Thursday, March 17, 2005

Indo-US-EU Alliance Needs To Do A US-In-Haiti In Nepal


A forging of a Indo-US-EU alliance for democracy might be a "gift" of Nepal's 2/1. Let's face it, ultimately the alliance will have to face China itself. I don't know if it will be 10 or 20 years from now, but that time will come. It will not be more than a generation. And Nepal is no Taiwan. China will not go to war with the Indo-US-EU alliance just because the alliance might end up opting for miltary action. The best thing about publicly putting the military option on the table might be that force might not have to be used. The threat will be enough.

China, Pakistan, Russia, Cuba. When they say 2/1 is Nepal's internal matter, they are not saying they support it. They are definitely not saying they will fight for the junta should the need arise.

Unilateral disarmament is ineffective politics. When the junta keeps its "emergency" in place with threat of force, and you demand that it restore all fundamental rights, but you do not back that demand with possible use of force, then you are disarming unilterally. It will not work.

A junta that has taken away the fundamental rights of the Nepali people is not the representative of the sovereignty of the country.

Step 1: Cut military aid.
Step 2: Cut all aid.
Step 3: Economic sanctions and blockade.
Step 4: Seize all property held by the junta outside the country.
Step 5: Threaten to come in.

Of course, the better option would be for the three powers to fund the Nepali democrats in India and elsewhere to organize in a massive way while also keeping steps 1-5 on the table. How about the three powers pumping in $1 million each to start with? I call this the Ukraine option.

The Ukraine option is my preferred one.
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution .....a series of protests and political events that took place throughout the country ..... the capital city of Ukraine and center of the revolution where a large 24-hour tent city was set up ..... series of nationwide protests, sit-ins, and planned general strikes .....the Orange Revolution reached its successful and peaceful conclusion ..... massive protests began in cities across Ukraine: the major one in Kiev's Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) attracted an estimated 500,000 participants ..... The demonstrations in Kiev were of an unheard-of scale. By many estimates, on some days they drew over 1 million people to the streets, in freezing weather...... though apparently spontaneous, was the result of extensive grassroots campaigning and coalition building among the opposition ...... extensive work by student activists ......
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Sharp .... Sharp's key insight is that power is not monolithic. According to Sharp, as a dictator continues to discredit himself or herself, more and more police officers and soldiers will do things other than follow the dictator's orders, and once a critical mass is reached, will openly disobey. The activists need to have a positive program, he argues.
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonviolent_resistance Gene Sharp has identified 198 methods of nonviolent action which may be used to defend countries from invasion, undermine dictatorships, block coups d'etat or challenge unjust social systems. They include:
  • symbolic protests
  • hunger strike
  • paralysis of transportation
  • social boycotts
  • specific and general strikes
  • civil disobedience
  • economic shutdowns
  • political noncooperation
  • "disappearance" under false identity
  • economic boycotts
  • public demonstrations
  • slow-downs
  • publication of banned newspapers
  • deliberate inefficiencies
  • assistance to persecuted people
  • broadcasts about resistance on radio and television
  • judicial resistance
  • defiance by the government
  • denial of legitimacy to the usurpers
  • non-cooperation of civil servants
  • legislative procrastination and delays
  • declaration of defiance
  • persistent continuation of old policies and laws
  • student defiance
  • children's demonstrations
  • individual and mass resignations
  • refusal of collaboration
  • maintenance of autonomy of independent organizations and institutions
  • subversion of the usurpers' troops, and incitement to them to mutiny
In The News
  • STARK WARNING ON NEPAL Special Broadcasting Service, Australia
  • UN and donors say Nepal is close to humanitarian crisis Channel News Asia .... The joint statement was issued by 11 foreign missions and donor agencies including the Canadian International Development Agency, Danish International Development Agency, Britain's Department for International Development, the UN in Nepal, German Technical Cooperation, USAID/Nepal and the Finnish and Norwegian embassies.
  • Nepal 'near humanitarian abyss' BBC News ....Children are among the worst affected, it says, with many suffering from a lack of vitamins and essential dugs...... Credible reports have emerged in recent weeks that some women died in childbirth because they were unable to reach medical help, the statement adds...... There is also concern for the fate of 100,000 Bhutanese refugees in eastern Nepal, who are dependent on relief but find the flow of aid regularly blocked.
  • Students protest for democracy in Nepal Seattle Post Intelligencer .....detained dozens of students protesting ..... Hundreds of police dragged demonstrators from the main market in Katmandu. .... The protests were organized by 10 different student groups linked to the main political parties. They are urging colleagues to join banned street protests ..... "Our only goal is restoration of full democracy and we will battle to the end. This is the beginning of our decisive battle against the autocratic regime," student leader Gagan Thapa said in a telephone interview..... Police have been hunting down student activists, jailing them and harassing their families .... the government has strictly censored the media and sought to justify strict crackdowns on rallies by citing intelligence that they were being infiltrated by communist rebels ....
  • Protests erupt in Nepal NEWS.com.au "I was told the news report in my paper which said around 750 protesters across the country had been nabbed for holding anti-king protests on Monday, had gone against the spirit and norms of the royal proclamation of February 1," Wagle told reporters.
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Are The Democracies All Talk And No Action?


This king has been challenging every person and power that has advised him to restore the fundamental rights of the Nepali people. You have Tulsi Giri badmouthing Manmohan Singh. You have King G himself challenging Condi Rice. You have a regime that has actively tried to play the so-called Pakistan and China cards. The basic thinking is that because the junta has physical force at its disposal, it does not need to listen to democratic powers like India, US and the EU, because all they do is issue statements. As the king said, "They have to say what they have to say. We have to do what we have to do."

It is time the democracies stepped up and responded in kind.

The only force the regime has used has been against the common people. The foot soldiers of the Nepali army are demoralised. These are people who went into the army for the monthly paycheck, not to get killed. And they are showing it.

After the democrats take over the reigns in Nepal, I believe the Dalai Lama should be invited to set up a winter home in Lumbini, and should be encouraged to set up a second Dharmashala in the vicinity, funded by international donors. I am sure someone like Richard Gere could lead the fund-raising efforts.

China needs to be responded to for its current support to the junta in Kathmandu.

It is a global struggle between the democrats and the autocrats in Nepal now. It is for the democrats to show they mean more than press statements.

This is one Active Monarch. He is not only out to get the political parties. He has also shown the major powers fall in the same category. He is all tit-for-tat.
  • Nepal king's deputy rules out talks with Maoists: New Kerala, India .... Tulsi Giri .. said he did not favour holding talks ..... was recalled from his political exile in Bangalore in India ...... "Call them what you will," Giri told the media, "People's War, Maoist Communist Centre, Maoists or even the Al Qaeda - terrorism is terrorism whatever names you give it."....... the chief minister of West Bengal was critical of peace talks between the government of Andhra Pradesh and Maoist rebels there....... "The leftist government of West Bengal was in no mood to hold unconditional talks with the Naxalites (an ultra left group that staged an armed uprising in the 1970s). The terrorists hide in jungles from where they attack people and grab headlines. That is not the way to resolve problems." ...... army was "fully equipped" to deal with the Communist guerrillas - who have rejected the king's offer of amnesty. ...... The defence forces were demoralised by the previous governments ....... "Now they are ready to sanitise areas infected by these people smelling of dirty things and eradicate them. If they don't respond to words, they will be made to respond to kicks." ...... the media raised a "hue and cry" when the army killed people but made tame noises when the Maoists violated human rights....... Accusing the multiparty governments of Nepal of abetting the insurgents, the minister said "Girija (Prasad Koirala, Nepalese opposition leader) and Madhav Kumar Nepal (leader of the biggest Communist party) will get the first bullet from their terrorist friends." ...... They have been issuing statements from India and Bangkok ....... "The Indian dailies have been writing about Maoists receiving medical treatment in Uttar Pradesh and Patna (in Bihar) ...... "The prime minister refuses to go to Dhaka saying he does not want to shake dirty hands (after the royal coup in Nepal) whereas the greatest democratic king in Asia, the king of Bhutan, is invited as a guest of honour during India's Republic Day and shakes hands with the Indian leadership." ....... Nepal's bitterness stems from over 100,000 Bhutanese making Nepal their home for over a decade after fleeing ethnic cleansing in their country. While Nepal wants the Bhutanese refugees to return to Bhutan, the Druk kingdom has been dragging its feet on their repatriation. ........ He said the present emergency may be withdrawn before three months or extended after the period, depending on the security situation........ According to Nepal's constitution, it can be imposed for three months. To be extended, the government needs parliament's approval.
  • Climate of fear exists in Nepal, say jurists Sify A team from the conglomerate of judges and lawyers visited Nepal from March 13-16 ...... presenting a report entitled "Nepal: Rule of Law Abandoned." ..... the suspension of fundamental rights "is not lawful under Nepali and international law and will not help to win the war against the Maoists."
  • No talks, rebels must be wiped out: Nepal govt Indian Express, India .....future saying the rebels needed to be ‘‘wiped out’’ even as it asked political parties to come forward for a dialogue, offering them berths in the cabinet if they cooperate with it in certain areas....... The rebels ‘‘need to be wiped out and the areas under their control will be sedimented,’’ he said, adding the government ‘‘is fully equipped to crush’’ the Maoists.
  • Royal coup emboldening Maoists in Nepal, says international ... New Kerala The International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) has slammed the claims saying its own findings reveal otherwise and that the crackdown is disproportionate to the demands of the situation. ...... it has emboldened the Maoists politically, it has not given a military advantage to the Royal Nepalese Army ..... very selective arrests, selective surveillance, selective late night calls, selective warnings that the King's proclamation should be read carefully, through selective restrictions banning criticism of the royal proclamation or the actions of the Royal Nepalese Army ...... more than a 1,000 people have disappeared in the last few months as the state tries to "break the backbone" of the revolt. ........ The rebels on the contrary have stepped up action against those who are pro-monarchy. ...... so far Nepalis seem resigned to their fate.
  • Chinese FM will visit Nepal Daily Times, Pakistan Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing is to visit Nepal at the end of March during which the possible sale of arms to the Himalayan country by Beijing will be discussed ...... A Nepalese foreign ministry source confirmed other sources of supply were being investigated....... Li’s visit would also pave the way for a visit by the king to China to participate in the Boao regional economic forum on Hainan island between April 22 and 24 ..... Kathmandu on Wednesday coming out in support of a law passed by Beijing which allows it to attack Taiwan
  • Nepal: Students activists demand restoration of democracy Jerusalem Post
  • Rescue Nepal from human rights crisis: jurists' body: New Kerala, India The commission, founded in Berlin in 1952, comprises 60 eminent jurists who are representatives of the different legal systems of the world...... "There is no neutral space for civilians; they are trapped between brutal Maoist tactics and an unaccountable army that since Feb 1 is under increasing pressure to show successes"
  • Jurist fears Geneva trip may cost Nepalese dear: New Kerala
  • Gyanendra counters Rice visit with China card: New Kerala ..... Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Sun Heping met King Gyanendra's deputy, vice-chairman Kirti Nidhi Bista ...... Gyanendra's nailing his colours to the Chinese mast indicates Nepal is no longer depending on Indian or American support at the ongoing session of the UN Human Rights Commission in Geneva ...... the US has been asking the European Union to continue its 15-year-old arms embargo against China on the ground that weapons from Europe might be used against US forces if a war ensues over Taiwan
  • Kathmandu scratches China’s back over Taiwan Statesman
  • Nepal's king uses media to seek edge over rebels International Herald Tribune, France Maoist rebels and the army have issued separate statements almost daily, claiming victories on the battle front
  • Nepal claims rift in Maoist top rung Times of India
  • Nepal army reports rift in rebels BBC News ..... there have been frequent newspaper reports alleging a rift between him and rebel leader Prachanda - apparently over Mr Bhattarai's wish to resume peace talks
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