Baburam Bhattarai Press Statement

Dr. Bhattarai has been in the news lately. And he fired a rebuttal of his own. I always look forward to reading his statements. They are tightly written. And they offer a rare glimpse into the inner workings of the Maoist organization.

• Baburam Bhattarai Press Statement INSN

Some observations I make:

1. He misreads the "movement" as the one for a democratic republic. The parties are agitating only for democracy. He and his party are two months behind schedule. But they continue to have the option to campaign for a democratic republic within the framework of a constituent assembly.
   
2. He has written to the Maoist central committee asking for an investigation into the Prachanda "voice" in audio tape format that basically calls Baburam an "Indian agent." Prachanda has not denied his words but he has said new developments have made him look at his comrade differently. But that "flash" is revealing. Looks to me like Prachanda has something in common with the Monarchists after all. The India bhoot is the favorite weapon of the false nationalists in Nepal. My personal concern is the same weapon is also used to incite ethnic hatred against the Madhesis. Maybe Prachanda is just another Bahun after all.
   
3. He also takes a swipe at Prachanda's past attacks on his "intellect." I am not about to argue on that point with a man who has a Ph.D. I don't myself.
   
4. He says he is "hurt" Prachanda questioned his nationalism.
   
5. Differences in opinion and political differences should be talked out politically and within the basic rules of decorum, Baburam insists. Instead Prachanda chose to hit beneath the belt. He resorted to administrative measures.
   
6. Prachada, meaning "The Fierce One," perhaps thinks of Stalin, "Man Of Steel," as his role model. Baburam quotes Lenin often and perhaps thinks of him as his role model. Like Trotsky said of Stalin, "He is just a bureaucrat." Lenin spent much of his adult life in libraries. If he had socialized more, perhaps his autocratic instincts could have been blunted.
   
7. When Baburam says Democratic Republic, he really means it. Like in India. India is a Democratic Republic. His line is that that is what the Maoists should gun for for now. It is unreal to think in terms of a communist republic given Nepal's current socio-economic conditions. That is Baburam's line. He claims that is also the party's line.
   
8. He comes hard on Prachanda for transforming "healthy debates and discussions" into issues of personal enmity. Looks like the two have found some new common ground. They are comrades again. But Baburam is not about to compromise on his basic premise of democracy and freedom of expression within the Maoist central committee.
   
9. I personally do not want to see the Maoists formally splitting. Prachanda on his own might become less manageable. Baburam is the best watchdog one can ask for to keep Prachanda's dictatorial instincts in check.
   
10. And Prachanda himself is an unknown quantity. I don't want to paint him one way or the other. The fact that he too is for a constituent assembly is important, and shows he is capable of reason.
    
11. Baburam sees the common minimum program as (1) democratic republic, and (2) constituent assembly.
    
12. He says it is true he has been working to reach out to national forces and forces beyond based on that CMP.
    
13. That is good news. That provides some common ground between the seven parties and the Maoists. The seven parties are also for a constituent assembly now.
    
14. He is critical of Prachanda's use of administrative measures and an outright use of force.
15. I don't think he wants to get even with Prachanda, as in also try and send him into "protective custody," but he is uncompromising on the issue of democracy and freedom of expression within the Maoist central committee.
    
16. That is good news for the democrats. The democrats can hope to do business with Baburam.
    
17. I don't mean to make light of the loss of the Nepali Congress that has lost 1,000 of its workers to the insurgency. But peace making requires painful compromises. It is that or it is losing more workers to the insurgency.
    

In The News

• Delhi Bombshell, Baburam In Delhi Kantipur
• Most Political Detainees To Be Released Tomorrow Alliance For Peace ..... all remaining political detainees across the country to be released tomorrow, with the exception of Janamorcha party members.
• Nepal Becoming No-Go Zone Embassy .....100,000 people have been displaced since the rebellion...... So far, aid workers in Nepal aren’t being driven out of the country by attacks, like their peers in other conflict zones such as Iraq and Afghanistan
• Tightened Screw On Press Freedom Reporters Without Borders ..... a new edict adopted by the council of ministers on 18 May ..... a licensing clause banning cross media ownership so that a private company can no longer own a TV station, radio and a newspaper ..... edict now awaits ratification from King Gyanendra
• Karat denies meeting Nepal Maoists Financial Express, India
  
• India and Nepal Maoists deny mutual ties Islamic Republic News Agency Bhattarai earlier had been accused by the Maoist hardliners as being soft on New Delhi after he insisted on fighting the king first before taking on India in the wake of February 1 palace coup..... Bhattarai added, "To call someone a foreign agent immediately after differences over ideological matters is the height of political bankruptcy."
• India wakes up: we condemn Maoist violence, they have to lay down ... Indian Express
  
• Nepal Frees 20 Political Detainees ABC News Thursday's prisoner releases followed an emergency security meeting
• Nepal police detain 50 protesters Reuters AlertNet, UK .... authorities have freed 700 people so far.
• Nepal: Time for India to Undo Wrongs Navhind Times It is difficult to understand why India has welcomed the lifting of the emergency as a “first step” towards democracy when people are still being arrested, press censorship is in place and the executive powers of the King remain undiluted..... Has New Delhi forgotten that the entire autocratic panchayat system of Gyanendra’s father, King Mahendra, with its arbitrary arrests and disappearances, functioned without the declaration of any emergency? ..... Monarchists in Nepal have time and again equated Nepali nationalism with anti-Indianism. It was this class which let loose urban terror in Kathmandu reacting to the infamous Hrithik Roshan episode. A patently false rumour was given currency to target Indian establishments and whip up anti-India hysteria. Although instability in Nepal has always been blamed on political parties and external forces (read India), history shows that monarchy and its institutions have been at the centre of all political controversies and upheavals...... While the double U-turn of the Indian foreign policy establishment on arms supply was bad enough, now there is loose talk from the Indian Army about a ‘brother army’ needing ammunition. ...... October 4, 2002, when he dissolved the Parliament. That decision was fundamentally flawed ..... the King’s agenda has to be understood first. His top priority is to delegitimise the political parties ..... help the political parties understand that unless they offer a political and economic solution to the Maoists, the restoration of democracy will fail..... India already has channels of communication open with the political parties. It must also start talking to the Maoists......
  
• Senior diplomats bound for Nepal BBC News, UK ..... Indian foreign ministry official Ranjit Rae and Zhou Gang, a senior official of the Chinese foreign ministry, are both arriving in Kathmandu simultaneously.
• Indian, Chinese diplomats to hold talks with Nepal authorities:- Webindia123, India
  
• Nepal tightens media curbsmjournalism.co.za, South Africa ..... prohibiting any news item that causes "hatred or disrespect" against King Gyanendra and his family members ..... provisions to fine up to Rs 1,00,000 and sentence jail term of up to one year ...... government's intention to "totally control free press and to convert it into government's propaganda machinery."
  

The Lake Freezes At 32 Degrees Fahrenheit Like Magic

Mausi Bhi Taiyar, Basanti Bhi Taiyar

Looks to me like both the king and the Maoists might be coming around to the agenda of the seven political parties: (1) revive parliament, (2) all-party government, (3) unconditional peace talks with the Maoists, and (4) constituent assembly.

Gaon walon, mausi bhi taiyar hai, Basanti bhi taiyar hai, marna cancel!

For the first time since 2/1 I see peace on the horizon.

Homework time. The parties need to talk to the king. The king should not wait for the street protests to gather momentum. These seven parties are over 95% of the weight of the to-be revived parliament. That is people power. People already voted. They do not have to come out into the streets.

Message To G2: The Lake Freezes At 32 Degrees Fahrenheit Like Magic

G2: Girija, Gyanendra.

Just when things are looking a little better, one has to stay cautious. The ground situation has not changed all that much. And things can always go downhill.

Others are welcome to make their own intelligent guesses, but if I had to guess, I would say the lake is right now at 36 degrees. If the king comes forth and agrees to reviving the parliament, the temperature goes up to 38. If Girija does not play foul and sticks to the common minimum program, the temperature goes up to 40. If the Maoists play ball and get together for a constituent assembly by totally disarming, and peace returns for good, the lake is at 42 degrees. That is comfy.

But 42 is still a country with abject poverty, where a majority are hungry every single day. The water is still very cold.

On the other hand, if the king frustrates the parties and the street agitators, the temperature goes down to 35. If the king further clamps down, say if there are hints of military rule, the temperature goes down to 34. If the Maoists step up their attacks, the temperature goes down to 33.

The thing about 33 is, for the onlookers, it is like water is still moving, you still see ripples and waves. The yes men around the king will keep insisting they still see ripples and waves. And so many end up thinking the temperature is further away from 32 than it actually is. Batista did not see it coming in Cuba.

I have been following the RNA military moves since 2/1. They are fundamentally deficient. They misunderstand the very nature of the war, even the military aspect of it. Most of the army top brass are physically unfit. These are not people who rose up from the ranks. The inherent nepotism that has kept the Shahas, Ranas and Thapas at the helm has not allowed for a whole lot of meritocracy. The universal human desire for money and power coupled with the monopoly the top generals sought and got has led to a whole lot of groupthink.

It would be erroneous to compare RNA's 100,000 men to the Maoists' 12,000 or however many there are. If the RNA were to engage in a traditional war with the Maoists for a little over a month, they end up an army with guns but no bullets. And the Maoists do not have to butcher 100,000 men to capture Singha Durbar. They are not fighting a traditional war.

If the temperature were to get down to 33, they might engineer a few "events." Bin Laden calls them "spectacular," Prachanda calls them "catastrophe." The impact is primarily psychological.

At 32, the lake freezes zipzap. At that point, if Nepal is lucky, Prachanda is more like Fidel Castro. If Nepal is unlucky, the guy is the Nepali Pol Pot.

Look at how Castro marched into Havana. There was not much bloodshed at all.

That is what we are looking at.

Congressia Madhesias

The Nepali Congress has got to be my least favorite political party in all of Nepal. They messed up the 1990s. They let down the high hopes generated by the 1990 movement. They became the new status quo. They thwarted genuine aspirations of the Madhesis and the Janajatis. They turned democracy into a circus. They institutionalized corruption. They hounded smaller parties.

Their track record leaves much to be asked for.

On the other hand, if the Madhesis inside the Congress were to get more assertive, that could herald a fundamental social transformation of the party.

Look at someone like Ram Baran Yadav. He is a medical doctor. That does not necessarily make him the smartest kid on the block. But that does mean he has read a few books. He is a Yadav. That works for great electoral arithmetic in the Terai. Someone like him should be aspiring for the leadership position within the party.

Bimalendra Nidhi might have taken the jump. He has not played second fiddle within the Nepali Congress (D).

Raju Ban Gaya Gentleman

When an all-party government is formed, I see Rajendra Mahto as one of the ministers. Tripathy and Mahto from the Sadbhavana.

Ever since 2/1 Mahto has been generous to me with his time over the phone. I have interviewed him. I have asked him for phone numbers of other leaders I needed to talk to. I have sought his opinions. I have sought clarifications from him on statements made by the parties. But that is not the reason.

Mahto is a major emerging political talent on the national scene. His district Sarlahi is one of the Sadbhavana bastions on par with Nawalparasi and Morang. He is very easy to talk to, as in "sweet," as one of his constituents once described him to me a long time ago. But he is also resolute, and capable of taking firm stands when need be.

He has been a boon to the democratic movement.