, admits party Hindustan Times, India Karat told the Maoists to give up violence and join the political mainstream ..... The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) confirmed to the Hindustan Times that a high-level delegation, including Baburam Bhattarai and Krishna Bahadur Mahara went to meet Indian political leaders......In an e-mail message, CPN (Maoist) chairman Prachand said the objective of the meetings was to gauge India’s stand if the CPN(Maoist) were to accept a multi-party system as a political solution to the ongoing civil war in Nepal, and agreed to work with other political parties in a constituent assembly....... "Taking constituent assembly as the means of minimum political solution, the party is maintaining relations with different political parties and forces not only within the country but of the world including India, Europe and US."
• Maoist Leaders In Delhi: An Inside Story NepalNews.com Dr. Bhattarai’s team also had the under-cover presence of another politburo member who was none other than Kishan Pyakurel, the pseudonym of Top Bahadur Raymajhi who leads the Maoist organization in India....... Mahara is considered a Prachanda supporter while Rayamajhi favours Bhattarai....... the team led by Dr. Bhattarai’s team primarily held talks with three sorts of people. Firstly, various political leaders in India. Secondly, high level Indian government officials. And, thirdly, the Delhi-based representatives of the Nepalese political parties........ Prakash Karat .. A.B. Bardhan.. George Fernandez.. their relationship dates back to the 70’s when both of them were studying at the Delhi-based Jawaharalal Nehru University......after Bhattarai’s latest Delhi tour, the Maoists have received political recognition from the Indian government, in an undeclared fashion ...... Bhattarai is giving more emphasis on trying his luck through the Indian leftists who are in the government..... The principal accomplishment that the Maoists have harvested in Delhi is nothing but the coalition with the agitating political parties in Nepal. The news source claims, based on the discussions held between the Maoist representatives and the Nepalese political parties, a possibility of working together for a ‘democratic republic’ has emerged. The visit of Nepali Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala this week is being seen in a similar perspective........ Krishna Prasad Sitaula and Dr. Shekhar Koirala of Nepali Congress, Pradip Giri of Nepali Congress (Democratic), Rajan Bhattarai of CPN (UML), Hridayesh Tripathi and Rajendra Mahato of Sadbhawana Party and Chandradev Joshi of United Left Front ....... ‘The discussions with the Maoists have been very positive. Though there have not been any immediate formal agreement, some common agenda might be reached to fight for a democratic republic.’ If it is so then (elections to) the constituent assembly could be a point of departure for them, and for this the seven parties have already opened the ways....... the Royal Nepalese Army tried to sabotage Dr. Bhattarai’s Delhi visit ...... India had been in touch with the Maoists; that India was taking Baburam’s side and that India was desirous of talking directly to Prachanda ..... hinting the party establishment, he slammed a serious charge that the ones who name him pro-Indian are the ones who are pro-palace....... The Nepali politicians are actively working through the ‘Nepal Democracy and Human Rights Advocacy Center’, which has its office at Yusuf Saraya of New Delhi.
• Mahara Baburam Nepali Times NEPALGANJ—Maoist leader Krishna Bahadur Mahara has been appointed the head of the United Revolutionary People’s Council in place of Baburam Bhattarai who held that position. Spokesman of the party, Mahara had been working as the joint-coordinator of the council. The Western Central Command’s Organisation Mobilisation Committee in-charge Purna Subedi confirmed this saying Bhattarai had not been reinstated in the politburo. “But he is working with the party headquarters,” she said, adding that the central leadership dispute just when the party had gained momentum in its struggle had frustrated party ranks. “There are attempts to create confusion by highlighting the intra-party struggle but nobody has seen the action taken against Bhattarai as a wise move.”