Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

That is a direct quote from Lenin. Basically he is saying once in a while you have to take a regressive step, as in two progressive steps, followed by one regressive step is still one progressive step ahead. As a matter of strategy, it is okay once in a while to make unholy alliances.

I think the Bahuns are determined to take one step back for now. The highly imaginative idea of reviving the parliament is a step to sideline the king. Once the parliament is in, they will amend the constitution to take the army away from the king. And they will then want to use the army against the Maoists. Which will put us back at square one. The same army will not put a better fight with Girija or MaKuNe as Commander-In-Chief.

But that is if the parliament is revived. I don't know if I should feel good about the idea that finally the parties are trying to hit back at the two extreme forces, the M&M coalition, or I should be critical that the parties are not trying to instead steal their political thunder first.

BP Koirala was right about Girija: he is a great organization man. But he does not come across as a great strategic thinker. And he gets one new idea every three years or so.

Basically it is Gyanendra, Prachanda, Girija.

During the 1990s, Girija was the center of gravity of Nepali politics, even when he was not Prime Minister. Ever since Deuba got sacked the first time around, that center of gravity has shifted to King G. And since 2/1 Prachanda has loomed larger than ever.

Reviving parliament is like killing several birds with one stone for Girija:

1. The center of gravity shifts back to him.
   
2. He gets to squeeze Deuba.
   
3. He gets to squeeze King G.
   
4. He will try to sqeeze the Maoists.

But those are big ifs. The biggest is at the beginning. Can the parliament be revived? Will it be revived? If it is revived, will the Congress play foul, and no longer feel the need for an all-party government, since in a revived parliament, a simple majority will be enough? Will it seek peace with the Maoists or instead try to avenge the death of the 1000 Congress workers at the hand of the Maoists? There is a school of thought within the Congress that wants the army under the parliament, but then that army still has to go and fight the Maoists. They are not exactly envisioning peace talks.

Prachanda's conditional support for the parties has to be seen with suspicion.

All three forces are constantly trying to use one against the other.

Peace is nowhere in sight. Confusion remains. There is much posturing and hardening of stances.

May 19

• UN concerns about situation in Nepal ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland
• Comprehensive monitoring of human rights in Nepal ReliefWeb (press release) the Nepalese courts are unable to exercise any authority even in response to habeas corpus writs issued for persons believed to be in police or army custody...... The bane of many an operation has been the amateur officials from abroad, obtained through the deeply flawed U.N. internal recruitment system. Most of these persons tend to think of themselves as authorities simply because they are wearing a U.N. hat. If such persons get control of the mission in Nepal it will mean that the Nepalese, who are very well aware of their problems and stand ready to contribute, will withdraw from genuine participation. The operation will then be deprived of its only useful source of information and knowledge.
  
• Updates from Nepal to the World United We Blog, Nepal Maoist insurgents have stepped up attacks across Nepal..... Security Forces are losing ground to the well armed, well disciplined Maoists...... With unavoidable parallels to Vietnam before the fall of Saigon , King Gyanendra’s iron grip appears to be slipping...... Democratic Parties have .. begun internal re-examination of party platforms and tactics, with many of the leaders for the first time publicly accepting past mistakes........ The public, weary of war, the endless strikes, demonstrations, party rows, and abuse by the King’s Security Forces, has greeted the statement by Maoist leader Prachanda giving conditional support for the 7-Party movement suspiciously......... King Gyanendra faced with international condemnation, both a Maoist and a Democratic revolution, and a Security Force with dwindling military supplies must soon understand that continuing to rule by bullying, will result in the damaging consequences to the Nepalese Monarchy.
• Nepal Politics: Common Man is willing to give a change to parties United We Blog, Nepal The virtues of Democracy have been too long overshadowed by the vices of the politicians.......The King so far has done little to reach out to people, hence many don’t trust him.
• Parties should go to the people of Nepal United We Blog a matter of pride for freedom and peace loving Nepalis to see seven constitutional and pro-democratic political parties agreeing for a common cause..... Now peace is not that far, democracy is in the horizon.....No bombs or guns can defeat people power..... Maoists have extended their support to the agenda of seven party alliance United Front. And parties have rightly rejected the phony offer.
  
• For Nepal, this is the last chance to move forward United We Blog
• Nepal Maoists blast transmission tower Monsters and Critics.com, UK
• Nepal govt frees 15 political prisoners Gulf Times, Qatar "The king's defeat is now certain," Bam Dev Gautam, a senior communist leader, told reporters following his release....... "I don't recognise the unconstitutionally formed commission," Deuba told reporters inside the commission headquarters.
• US to push for full return of democracy in Nepal Hindustan Times, India

May 18

• 50 Maoists killed in Nepal clashes Daily Times, Pakistan
• Nepal frees politicians, interrogates journalist Reuters AlertNet
• Prod to Nepal Calcutta Telegraph, India

May 17

• VHP extends support to Nepal King Financial Express, India
• Nepal hears graft charges against former PM Deuba Reuters AlertNet, UK
• Prosecutors in Nepal seek 10-year term for Deuba in graft case Zee News
• Maoists kill 9 Nepali soldiers and police in clash Reuters AlertNet
• India for dialogue between parties and monarchy in Nepal Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran
• For Nepal, this is the last chance to move forward United We Blog, Nepal ....statement by Prachanda to support seven party’s movement as much as possible is clear indication that Maoist’s willingness to have negotiated settlement with parties, a sign of positive overture...... Girija Prasad Koirala has opened an avenue by publicly accepting that he had made mistakes in understanding King on dissolving House of Representatives in 1994 and subsequent political failures ...... road map, that King has publicly pledged, would be to allow the parties to function...... opening of political space by King, understanding between King and parties to temporarily reinstall parliament and form a national government, bring Maoists in for negotiated settlement, and conduct election of constituent assembly.
• Human Rights In Nepal: The Views Of Dinesh Prasain
• Thapa as Nepal PM wont be restoration of democracy For the last four days, rumors have been spreading like wildfire in Kathmandu about Thapa’s return to the top post for the record sixth time..... He predicted some kind of significant change to solve the current crisis of the country. ...... Democracy in Nepal does not mean king fire the VCs, create a post of Prime Minister and nominate Surya Bahadur Thapa in that post....... Surya Bahadur Thapa is not just a man. He is a CARD. Card of the Kings. All three kings Mahendra, Birendra and Gyanendra, have used this CARD
• Democracy, And Then? by Sarahana Shrestha, Samudaya ..... we have to reject tyranny from the beginning—from now—because the will to accept tryanny has been injected into our blood from the times of our grandfathers, grandmothers, teachers, parents, and so on..... You say you will criticize the king when he does wrong: what is stopping you now? ...... An approach where a citizen is encouraged to put his and her bright mind to dull things such as pop music buzzing endlessly on the FM
• Purge In The Ranks Of Nepal Maoists IRNA ...... noted Nepalese dissenter and opinion maker Yubaraj Ghimire said, the rift in the Maoist ranks is flowing from the rivalry between two topmost leaders in the rebel organization, Baburam Bhattarai and Prachanda...... Bhattarai is the ideological father of the movement....... Prachanda sacked Bhattarai recently from the party's politburo and removed his wife Hishila Yami and Dinanath Sharma from the central committee....... The three members were divested of all official roles and downgraded to the status of ordinary members...... Bhattarai had been protesting for some time against the over-centralization of power in the hands of Prachanda....... He was also against the increasing corruption and increasing instances of extortion and lack of transparency in accounts and the party's policy of executing rival forces..... Bhattarai had also accused Prachanda of possessing a feudal mindset.
• 100 Days Of Solitude by CK Lal .... The Maoists contributed to the 100-day celebrations by self-inflicting spectacular defeats in suicidal attacks on Monday night at some of the best-guarded army bases along the East-West Highway....... From the Shah to Marcos to Musharraf, the Americans don’t really care as long as strongmen are friendly...... Outside the bubble of Kathmandu Valley, violence is intensifying...... It’s a tragedy of our times that statues of past rulers are guarded day and night by armed soldiers in the capital while unprotected citizens across the country are left to fend for themselves..... The process of state building begun after 1990 stands derailed....... the direct rule of the palace since 4 October 2002 has uprooted the shoots of democracy.
• “How dare we let it happen” Former Speaker Daman Nath Dhungana in Deshantar, 8 May ...... Why is the country once again under the direct rule of the king? The constitution of 1991 had ended any provision for the king’s direct rule...... A state of emergency can’t be imposed without the ratification of the parliament and in absence of the recommendation of democratic forces. There is no way the king can be chairman of the ministers’ council. ..... I agree with Sher Bahadur Deuba on one thing—wherever we go, we need to understand that the constitution of 1991 should be the basis to march forward. .... the king must explain which constitution he is following.
• Ian Martin Interview Nepali Times ..... Monitoring human rights and humanitarian law in a conflict situation is inherently very difficult. ..... We will be assisting the National Human Rights Commission and of course, civil society organisations. ..... we also have a mandate to do independent monitoring of the human rights situation and have very strong commitments in the agreement to having complete freedom of movement and access to places of detention, high-level channels of communication with the authorities including the army. That puts us in a position where we ought to be able to be effective...... In an armed conflict and highly politicised environment, it is not easy to ensure that we approach things with the standards of testing the credibility of information that the UN must apply...... People have to understand that it takes time. ..... my mandate is confined to that one of human rights monitoring and assistance but I certainly believe that if we can contribute to improvement in the human rights situation, it can be a positive factor in the overall path to peace. That’s been the experience in other countries. So it’s not my mandate to explore possibilities of negotiations...... The agreement is initially for a period of two years but it is renewable
• The Delhi Durbar Nepali Times India may have overestimated its own leverage. “We expected that a strong reaction would make the king back off, the other assumption was that political parties would emerge as a strong alternative” ..... There is consensus here that a sustainable solution would have to be found within Nepal, and that will depend on the knack of Nepal’s political class to work together.

Scapegoating Deuba Shows King's Desperation

First it was terrorism versus peace, but noone bought it, especially the foreign powers that were the primary target of the propaganda. So now the Monarchists are turning inwards. Look how corrupt Deuba was. We had to take steps if only to curb him. They feel as long as they can keep the domestic audience happy, they can keep on keeping on.

The RCCC is a fundamentally flawed outfit that makes blatant mockery of due process. Because it was installed by a king who is technically above the law, the outfit is supposed to be above the law. This step, instead of taking the RCCC above the law, could instead end up bringing the monarch beneath it. It could fuel the republican sentiment.

I have been critical of the seven political parties, but that is not a criticism of democracy or the democratic movement. That is a criticism within the democratic camp. When democrats criticize each other's policy positions, they are doing a legitimate, democratic thing.

I still think the protest program is not imaginative enough. But it is a common minimum program. And as long as people come out in the streets, and fundamental rights get restored, political prisoners released, that opens up space for further democratic gains. So broadly I support the program, my criticism is with the specifics. The best part about the protest program is that finally the parties are doing something. Long overdue.

What I see happening is the seven parties create sufficient pressure to get the king to agree to an interim government. I don't see the parliament revived, but I do see an interim government in the works.

If the king were to end up jailing Deuba, he might see a hostility comparable to the one he saw right after 2/1. He is misreading the seven party demand of restoring the parliament as a denunciation of Deuba. That it is not.

I mean, what exactly are the king's options? He does not have the option to go for Panchayat II. If he takes steps in that direction, the monarchy will be doomed beyond repair. He better not be chalking out his own little constitution. And he does not have the three years he asked for. I guess he will bow once sufficient internal pressure is created. Near total external isolation, hostile Maoists, and huge internal pressure: that is the scenario he is looking at. So he could give in to the democrats now, or he could look like bowing to pressure a month from now.

What amazes me about the three camps is none of them want to talk to the other. They fear, if there are talks, they might have to reexamine their respective positions.

As a matter of principle, the democrats are right, of course. But as a matter of tactics, there is not sufficient attempt to (1) guarantee the continuation of the monarchy so as to respect public sentiment and to not push the king into the irrational territory, (2) design a constitutional monarchy that is totally devoid of political power and that ends up not costing the state any money, and (3) steal the political and social thunder of the Maoists.

On the king's part, if he waits for street protests to force his hands, he will lose in terms of popularity. But if he makes creative compromises now, he stands to gain popularity.

As for Maoists, they still seem to daydream they might be able to "use" the democrats. Not about to happen. They are not taking any steps towards their ideological transformation. Big mistake.

I guess I wish maximal strength to the democrats and wisdom to M&M/Eminem, the Monarchists and the Maoists.

In The News

• Delhi backs Nepal parties’ agenda Indian Express, India India today said it would fully back the common programme drawn up by political parties..... Together, the seven political parties represent about 95 pc of the erstwhile Pratinidhi Sabha of Nepal
• India for dialogue between parties and monarchy in Nepal Outlook (subscription)
  
• Senior Nepal political leaders charged with fraud Sify, India
• Panel files 2nd corruption case against Deuba Times of India Royal Commission for Corruption Control (RCCC) charged Deuba and five others including a former Cabinet minister, Prakash Man Singh, of embezzling US$53.3 million in connection with a road construction project. Deuba will attend a hearing on Tuesday and could be sentenced the same day
  
• 52 killed in fresh Nepal violence Hindustan Times, India nearly four-hour gun battle ..... Jaraytar in Sindhuli .... The clash erupted when security forces pursued a group of Maoist rebels, said to be fleeing from an eastern district where they had fought the army last week and suffered casualties..... 700 guerrillas..... reports have been pouring in about increased Maoist activities.....five days after the outlaws attacked four security posts overnight..... a spate of abductions of around 1,000 students by rebels....
  
• China, Australia to invest in Nepal's biggest hydro-electric ... Xinhua, China West Seti Hydropower ..... 750 mega watt...... 1.2 billion US dollars...... government had granted approval to the Snowy Mountain Engineering Corporation (SMEC) of Australia to develop the project in 1994, which has been working for that project for the past one decade..... project is supposed to be completed within five and half years..... entire power generated will be sold to India at 4.95 US cents per unit
• Nepalese soldiers continue hunt for children abducted by communist ... Winnipeg Sun In the past, the rebels have whisked students away for a few days to try to indoctrinate them with revolutionary ideology, and the children are usually returned safely.
  
• ‘Disseminate true information about Nepal’ Gorkhapatra
• Delhi nudge for Nepal monarch The Statesman, India India is not too happy with the pace of re-democratisation of the Nepali government
• Review decision to resume arms supplies to Nepal: CPM to govt Zee News
• Drug smuggling along India-Nepal border unearthed:- Webindia123, India "There are well organised criminal gangs on both sides of the border. Because of better intelligence, we have had some major seizures but we have no evidence to show it is funding the guerillas".....most of the drugs were grown in the Nepal hinterland, controlled by organised gangs....."difficult to monitor the many permeable routes".
• Party Leaders Meet Their Indian Counterparts To Protest Resumed Indian Aid INSN
• Washington DC Rally INSN An estimated 700 Nepalese and many American friends of Nepal rallied in Washington, D.C. on Sunday, May 15 to call for the restoration of democracy, civil liberties, and human rights. It was the largest rally of Nepalese in US history.....“Tyranny is No Answer to Terror” ..... “No Absolute Monarchy, No Obsolete Maoism.”..... Pramod Aryal of Georgia drove for 12 hours to reach the rally...... We fought for democracy, we won democracy, and now here we are again today..... Things are really bad outside of Kathmandu...... “100 Days Gone: King Lied to Us.”..... “Boston Nepalis Against Dictatorship” ..... a sign in Nepali comparing King Gyanendra to Saddam Hussein..... Rumors had spread in the immigrant community that US police would check the protesters for identification and would arrest anyone who was illegal, and some charged pro-royalists with spreading the fear....... Several U.S. soldiers who stopped to talk with protesters expressed support for the group’s pro-democracy aims...... Letters of support were sent to the rally by U.S. Senators Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Congressmen John Mica (R-FL) and James Walsh (R-NY).....
• UML Democracy Bulletion 9
• A Letter To Gyane Samudaya
• DC Rally Pictures Samudaya
• Prosecutors in Nepal seek 10-year term for former prime minister International Herald Tribune
• The harakiri decision Afternoon Dispatch & Courier