Maoist Military Victory Vs Roundtable Conference With The Maoists

There are three political forces in the country: Monarchists, Maoists, democrats. So far each has been operating independent of the other, although attempts have been made by each camp to get one or the other to join them. The king in the past has tried to get the democrats to join him against the Maoists. The Maoists have constantly tried to get the democrats to join them to throw away the monarchy. And the democrats, mainly the Nepali Congress, in the past has tried to use the king's army against the Maoists, without success.

The stalemate continues as each camp seems to think it can gain more ground by refusing to enter into dialogue. Seeking dialogue has been thought of as a sign of weakness.

The king has expanded his personal power base as seen in increased state allowances to the royal family and his current direct rule. The Maoists have broken up the scant state structure in much of the countryside and can be said to be in de facto control. Both the guns have expanded their power bases at the expense of the democrats.

The democrats, on their part, have done nothing much to steal the political and social thunder of the Maoists. And they have not come anywhere close to republicanism so as to hit back at the monarchy ideologically.

So far the Monarchists are center stage. It is as if the insurgency has been a boon to them. Royalist ministers talk as if they expect the king's direct rule to stay on for at least three years, perhaps beyond.

The king, on his part, seems eager to soothe the rough edges, make cosmetic changes, but make no basic compromise. Chances are he will not be able to fool the international community, his target audience. Instead he is alienating the two forces he will end up having to do business with as things hot up.

The king seems to be counting too much on the fact that the Maoists might have been quite a menace, but they are nowhere close to taking over any of the district headquarters, let alone the national capital.

That is where the newly launched democratic movement comes in. The parties don't have guns. But street demonstrations can go a long way. If the king will not listen to reason, he will perhaps listen to the streets.

The Monarchist strategy seems to be do deal with the Maoists politically only if their military victory is imminent. By then, it might be too late. And that strategy does not take into account the democrats, a force slow to warm up, but once it does, it is the strongest.

In The News

• New libraries spring up in Nepal's furthest corners Christian Science Monitor Foreigners come to Nepal expecting a land of magic, mountains, and Brad Pitt...... until the 1960s, access to education was limited to the royal family and its retinue....... It costs about $20,000 to build each library and to supply it with 3,000 to 5,000 books written in Nepali and English..... the Jhuwani library's new computer center, where a dozen terminals and workstations were arrayed in as orderly a fashion as they would be in any suburban high school classroom in the United States.
• Nepal’s civil war: from security to politics Open Democracy, UK some sort of political rapprochement between the wayward and outdated Nepali political parties and the monarchy might take place .... these parties and their leaders have nothing much to offer except “protest and demonstration”, which in the present circumstances is only going to strengthen the rebels ..... India.. fears that in a few years some of its own states (Bihar and Andhra Pradesh) will be as red as Nepal.....prioritises stability rather than democracy in Nepal..... The Maoist movement is not going to wither away. It is a real political problem that needs real work to solve and the solution will only come through negotiation...... A new factor in this situation is the Nepali diaspora and a new generation ..... diasporas now play a great role both in fomenting and containing the conflict..... The fundamental characteristic of the Nepali state, since its very formation in 1768, is that of conflict within the ruling class...... all the achievements went swiftly downhill when the first Nepali Congress government poured cold water on the spirit of the people’s movement ...... Not one post-1990 government completed its term in office ..... The social alienation based on caste, religion, ethnicity, gender and uneven and centralised development policy all helped fuel the movement...... Charismatic leaders like Baburam Bhattarai ..... These young people, indoctrinated by a Maoist rhetoric of a utopian, just society, took up arms against their own clans while the ruling class in Kathmandu remained in deep slumber...... Central governments in Kathmandu regarded the situation as a law-and-order rather than a political challenge, and started to suppress the movement. They never tried to correct their own mistakes and bring Maoists into the mainstream..... Nepali political parties and governments..... failed to establish good relationships with Nepal’s bureaucracy, monarchy and security forces (all of which have grossly discredited the image of successive governments)...... For the government, it is terrorism; to the Maoist it is liberation from feudal rule; for some others it is a case of “revolutionary romanticism”...... the insurgency as a communist revolution or as an ethnic alliance against high-caste, Hindu-dominated political elite...... not an ideological war because Maoists have always been willing to come to terms ...... the assertive royal palace backed by the army ...... Rebellion was inevitable, given an environment of rampant corruption and injustice coupled with extreme poverty. ..... the excessive behaviour of post-1990s political leaders..... the role of the international community – particularly the US, Britain and India – in fuelling hostilities by supplying arms, cannot be dismissed. ...... The Maoist movement seems to have been supported by various clandestine revolutionary groups from neighbouring countries and beyond; and the international community’s ever-increasing interest in Nepal prompts speculation as to whether interference has worsened or helped mitigate the conflict..... Civil society, political parties and even the king have failed to bring these actors into a common platform to address the Maoist problem ..... unholy compromise between elected politicians and selected elites ..... parliamentary political parties (who in theory believe in representative democracy, but have neglected to assimilate social movements into the system) ...... the only chance for peace in Nepal lies not in “stability” but in a genuine democratic politics.
  
• Largest Anti King Rally In Nepal SouthAsia Network Police in riot gear were posted around the market, but did not intervene.
  
• Maoists bomb top army man's house in Nepal Sify, India Brigadier General Deepak Gurung's house in Kawasoti village, Nawalparasi district, southwestern Nepal, was "badly damaged in the bomb attack" ..... three suspected Maoists riding a motorcycle carried out the bombing before escaping ..... Maoists also attacked Gurung's house two years ago
  
• ‘Land pooling started for 2nd int’l airport’ Gorkhapatra the government would build the second international airport of the country in Bhairahawa within three years ..... Gautam Buddha international airport .... the government would initiate development programme in Lumbini and the people would find it a different place within a year. .... no heritage sites of the Kathmandu valley would remain in dilapidated state in five-year time. ..... About the condition of the Royal Nepal Airlines Corporation (RNAC), he said that it had been affected by cancer
  
• NEPAL: Rally organisers ask resignation of Gorkhapatra editor Asia Pacific Media Network, CA In a democracy, people are allowed to criticize. But to denounce one’s nationality and the head of one’s state is not a democratic value, he reportedly said....... Sujata Jost spent thousands of dollars to spread rumors about Nepal. On Sunday’s demonstration, she spent $50 a head to bring each person there .... Ganga Chaulagain, who has denied the quote
• King’s army grapples with desertion Calcutta Telegraph, India ..... suspicions that the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) is manned by straw soldiers...... The king’s army is grappling with desertions forced by threats from Maoist rebels. For any army in the middle of a war, desertions are a corrosive danger...... “He told me that he had quit the RNA because it did not pay him enough to meet the extortionate demands of the Maobadi,” Mukarji said...... evidence from Nepal on the weakness of the RNA has been mounting...... estimated the total number of desertions by RNA soldiers at “between 200 and 300 a month”..... ..... “the insurgency has riven families”....... Mehta estimated that the Maoists’ army had a strength of 8,000 to 12,000 fighters but only 4,000 weapons. “They have the power of intimidation, the power to strike fear but very little fire-power.” ..... RNA .... some of its best and most important fighting units are stationed inside the Narayanhiti compound in Kathmandu and are effectively a palace guard....... the RNA has improved its defensive tactics but it is not taking the battle to the Maoists. ..... Of late, the Maoists have targeted the families of Royal Nepal Army personnel. They have extorted money, locked up the houses and seized the property of RNA personnel. As a result, the families of RNA personnel have been impelled to flee their villages overnight to safer places ...... The violence against the families of RNA personnel has increased especially in the insurgency-hit districts ...... The RNA says altogether 292 families of RNA personnel have fled their villages since February 1
• The Nepal Problem The Asian Wall Street Journal .... now more than 100 days since King Gyanendra unleashed his assault on democracy ..... instated emergency powers that made Nepal effectively an absolute monarchy ..... The Maoist rebellion has continued largely unabated ..... the only bright note of the 100 days was that the Maoists and the royal government both agreed to allow the United Nations to deploy a relatively robust human-rights monitoring mission in the field ..... Nobody wants Nepal to collapse under a Maoist onslaught, and the king has done everything he can to paint himself as the last bastion of defense against the Maoists...... One hundred days of royal rule have proven that the king was being honest when he said he did not have much of a plan
• Statement By 25 Human Rights Organizations INSN ..... should the regime appoint members of the NHRC, they would engage in pleasing the current regime, completely undermining the indispensable norms of the Paris Principles such as independence, impartiality, efficiency and professionalism...... attempt of the regime to enforce the “Amendment to Nepal Acts related to Media Laws” that aim to curtail free and fair news reporting and publication..... demonstrate the actual end of the “state of emergency.”
• When A Family's Future Is On The Line The Washington Post My father-in-law has vowed that if the Maoists ever try to force his grandchildren into their ranks, “I have a sword, I’m an old man, and I’m not afraid of dying.” ..... my father-in-law, a village priest, had chanted through much of the 26-hour flight to ensure the plane stayed in the air .......My mother-in-law had never before seen a traffic light, but was soon asking trenchant questions about American life: Why was it that only women seemed to work as store clerks? Why are all the road workers black? ...... Soldiers were coming by day and warning, “You’re either with us, or with the terrorists.” Rebels came by night and said the same thing. ....... An entire village of low-caste potters’ huts near our village was reportedly burned to the ground....... There must be countless Washington families who have gone through these same tense moments: Rwandans, Sudanese, Peruvians, Guatemalans. ...... my mother was in elementary school when the Nazis swept through Poland, where most of her family still lived...... when armed men are bent on violence, there’s nothing a relative half a world away can do....... The mob went on its way, the soldiers still marching beside them.
• Syangja: Maoists Preparing To Take Students INSN Maoists are training the students in different schools of village areas in the name of giving janabadi (people’s) education...... a Maoist cadre had ordered girl students to cut their hair and wear jeans pants ...... A student said they would come and select the strong students and take those students with them. ...... he just said it is a time of war between two rifles, so the people may need to bear risk and in the war for their right they may need to pay a high price at any cost also
• Mass Meeting Pamphlet INSN
• Fear Of Freedom Or Freedom From Fear CK Lal Nepali Times Madhab Nepal ... he wants the future of monarchy to be a topic of national debate. ..... Sher Bahadur Deuba ....He was persuaded that a chronically squabbling parliament was a hindrance to fight the Maoist menace...... Whatever you may say about Girija Prasad Koirala, at least he has been consistent in his main demand – restoration of parliament as a point of departure for progressive changes in the polity. Now, seven mainstream parties representing 95 percent of parliamentary strength have supported this demand. The Europeans, Indians and the Americans welcomed this new-found unity among the parties and have finally realised the folly of supporting the needless political experiments of the last three years...... the head-in-the-sand attitude of Kathmandu’s ruling elite about February First persists ..... flex administrative and financial muscle to muzzle the media in excesses that transcend the Panchayat. ..... 22 May 2002—the day Deuba dismantled parliament and announced elections he knew could never be held. ...... The royal takeover is defended by fanning fears of a Maoist takeover. ...... a democratic and progressive Nepal is sure to emerge from this churning........ it’s time to restore due process under the constitution through a reactivated lower house.
• Parties Protest Nationwide NepalNews.com ...... reinstatement of the dissolved House of Representatives, formation of an interim government to hold peace talks with the Maoists and hold constituent assembly elections to draft a new constitution, if necessary...... Though security was on high alert, there was no intervention during the rally...... thousands participated in peaceful protests in Biratnagar, Jankapur, Birgunj, Jaleswor, Gaur, Malangwa, Pokhara and Dhangadi.
• Trouble In The Mountain Kingdom Humanscape.org .....India is a key player in Nepal and has, by oiling the monarchical-army machinery from late 2001, contributed to the crisis..... investing so blithely on the force that is on the losing side of history ...... 1 February 2005 can only be described as a royal military-palace coup...... The king was not constrained by the constitution of 1990 since its provisions were not adequate to prevent a monarch from defeating its very spirit and letter...... the Maoists seemed to only get stronger ...... Nepal registering the highest number of newly recorded disappearances in the world, rapes, extra-judicial killings, torture, displacement, illegal arrests and detentions ...... state actors registered the victory in accumulating the figures ...... The Maoists had guns, but were ideological and political. The RNA had only guns and the aim of preserving status quo. It was not an equal battle...... The problem is with the structure of the RNA. It is an unprofessional fighting force, with a feudal structure, fit for ceremonial functions, at best as a palace army..... The Nepali official language is only known to 42 per cent contributing to a 60-70 per cent failure rate in the school leaving certificate...... the biggest obstacle to the peace process is the monarchy-army. ......
• Of Holes In Socks And Blank Newspapers Humanscape.org Take a good measure of emergency flour. Sift thoroughly to remove all resistance. Knead with exhortations of national security. Grill and set aside. Wash a dozen journalists and wring thoroughly. Don’t forget to strip away fundamental rights before you pop them into boiling water. Add a liberal measure of censorship guidelines. Sprinkle a dash of detentions. Grate a generous amount of intimidation. Stir in a few threats to withdraw advertisements and licenses. Simmer on low flame. Garnish with rhetoric of ‘tackling the Maoist problem’. Serve hot.

Streets Filling Up

This is great. The first day of the movement has been heartening. Just when things are heating up in Bihar as well.

I have also noted with interest Manisha Koirala's father's ouster from the Congress. The guy apparently gave an interview suggesting there is nothing in the 1990 constitution that allows for a reinstatement of the parliament, which apparently happens also to be my line. Forget the 1999 parliament, and forget the 1990 constitution.

There are three camps. If you are not for the king's move of 2/1, you are against peace and for terrorism, the Monarchists will tell you. If you are not for reviving the parliament, you are against democracy, the democrats will tell you. If you are not with Prachanda, you are against the Maoist party, the Maoists tell the Maoists like Baburam.

These hardliner stands are great for group cohesion in the three camps, but they are a major disservice to the cause of peace. All three camps will have to soften if peace is to be possible.

And if the Gulf News story reported in the Telegraph is to be believed, Baburam is back go doing business on behalf of his party. That is great news. Baburam is back in the swing. The guy is a progressive more than he is a textbook Maoist. He is capable of having a moderating influence on the Maoists without selling away the basic progressive thrust of the party. He is reasonable. It is possible to talk to him.

The letter by the three human rights organizations to Prachanda is meaningful. Human rights monitoring, to which both the army and the Maoists have agreed to, is the only and best hope to end the conflict on the table for now. That option has to be exploited to the fullest.

In The News

• Bihar Assembly dissolved Times of India
• Despite cold vibes, Indian diplomat on way to Nepal Indian Express, India
• No end in sight to Nepal's woes Bangkok Post .....the country has far from regained the normalcy King Gyanendra promised to bring within 100 days ..... Gyanendra had ``achieved a fantastic way of exercising control over almost every aspect of life'' ..... 1,516 individuals are still detained. Among the most prominent is Sher Bahadur Deuba ...... Other prominent detainees include student leader Gagan Thapa and former minister J P Gupta, who were re-arrested on May 5....... the problem ultimately has to be solved by the Nepalese ..... the crisis is an opportunity for the Nepalese people to come out and say what they want
  
• Opposition protests around Nepal BBC News Protesters want the reinstatement of the dissolved parliament and the formation of an all-party government...... Biratnagar, Janakpur and Pokhara...... The opposition parties argue that an all-party government would create an environment for holding peace negotiations with the Maoist insurgents..... opposition leaders say restoration of peace is not possible unless people's democratic rights are restored first.
  
• More than 10,000 rally in Nepal's capital; largest anti-king rally ... Santa Fe New Mexican
• Manisha’s royalist father gets party boot Calcutta Telegraph Prakash Koirala was today expelled from the Nepali Congress for toeing the royalist line ..... the party was founded by Prakash’s father B.P. Koirala and is now headed by his uncle and three-time Prime Minister, Girija Prasad Koirala ...... the toughest action taken by the party against a senior leader after the expulsion of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba on May 26 2002 ...... forced to act after Prakash gave an interview to the English daily The Himalayan Times yesterday opposing the party’s demand for reinstatement of the House of Representatives. He argued that such a move would be against the spirit of the constitution and suggested a round table conference to discuss the issue ...... He also said that since the Supreme Court has quashed a writ challenging the dissolution of the House of Representatives, there was no point in pursuing the idea any further...... a member of the Central Working Committee
  
• Nepal's army gears up to better rights record:- Webindia123, India Dogged by allegations of human rights violations and the spectre of a permanent embargo on foreign military aid, Nepal's army has announced a clutch of "positive steps" ..... welcomed the setting up of a monitoring office in the capital by the UN Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and was ready to provide access to detention sites ...... "We also hope they would show up the human rights abuses committed by the Maoist insurgents and help push them towards peace talks"...... Besides the UN agency, it said its detention sites were also open to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) as well as Nepal's National Human Rights Commission...... the army said it would have a national central registry of detainees to keep track of people under arrest...... The army's home page on the Internet has a human rights section through which complaints can also be made anonymously...... the RNA said tainted soldiers will not be sent to UN missions.
• Maoists say Prachanda tape is 'propaganda':- Webindia123 ..... the rebels issued a statement that described the tape's contents as "witless propaganda". ..... Prachanda issued a statement Sunday, admitting it was his voice on the tape but clarifying it was an earlier tape and not relevant to the current times.
  
• Nepal Army plays tape saying India in league with Nepal Maoists Newindpress
• Nepal Democracy Movement: A scene from the rally. Pic by Chandra ... United We Blog, Nepal .....In an encouraging beginning of Jana Andolan 2062, at least five thousand pro-democracy activists rallied in heart of Kathmandu demanding restoration of democracy and civil liberties in Nepal. Activists from all seven political parties of the recently launched United Front ..... Riot police were stationed on all the corners- on way to Dillibazzar, on way to Ghanta Ghar, on way to Baghbazzar and on way to Jay Nepal Hall....... In front of Democracy Wall in Baghbazzar, a truck full of riot police was parked. Police were moving around....... A big truck and at least 50 police were standing at the Bhotahitti Chowk...... Being in the rally is always a strange experience for me. I mean you feel aroused, energized. Blood starts circulating fast...... all most all participants of the rally were hard core political activists...... Did that mean the rally had no public support? ...... “Well, they definitely don’t have public support,” shop keeper Prabin Tuladhar, 35, told me...... “The rally is not different to that of 2046,” he told me, “people didn’t come in the beginning at that time too. I think the momentum will gain momentum in the days to come.” ..... Yogesh Upadhaya of CPN UML was on the microphone. He spoke of the need of unity among democratic forces and continue fighting for full democracy. Then spoke Hari Bol Bhattarai, a NC leader. “The King should be constitutional. Parliament should be restored. People should rule over themselves.” ...... KP Oli, a CPN UML heavyweight walking in Ason Chowk talking with someone over the cell phone.
• Democracy protests in four Nepali cities CBC Kathmandu, Biratnagar, Janakpur and Pokhara ..... the political parties have demanded the monarch reinstate the dissolved parliament to allow a multiparty government to negotiate a political settlement with the insurgents...... more than 10,000 protesters gathered at Asan..... Hundreds of police in riot gear were posted around the market, but did not intervene...... future rallies, including one planned for Friday, would be bigger ..... The king lifted the emergency at the end of April and rallies are now allowed
• Prachanda's Statement INSN
  
• Delhi Sniffs King's Ploy Telegraph ...a report in Gulf News that some key Maoist leaders, including Baburam Bhattarai, held meetings with CPI leader A.B. Bardhan and his CPM counterpart Prakash Karat recently ..... the army, prompted by the king, was “trying to play hardball” ..... Neither the king nor his close aides took the Indian statement lightly. The palace, unhappy with critical reports that have appeared in the Indian media in the past few weeks, feels these reflect the view of the government.
• Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, International Commission of Jurists Write To Prachanda INSN .....an ongoing wave of human rights abuses by Maoist forces over the last few months casts serious doubts on the credibility of your repeated public commitments to that effect..... in a press release of 5 April 2005 the CPN (Maoist) publicly called for an international human rights monitoring presence in Nepal ...... the CPN (Maoist) also pledged to cooperate fully with any such mission, if established, and to be answerable for any human rights abuses by CPN (Maoist). On 12 April, you personally reiterated the pledge to fully support and cooperate with any human rights monitors ..... On 16 May 2005, Shanker Sarki, a soldier, who had returned home from Congo where he had served in the United Nations Peacekeeping Forces, was abducted from his home in Dhangadi, Kailali district by 12 armed Maoist cadres in civilian dress and killed...... Specifically, we call on to publicly to prohibit CPN (Maoist) forces from engaging in targeting civilians and civilian objects and carrying out indiscriminate attacks, arbitrary killings, torture and other ill-treatment, taking hostages and recruiting child soldiers. We also call on you to remove from their post any CPN (Maoist) cadres who are responsible for human rights abuses....... With reference to your interview of 18 April, we remind you that the civil war in Nepal falls under the purview of international humanitarian law. Among the fundamental protections during internal armed conflicts are those contained in Common Article Three in the four Geneva Conventions of 1949, regarding the treatment of persons taking no active part in the hostilities. This article prohibits, among other things, summary executions, torture and other ill-treatment, the taking of hostages, and punishment without fair trial. Credible information indicates that CPN (Maoist) forces routinely violate Common Article Three by engaging in brutal and abusive activities against civilians and others not taking active part in hostilities....... Common Article Three binds both states parties and insurgent groups. Adherence is not based on reciprocity ...... arguments set out in the interview published on 18 April that RNA abuses “outnumber” abuses by your forces or that your ideology justifies your actions in no way exempt you and your forces from your obligations under international law....... mechanisms to allow transparent and independent investigations by the UN teams in areas under (CPN) Maoist control ...... each side is responsible for the conduct of its own forces
  
• India Should Talk To Maoists: Gen. Mehta Nepalnews.com it is true that India is trying to talk to (Nepali) Maoists ..... Speaking in Nepali language ..... “As India is holding dialogue with Nepali (parliamentary) parties, there should be no problem in holding dialogue with the Maoists” ..... even from the point of view of `balance of power’ (within Nepal) it was important that the Maoists army did not disintegrate...... Indian authorities have been saying, of late, that Maoist problem has emerged as the no. 1 internal security problem in the country.

Democratic Solidarity With The Nepali Congress

In my last blog entry, I have explored the possibility of a democratic coalition minus the Nepali Congress. I will have to revise that. If the NC chooses to stand by its demand to revive the parliament, it has every democratic right to do so. Instead the NC cadres should be used to create pressure to compromise with the king on the idea of an interim government, which is what I have stated in an earlier blog entry.

And I still think the RPP, RJP, and the Mandal Sadbhavana should be invited in. All three are for constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy. The last time major protests were launched, Deuba's Congress was kept at bay because Girija said so. Guess what, the king was able to exploit that split. This time the king is being given an opportunity to tap on someone like Surya Bahadur Thapa. Better to have Thapa in your democratic camp. Thapa is the civilian version of King G: he is cunning as hell. Can't afford to have him at large.

In The News

• Nepal displeasure to India, Britain on opposition alliance issue Xinhua, China On May 16, the Indian government and European Union had separately welcomed the forging of alliance among seven opposition parties in Nepal.
• Nepal expresses "concern" to India over statement alliance Outlook (subscription) the common position announced by the parties, who represent over 90 percent of dissolved parliament........ The seven party alliance has announced fresh stir beginning May 22 to restore democracy and fundamental rights urging King Gyanendra to reinstate the Parliament and form an all party government.
  
• Nepal warns parties against anti-king slogans Reuters AlertNet, UK Nepal's royalist government told political parties on Saturday it would not tolerate public criticism of King Gyanendra during pro-democracy protests........ After widespread condemnation, the king lifted emergency rule but he continues to hold unlimited power, many political leaders are still in jails and civil liberties remain suspended........ Earlier this month, Nepal's Maoist rebels said they supported the political parties in their campaign to restore democracy....... The government said the Maoist rebels might infiltrate the rallies and the political parties would be held responsible for any "untoward incidents" during the protests.
• Nepal Army plays tape saying India in league with Nepal Maoists Newindpress, India the Royal Nepal Army raised a new roadblock by making public video tapes it said suggest New Delhi's links with the Nepal Maoist faction led by Baburam Bhattarai......... ‘‘India was clearly suggesting that the two leaders would be released only after their man Dr Bhattarai was reinstated in his earlier posts,'' Prachanda said....... Bhattarai was head of the ‘People's Government' and later of the western regional command of the Maoists....... Prachanda claimed that ‘‘we received a message from the Indian authorities for a dialogue, but we said we would welcome them in our territory with full guarantee of their safety and security.''...... Hours after the RNA released the tapes, the Indian Embassy in Kathmandu issued a statement, denying Prachanda's claims about the Government of India. It also questioned the authenticity of the audio-visual tapes played by the RNA....... New Delhi has already sent a batch of thermal imagers. Radio sets, jeeps and trucks will be sent in the coming weeks. India has also agreed to service some of the Insas rifles being used by the RNA. The RNA act of releasing the tapes has stumped New Delhi........ $40 million package for RNA includes training at the Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare school. Supply of Cheetah helicopters, Insas rifles and sophisticated surveillance equipment.......Senior Maoist leaders like C P Gajurel and Mohan Baidya arrested in India and still in custody.
• Resume arms supply, Nepal urges India Hindu Nepal said it was short of bullets for 5.56 and 7.62-bore weapons and would have to dig into its final reserves if India did not start replenishing its stocks.... the 32,000-strong "first-line" troops of the Royal Nepal Army need at least 65 lakh rounds of ammunition for its two main types of standard issue weapons.
  
• Nepal on its knees for arms Calcutta Telegraph Royal Nepal Army (RNA) is now delving into its reserves of ammunition for its standard issue India-supplied INSAS 5.56-mm and 7.62-mm combat weapons. The stock of ammunition for these guns could run “dangerously low” in less than a month....... The Maoists have declared that their armed insurgency has entered a phase of “strategic offensive”. Consequently, military authorities expect the Maoists to attack RNA establishments. Given the RNA’s level of training, the usage of ammunition is high....... The RNA has two battalions of special forces equipped with American and Belgian guns but the Indian Small Arms System (INSAS) 5.56 mm and the old 7.62 mm self loading rifle (that is being phased out from the Indian Army) are its primary weapons....... The RNA, which is in the middle of an expansion programme, also needs more INSAS rifles, mine-protection vehicles, field guns and bulletproof jackets.
  
• Nepal foreign secy raps Indian envoy Times of India India's envoy here sought Nepal's support for his country's bid to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, but a top Nepalese official used the occasion to blast New Delhi......... "Development of multi-party democracy must be an essential part of any acceptable and sustainable resolution of the conflict," the EU said.
  
• Nepal rights official chooses 'self-exile' in Delhi:- Webindia123, India
• Nepal tightens grip on media, new law passed Deccan Herald, India Tightening its grip on the media despite lifting of emergency, Nepal's Royal government has passed strict laws aimed at curbing press freedom, prohibiting any news item that causes "hatred or disrespect" against King Gyanendra and his family members..... the government's intention to "totally control free press and to convert it into government's propaganda machinery."....... The law, which is yet to be made public, prohibits publishing any item that "causes hatred or disrespect against the King and his family members." It bans publishing items that promote or help terrorists, terrorism and destructive activities and prohibits broadcasting news-based programmes by private FM radio stations, besides restricting license to a single individual to operate only two options out of radio, television and newspaper.
• Nepal to support Egypt for Security Council permanent membership Xinhua, China
• UML Democracy Bulletin 10 INSN
• Press Release By Six Parties After Meeting Natwar Singh INSN .....delegation handed him over a copy of their consensual road map for restoration of full democracy and peace in Nepal. Mr. Singh was happy and expressed full support to the proposed road map. The meeting lasted for more than 45 minutes in a happy and relaxed ambiance. ....... delegates reminded Mr. Singh of 1951 commitment of then Prime Minister of Jawahar Lal Nehru for the elections of the sovereign constituent assembly. Such an election for a constituent assembly has to be preceded by restoration of the dissolved House of Representatives. The HoR will set up a national government competent to hold peace talk with the Maoists. The delegates assured the Minister that such peace talk could be held meaningfully and peace would be restored in Nepal along with a fundamental restructuring of the nation state of Nepal......... The Minister reiterated his faith and trust in the capabilities of political parties. He asked them to be in touch on permanent basis. He expressed happiness at the unity of political parties........ Pradi Giri – Nepali Congress (D), Rajan Bhattarai – CPN (UML), Dr. Shekhar Koirala and Mathura Prasad Ghimire – Nepali Congress, Hridayesh Tripathi and Rajendra Mahto – Nepal Sadbhawana Party (A), Chandra Dev Joshi – United Left Front, Ganga Paudel – People’s Front
• Gorkhapatra's Creative Journalism INSN “The bringing of 100 to 150 Nepalese to Washington yesterday wasn’t merely a shameful act, but also severely to be condemned. In a democracy, people are allowed to criticize. But to denounce one’s nationality and the head of one’s state is not a democratic value.” ....... “Former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s daughter Sujata Jost spent thousands of dollars to spread rumors about Nepal. At yesterday’s demonstration, she spent $50 a head to bring each person there, and because Sunday was a holiday, there were a few Nepali laborers present” ......“Those who bankrupted the nation by committing corruption through the Lauda, Dhamija, and Chase Air scandals, and those who helped the corrupt people in high positions, are trying to reincarnate. But nobody is ready to believe these corrupt people.”
• Musharraf gives tacit backing to Nepal King's power grab Outlook (subscription), India Musharraf has said the monarch's action should be seen in the light of failure of the previous governments to contain the Maoists' "menace." ..... The General said he has good relations with the King ...... he believed that systems should change if they failed to resolve problems faced by the country....... "Nation is not made for democracy, democracy is made for the nation. If the nation is suffering, something has to be done" ..... Chamberline and Nepolean were responsible for establishing democracies in Britain and France
• 50 Maoists killed in Nepal clashes Daily Times ... the rebels said only six guerrillas were killed in the fighting, including their eastern area commander.
  

Absolute/Relative Power And Money

Say you are an absolute monarch of a country of 10 million people with a GDP of $500 million, drawing an annual salary of $100,000 a year. Or you are a truly constitutional monarch, totally devoid of political power, widely respected, perhaps more popular than any other person in the country, of a country that influences 2 billion people, and has a thriving GDP of $50 billion, with you drawing a salary of $500,000 a year or more, with a host of businesses of global scales in a thriving economy. Which would you prefer? I would go for the second option.

If I am worth $10, and you are worth $5, I am twice as rich as you. But if you are worth $10 and I am worth $15, I am no longer twice as rich as you, but I am richer than I was before. Which option would you rather go for? I would go for the $15 option.

A truly constitutional monarchy is the $15 option for the king. Saying good-bye to the idea of reviving the parliament and the 1990 constitution in favor of an interim government and a new, progressive constitution is the $15 option for the Bahuns.

I have been roundly criticized for my near euphoric reaction to the king's lifting the emergency at the end of April. Now I am supposed be either a Monarchist, or a naive fool who could not see the king's cunning. After all, restrictions on fundamental rights are still in place, and countless Bahuns are still in detention.

Am I a Monarchist? I am for peace. If getting rid of the monarchy will bring peace, I am for getting rid of the monarchy. If retaining it will bring peace, I am for retaining it. But the issue of the monarchy is for the 27 million Nepalis to decide, not for me or for Girija or Prachanda. And the last nationwide polls show a clear majority of the people are for a constitutional monarchy, and so that is my officially stated line. If the people want to keep the monarchy, the Maoists may not take it away from them. The people are the source of power, not any guns.

Am I naive? If the king thought lifting the emergency but keeping the ordinances that curb freedoms would fool anyone, least of all the foreign powers, then he was the one being naive. But I don't see that to be the case. He meant to take a limited step in the positive direction, and he did not expect to be seen as doing anything more.

My biggest fear after 2/1 was that the Panchayat might get revived. But the lifting of the emergency tells me that is not in the cards. The king might be stretching the 1990 constitution, but he is at least paying lip service to it. He is trying to stay to the letter of the document, if not the spirit of it. And to me that is reason enough to be euphoric.

If you can not tell the difference between when an emergency has been imposed and when it gets lifted, that makes you politically blind. Can you tell the difference between evening and night? True, there are administrative ordinances that severely curb freedom, but ordinances are a very weak version of all that is possible during an emergency.

The thing about the emergency getting lifted is suddenly there is all this political space that the parties have to come up with a creative solution to the civil war. This space did not exist during the emergency. Can you tell the difference?

What worries me is if the law and order breakdown were to get worse, the country might yet see something worse than an emergency. Have you thought of martial law? Of direct military rule? Those are options the king continues to have. This is not me trying to scare the parties. I am not saying such a move would be justified, and I am sure not going to support such a move, quite the opposite. This is me being realistic in terms of what I see when I look at the political landscape.

Does that mean the parties need to give in to the king's wishes, the wishes of the army top brass? No. Not at all. But it is important for the parties to come clean on the question of the monarchy.

If the seven parties are for a republican set-up, they should go ahead and come clean on it. On the other hand, if they are for a Constitutional Monarchy, they should be able to offer an iron clad guarantee that the monarchy is here to stay.

But instead the parties have been monkeying around with murky waters.

Not even a Bishnu avatar can revive a parliament that does not exist. To look for a parliament that took shape in 1999 and hence expired in 2003 is like looking for me in the year 2120: I do not expect to be around and kicking in the year 2120. I expect to have died by then. So if you want to see me, come talk to me now, or 10 years from now. Don't look for me in 2120: you might end up frustrated.

But say the parliament gets magically revived. Then the Congress-UML could amend the constitution to make Girija or MaKuNe Commander-In-Chief. And they could strike up a compromise with the Maoists to go for a Constituent Assembly. And that Assembly could end up getting rid of the monarchy, not necessarily because public opinion might have turned against the monarchy so completely, but because about a dozen politicians are still mad at all the Nepal Television programs they were forced to watch during their house arrests.

When you are presenting that scenario to the king, you are cornering him. If you intend to corner him, and you corner him, that can be a sound political strategy. But if you end up cornering him according to the law of unintended consequences, chances are your mind is not in top shape to help the country out during its current difficult time.

Good chess players always think more than a few steps ahead. But the current strategy of the seven parties is about thinking only one step at a time. So the first step is to revive the parliament. And if this first step does not happen, items 2,3 and 4 on the agenda never see the light of day. Good luck.

By the way, according to that same poll, only a very small portion of the Nepali people are for the following: (1) absolute monarchy, (2) communist dictatorship, or (3) revived parliament.

Instead, why not listen to the people! Imagine a referendum was held on the issue of reviving the parliament. Guess what, the results are out. The idea of reviving the dufunct parliament lost handily. So get over it.

Instead think ahead a few steps like a good chess player. Instead of asking the king to revive the unrevivable parliament, press for an interim government. Put forth a finished list of names now.
If there were a Constituent Assembly, these same political leaders would be the ones chalking up a new constitution. Well, what prevents them from engaging in that exercise now?

And so I urge the seven parties in the coalition and the three or four that have unwisely been kept at bay to come around to my more sensible proposal.

I feel so strongly against the idea of reviving the parliament, I think serious thought needs to be given to forming a democratic coalition minus the Nepali Congress of Girija Koirala. I mean, who are these Bahuns trying to fool? They want to go back to the 1990 constitution so Bahun hegemony may continue.

In The News

• Nepal rebels bomb restaurant, ransack radio station Reuters AlertNet, UK The restaurant was almost empty at the time of the blast in Pokhara
• Nepal king faces growing revolution Workers World Armed action continues against government dissenters. Military units and armed police continue to be mobilized against protesters and opposition party leaders. The offices of the youth wing of the legally recognized United Marxist-Leninist Party continue to be forcibly occupied and the Royal Army recently fired on crowds of student protesters. Additionally, high-level officials from the parliamentary parties remain under indefinite detention and there is continued police harassment of the king’s political opponents..... She also spoke highly of Gyanendra’s decision to rescind the emer gency declaration ...... On May 10 several hundred Maoist revolutionaries launched simultaneous armed attacks on three joint security bases at Bandipur, Chorhawa and Mirchaiya. All three bases are along the east-west highway that links the rest of the country to the capital of Katmandu. ...... The CPN(M) and its affiliated organizations appear to be operating at full capacity, despite months of state terrorism.
  
• Nepal Army claims not yet received any military aid from India Outlook (subscription), India .....acknowledging that the Army was fighting the war on terror with limited resources....... The guerrillas are in a "defeated mentality" so they can become more destructive and intensify acts of terror in the days to come..... in the past three months, 556 rebels were killed, 375 surrendered and 119 weapons recovered...... In the past few years, the Royal Army investigated into 41 cases of abuses and sentenced 45 soldiers to jail terms ranging from six months to seven years...... The Army has sacked 32 soldiers, demoted 12, stopped grade to four and promotion to nine, and issued warning to eight........ Gurung played an audio tape containing the purported voice of Maoist chief Prachanda in which he alleged that India was supposed to release two of the central members of the rebels -- C P Gajurel and Mohan Vaidya -- from its jails........ But, the taped voice claimed, that India later asked the Maoists to withdraw action against their number two leader Baburam Bhattarai, who was sacked from all top posts except ordinary membership of the party for allegedly being a pro-Indian, before it releases Gajurel and Vaidya.
• Prince shapes up for crown Calcutta Telegraph Paras, the enfant terrible of Nepal and the first in the line of succession to the throne, seems to be turning over a new leaf...... it’s King Gyanendra himself who is supervising the makeover of his 33-year-old son..... He sent out personal invitations through the Royal Nepal Army to four top diplomats posted in the capital, including Indian ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee and American envoy James Francis Moriarty, for a round of golf...... the diplomats were “pleasantly surprised” when they were received by an “extremely gracious and suave” Paras on the Tribhuvan Army Golf Course at the crack of dawn on Saturday....... The normally reticent royal was in a talkative mood during the game, the sources said, showering attention on Moriarty and discussing everything from the weather to golf swings with him...... the prince, who hit the longest drive among all the players, failed to match Moriarty’s expertise, losing narrowly to him....... prince did show glimpses of that fiery temper during the weekend game with the diplomats, especially when he hit a wayward stroke or missed an easy putt
• The pen that writes off a king Indian Express There is no condom for the pen, as Khushwant Singh has often said, but Gyanendra sought to invent one through the barrel of the gun...... The government is trying to stem the flood of journalists rebelling against the royal diktat by stopping government ads in those publishing houses that do not toe the government’s line.
• Insurgency in Nepal can be controlled within a year: general Xinhua, China General Satchit Shumsher Rana ...... General Rana said the differences and even in-fighting within the top leadership of the guerrillas have resulted in the lowering of morale among their cadres..... Rana said if the strength of the RNAis raised to 125,000 from the present 100,000 and "if foreign forces do not aid the rebels," the insurgency could be eradicated within the next 10 or 15 years..... there was no popular support for the proposed protest programs launched by the seven-party alliance...... he insisted on dialogue between the king, political parties and the guerrillas to resolve the country's problems
• Nepal king's deputies taken to court for flouting law:- Webindia123 The two deputies of King Gyanendra - Tulsi Giri and Kiri Nidhi Bista, who are vice-chairmen of the council of ministers - as well as Home Minister Dan Bahadur Shahi and police chief Shyam Bhakta Thapa have been sued by the Nepal Bar Association (NBA), a body of independent lawyers..... Nepal's Chief Justice Hari Prasad Sharma Wednesday summoned the home minister to his office...... summons came after a spate of re-arrests by the government, making a mockery of the Supreme Court that had been ordering the release of several political detainees...... The government Wednesday released a dozen senior political leaders following court orders.
• India and America push for full multi-party democracy in Nepal India Daily Boucher said the situation had, however, improved in Nepal.
  

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

That is a direct quote from Lenin. Basically he is saying once in a while you have to take a regressive step, as in two progressive steps, followed by one regressive step is still one progressive step ahead. As a matter of strategy, it is okay once in a while to make unholy alliances.

I think the Bahuns are determined to take one step back for now. The highly imaginative idea of reviving the parliament is a step to sideline the king. Once the parliament is in, they will amend the constitution to take the army away from the king. And they will then want to use the army against the Maoists. Which will put us back at square one. The same army will not put a better fight with Girija or MaKuNe as Commander-In-Chief.

But that is if the parliament is revived. I don't know if I should feel good about the idea that finally the parties are trying to hit back at the two extreme forces, the M&M coalition, or I should be critical that the parties are not trying to instead steal their political thunder first.

BP Koirala was right about Girija: he is a great organization man. But he does not come across as a great strategic thinker. And he gets one new idea every three years or so.

Basically it is Gyanendra, Prachanda, Girija.

During the 1990s, Girija was the center of gravity of Nepali politics, even when he was not Prime Minister. Ever since Deuba got sacked the first time around, that center of gravity has shifted to King G. And since 2/1 Prachanda has loomed larger than ever.

Reviving parliament is like killing several birds with one stone for Girija:

1. The center of gravity shifts back to him.
   
2. He gets to squeeze Deuba.
   
3. He gets to squeeze King G.
   
4. He will try to sqeeze the Maoists.

But those are big ifs. The biggest is at the beginning. Can the parliament be revived? Will it be revived? If it is revived, will the Congress play foul, and no longer feel the need for an all-party government, since in a revived parliament, a simple majority will be enough? Will it seek peace with the Maoists or instead try to avenge the death of the 1000 Congress workers at the hand of the Maoists? There is a school of thought within the Congress that wants the army under the parliament, but then that army still has to go and fight the Maoists. They are not exactly envisioning peace talks.

Prachanda's conditional support for the parties has to be seen with suspicion.

All three forces are constantly trying to use one against the other.

Peace is nowhere in sight. Confusion remains. There is much posturing and hardening of stances.

May 19

• UN concerns about situation in Nepal ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland
• Comprehensive monitoring of human rights in Nepal ReliefWeb (press release) the Nepalese courts are unable to exercise any authority even in response to habeas corpus writs issued for persons believed to be in police or army custody...... The bane of many an operation has been the amateur officials from abroad, obtained through the deeply flawed U.N. internal recruitment system. Most of these persons tend to think of themselves as authorities simply because they are wearing a U.N. hat. If such persons get control of the mission in Nepal it will mean that the Nepalese, who are very well aware of their problems and stand ready to contribute, will withdraw from genuine participation. The operation will then be deprived of its only useful source of information and knowledge.
  
• Updates from Nepal to the World United We Blog, Nepal Maoist insurgents have stepped up attacks across Nepal..... Security Forces are losing ground to the well armed, well disciplined Maoists...... With unavoidable parallels to Vietnam before the fall of Saigon , King Gyanendra’s iron grip appears to be slipping...... Democratic Parties have .. begun internal re-examination of party platforms and tactics, with many of the leaders for the first time publicly accepting past mistakes........ The public, weary of war, the endless strikes, demonstrations, party rows, and abuse by the King’s Security Forces, has greeted the statement by Maoist leader Prachanda giving conditional support for the 7-Party movement suspiciously......... King Gyanendra faced with international condemnation, both a Maoist and a Democratic revolution, and a Security Force with dwindling military supplies must soon understand that continuing to rule by bullying, will result in the damaging consequences to the Nepalese Monarchy.
• Nepal Politics: Common Man is willing to give a change to parties United We Blog, Nepal The virtues of Democracy have been too long overshadowed by the vices of the politicians.......The King so far has done little to reach out to people, hence many don’t trust him.
• Parties should go to the people of Nepal United We Blog a matter of pride for freedom and peace loving Nepalis to see seven constitutional and pro-democratic political parties agreeing for a common cause..... Now peace is not that far, democracy is in the horizon.....No bombs or guns can defeat people power..... Maoists have extended their support to the agenda of seven party alliance United Front. And parties have rightly rejected the phony offer.
  
• For Nepal, this is the last chance to move forward United We Blog
• Nepal Maoists blast transmission tower Monsters and Critics.com, UK
• Nepal govt frees 15 political prisoners Gulf Times, Qatar "The king's defeat is now certain," Bam Dev Gautam, a senior communist leader, told reporters following his release....... "I don't recognise the unconstitutionally formed commission," Deuba told reporters inside the commission headquarters.
• US to push for full return of democracy in Nepal Hindustan Times, India

May 18

• 50 Maoists killed in Nepal clashes Daily Times, Pakistan
• Nepal frees politicians, interrogates journalist Reuters AlertNet
• Prod to Nepal Calcutta Telegraph, India

May 17

• VHP extends support to Nepal King Financial Express, India
• Nepal hears graft charges against former PM Deuba Reuters AlertNet, UK
• Prosecutors in Nepal seek 10-year term for Deuba in graft case Zee News
• Maoists kill 9 Nepali soldiers and police in clash Reuters AlertNet
• India for dialogue between parties and monarchy in Nepal Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran
• For Nepal, this is the last chance to move forward United We Blog, Nepal ....statement by Prachanda to support seven party’s movement as much as possible is clear indication that Maoist’s willingness to have negotiated settlement with parties, a sign of positive overture...... Girija Prasad Koirala has opened an avenue by publicly accepting that he had made mistakes in understanding King on dissolving House of Representatives in 1994 and subsequent political failures ...... road map, that King has publicly pledged, would be to allow the parties to function...... opening of political space by King, understanding between King and parties to temporarily reinstall parliament and form a national government, bring Maoists in for negotiated settlement, and conduct election of constituent assembly.
• Human Rights In Nepal: The Views Of Dinesh Prasain
• Thapa as Nepal PM wont be restoration of democracy For the last four days, rumors have been spreading like wildfire in Kathmandu about Thapa’s return to the top post for the record sixth time..... He predicted some kind of significant change to solve the current crisis of the country. ...... Democracy in Nepal does not mean king fire the VCs, create a post of Prime Minister and nominate Surya Bahadur Thapa in that post....... Surya Bahadur Thapa is not just a man. He is a CARD. Card of the Kings. All three kings Mahendra, Birendra and Gyanendra, have used this CARD
• Democracy, And Then? by Sarahana Shrestha, Samudaya ..... we have to reject tyranny from the beginning—from now—because the will to accept tryanny has been injected into our blood from the times of our grandfathers, grandmothers, teachers, parents, and so on..... You say you will criticize the king when he does wrong: what is stopping you now? ...... An approach where a citizen is encouraged to put his and her bright mind to dull things such as pop music buzzing endlessly on the FM
• Purge In The Ranks Of Nepal Maoists IRNA ...... noted Nepalese dissenter and opinion maker Yubaraj Ghimire said, the rift in the Maoist ranks is flowing from the rivalry between two topmost leaders in the rebel organization, Baburam Bhattarai and Prachanda...... Bhattarai is the ideological father of the movement....... Prachanda sacked Bhattarai recently from the party's politburo and removed his wife Hishila Yami and Dinanath Sharma from the central committee....... The three members were divested of all official roles and downgraded to the status of ordinary members...... Bhattarai had been protesting for some time against the over-centralization of power in the hands of Prachanda....... He was also against the increasing corruption and increasing instances of extortion and lack of transparency in accounts and the party's policy of executing rival forces..... Bhattarai had also accused Prachanda of possessing a feudal mindset.
• 100 Days Of Solitude by CK Lal .... The Maoists contributed to the 100-day celebrations by self-inflicting spectacular defeats in suicidal attacks on Monday night at some of the best-guarded army bases along the East-West Highway....... From the Shah to Marcos to Musharraf, the Americans don’t really care as long as strongmen are friendly...... Outside the bubble of Kathmandu Valley, violence is intensifying...... It’s a tragedy of our times that statues of past rulers are guarded day and night by armed soldiers in the capital while unprotected citizens across the country are left to fend for themselves..... The process of state building begun after 1990 stands derailed....... the direct rule of the palace since 4 October 2002 has uprooted the shoots of democracy.
• “How dare we let it happen” Former Speaker Daman Nath Dhungana in Deshantar, 8 May ...... Why is the country once again under the direct rule of the king? The constitution of 1991 had ended any provision for the king’s direct rule...... A state of emergency can’t be imposed without the ratification of the parliament and in absence of the recommendation of democratic forces. There is no way the king can be chairman of the ministers’ council. ..... I agree with Sher Bahadur Deuba on one thing—wherever we go, we need to understand that the constitution of 1991 should be the basis to march forward. .... the king must explain which constitution he is following.
• Ian Martin Interview Nepali Times ..... Monitoring human rights and humanitarian law in a conflict situation is inherently very difficult. ..... We will be assisting the National Human Rights Commission and of course, civil society organisations. ..... we also have a mandate to do independent monitoring of the human rights situation and have very strong commitments in the agreement to having complete freedom of movement and access to places of detention, high-level channels of communication with the authorities including the army. That puts us in a position where we ought to be able to be effective...... In an armed conflict and highly politicised environment, it is not easy to ensure that we approach things with the standards of testing the credibility of information that the UN must apply...... People have to understand that it takes time. ..... my mandate is confined to that one of human rights monitoring and assistance but I certainly believe that if we can contribute to improvement in the human rights situation, it can be a positive factor in the overall path to peace. That’s been the experience in other countries. So it’s not my mandate to explore possibilities of negotiations...... The agreement is initially for a period of two years but it is renewable
• The Delhi Durbar Nepali Times India may have overestimated its own leverage. “We expected that a strong reaction would make the king back off, the other assumption was that political parties would emerge as a strong alternative” ..... There is consensus here that a sustainable solution would have to be found within Nepal, and that will depend on the knack of Nepal’s political class to work together.

Scapegoating Deuba Shows King's Desperation

First it was terrorism versus peace, but noone bought it, especially the foreign powers that were the primary target of the propaganda. So now the Monarchists are turning inwards. Look how corrupt Deuba was. We had to take steps if only to curb him. They feel as long as they can keep the domestic audience happy, they can keep on keeping on.

The RCCC is a fundamentally flawed outfit that makes blatant mockery of due process. Because it was installed by a king who is technically above the law, the outfit is supposed to be above the law. This step, instead of taking the RCCC above the law, could instead end up bringing the monarch beneath it. It could fuel the republican sentiment.

I have been critical of the seven political parties, but that is not a criticism of democracy or the democratic movement. That is a criticism within the democratic camp. When democrats criticize each other's policy positions, they are doing a legitimate, democratic thing.

I still think the protest program is not imaginative enough. But it is a common minimum program. And as long as people come out in the streets, and fundamental rights get restored, political prisoners released, that opens up space for further democratic gains. So broadly I support the program, my criticism is with the specifics. The best part about the protest program is that finally the parties are doing something. Long overdue.

What I see happening is the seven parties create sufficient pressure to get the king to agree to an interim government. I don't see the parliament revived, but I do see an interim government in the works.

If the king were to end up jailing Deuba, he might see a hostility comparable to the one he saw right after 2/1. He is misreading the seven party demand of restoring the parliament as a denunciation of Deuba. That it is not.

I mean, what exactly are the king's options? He does not have the option to go for Panchayat II. If he takes steps in that direction, the monarchy will be doomed beyond repair. He better not be chalking out his own little constitution. And he does not have the three years he asked for. I guess he will bow once sufficient internal pressure is created. Near total external isolation, hostile Maoists, and huge internal pressure: that is the scenario he is looking at. So he could give in to the democrats now, or he could look like bowing to pressure a month from now.

What amazes me about the three camps is none of them want to talk to the other. They fear, if there are talks, they might have to reexamine their respective positions.

As a matter of principle, the democrats are right, of course. But as a matter of tactics, there is not sufficient attempt to (1) guarantee the continuation of the monarchy so as to respect public sentiment and to not push the king into the irrational territory, (2) design a constitutional monarchy that is totally devoid of political power and that ends up not costing the state any money, and (3) steal the political and social thunder of the Maoists.

On the king's part, if he waits for street protests to force his hands, he will lose in terms of popularity. But if he makes creative compromises now, he stands to gain popularity.

As for Maoists, they still seem to daydream they might be able to "use" the democrats. Not about to happen. They are not taking any steps towards their ideological transformation. Big mistake.

I guess I wish maximal strength to the democrats and wisdom to M&M/Eminem, the Monarchists and the Maoists.

In The News

• Delhi backs Nepal parties’ agenda Indian Express, India India today said it would fully back the common programme drawn up by political parties..... Together, the seven political parties represent about 95 pc of the erstwhile Pratinidhi Sabha of Nepal
• India for dialogue between parties and monarchy in Nepal Outlook (subscription)
  
• Senior Nepal political leaders charged with fraud Sify, India
• Panel files 2nd corruption case against Deuba Times of India Royal Commission for Corruption Control (RCCC) charged Deuba and five others including a former Cabinet minister, Prakash Man Singh, of embezzling US$53.3 million in connection with a road construction project. Deuba will attend a hearing on Tuesday and could be sentenced the same day
  
• 52 killed in fresh Nepal violence Hindustan Times, India nearly four-hour gun battle ..... Jaraytar in Sindhuli .... The clash erupted when security forces pursued a group of Maoist rebels, said to be fleeing from an eastern district where they had fought the army last week and suffered casualties..... 700 guerrillas..... reports have been pouring in about increased Maoist activities.....five days after the outlaws attacked four security posts overnight..... a spate of abductions of around 1,000 students by rebels....
  
• China, Australia to invest in Nepal's biggest hydro-electric ... Xinhua, China West Seti Hydropower ..... 750 mega watt...... 1.2 billion US dollars...... government had granted approval to the Snowy Mountain Engineering Corporation (SMEC) of Australia to develop the project in 1994, which has been working for that project for the past one decade..... project is supposed to be completed within five and half years..... entire power generated will be sold to India at 4.95 US cents per unit
• Nepalese soldiers continue hunt for children abducted by communist ... Winnipeg Sun In the past, the rebels have whisked students away for a few days to try to indoctrinate them with revolutionary ideology, and the children are usually returned safely.
  
• ‘Disseminate true information about Nepal’ Gorkhapatra
• Delhi nudge for Nepal monarch The Statesman, India India is not too happy with the pace of re-democratisation of the Nepali government
• Review decision to resume arms supplies to Nepal: CPM to govt Zee News
• Drug smuggling along India-Nepal border unearthed:- Webindia123, India "There are well organised criminal gangs on both sides of the border. Because of better intelligence, we have had some major seizures but we have no evidence to show it is funding the guerillas".....most of the drugs were grown in the Nepal hinterland, controlled by organised gangs....."difficult to monitor the many permeable routes".
• Party Leaders Meet Their Indian Counterparts To Protest Resumed Indian Aid INSN
• Washington DC Rally INSN An estimated 700 Nepalese and many American friends of Nepal rallied in Washington, D.C. on Sunday, May 15 to call for the restoration of democracy, civil liberties, and human rights. It was the largest rally of Nepalese in US history.....“Tyranny is No Answer to Terror” ..... “No Absolute Monarchy, No Obsolete Maoism.”..... Pramod Aryal of Georgia drove for 12 hours to reach the rally...... We fought for democracy, we won democracy, and now here we are again today..... Things are really bad outside of Kathmandu...... “100 Days Gone: King Lied to Us.”..... “Boston Nepalis Against Dictatorship” ..... a sign in Nepali comparing King Gyanendra to Saddam Hussein..... Rumors had spread in the immigrant community that US police would check the protesters for identification and would arrest anyone who was illegal, and some charged pro-royalists with spreading the fear....... Several U.S. soldiers who stopped to talk with protesters expressed support for the group’s pro-democracy aims...... Letters of support were sent to the rally by U.S. Senators Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Congressmen John Mica (R-FL) and James Walsh (R-NY).....
• UML Democracy Bulletion 9
• A Letter To Gyane Samudaya
• DC Rally Pictures Samudaya
• Prosecutors in Nepal seek 10-year term for former prime minister International Herald Tribune
• The harakiri decision Afternoon Dispatch & Courier

The Emotional Structure Of The Conflict

A truck driver once asked me to explain to him as to why there was no peace in the Middle East. I proceeded to explain. He did not let me talk for long. Apparently he prided himself in keeping up with the news.

"So why do we not give a small chunk of Arizona to the Palestinians, and be done with it!" he said.

Makes perfect logical sense. Why not! 2+2 is 4. Be done with it. Palestinians want land, let's give them land, and a better living. But the logic does not penetrate the emotional forces at work in a conflict situation like the Israel-Palestine scenario. Peace making is primarily managing the many disparate emotions on the ground.

The same can be said of the triangular conflict in Nepal. All three parties to the conflict, mainly the two guns, feel like people who offer logical solutions and roadmaps are just being naive. They fear their relative power might diminish in the process. The two guns are constantly angling for an inch or two of political territory.

It is perhaps like a complicated marriage situation, or a marriage gone awry situation. The two parties to the conflict see a reality that might be near impossible for an outsider to see.

As they say, you do not have to agree with them, but it helps to try to understand. Why do they do what they do? What are the forces at work? What options do they see before the choices they make?

From a distance the slow speed of progress on the part of each party to the conflict catches attention. It is like watching bullock cart motion.

The parties to the conflict do not have the luxury to look at developments with the detachment someone like me can, from a distance.

On the other hand, only a detached, neutral observer can best facilitate the peace process, seek common ground. The skills associated are as much of emotion management as anything else.

I believe I am going to read up into the Mid-East conflict to try and get a feel for some of the emotional forces at work in the Nepali context. Right now I am into a book that takes the alternate view that no, it was not Arafat's fault that peace was not achieved in 2000.

I think the mistake western peace makers make in the context of Mid-East is to put the two parties on equal footing. The Palestinians are much weaker. That asymmetry has to be taken into account.

In The News

• 600 kidnapped students found in Nepal CBC News, Canada
• Rebels Kidnap 500 Students in Nepal ABC News
• `Gyanendra has assured that democracy will return to Nepal' Hindu, India
• Students defy ban order in Nepal Hindu, India
• Bargain between guns and democracy in Nepal Scoop.co.nz (press release)
• Nepal rebels 'beat aid workers' BBC News, UK
• Nepal police break up pro-democracy rally Reuters
• 'Maoist war funded by drugs in Nepal' Times of India, India
• Donors suspend work after Nepal Maoist attack:-Webindia123, India
• Police Arrest Dozens of Demonstrators in Nepal Voice of America

Phone Talk With Hridayesh Tripathy

Finally I was able to track him down. He has been busy between Delhi and the border districts, on the Indian side from Banke, Bardiya to Morang. He has been in Delhi, and might be for another week before he goes for another round of border area reach-out program.

I just got off the phone.

He said the king has been moving in his own way. He is in his own "mood." The Maoists have welcomed the recent unity of the seven parties. The king on the other hand might be working to put forth a constitution of his own. His people might be doing the homework.

We have been for a Constituent Assembly to make changes to the state structure for quite a while. The Congress people might finally be coming around to the idea.

The idea of reviving the parliament in the new common minimum program that is to be the backbone of the proposed movement was something we had to put in so as to keep the Congress happy. They were stuck on it. And so we gave in.

Who will revive the parliament? It will not be the Supreme Court. And the Pratinidhi Sabha can not go into a Constituent Assembly. There is no such provision. The move to a Constituent Assembly will have to be a political decision.

The Maoists on their own can not reach the goal of a republic. They can not even reach the goal of a Constituent Assembly, on their own. And they are aware of their persona non grata status among the global players. So they have started to talk some sense.

Baburam Bhattarai has been restored his status in the party. This is a new development. He and Mahara are now a committee that will talk to the other parties. Baburam has been for a "bourgeoise republic." That is a sensible position for a revolutionary party, it steers them away from senseless violence. The Maoists have changed their line. But communication with them is one way traffic. They call when they have to. We don't have the option to call them.

The fear among the population in the country has been dissipating. The public has been gearing for a movement. The people are realizing, no democracy, no peace.

The last time we launched a major movement was when Thapa was Prime Minister. And the king was able to split us. But all parties have learned their lessons. This time we will be more careful. We have improved.

It will not be a good idea to have an all-party government under Article 127. Such a government will have to work the king's agenda, not its own.

I asked Hridayeshji about the possibility of a Kisunji style interim government of 1990. He said that would be a different matter. That interim government had the powers of both a legislative and an executive.

It is for the king to worry about the future continuation of the monarchy. He needs to play his cards right and honest. This is not the time to be playing games and getting adversarial with the parties. This is not an opportune time for royal adventurism.

At this point, he gave me his email address. He can be reached at t_hridayesh@yahoo.co.in

He said he has been travelling all along the border areas. He mentioned Banke, Bardiya. He had plans for Morang. He has mostly been in Gorakhpur, he said.

India's resuming arms supplies has had a negative physchological impact on the Nepali democrats. People are a little discouraged. The king and the monarchists have scored a major propaganda victory with the Indian step. But the left leaders in Delhi are very clear on their stand against any major military supplies. That is heartening.

I inquired about his family. He said there are people who are adversarial to him because of his struggle for Madhesi rights, his anti-corruption campaign, and for his quest for democracy. But their interaction should be with me, he said, friendly and otherwise, not with my family.