Sunday, May 29, 2005

Common Minimum Program: Constituent Assembly


The king disappointed in his speech a few days back. This is a rhinoceros, not about to change course, and headed into a ditch. Leaders of dictatorial outfits tend not to change their minds, they instead go down in defeat. Look at Saddam. He never compromised, and instead ended up in a hole, unshaved, a tiny pistol in his hand. Dictators are not capable of flexibility and creative political solutions. That is the alley of democrats.

Used to be the Monarchists, the Maoists, and the democrats were going their own separate ways. But now there is an informal understanding between the Maoists and the democrats. There is an emerging common minimum program. It is called Constituent Assembly. This shows the Monarchists are on their way out, and in a major way.

The Maoists are advised to follow the recent communique of Dr. Baburam Bhattarai. He has sought a CMP of a Democratic Republic and a Constituent Assembly. The political parties are already behind the idea of a Constituent Assembly. This is the first time such a common ground has emerged between the Maoists and the political parties.

The longer it takes to get there, the more the country is going to tilt towards the idea of a Democratic Republic. Already the cadres in all parties are for it. The leaders so far have not had the guts to come out for it. But they will not be able to stand in the way of the tide. Once the momentum builds, they either come along with the idea, or they stand getting sidelined.

This is not a constitutional monarch, this is a feudal monarch, going by his public actions.

The country is going republic.

The people do not need his consent to declare a republic. He stands to get thrown out. The movement is gelling. As it gathers momentum, it will likely turn into a revolution.

At this point the worst thing the Maoists could do is engage the RNA militarily. It would be unrealistic to ask them to disarm unilaterally. And also unrealistic to ask them to declare a ceasefire. But they should refrain from picking fights. Just stay back. If they attack, and pick fights, and if the RNA stocks go down, the foreign powers will be forced to replenish the RNA stocks, and that the Monarchists will paint as political victory. If the Maoists have some sense, they should not allow such a development as a resumption of foreign military aid.

So, yes, do not necessarily declare a ceasefire, but act like there is one in place. Instead let the peaceful democratic movement gell. Let it gather momentum. Don't give the Monarchists an opportunity to quash it claiming there has been armed Maoist infiltration.

It was foolish of Prachanda to have put Baburam under arrest two months back. It would be foolish of him to not get back behind the Democratic Republic and Constituent Assembly CMP in the most effective way possible. And the most effective way right now is not military. The military way plays into the hands of the Monarchists and strengthens them politically.

Now it is for the democrats to work on the movement in the most effective way possible. It is an organizational challenge.

May 29
  • Journalists protest closure of Nepal radio centre Peninsula On-line, Qatar The Ministry of Information and Communications on Friday ordered the centre, which provides programming to 14 of the 50 private FM radio stations across the country, to shut down...... Guragain, who insisted Saturday he would defy the closure order....... several newspapers had been shut down by the authorities or had closed due to financial problems....... more than 1,500 supporters of seven student unions demonstrated in Kathmandu demanding reinstatement of multi-psssarty democracy...... more than 40 refugees driven from the countryside by Maoist violence were arrested yesterday for demonstrating for food and shelter
  • Nepal's Maoist rebels kill policewoman, child Reuters AlertNet, UK Maoist rebels sprayed the house of a policewoman with bullets killing her and her four-year-old son
  • Nepal opposition defies king near Deuba's trial venue:- Webindia123, India Nearly 5,000 people braved the scorching mid-day heat and a possible police crackdown to take part in the first mass meet called in the capital Friday by a coalition of seven major opposition parties.... security personnel, who watched over the two-hour meeting, made no attempts to prevent the proceedings...... if the king continued to rule with absolute power, there could be a mass uprising ......
  • Save my husband, pleads detained Nepalese leader's wife:- Webindia123 Lila Mani Pokhrel ..... has stones in his kidney, paralysis symptoms and diabetes. Pokhrel also has symptoms of hernia and needs immediate surgery ...... Pokhrel is deprived of "basic human rights", like not being allowed books, newspapers or even writing material ...... He is also not allowed to meet anyone except family members......
  • India steps up patrolling on Nepal border to curb Maoists:- Webindia123
  • Nepal king says aims to hold polls in stages Reuters AlertNet, UK said he planned to hold polls in phases to all elected bodies in the revolt-torn nation, but set no dates .... "Necessary preparations have already been initiated to hold these (municipal) elections and activate, in stages, all elected bodies" ......
  • Nepal releases 75 political leaders and activists Sify
  • King of Nepal now eager to bring democracy back in Nepal India Daily There is persistent rumor that Maoists are in direct secret talks with Indian Government.
  • Crackdown continues in Nepal Hindu The crackdown on political activists and media appears to continue in Nepal with royal government detaining 20 political activists who were staging protests against King Gyanendra, even as it re-arrested a former minister immediately after his release from prison...... Others who were released on Friday include Nepali Congress spokesman Arjun Narsingh K.C., former Ministers Bimalendra Nidhi, Bhim Kumari Budhamagar, Suresh Malla, Mina Pandey and Dip Kumar Upadhyay as also ex-Parliament members Khem Raj Bhatta Mayalu and Tek Bahadur Chokhyal...... "We will not shut down our operation, we will continue the operation despite the government's instruction and go to the Supreme Court for a stay order when the office opens on Monday," said Suresh Acharya, News Editor of the Communication Corner and former President of the Federation of Nepalese Journalists...... Calling the government directive as the end of the rule of law in the country, Acharya said the ministry has alleged us of operating illegally without mentioning any law.
  • UK resumes non-lethal military aid to Nepal Hindustan Times, India Britain has decided to resume non-lethal military assistance to Nepal on humanitarian grounds, following in the footsteps of India....... the meeting in Luxembourg discussed EU-India ties as well as regional and international developments, where Nepal reportedly featured on the agenda ...... the meeting, the resumption of non-lethal military assistance and the parliamentary notice have been kept low-key with even the British media not getting a whiff of it.
May 27
  • Thousands attend Nepal pro-democracy rally Reuters AlertNet, UK .....5,000 supporters of seven mainstream parties, many punching their fists in the air, attended the second biggest rally in a week against the monarch ..... on Friday when a dozen rebels, armed with automatic weapons, fired at a security patrol in the western town of Bhairahawa .....the seven parties wanted the restoration of the parliament to solve the political crisis and were ready to hold elections to a constituent assembly to end the Maoist revolt ..... The demand for the constituent assembly was the sticking point in talks with Maoists in 2001 and 2003...... the royalist government ordered troops on alert fearing infiltration of Maoist rebels into anti-monarchy rallies
  • Nepal on alert ahead of anti-king rally Reuters AlertNet ..... Witnesses said riot police armed with bamboo sticks and helmets had been posted around the site of the protests
  • Nepal govt frees over 50 political detainees Sify, India .....Narsingh K C and two former ministers Bimalendra Nidhi and Dip Kumar Upadhyay
  • NEPAL: National report fails to stress the impact of conflict on ... Reuters AlertNet, UK .... second periodic report to the United Nations Committee on Rights of the Child (CRC)..... "In many ways, Nepal was not a country fit for children" ..... The Asian Centre for Human Rights (ACHR) was particularly critical of the report, which had omitted the most important adverse effects of the conflict on children ..... Over 300 children are estimated to have been killed from 13 February 1996 to 28 February 2005. Of these, 168 children were reportedly killed at the hands of the state and 138 at the hands of the Maoists ...... The girls have been raped and molested by the security forces ..... Nepal ratified the Convention on the Rights of Children in 1990 ..... Since then, the country has introduced several laws and ratified key international conventions to promote and protect children's rights that were non-existent during the pre-1990s era.
  • Bodies of 25 Maoists recovered in Nepal Hindu ..... Around 15 Maoists torched the ancestral house of Chief Justice Hari Prasad Sharma at Tarigaun village in Dang district on Monday night, an army official said adding the two-storeyed building was completely gutted..... Maoists allegedly raped two women in Singhdevi area of Ramechhap district ...... Eight Maoist rebels surrendered before security forces in Bharatpur Municipality in Chitawan district
  • Progress in Nepal Washington Post, DC ..... 2002 ... All the king did .. was act in accordance with the Nepali constitution and consent to the dissolution of the parliament as recommended by the prime minister...... Since lifting the state of emergency on April 29, the country has begun to restore civil liberties..... Nepal is restoring peace and stability to accelerate the restoration of a fully functional democracy as soon as possible
  • Bhattarai meeting raises questions on Nepal policy Times of India The revelation that Nepal's Maoist leader, Baburam Bhattarai, has been meeting Indian Communist leaders in the capital .... Bhattarai carries an Interpol red corner notice on his head. .... One of the best proposals coming out of the seven-party alliance in Nepal, therefore, was to invite the Maoists. But the Maoists refused...... Bhattarai's hobnobbing with India, sources say, could leave the space open for a king-Maoist understanding, at India's cost.
  • Nepal frees 18 political detenus Hindu, India Former Deputy Prime Minister and Nepali Congress leader Ramchandra Poudyal and hundreds of other political detenus are still languishing in different jails across the country. The Government last month extended their detention order by another three months despite their deteriorating health conditions.
  • Ex-Nepalese PM Koirala to visit India:- Webindia123 will undergo his annual medical check-up at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in New Delhi. He had undergone a check-up at the same institution last year too..... will also be using his stay in New Delhi to meet Indian leaders and authorities to muster support for the anti-monarchy movement...... Koirala's daughter Sujata and nephew Dr. Shekhar Koirala are also currently based in New Delhi...... While Sujata was in the US and Britain to take part in anti-king rallies this week, Dr. Koirala met Indian leader and former foreign minister Yashwant Sinha Wednesday...... with the Nepal government stopping several opposition leaders at the airport to prevent them from leaving the country, it remains to be seen if Koirala will be allowed to proceed to the Indian capital.
  • Nepal opposition seeks Yashwant Sinha's support:- Webindia123 Rajan Bhattarai, member of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist, Krishna Prasad Sitaula, Shekhar Koirala and Mathura Prasad Ghimire of the Nepali Congress, Pradip Giri of ousted Nepalese prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's Nepali Congress (Democratic) party, Hridayesh Tripathi and Rajendra Mahto of Nepal Sadbhavana Party (A) and Chandra Dev Joshi of United Left Front, met BJP leader and ex-minister for external affairs Yashwant Sinha at his residence.
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Friday, May 27, 2005

Rumor Has It The King Is About To Make A Major Move


"Yo hallai halla ko desh ho." Bhupi Sherchan.

Rumor has it the king is about to make a major move on par with 2/1. It can not be in the direction of more autocracy, since he has consistently gone in the direction of democracy since the end of April. So my guess would be it would be good news. But I can't tell exactly what.
He could go ahead and declare the parliament revived and basically agree to the idea that a Constituent Assembly is the only political meeting point for the three political forces in the country.

I still wonder, how exactly will the parliament be revived? Will he use Article 127? And if he will use Article 127, will the parliament stand to be dissolved by him at any moment thereafter? Or what? And if a parliament revived using Article 127 is okay, why is an all-party government formed by the same article not okay?

Could the king go for an interim government like his elder brother did in 1990 in response to the movement then? One can only wonder. I can think of a few options the king has, but there is no telling what exactly he will do. But my guess is whatever it is, it will be a change for the better.

I personally think the political parties should be able to offer an iron clad guarantee for the continuation of the monarchy to get full democracy in return. That could be a meeting point.

Personally I think the proposal I made to the king on May 3 is the best of all options.
It preserves the monarchy, it goes about nine steps ahead of every political party in the country in terms of offering the goods to the people, it totally steals the political and social thunder of the Maoists, something no gun can do, and leaves them the option to become a peaceful party or become irrelevant, just like that, evaporate off, it makes corruption near impossible, it puts Nepal on the political cutting edge. I can totally imagine American progressives pointing their fingers in Nepal's direction, green with envy, and asking out aloud as to why they can not have something as wonderful also in America. I can imagine the CPI and the CPI (M) totally coming around to the concept of total, transparent democracy in India and launching a non-BJP, non-Congress Third Front, immediately. I can imagine the Chinese saying they continue to denouce the western democracies, but that they actually like the Nepali version. The king of Nepal becomes the Samrat of Asia. Alexander and Napoleon used physical force. But conquest today is done with ideas, over the Internet. Plus, we no longer live in an era of emperors conquering physical territory with brute force. We live in an era where the competition is to see as to who can design the best political and social infrastructures so as to best serve the individual. It is about the individual. This is science we are talking about.

This would be a good use of Article 127. The only good use.

Actually I don't think you have to use anything in the 1990 constitution to form an interim government. You just go ahead and form it.

In The News

    • Reconciliation In Coming Weeks Kantipur ..... US Ambassador to Nepal, James F Moriarty ..... "I hope in the coming weeks we will see an attempt [by the king] to reach out to the political parties, and, if there is such an attempt, I hope the parties will respond." ..... "Whatever change comes, it should be something that the palace and the political parties should be comfortable with." ..... "If you are going to have a reconciliation in this country, both the sides - the palace and the parties - will have to be ready for some give and take." ..... "When Cristina Rocca was here she welcomed the fact that the parties were working together, but we need to see both the sides move forward from there and we hope that the parties' common agenda becomes a tool for negotiating with the government." ...... the king has publicly stated that he believed that restoration of the House would be unconstitutional. "So, it might be difficult to negotiate around that issue, but if that is possible, we welcome it." ...... "Last week was horrible - there were police beating up the Maoist victims, people were getting rearrested in the courts and the government took a series of dumb steps." .... there has been some progress, especially in terms of the release of detainees and the restoration of civil rights. "But there has to be a progress in reaching out to the political parties, and that is the key." ...... Feb 1, said Moriarty, was a setback to the international community's perspective on Nepal because many started to think if the main problem in Nepal was the insurgency or the king. ...... "we have been carefully saying that the goal here is to try and get as many Maoists back into the mainstream as soon as possible." ...... First, that there should be unity among the legitimate political forces in the country. Second, the whole international community should tell the Maoists that they are not going to take over power in Nepal and that the former was not going to allow that to happen...... Finally, the Maoists have to be convinced that they are not going to win militarily and that they have to come back and negotiate seriously....... "I believe that if the palace and the parties don't work together there is a good chance of the Maoists ending up taking over power. Whether that is through military means, through negotiations or terrorism I don't know. But frankly, if everybody screws up, the Maoists are going to win." ..... "While there are two issues tied to it: First, domestic political developments…we want to see clearly the civil liberties coming back and an end to arbitrary use of power and we also want to see the reconciliation process." He, however quickly added, "That sounds cut and dried but it's not because of the other consideration, which is the military balance…which makes us nervous." ...... our twin goals (the path back to democracy and ensuring that the Maoist don't takeover) ..... "If we get very nervous about the Maoist progress, then that will be a factor we will consider." ..... "Are we nervous? Yes. But it is hard to say if we are nervous enough." ..... That's a long way from saying that we look at Nepal through Indian eyes. I have a tremendous ego and I wouldn't be here if I thought that was the case and we would close down our embassy...... if he believed in different versions of democracy, he said the ability of people to elect and change their government, free press, and independent judiciary were all pretty standard...... "We are not believers in different sorts of democracy for different sorts of people because that has always been used to disguise paternalism and authoritarianism"

    • Iran And Nepal: Both Need Freedom Of All Kinds United We Blog Iran is a country being ruled by Islamic fundamentalists. Nepal is a country being ruled by royalist fundamentalists....... (Iran has arrested over 20 bloggers over the last year.) Iranian bloggers who have been released have reported being the victims of torture......

    • Republicans Inside The Royal Palace Prateek Pradhan, Kantipur February 1 putsch ..catapulted undeserving people to the helm of power who are now prepared to go to any length to hang on to the power ..... these people are invoking extremist moves to force the parties to join a republican force ...... Tricky Giri, Khelkhud Shah, Chameleon Pandey and the like won't mind no matter how serious the crisis facing the country or the institution of monarchy is ...... The government has become totally dependent on the army now. Such a harmful trend does not only raise the ambition of the armed forces, but it also seriously hampers the effectiveness of the government...... they are working on nepalization of democracy...... they must be aware that any attempt to undermine people's rights to choose the government and rule the country through their representatives would further resent the constitutional forces and the people. And if so, the King will have no option but to rule the country by tightening the iron fists, whence they will be able to further savor the power....... The attempt is to widen the chasm between the pro-constitutional-monarchy political parties and the pro-multiparty-democracy King...... the ball is in the King's court to recognize and get rid of the pro-republic force occupying stronghold inside the Royal Palace.

    • Republicans Inside The Royal Palace United We Blog KGBs of Nepal ...Tricky Giri, Khelkud Shaha, and Chameleon Pandey ..... royalists with slave mindset are inciting the king to take such measures that will not ultimately harm the Nepali monarchy badly but also put it in a grave risk of extinction....... King Gyanendra’s Boys ...... these very KGBs are the ‘republicans’ in the royal palace that are trying to ruin the future of monarchy....... it is yet to be proven whether their moves are intentional or inadvertent, it is clear that they are helping the pro-republican force ...... It’s not new in Nepal for people to be more royalists than the king himself. The coterie of ultra royalists is trying to keep king in confusion and rule on their own in the name of king........ a “bunker regime" ...... KGBs or parasites or freeloaders ....... “they know that, once they are out of power, they will have to run away from the country. And some of them have already done so in the past.” ...... “Their aspirations will be fulfilled only if they continue to remain in power even in a fluid situation,” Pradhan says, “It simply does not cross their mind that the fluidity will eventually hit hard the longevity of the institution of monarchy.” ........ These parasites “won’t mind no matter how serious the crisis facing the country or the institution of monarchy is. The only intention of these leaders is to hang on to the power by hook or crook.” And they have proved this argument of Pradhan by doing all nonsense things over the last four months. “In a bid to strangle whatever remaining confidence the King and the political parties have in each other,” Pradhan writes, “these people are invoking extremist moves to force the parties to join a republican force rather than reconcile on constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy.” ..........the people inside the Royal Palace are doing their best to weaken the ideology supporting pro-constitutional monarchy within the political parties ......... The longer they keep Narahari Acharya, Lila Mani Pokharel and the like in detention, the stronger the republican voice will grow. The more they play cat-and-mouse game with the student leaders such as Gagan Thapa and Rajendra Rai, the louder their voice will be heard within and outside the political party. The harsher they become with human rights activists such as Krishna Pahadi, the greater will be the local and global influence. They know that unless they do not send the security forces inside the court to manhandle lawyers and journalists, most of these people would not think of the republic set up. ........... the involvement of army in the everyday chores of the country is like turning a tiger into a man-eater by letting them to taste human blood. ......... The choices are simple: safe future for monarchy by being constitutional or the republic system in Nepal. As Pradhan says, the ball is in the king’s court.

    • Visiting A Detention Center In Nepal United We Blog Bode, Bhaktapur ..... I was actually reluctantly accompanying my reporter friend and co-blogger Saroj to meet his detained brother Sudeep Sharma.The Agriculture Development Bank’s training center was transformed into an autocratic hell, thanks to Feb 1 Move...... Visibly sick and jaded Urmila told that she will be taken to Bir Hospital for medical check up tomorrow. Bal Krishna, in haste, dropped the Fanta bottle brought for her sister..... Rajendra Pande was a bit furious with the authority. He retorted: “Can’t a politician meet his relatives? Is it his crime to have such relatives?” He said he was there to visit his grandson Sudeep Silwal. An apologetic Assistant Sub Inspector sent for his grandson...... As the political crowd left the venue, a police grilled me asking why I was there.

    • Gagan Thapa Release, What About Others? United We Blog Gagan Thapa (waiving hand) vowed to fight for democracy and constituent assembly..... Yesterday, Supreme Court issued an order that said: “In fact, detainee Gagan Thapa hasn’t been released from the illegal detention as per the court order. That is against the fundamental objective of the constitution and the laws of the country.” ..... home minister Dan Bahadur Shai commented: “The court order didn’t specifically barred police from re-arresting Thapa. So police did no wrong re-arresting him.” ..... A free Gagan Thapa vowed to continue fighting for democracy in Nepal. “Now, our target is constituent assembly,” he said. “The movement should go ahead for that goal. We should do no compromise with the king. We should not listen to his sweet and phony talks about peace and democracy.” ...... arresting pro-democracy political activists will only weaken the regime.

    • Samrat Of Everybody's Heart United We Blog So, I also decided to visit the place to juxtapose the Samrat of my imagination with the Samrat of flesh and blood..... I at last saw Samrat of my heart ..... His characters are so life-like and speak the language of common people of Kathmandu...... Samrat got a Whiting Award in 2001 for his debut book Arresting God In Kathmandu, and his second book Guru of Love was an enormous success. His fans are curiously waiting for his third book that is getting published in a few months.
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Thursday, May 26, 2005

Baburam Bhattarai Press Statement


Dr. Bhattarai has been in the news lately. And he fired a rebuttal of his own. I always look forward to reading his statements. They are tightly written. And they offer a rare glimpse into the inner workings of the Maoist organization.


Some observations I make:

  1. He misreads the "movement" as the one for a democratic republic. The parties are agitating only for democracy. He and his party are two months behind schedule. But they continue to have the option to campaign for a democratic republic within the framework of a constituent assembly.
  2. He has written to the Maoist central committee asking for an investigation into the Prachanda "voice" in audio tape format that basically calls Baburam an "Indian agent." Prachanda has not denied his words but he has said new developments have made him look at his comrade differently. But that "flash" is revealing. Looks to me like Prachanda has something in common with the Monarchists after all. The India bhoot is the favorite weapon of the false nationalists in Nepal. My personal concern is the same weapon is also used to incite ethnic hatred against the Madhesis. Maybe Prachanda is just another Bahun after all.
  3. He also takes a swipe at Prachanda's past attacks on his "intellect." I am not about to argue on that point with a man who has a Ph.D. I don't myself.
  4. He says he is "hurt" Prachanda questioned his nationalism.
  5. Differences in opinion and political differences should be talked out politically and within the basic rules of decorum, Baburam insists. Instead Prachanda chose to hit beneath the belt. He resorted to administrative measures.
  6. Prachada, meaning "The Fierce One," perhaps thinks of Stalin, "Man Of Steel," as his role model. Baburam quotes Lenin often and perhaps thinks of him as his role model. Like Trotsky said of Stalin, "He is just a bureaucrat." Lenin spent much of his adult life in libraries. If he had socialized more, perhaps his autocratic instincts could have been blunted.
  7. When Baburam says Democratic Republic, he really means it. Like in India. India is a Democratic Republic. His line is that that is what the Maoists should gun for for now. It is unreal to think in terms of a communist republic given Nepal's current socio-economic conditions. That is Baburam's line. He claims that is also the party's line.
  8. He comes hard on Prachanda for transforming "healthy debates and discussions" into issues of personal enmity. Looks like the two have found some new common ground. They are comrades again. But Baburam is not about to compromise on his basic premise of democracy and freedom of expression within the Maoist central committee.
  9. I personally do not want to see the Maoists formally splitting. Prachanda on his own might become less manageable. Baburam is the best watchdog one can ask for to keep Prachanda's dictatorial instincts in check.
  10. And Prachanda himself is an unknown quantity. I don't want to paint him one way or the other. The fact that he too is for a constituent assembly is important, and shows he is capable of reason.
  11. Baburam sees the common minimum program as (1) democratic republic, and (2) constituent assembly.
  12. He says it is true he has been working to reach out to national forces and forces beyond based on that CMP.
  13. That is good news. That provides some common ground between the seven parties and the Maoists. The seven parties are also for a constituent assembly now.
  14. He is critical of Prachanda's use of administrative measures and an outright use of force.
  15. I don't think he wants to get even with Prachanda, as in also try and send him into "protective custody," but he is uncompromising on the issue of democracy and freedom of expression within the Maoist central committee.
  16. That is good news for the democrats. The democrats can hope to do business with Baburam.
  17. I don't mean to make light of the loss of the Nepali Congress that has lost 1,000 of its workers to the insurgency. But peace making requires painful compromises. It is that or it is losing more workers to the insurgency.
In The News
  • Delhi Bombshell, Baburam In Delhi Kantipur
  • Most Political Detainees To Be Released Tomorrow Alliance For Peace ..... all remaining political detainees across the country to be released tomorrow, with the exception of Janamorcha party members.
  • Nepal Becoming No-Go Zone Embassy .....100,000 people have been displaced since the rebellion...... So far, aid workers in Nepal aren’t being driven out of the country by attacks, like their peers in other conflict zones such as Iraq and Afghanistan
  • Tightened Screw On Press Freedom Reporters Without Borders ..... a new edict adopted by the council of ministers on 18 May ..... a licensing clause banning cross media ownership so that a private company can no longer own a TV station, radio and a newspaper ..... edict now awaits ratification from King Gyanendra
  • Karat denies meeting Nepal Maoists Financial Express, India
  • India and Nepal Maoists deny mutual ties Islamic Republic News Agency Bhattarai earlier had been accused by the Maoist hardliners as being soft on New Delhi after he insisted on fighting the king first before taking on India in the wake of February 1 palace coup..... Bhattarai added, "To call someone a foreign agent immediately after differences over ideological matters is the height of political bankruptcy."
  • India wakes up: we condemn Maoist violence, they have to lay down ... Indian Express
  • Nepal Frees 20 Political Detainees ABC News Thursday's prisoner releases followed an emergency security meeting
  • Nepal police detain 50 protesters Reuters AlertNet, UK .... authorities have freed 700 people so far.
  • Nepal: Time for India to Undo Wrongs Navhind Times It is difficult to understand why India has welcomed the lifting of the emergency as a “first step” towards democracy when people are still being arrested, press censorship is in place and the executive powers of the King remain undiluted..... Has New Delhi forgotten that the entire autocratic panchayat system of Gyanendra’s father, King Mahendra, with its arbitrary arrests and disappearances, functioned without the declaration of any emergency? ..... Monarchists in Nepal have time and again equated Nepali nationalism with anti-Indianism. It was this class which let loose urban terror in Kathmandu reacting to the infamous Hrithik Roshan episode. A patently false rumour was given currency to target Indian establishments and whip up anti-India hysteria. Although instability in Nepal has always been blamed on political parties and external forces (read India), history shows that monarchy and its institutions have been at the centre of all political controversies and upheavals...... While the double U-turn of the Indian foreign policy establishment on arms supply was bad enough, now there is loose talk from the Indian Army about a ‘brother army’ needing ammunition. ...... October 4, 2002, when he dissolved the Parliament. That decision was fundamentally flawed ..... the King’s agenda has to be understood first. His top priority is to delegitimise the political parties ..... help the political parties understand that unless they offer a political and economic solution to the Maoists, the restoration of democracy will fail..... India already has channels of communication open with the political parties. It must also start talking to the Maoists......
  • Senior diplomats bound for Nepal BBC News, UK ..... Indian foreign ministry official Ranjit Rae and Zhou Gang, a senior official of the Chinese foreign ministry, are both arriving in Kathmandu simultaneously.
  • Indian, Chinese diplomats to hold talks with Nepal authorities:- Webindia123, India
  • Nepal tightens media curbsmjournalism.co.za, South Africa ..... prohibiting any news item that causes "hatred or disrespect" against King Gyanendra and his family members ..... provisions to fine up to Rs 1,00,000 and sentence jail term of up to one year ...... government's intention to "totally control free press and to convert it into government's propaganda machinery."
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The Lake Freezes At 32 Degrees Fahrenheit Like Magic

Mausi Bhi Taiyar, Basanti Bhi Taiyar

Looks to me like both the king and the Maoists might be coming around to the agenda of the seven political parties: (1) revive parliament, (2) all-party government, (3) unconditional peace talks with the Maoists, and (4) constituent assembly.

Gaon walon, mausi bhi taiyar hai, Basanti bhi taiyar hai, marna cancel!

For the first time since 2/1 I see peace on the horizon.

Homework time. The parties need to talk to the king. The king should not wait for the street protests to gather momentum. These seven parties are over 95% of the weight of the to-be revived parliament. That is people power. People already voted. They do not have to come out into the streets.

Message To G2: The Lake Freezes At 32 Degrees Fahrenheit Like Magic

G2: Girija, Gyanendra.

Just when things are looking a little better, one has to stay cautious. The ground situation has not changed all that much. And things can always go downhill.

Others are welcome to make their own intelligent guesses, but if I had to guess, I would say the lake is right now at 36 degrees. If the king comes forth and agrees to reviving the parliament, the temperature goes up to 38. If Girija does not play foul and sticks to the common minimum program, the temperature goes up to 40. If the Maoists play ball and get together for a constituent assembly by totally disarming, and peace returns for good, the lake is at 42 degrees. That is comfy.

But 42 is still a country with abject poverty, where a majority are hungry every single day. The water is still very cold.

On the other hand, if the king frustrates the parties and the street agitators, the temperature goes down to 35. If the king further clamps down, say if there are hints of military rule, the temperature goes down to 34. If the Maoists step up their attacks, the temperature goes down to 33.

The thing about 33 is, for the onlookers, it is like water is still moving, you still see ripples and waves. The yes men around the king will keep insisting they still see ripples and waves. And so many end up thinking the temperature is further away from 32 than it actually is. Batista did not see it coming in Cuba.

I have been following the RNA military moves since 2/1. They are fundamentally deficient. They misunderstand the very nature of the war, even the military aspect of it. Most of the army top brass are physically unfit. These are not people who rose up from the ranks. The inherent nepotism that has kept the Shahas, Ranas and Thapas at the helm has not allowed for a whole lot of meritocracy. The universal human desire for money and power coupled with the monopoly the top generals sought and got has led to a whole lot of groupthink.

It would be erroneous to compare RNA's 100,000 men to the Maoists' 12,000 or however many there are. If the RNA were to engage in a traditional war with the Maoists for a little over a month, they end up an army with guns but no bullets. And the Maoists do not have to butcher 100,000 men to capture Singha Durbar. They are not fighting a traditional war.

If the temperature were to get down to 33, they might engineer a few "events." Bin Laden calls them "spectacular," Prachanda calls them "catastrophe." The impact is primarily psychological.

At 32, the lake freezes zipzap. At that point, if Nepal is lucky, Prachanda is more like Fidel Castro. If Nepal is unlucky, the guy is the Nepali Pol Pot.

Look at how Castro marched into Havana. There was not much bloodshed at all.

That is what we are looking at.

Congressia Madhesias

The Nepali Congress has got to be my least favorite political party in all of Nepal. They messed up the 1990s. They let down the high hopes generated by the 1990 movement. They became the new status quo. They thwarted genuine aspirations of the Madhesis and the Janajatis. They turned democracy into a circus. They institutionalized corruption. They hounded smaller parties.

Their track record leaves much to be asked for.

On the other hand, if the Madhesis inside the Congress were to get more assertive, that could herald a fundamental social transformation of the party.

Look at someone like Ram Baran Yadav. He is a medical doctor. That does not necessarily make him the smartest kid on the block. But that does mean he has read a few books. He is a Yadav. That works for great electoral arithmetic in the Terai. Someone like him should be aspiring for the leadership position within the party.

Bimalendra Nidhi might have taken the jump. He has not played second fiddle within the Nepali Congress (D).

Raju Ban Gaya Gentleman

When an all-party government is formed, I see Rajendra Mahto as one of the ministers. Tripathy and Mahto from the Sadbhavana.

Ever since 2/1 Mahto has been generous to me with his time over the phone. I have interviewed him. I have asked him for phone numbers of other leaders I needed to talk to. I have sought his opinions. I have sought clarifications from him on statements made by the parties. But that is not the reason.

Mahto is a major emerging political talent on the national scene. His district Sarlahi is one of the Sadbhavana bastions on par with Nawalparasi and Morang. He is very easy to talk to, as in "sweet," as one of his constituents once described him to me a long time ago. But he is also resolute, and capable of taking firm stands when need be.

He has been a boon to the democratic movement.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2005

A Royal Signal: The Parliament Could Be Revived


The king appointed "the foreign minister, the chief justice and the speaker of the lower house of parliament" to the National Human Rights Commission and got roundly criticized for that. This amazes me. He lifted the emergency and he got roundly criticized. And now he has appointed the speaker of the lower house to something and the guy is getting grilled again.

For the king to appoint the speaker to something, anything, is him saying he disagrees with Paramendra Bhagat (okay, maybe I am not a factor, I just had to put that in) and thinks the 1999 parliament is not dead yet, that it can still be revived, for there can be no speaker without a parliament. If there continues to be a speaker, then the parliament is still there. It is like in one of those sci-fi movies. They put you into a deep freezer in the year 1996 when you are 36, and then when they take you out of the deep freezer in the year 2047, you are still 36, but the rest of the world has aged and changed. I guess it is sci-fi time in Nepal. So when Deuba dissolved the parliament (why, but why!) in 2002, the parliament was three years old, one more year to go. But the dissolution was like putting it into a deep freezer. And so it can still be put on display for one year.

If reviving the parliament is an option, and if the king is willing to go for it, and if all the political parties are for it, then of course I support the move. The best news out of it will be all the fundamental rights will get restored. I think the parties need to swiftly move from street mode to dialogue mode. And I really need to emphasize this point, because I am under the impression the Girija types prefer the glamor of street demonstrations and the election campaign trail to actually getting down to business through parliamentary motions and relentless political dialogues. Just look at their pasts.

After the parliament is revived, I really hope Girija does not play bad apple and veer away from the Common Minimum Program of the seven parties. Revive parliament, form an all-party government, hold unconditional peace talks with the Maoists, and go for a Constituent Assembly if you have to. That is the agreement. I emphasize this because the last time there was a movement, the original agreement was that Madhav Nepal would be Prime Minister, but when it looked like the "movement" (don't they love the glamor of the word) might actually succeed, Girija played foul and the entire movement came crumbling down.

After the parliament is revived, Girija might get tempted to do away with the CMP, which will be a huge mistake. The country will see yet another round of civil war. So stick to the CMP until the civil war is resolved.

Plus, I take great personal delight in the release of Gagan Thapa and the free movements of Baburam Bhattarai. Both have much to offer. And Prakash Karat is a name you will hear more and more. The guy will be instrumental in erecting a non-BJP, non-Congress "third force" in India. I think it is great he met with Bhattarai. Karat is trying to get the Maoists to join the mainstream.

In The News
  • Nepal: King Stifles Human Rights Commission Reuters AlertNet, UK ..... committee will now consist of the foreign minister, the chief justice and the speaker of the lower house of parliament (now dismissed by the king). All three have supported the king's takeover..... Adams said. "Instead of simply extending the term of the present commissioners, the king ignored the intent of the statute and imposed his own will." ..... Sushil Pyakurel, one of the most respected members of the commission, left Nepal and denounced the government's obstruction of the Commission's work and the king's assault on civil and political rights...... "With this move against the Commission, foreign donors should see that the king is more concerned about increasing his power than promoting the rights of the Nepali people."
  • HRW criticises Nepal's King Gyanendra's control over NHRC Press Trust of India
  • Nepal journalists protest move to "throttle" media Reuters AlertNet ....a plan by the royalist government to introduce fresh curbs on the media.... amend media laws to ban criticism of King Gyanendra's family members, and introduce longer prison terms or more fines for defamation...... Officials said the planned changes in media laws were to "regulate" the media...... Last week, authorities questioned Kanak Mani Dixit, a leading commentator who, in a newspaper article, had urged the king to be a ceremonial monarch.
  • US calls for Nepal reconciliation BBC News ....the rebels appear determined to launch large-scale attacks...... the parties and the king should begin a dialogue
  • India takes up 'Maoist tape' with Nepal army:- Webindia123
  • Indian spooks host Nepal rebel Times of India, India One of Nepal's top Maoist leaders, Baburam Bhattarai, is being quietly chaperoned around here by Indian intelligence agencies, which recently organised a meeting between him and CPM general secretary Prakash Karat. The Maoist leader is learnt to have sought the support of Indian Marxists....... The meeting took place in the Capital last week ...... Although the meeting was facilitated by intelligence agencies, Karat and Bhattarai have a common link - they share their alma mater, Jawaharlal Nehru University........ When contacted, Karat confirmed the meeting ....... New Delhi could be keen to use Left's influence over the Maoists to get them to join the seven-party pro-democracy alliance in Nepal. Maoists have so far refused to join the campaign to reinstate Nepal's Parliament........ Official sources indicated that Bhattarai was, indeed, being taken around in the Capital by intelligence officials. In fact, the Maoist leader is understood to have readily agreed to come to a meeting place decided by Karat....... When the two met, Karat wanted to know how Maoists see future events unfolding in Nepal, said sources. Bhattarai talked of his belief in the democratic struggle against royalty. In the process, he is learnt to have admitted to the fast widening gulf between him and Prachanda, the supreme leader of the Nepal Maoists and a votary of armed struggle........ Bhattarai has stepped up his networking here following his split with Prachanda........ "While Bhattarai claimed to be in command and said that he along with commander Mahara and Kishan Paykural have been asked to talk to Indian authorities and other Nepali political parties, it is clear that he has lost out in the leadership struggle."
  • Peace Process Needed in Nepal Scoop.co.nz (press release), New Zealand
  • Madan Prasad Khanal: Nepal - Fact And Fiction Scoop.co.nz (press release) democracy was retored in Nepal after three-decades of palace-directed non-party rule, but it was still-born...... The newly empowered political parties often amply rewarded these people, inaugurating a whole new series of patron-client distortions....... The challenge before the mainstream parties is clear. If they think their reading of the public mood is correct, then they should lose no time in joining hands with the Maoists and campaign for a republican Nepal.
  • NEPAL: FNJ, NBA to protest proposed press law Asia Pacific Media Network, CA Federation of Nepalese Journalists (FNJ) and Nepal Bar Association (NBA), after a joint meeting, has decided to jointly fight the proposed press law.
  • Nepal told to free student leader BBC News, UK judges described the detention of student leader Gagan Thapa and former minister Jaya Prakash Gupta as illegal...... The pair, caught in April after weeks on the run, must be freed by Wednesday....... "The detention is against the spirit of the constitution and against the law," the court order said...... The court also ordered the government not to re-arrest the men, which is what happened after they were released earlier this month....... it is unclear whether the men will be freed by Wednesday.
  • Scribes demonstrate against proposed Press Act in Nepal Hindu, India
  • Nepal releases key student leader BBC News, UK Last week, the authorities freed another prominent student leader, Rajendra Kumar Rai, of a left-wing student group following a similar court order.
  • Amnesty International criticises Pakistan,Bangladesh and Nepal Outlook (subscription), India .... for targeting minority communities and for excesses committed by security forces in the name of national security....... arbitary arrests and detentions continued unabated in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and China...... In tribal areas, arbitary arrests and possible extrajudicial executions were reported during security operations ... in March 2004 in South Waziristan. .... Pakistan.... blasphemy laws continued to be used to prosecute members of minorities ..... Slamming the Bangladesh government for its "failure" to stem a "tide of violence," the report said main victims of violence were minority community members and human right defenders...... nexus between the criminals amd politicians appeared to reinforce institutionalised corruption, violence and impunity for human rights abuses ...... report also slammed the security forces for "systematically" obstructing courts and National Human Rights Commission of Nepal...... China ... serious and widespread human rights violations perpetrated across the country.
  • India denies knowledge of Nepal Maoist leader's meeting:- Webindia123 The Indian embassy said Wednesday it was not aware of any meeting between a top Maoist leader from Nepal and India's communist leaders in New Delhi .... Karat had confirmed he met Bhattarai in New Delhi .....Bhattarai went underground in 2003 after peace talks between the Nepalese government and the rebels broke down. He carries a price tag on his head and is wanted by the Interpol. ..... Earlier, he had caused a similar embarrassment to the Indian government by holding a secret meeting in a hotel in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, with an influential leader of Nepal's largest communist party, the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist.
  • Nepal's breakaway Maoist rebel leader meets Indian communists ... ReliefWeb (press release) ..... to discuss whether the rebels could join a pro-democracy alliance in the Himalayan kingdom .... Prachanda is considered to be a hardliner who espouses armed struggle..... New Delhi was keen to use the influence of India's leftist parties over Nepal's Maoists to get them to join the seven-party pro-democracy alliance .... India may only give Nepal "non-lethal aid" such as jeeps, night-vision goggles and bullet-proof jackets.
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