Thursday, May 12, 2005

Baburam: Prachanda's Best Bet, Litmust Test, And Only Option


Prachanda's recent mistreatment of Baburam shows the Maoist party is a dictatorial organization that allows no dissent in opinion. Worse, it shows the Maoists are not capable of a transformation that will allow them a soft landing so they could become one of the largest parties within a democratic, progressive multi-party framework.

My beeline to the Maoists has always been based on the past positions of the Maoists themselves. In recent memory it is the Maoists who have brought forth the idea of a Constituent Assembly. Noone else was talking about it. Even now most others are not. So when I talk Constituent Assembly, I am borrowing a Maoist line.

Let's assume the Maoists mean it when they say Constituent Assembly, that it is not a tactical move to their ultimate goal of a communist dictatorship. The thing is, they are not in any position to make any such tactical move. They are not going to be able to fool anyone even if they tried.

So the Maoists better mean it when they say Constituent Assembly. The last, recent, nationwide, scientific polls (What The People Feel by Krishna Hachhethu) conducted show the majority of Nepalis want to retain a Constitutional Monarchy. So if you are for a Constituent Assembly, you pretty much are going to agree to the verdict of this poll. Which means, the Maoists are going to have to come around to the idea of a Constitutional Monarcy. Now. The polls also show overwhelming support for a multi-party democracy. There is minuscule support for an absolute monarchy, and even less for a communist dictatorship.

So if you are for a Constituent Assembly, Prachanda, you are basically saying you are for (1) Constitutional Monarchy, and (2) Multi-Party Democracy. That is not me putting words in your mouth. That is me hearing you right. That is if you are being honest when you say you are for a Constituent Assembly.

And if you are for a multi-party democracy, you basically are agreeing to move away from the central organizing principle of your organization, that power flows through the barrel of a gun. You and your team are going to have to revise your ideology, and come up with something new: Power flows through the ballot box.

That ideological shift will have to be made. And the person among your ranks best able to do it will be Dr. Baburam Bhattarai. So you need to release Baburam from "protective custody" and discontinue the "purification" operation you are subjecting him to, and stop blaming him for your recent military defeats. He is not the reason for the tough times you are going through.

That will be your litmus test. If you can not treat Baburam right, forget teaming up with the democrats. Not going to happen.

But then Constitutional Monarchy can mean many different things. If you allow a progressive transformation of your organization, you will become a major force that makes sure the Constitutional Monarchy gets devoid of all political power.

I have been circulating this proposed constitution, and I hope to get back on my phone marathons soon, faxing people around, emailing. This document is a broad framework. All political players on stage, including you, are being encouraged to give your feedback and criticism. What do you like? What do you not like? This is already the most progressive of any constitution I know on the face of the planet. It can be made more so, with your participation and help.

But first, release Baburam. And both of you get down to work.

Or you could continue down the track you are on. That path leads to the Gonzalo fate for you. The noose has been tightening around you. It might actually end up being worse for you. Because if the progressive transformation is achieved without your participation, your political and social thunder will already have been stolen, and the democrats, all of whom are mighty angry at you in the first place, will not feel any need to collaborate with you. Basically what I am saying is you are under tremendous time pressure.

Option 1 leads to you possibly becoming a Deputy Prime Minister in an interim government. If you can fundamentally transform all your cadres for work for peaceful organization and party building, heck, you could even become Prime Minister on your own after elections.

Option 2 leads to oblivion and worse. Even with a military takeover of the country - totally impossible - you will not be able to offer the Nepali people anything better or more than this progressive constitution will be able to. So why not skip a few steps, and make sure you are still politically relevant in 2015!

I guess the choice for you is between history and hell. Get Baburam out and get him working and get into the history books. That is what I suggest.

This is what I see happening:
  1. You ideologically transform yourself to the point the central dictum of your organization is Power Flows Through The Ballot Box within a framework of this progressive constitution. Then nothing prevents a partnership between your organization and the democrats. But the transformation comes first.
  2. Both you and Baburam get berths in an interim government.
  3. You disarm all your cadres, and retrain them to become the best organizers of any party in the country to see if you can become the largest party. I think it possible.
  4. No, they are not going into the army, instead the army itself is to be downsized so there is more money for education and health. Instead of getting salaries from the army, your workers should seek to get their salaries as elected officials.
  5. Funny. If you become Prime Minister, you find yourself Commander-In-Chief!
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Madhesi Rights: Abhi Nahin To Kabhi Nahin


I feel the Sadbhavana has been making two mistakes.

One is the party's continued split. The personality clash between Tripathy and Mandal continues unabated. Mandal is Tripathy's Deuba. It must be said that it is harder for members of powerless groups to exhibit unity. The tendency is towards disintegration, to falling easy prey to the power structure, to getting used by the adversaries. This non-communication might be a microcosm of the larger reality in the country. The Maoists are not talking with the other camps either.

The second is the Sadbhavana going along with the big dogs like the Congress and the UML without bargaining for a new political set-up. The 1990 constitution has to go. The Sadbhavana has to realize that. After all, it is the party that burnt the document some time in the 1990s. Now the precondition for peace in the country is something the party has wanted all along but curiously has put on the backburner when it needs to put forward the most.

Too many Bahuns in the big parties want somehow to go back to the old order. The sooner they realize that is not possible, the sooner the country will see peace. Parties like the Sadbhavana help the cause of peace by getting assertive with their social agenda.

The crisis in the country is also impacting the social dynamic between the component social groups all the way to the diaspora. That rethink is a good thing. Old social thought patterns need to be dissolved to make way for new ones.

I was delighted to hear yesterday of the formation of the ANTA, a kind of a social outfit for the Madhesis in the US. This is a sign of much-needed assertiveness. The echo has to be heard back in Nepal.

I expect to work closely through my personal contacts in the Sadbhavana to reach the rest of the parties with my proposed constitution. I don't know of any other blueprint in circulation that seeks common ground between all three parties to the conflict.

Sending A Message From Washington To Kathmandu, The Washington Post
By Nora Boustany
Wednesday, May 11, 2005; Page A14

Nepalese from across the United States will gather at LaFayette Square at noon Sunday to protest their monarch's revocation of democracy, press freedom and human rights. The gathering comes as many foreign governments are losing patience with King Gyanendra and his harsh tactics against a Maoist insurgency in the Himalayan nation.

Gyanendra suspended most democratic institutions in 2002 and declared absolute rule Feb. 1. Human rights activists, student leaders and politicians have been disappearing by the thousands as the military suppresses dissent and criticism of the palace, while pursuing the Maoists in the mountainous countryside with increasingly brutal force.



Sujata Koirala , a member of the Nepali Congress party and daughter of former prime minister G.P. Koirala , will be joining the protesters Sunday. She has direct experience with the violence in her country -- she was almost killed this winter when a bomb exploded at her house in Nepal. She blames the attack on the army.

Nepal's former ambassador to the United Nations, Murari Raj Sharma , will address the crowd. "People look over their shoulders before opening their mouths" in Nepal, he said in a statement. "They are frightened."

On Monday, Gareth Evans , president of the advocacy organization International Crisis Group, sent a letter to British Prime Minister Tony Blair , Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan , urging concerted action to restrict military aid to Nepal until democracy is restored.

After Gyanendra declared absolute rule, India and Britain suspended military assistance to the country of 25 million and broke off diplomatic relations. But the United States did not cut off its $22 million military aid package, which is used to purchase M-16 rifles and finance military intelligence training, among other things.

The letter from the International Crisis Group said conflict in Nepal has intensified since Feb. 1, with at least 655 people killed. State security forces "were responsible for at least 530 of those deaths, many apparently innocent civilians, and the Maoists have killed 125 people, many of these also civilians," the letter said.

"King Gyanendra's self-imposed 100-day deadline to restore order and lay out a road map for democracy and peace in Nepal will pass on 11 May, with only limited progress towards these aims," the letter said. The king officially ended absolute rule last week, but human rights groups say that arrests and killings continue.

Christina Rocca , U.S. assistant secretary of state for South Asia, arrived in Nepal Monday and is scheduled to meet Gyanendra to press for a return to democracy.

An advocacy director at Amnesty International, T. Kumar , urged Rocca "not to miss the opportunity to send a strong message to the king that the United States will not sit silently and provide any military assistance until restoration of human rights and democracy in Nepal."

Yesterday, after Rocca publicly called for the restoration of democratic liberties in Nepal, the government freed four detained opposition politicians and India said it would partially resume the military aid it had suspended, according to the Associated Press.

The insurgency dates to 1996, when Maoists bent on abolishing the established order, beginning with the monarchy, began a campaign in the countryside. They capitalized on disgruntlement with a system that had concentrated money, land and power in the hands of high-caste Hindus and a few tribal chiefs loyal to the monarch.

The rebels have extended their power by raiding police stations, seizing guns and extorting money from business owners. In the meantime, the king has struggled to respond. He dissolved parliament in 2002 and has fired three prime ministers, moves that are not sanctioned by the Nepalese constitution.

Today, Nepalese villagers are often trapped between the gun muzzles of insurgents who demand food and lodging, and soldiers who come looking for the rebels. Before the soldiers leave, they often line up farmers and execute them for suspected complicity, according to Dinesh Prasain , a human rights activist from Nepal.



"The army justifies its human rights violations by saying, 'Look how brutal the Maoists are,' and they are," Prasain said. "But since 1996, 12,000 people have died. The state security forces have killed close to 7,800 Nepalese while the Maoist rebels have killed about 4,200, a ratio of two to one." The figures have been documented by Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the United Nations and other organizations.

"We understand the role of the army is to fight the insurgency, but it also has to be accountable to the people of Nepal and respect human rights and international humanitarian terms and conditions," said Prasain, a sociologist.

Two million people have moved to neighboring countries as refugees, Prasain said. In February, he joined that list, fleeing to India with four members of his Collective Campaign for Peace, a coalition of 40 organizations. By his account, hundreds of activists continue to report on human rights violations through an underground network.

It remains risky work. Last Thursday, Gagan Thapa , a student leader, was snatched by police as soon he was released by court order. "They have this revolving-door system," said Prasain.

Now Prasain is in the United States, brought here by Nepalese Americans in an effort to raise awareness of the crisis in his country.

"I really would like to go back," he said, "but what good would I do in jail?"

May 12
May 11
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