The Five Development Region Thinking

Krishna's Birthday (Photo credit: izahorsky)

The Nepali Congress, the UML, and the two monarchist parties - that is pretty much it. That is their alliance. And now they threaten to warm the streets. This is weird. Something like this happened in Bangladesh several years ago. The solution they went for was a non political PM. But the parties in Nepal are not opting for that. Sushil Koirala is against the non political PM idea.

I have seen maximum flexibility on Baburam's part. He is even willing to let go of his chair but he rightly insists a consensus candidate is agreed upon first. If you think political gridlock is a problem, imagine what a political vacuum would do. If you think not having an Election Commissioner is a problem, imagine what not having a PM would do.

The president can not unilaterally decide on a PM candidate. And the current PM can only be displaced by a consensus candidate. That too is a political decision. Legally, constitutionally speaking the current PM should be displaced by the next elected PM. Holding elections on November 22 was the right thing to do.

Instead the country is inching towards street confrontations between the Congree-UML-Monarchist cadres and Maoist-Madhesi cadres. That is unfortunate. The country is moving towards major political dysfunction.

The person responsible for this gridlock is Ram Baran, the president. The best option given the circumstances is for Ram Baran to pass the election related ordinances.

If you want to replace Baburam with your own candidate as PM, you go to the people and try your best to get a simple majority. You don't go into the streets.

The call for consensus is itself the problem. The bi-polarization of Nepali politics is a good thing. The debate on federalism is tricky, and it is for the Nepali people to decide at the ballot box as to which route they will go.

सरकारविरुद्ध आन्दोलन थाल्ने विपक्षीको चेतावनी

आइतबारै आफ्नो साझा रणनीतिबारे छलफल गर्न विपक्षी १५ दलको कार्यदलको वैठक बसेको थियो।

सरकारमा आउन विपक्षीलाई आग्रह गर्ने: गठबन्धन

"राष्ट्रपतिले दिएको समयसीमा भइन्जेल सहमति खोज्ने प्रयत्न गर्ने त्यस लगत्तै कांग्रेस एमाले लगायतलाई आह्वान गरेर यहि सरकारलाई राष्ट्रिय स्वरुप दिने प्रयत्न गर्नेछौं।" ... आएका विपक्षीलाई यहि मन्त्रिपरिषदमा आउन आग्रह गर्ने

राष्ट्रपतिद्वारा फेरि म्याद थप, दलहरुको विमति यथावत

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एमाले केन्द्रीय समिति आजबाट-सरकारको नेतृत्वबारे सोचिने
अब वार्ता होइन, आन्दोलनः विपक्षी कार्यदल

कार्यदलले मङ्सिर महिनाभित्रै प्रतिपक्षी दलमा सम्मिलित काँग्रेस, एमाले, राष्ट्रिय प्रजातन्त्र पार्टी, राष्ट्रिय जनशक्ति पार्टीलगायतको बैठक बसेर आन्दोलनको स्वरुप निर्धारण गर्नुपर्ने सुझावसमेत दिएको छ ।

कांग्रेस बैठकको निश्कर्ष-'प्रजातन्त्रसँग सत्ता साटिन्न'

Nepal's political deadlock will soon end: Prachanda
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Ruling alliance for cabinet expansion if no consensus by Wednesday

सी. के. लालसंग-05.12.12
UCPN (Maoist) now sets conditions, NC bitter

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Consensus Is Not Happening

The NC, Fair Polls And The Game Of Musical Chairs
Baburam's Options
Broadening The Ruling Alliance
Four Poles: One PM, Three DPMs

The Polarization Is A Good Thing
Mahantha Thakur For PM
A Non Political PM?
What Might The President Do?
The PM Resigning Would Be Weird
Good Move By Ram Baran
NC And UML At Fault
Ram Baran Yadav: Kasturi Mriga
The President, The Prime Minister
NC And UML Do Not Have Veto Power
Dahal's Capitulation Is Wrong

Baburam Bhattarai as the executive head of the country has to face the facts. Consensus is not happening. The sooner he realizes the better it is for the country. Now he has to forge a large coalition that includes the breakaway Maoists, Upendra Yadav's Front, Ashok Rai and the Congress breakaway Rai, and possibly other Left, Madhesi and Janajati parties to envision a seat sharing that covers about 85% of the country so as to win at least 70% of the seats in the next assembly so as to give Nepal genuine federalism. That is what this is all about.

You are looking at an arrangement whereby Baburam Bhattarai comes back as Prime Minister after the next election, Prachanda comes in as the directly elected President, Gachhedar perhaps is DPM again (or not), and Upendra Yadav, Ashok Rai, and Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal are all Chief Ministers of their respective states.

Right now the country is seeing massive polarization. And it is politically illiterate of Badal, Baidya, Yadav and Rai to not see that there are only two sides, and they need to pick one of them, and the choice is obvious.

The federalists need to act as one all the way to the elections to a new constituent assembly, and to a new constitution. After that if they so wish they might part ways. But even then I am not so sure. It might be best to stick together until every state has a state government, and local elections have already been held. After that I can see the coalition naturally breaking up.

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तमलोपाको जिल्ला अधिवेशन सम्पन्न
अन्तरिम संविधानलाई क्रियाशील बनाएर नयां निर्वाचनमा जानुर्पछ : मन्त्री त्रिपाठी
स्वायत्त मधेस प्रदेश मधेशीहरुको साझा चाहना : भण्डारी
हाम्रो पार्टीले मधेशको बारेमा स्पष्ट धारणा ल्याउँदैछ : रिजवान अन्सारी, उपाध्यक्ष-संघीय समाजवादी पार्टी, नेपाल
मधेशमा एउटै राजनीतिक शक्ति हुनुपर्छ : जितेन्द्र सोनल, सह–महामन्त्री - तराई–मधेश लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टी

Big guns to reach President at 9 am :Sheetal Niwas
Gachhadar foresees consensus by Nov end
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Terror in Tarai
Indian leader meeting top brass in Kathmandu
Politics for politics’ sake
UCPN (M) dangles NC mighty ministries
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The NC, Fair Polls And The Game Of Musical Chairs

The NC has been pushing three arguments as to why a NC person should be Prime Minister.

To say the NC alone can conduct fresh elections in the country is outright slander, especially when the current government is willing to give the Home Ministry to the NC.

The second argument is that it is the NC's turn. That is hogwash. Mahantha Thakur's party has never been in power at the top. Perhaps it is his turn.

The third argument is that the NC was promised the premiership of the election government. That is true, but that is only the partial truth. The other big chunk of that truth is that once the NC had agreed to settle on all issues related to the constitution and the country had managed to get a constitution then the NC would be allowed to lead the government that would hold parliamentary elections in the country. But we are not staring at parliamentary elections. We are staring at elections to a new constituent assembly.

This third is the weirdest of all arguments. It is like some guy went shopping. The guy promised the shopkeeper he would give him money if the shopkeeper gave him the bicycle. The shopkeeper promised to give him the bicycle if the guy gave him the money. The guy never gave money, but started arguing the shopkeeper promised him the bike and was now not giving it to him. That is what the NC is doing.

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Baburam's Options

Baburam can resign. It is a free will thing. He is a free human being. And he could exercise that option. But as a disciplined soldier of the Maoist party he might not take such an action unless he has his party's backing for it.

Baburam could reorganize his cabinet. He could reshuffle it. That is the prerogative of any Prime Minister.

Baburam could also expand his cabinet. He could add a few Deputy Prime Ministers. He could add a few ministers. This might be his best available option right now. And that might just be the step to break the gridlock.

The breakaway Maoists have to realize the current polarization in the country is between the federalist and the anti-federalist forces and they necessarily have to side with the federalists. Federalism has been a gift of the Madhesi Kranti, but the ground for it was prepared by the Maoist movement. It is not possible for Baidya and Badal to see common ground with the NC and the UML.

Ashok Rai and Upendra Yadav also belong in the federalist camp.

Baburam should reach out to these three individuals and expand his cabinet accordingly. That might be the right move for the current polarization in the country. I happen to think that polarization is a positive thing.

Panchayat was a no party system. The thinking was if you allow parties that will fragment the society. Similarly consensus is a regressive concept. Political polarization is a good thing. It leads to progress.

The Maoists were as opposed to the seven parties as they were to the king. But they realized an alliance with the parties was a must to topple the king.

Down the line Upendra Yadav, Ashok Rai and Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal might all compete with Baburam Bhattarai electorally, but for now they have to understand the ground reality and see they belong on the federalist side. They should see common cause.

Instead of harping on the self evident truth that Ram Baran can not dismiss him Baburam should go ahead and expand his cabinet and bring the federalist forces inside to further isolate the non federalists, namely the NC, the UML and the monarchists.

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Broadening The Ruling Alliance

Dahal is an option. Mahantha Thakur is an option. It does not have to be Baburam Bhattarai, although I don't see why not?

The UML is supporting the NC candidate. But that is not enough to move the ball in the NC's favor.

The only thing the parties agree on is they don't want a non political PM.

The president can not unilaterally take action. Which means Baburam Bhattarai can not be forced to resign. And he is only willing to resign if there is a consensus on a new name. But that consensus can not be a dictation by the NC. That consensus has to have Maoist participation, a simple fact that the NC does not seem to take into account.

The extreme inflexibility shown by the NC and the UML is as undemocratic as their stand against federalism even when two thirds of the constituent assembly had put down their signatures for it. To give in would be to accept defeat when defeat is highly unnecessary.

One unilateral action Baburam Bhattarai could take is induct Upendra Yadav as a Deputy PM and offer to make Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal a Deputy PM as well. I think such a step would reduce the NC, the UML and its supporting parties to a 20% strength or less.

If I were Baburam I would also induct Ashok Rai into the cabinet. That would be a blatant blow to the UML which is being quite unreasonable.

As a last resort the president has to pass the election related ordinances and let Baburam conduction elections in April 2013. I mean, why not? What will be another sound alternative?

If I were Baburam I would reach out to Upendra Yadav, Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal and Ashok Rai and get them to participate. That would put additional pressure on the president to pass on the election related ordinances.

रोकिएलान् राष्ट्रपति?

आफैंले काम चलाउ भनिसकेको सरकार बर्खास्त गर्ने संवैधानिक बाटो नरहेकोमा राष्ट्रपतिमा कुनै द्विविधा छैन।

‘मधेशी नेताबाट प्रधानमन्त्रीको सम्भावना छैन’
दलहरु गम्भीर छलफलमा जुटेनन् सहमति नभए सबै विफल हुने राष्ट्रपतिको चिन्ता

राष्ट्रपति रामवरण यादवले थपिएको सात दिनभित्र राजनीतिक दलहरुले राष्ट्रिय सहमतिको सरकार गठनबारे ठोस सहमति नजुटाए दलहरुसंगै आफु पनि विफल हुने चिन्ता व्यक्त गरेका छन्।

सहमतीय सरकारको नेतृत्वबारे दलहरुबीच विवाद

राष्ट्रपति रामवरण यादवले अहिलेकै सरकारलाई राष्ट्रिय सहमतीय सरकार बनाउन सकिने प्रतिक्रिया दिएको भोलिपल्ट सत्तापक्षीय र विपक्षी दलहरुबीच सहमतीय सरकारको नेतृत्व बारेको विवाद झनै चर्किएको छ। .... अहिलेकै सरकारमा सबैको सहमति भए सुनमा सुगन्ध हुने भन्ने राष्ट्रपतिको प्रतिक्रिया सार्वजनिक भएको भोलिपल्ट दलहरुबीचको विवाद बढेको देखियो।

सुशील कोइरालासंग-28.11.12
Bhattarai to lead national consensus govt: UCPN (Maoist)

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