Saturday, May 14, 2005

Comrade Gonzalo Of Peru: A Profile


There are "realists" who claim Nepali Maoists have to be seen for who they are, and one has to simply look at their Cambodian and Peruvian counterparts to understand where they are coming from and where they are headed. After the Maoists take over, they will be even more immune to international pressure than the Monarchists have been. The only option will be foreign military intervention. The Maoists will butcher 5 million Nepalis - "class enemies" - or more. Compare 12,ooo lives to 5,000,000 lives. Does not even compare.

I call this the cliff theory. As in, you have to stay away from the cliff, because, once you fall, you can not pull back half way down. The Maoists taking over is the country falling over a cliff.

The Americans lead this "realism" camp. And I am glad for it. The Americans will do anything, even resume arms supplies regardless of the king's autocratic moves, to make sure the Maoists do not take over. So the realists are like an umbrealla, a safety valve. And thank you. But because that umbrella does exist, that gives the rest of us more room to seek political solutions to the civil war. We can be confident the Maoists are not in any position to "use" the democrats to further their nefarious ends.

I am against a military takeover of the country by any group, Maoist or Monarchist.

But the question I ask is why did the political parties and the king not go for the UN-mediation, Constituent Assembly option a few years back? That is the question the Monarchists and the democrats have been evading. Even now the democrats are not speaking with one voice on the Constituent Assembly question.

True, the Maoists have to be seen for who they are. Since 2/1, the hardliners seem to have gained the upper hand. When you humiliate the moderates during the "peace process," you end up dealing with the hardliners.

But then also the Monarchists have to be seen for who they are. Does this king want peace? Will he face the reality that there really is no military solution? Prachanda might get captured, and the insurgency will still go on. A few Maoist strongholds might get dismantled, and the insurgency will still go on. The king gives no evidence he is trying to cure the insurgency. Ever since he ascended the throne, he has exhibited a singular determination to expand his personal power base.

But I have seriously revised my thoughts on the king after he lifted the emergency. At least he is not trying to reenact the Panchayat. He is stretching the 1990 constitution but he is at least pretending to stay within it.

It is in the nature of the leaders of dictatorial outfits like that of the Maoists and the Monarchists that their leaders exhibit little flexibility. Saddam never changed his mind. He could have compromised and saved his regime. But he never changed his mind. He went down rather.

Peruvian Maoists have talked of those among them who went for the Constituent Assembly option as traitors. But the Nepali Maoists have consistently sought the Constituent Assembly option. That is an important distinction. And it has to be noted. And both Prachanda and Baburam have been for it.

If we are to fear a Maoist dictatorship, we already have a Monarchist dictatorship. If we are to fear a Maoist military takeover, we already have a Monarchist military takeover.

I looked around for information on Gonzalo of Peru. I have been particularly interested in the circumstances of his capture.

Chances are Prachanda is hiding in a forest somewhere, but more likely he is in a comfortable setting in India. But he maintains communication. So he must have access to facilities. But I don't get the impression the Monarchists are even trying to capture the Maoist leaders. I guess they do not want to get targeted themselves.

Some of the things I learned from the Gonzalo experience from my online research:
  1. You are not fighting a traditional war with the Maoists. I have seen pictures of RNA folks combing through Rolpa and Rukum, rank and file, marching. That strategy might not be the best one.
  2. For a dictatorial outfit like the Maoists are, Prachanda is everything. Prachanda's capture could be the only way to cause a serious setback to them.
  3. This is an intelligence war. Can you find out where he is? It can be found out. But the thing is no major attempts have been made.
But then, even if you capture Prachanda, a big if, you will still need a political solution to the insurgency. But if you go straight for the political solution, things stay less complicated.
In The News
  • The Daring of Revolution, The Shoots of the Future by Li Onesto Revolution #1, May 1, 2005 ..... For the first time women had the right to own land and get a divorce, land was being redistributed, and peasants mercilessly cheated by usurers had torn up debt papers.... April 2005. A friend sends me a video, not yet available in the U.S., “Eight Glorious Years of People’s War”—hours of amazing footage from the liberated base areas, shot and edited by the Central Cultural De- partment of the CPN (Maoist)...... a massive rally where the Magar people, an oppressed nationality, are celebrating the declaration of the new Magrat Autonomous Government..... a binocular-like survey of a human procession that snakes across the steep mountainside for miles..... Nepotism and injustice are eliminated in villages ..... Caste and untouchability are eradicated ..... how women in Nepal are suffocated by feudal tradition. Not allowed to go to school, subjected to arranged marriages and polygamy, lives crushed by the thriving sex traffic..... This old state is tiring..... Let’s seize the central power.....
  • 100 Days of Fascism in Nepal D. Michael Van De Veer — Pokhara, Nepal www.scoop.co.nz, May 11, 2005 .....
  • Nepal: One Hundred Days After Royal Takeover and Human Rights Crisis Deepens, February 1 - May 11, 200
  • To Aid A Rogue Regime Manjushree Thapa, published in Asian Age, May 9, 2005 ....the king had deployed half the Royal Nepal Army to arrest, detain and intimidate left/liberal political activists, journalists, and human rights workers ..... even as the state of emergency was lifted, the Kathmandu District Administration Office outlawed most civil liberties..... the monarchy, a medieval and usurious institution...... He is not, after all, constitutionally legitimate-despite all the articles and clauses that he is fond of quoting, the constitution does not anywhere allow him to do what he has done. He is, additionally, roundly unpopular: long before they (baselessly) maligned him for fratricide, the Nepali people (baselessly) maligned him for drug and idol smuggling. Were it not for the army-or a royalist clique in the army-this king would enjoy no prestige at all....... were it not for this king, the army’s royalist clique would itself enjoy little prestige....... by some accounts, the monarchy is merely a puppet manipulated by a few hawkish generals whose ultimate goal is to establish military rule, Pakistan-style ..... to avoid military rule, one must contain the monarchy...... Forging a three-way settlement now is almost the only option before Nepal-if we are not to keep hemorrhaging pointlessly...... Since February 2005, the Maoists have shown some willingness to negotiate down to a democratic platform, and the centrist political parties have come around to the Maoists’ basic demands. Only the king and his royalist generals remain inflexible.......
  • Slogans for the Pro-Democracy Rally, Washington D.C., 15 May INSN
  • Weed Out The Corrupt Before Launching The Andolan United We Blog “Monarchs relinquish power only under popular pressure”.
  • Jan Andolan From May 26 United We Blog ...... All Party Jana Andolan Central Coordination Committee .... From June 15 (Asar 1), all professional organizations, youths and students wings of all parties will come up with combined programs.
  • Attending A Semi-Underground Press Meet In Nepal United We Blog When Jeetendra, sporting a short hair and clean shaved face .....
  • Madam Rocca Is Bit Happy, Bit So-So United We Blog We continue to urge the government of Nepal to release all political detainees, restore civil liberties, and reach out in a pro-active manner to the political parties...... Their recent announcement of a untied front is an encouraging first step in this process ..... Our total development assistance over the years amounts to 400 million dollars. Our security assistance over the past four years, including a one-time appropriation of 12 million dollars in 2002, amounts to 22 million dollars overall..... The Maoists have made clear their intention to impose a one-party “people’s republic,” collectivize agriculture, “reeducate” so-called class enemies, and export their revolution to neighboring states....... the longstanding political impasse ..... While we welcome the steps taken by His Majesty’s Government to lift the Sate of Emergency and release political leaders, we remain concerned about the reports of continuing repression of civil liberties and additional arrests. We continue to urge the government of Nepal to release all political detainees, restore civil liberties, and reach out in a pro-active manner to the political parties...... We have made it clear to the Government that we expect to see appropriate, timely and transparent investigations of any credible allegations of abuse...... elections at the earliest possible time.
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Friday, May 13, 2005

The Maoists Have Been Reading My Emails, Blog Entries


This article at INSN is the first clear hint I am getting the Maoists have been getting and reading my emails as well as blog entries directed at them.

I also get the impression they are operating out of India. The mention of a "park" shows that. The leaders are not in some jungle somewhere in remote Nepal. They have always had internet access. That could not have been possible in Thawang.

The article explicitly says Mahara met the reporter outside of Nepal. If that be the case, I seriously doubt Mahara crossed the border just for the purpose. It makes safety sense for him to not engage in too many border crossings.

Plus, it is not that hard for a well-funded organization to find safehouses in India.

I can imagine why they might not want to give out phone numbers. They probably think I work for the CIA which will use satellite technology to track them down should they get on the phone with me. I don't blame them. The technology does exist. Everytime I get on my cellphone, my cellphone company knows exactly where I am at. This is used for emergency situations. If I were in an emergency, all I would have to do is call 911, and not even know where I am at, and they will know my exact location.

I am not really trying to get the Maoist leaders physically assaulted. My communication is at the level of ideology. I do not have any affiliation with any element of the US government. I am only participating as a concerned Nepali who just so happens to be based out of the US.

Mahara could actually be in Delhi. My guess. Because Delhi has many parks. Small Indian towns don't have parks. And it might also be easier to stay anonymous in a big city.

.... - first a multiparty democratic republic..... then we would work for the peaceful transformation of the state......

...... We want a 21st-century democracy in which the people supervise the state so that people with money cannot control the elections. We want transparency and equal opportunities for all parties......

The King and Mao

By Isabel Hilton, May 13, 2005
Financial Times

The man came walking along the path. He was slightly chubby, unassuming. He wore a short- sleeved shirt, Chinos and sunglasses, and carried a small black briefcase. He seemed relaxed as he approached, as though simply out for a stroll in the park. He could have passed for an insurance clerk - or the teacher he used to be before he dropped out of normal life and went underground.

There was nothing to suggest that this was one of South Asia’s most wanted men: Comrade Krishna Bahadur Mahara, as his colleagues in the movement know him, who ranks number two in the politburo of the Maoist Communist Party of Nepal, second only to “Prachanda”, the party’s founder and the most elusive of the Maoist leaders.

My meeting with Mahara took place outside the state of Nepal; I had to promise not to disclose exactly where. We sat on the grass in a large park, a space open enough that anyone who tried to sit too close would be conspicuous.

Comrade Mahara was keen to discuss the way forward for Nepal’s Maoists in the wake of the coup; exactly what it would mean for Nepal if the Maoists were to take power was now an urgent question.

Since the Nepalese constitution prohibits the prosecution of the king, Nepal now has a head of government who is above the law. “Suddenly,” one human rights monitor remarked, “we are in the 14th century.”

Seated cross-legged on the grass, Mahara laid out the Maoist analysis in the wake of the king’s coup. What had been a triangular struggle for power between the constitutional politicians, the king and the Maoists had now become a simpler two-way contest....... The coup, Mahara told me, was the product of Maoist success.

(A senior British diplomat had put it in similar terms two weeks earlier. “The king,” he said, “is telling us we must choose between him and the Maoists. He is convinced that faced with that choice we will have to back him. Personally, I’m not so sure.”)

His hope, he said, was that the constitutional politicians would see the wisdom of backing the Maoists’ demand for a new constitution to rid Nepal of its monarchy and the entrenched ruling class. The constitution they envisaged, Mahara insisted, would set up a republic with a multiparty democracy.

It did not sound like a revolutionary platform. Mao himself, in the early days of the People’s Republic of China, had offered a tactical alliance with other political parties but his alliances were short-lived. For non-Maoist politicians and the anxious bystanders, the unanswerable question was: would Prachanda’s Maoists keep their promises?

Mahara told me that the Nepalese Maoists had learned the lessons of history - that dogma does not offer a lasting political future. Prachanda recently spoke of a 21st-century democracy in which the new state “will be under the observation, control and hegemony of the general masses”. There would be “free competition among political parties”, he said, as long as they “oppose feudalism and imperialism and work for the service of the masses”.

Mahara’s version of the plan was less jargon-ridden: “If we are to forge an alliance with the other parties,” he said, “we have to be flexible. We envisage a two-step revolution - first a multiparty democratic republic. If it was a genuine democracy, then we would work for the peaceful transformation of the state.” It did not sound like classic Maoism, though it did imply that the Maoists in power might move to ensure they never lost it. Mahara smiled.

“We haven’t given up Marx, Lenin and Mao but we don’t want to take it as dogma. We want a 21st-century democracy in which the people supervise the state so that people with money cannot control the elections. We want transparency and equal opportunities for all parties.”

He spoke with the apparent sincerity of a social democrat arguing the virtues of universal suffrage. ..... Mahara, though, was arguing the necessity for alliances. The most important objective now, he said, was to persuade the other political parties to side with them.

...... the rhetoric of the movement had softened. It was, said Mahara, unrealistic to suppose that a small state such as Nepal could survive if it had too many powerful enemies. For the Maoists, that meant neighbouring India and China, neither of which would be keen to see the triumph of millenarian revolutionary ideology. Perhaps as they draw closer to power, the Maoists have begun to think of strategic survival.

When we met, Mahara had declined to predict how long it might take the Maoists to win power, though he laid out possible ways the Maoists might prevail militarily. The movement had good relations with the junior ranks of the army who had no real stomach for the fight, and he considered a mass defection of junior officers a serious possibility. Blockades of the cities and military campaigns, he said, were preparation for a final offensive. The Maoists believe the end game has begun.

As he spoke, Mahara’s manner became watchful and the tone of his conversation changed. A group of young men had chosen to sit quite close by. I could see Mahara grow tense and alert. He rose to his feet, shook hands and walked away - briskly but without obvious haste. At the edge of the park he paused, then disappeared, apparently unremarked, into the crowd in the street.
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