To Talk Or Not To Talk To Giri

I am for talking. What do we have to lose?

A few days back I criticized Girija Koirala for wanting to talk to the regime. (Koirala's Request To The Regime To Postpone Elections) Now I think I was wrong, Girija was right. We got to talk.

Tulsi Giri Interview
Tulsi Giri Is Beyond Redemption
Response To The Panchayati Ghost Tulsi Giri

This guy Tulsi Giri is quite a character. There is not one major world power he has not criticized. He criticized India for inviting the Bhutan king to its Republic Day, and that was way back in February. He has taken the US and UK to task. There is another doctor-politician I know of who is known for his bluntness, Governor Howard Dean. Do they teach these people something at medical school? I wonder.

Some of the things Giri has said are outlandish, like his threat of jail time to the politicians. We threaten him with jail time right back, and then we still talk. Giri is not exactly a democrat.

What do I read into his words? He came out claiming the 12 point agreement between the Maoists and the democrats does not bother him. Only a few days later, he sounds like he does care. He is worried. Girija provided Giri with a slight opening, and he took it with gusto. That shows Giri is worried about the agreement.

But I am against pushing his nose in the dust. You help your opponent save face if you intend to do business.

I disapprove of the king but I also try to understand him. If we were to give him the benefit of doubt, what do we see? He did not invent Article 127. He overstretched it, true. If a near takeover of the country by an armed rebel group is not an emergency situation, what is? I am not justifying him, I am just trying to put myself into his shoes. And until the country gets another constitution, the 1990 constitution is the law of the land. The king has disfigured that constitution beyond recognition and repair, but that is a whole different topic.

My point is this. Either the seven party alliance should seek an overthrow of the monarchy like in France and Russia, or it should negotiate its way to a constituent assembly. Those are the only options I see.

My preference is a constituent assembly. Even if the monarchy is to be overthrown, I want it to be done through the ballot box. That decision is for the Nepali people to make. But if the seven party alliance were to opt for the France, Russia option, I will fully support it. They are the ones on the ground, I am not. I follow their lead. (The King Is Intent On Visiting France And Russia)

But decisions have to be made. The seven party alliance needs to be banging heads more. Tulsi Giri is right in his criticism. Seven parties are talking seven different ways. Leaders within the same party - the Nepali Congress - are not talking with one voice. That might be freedom of speech, but that is not unity of purpose.

Considering I don't see the seven party alliance anywhere near the France, Russia option, I am assuming we are still set on the constituent assembly idea. As long as we get there, does it matter how we get there? I think not.

And that is why we should be as flexible as possible.

We should not abandon the constituent assembly. As soon as we do that, we lose the Maoists, and we are back to square one. Personally I am for a constituent assembly with or without the Maoists.

Our commitment has to be to a constituent assembly. And that commitment has to be strong. Only then will we be flexible on every other issue.

First, clean the house. Bang heads and clear up heads. Giri is right. What do we want? Do we want to go back to before October 2002? Do we want to revive the House? What?

I think the last mile marker the seven party alliance has is the 12 point agreement. (10 Point Agreement To Succeed 12 Point Agreement, Prachanda Statement) I am not surprised Giri rejects that outright. Bijukchhe was also offended he was not consulted before it got signed. Giri was not part of the deal making, so he does not recognize the end product.

You make peace with enemies, not with friends. Giri is an enemy, that is why we need to talk to him.

We win if he talks reasonable. We win if he talks unreasonable: we expose him. But talks, by definition, will involve give and take. We can not show up at his door with a finished copy of an agreement and expect him to come around to it.

What could Giri ask for?

First, he will ask for clarity. Fair enough. Then he will say House revival is not an option. Then he will say, come take part in the February 8 polls. We say, no thanks.

Then he might say, both the Maoists and the seven party alliance are for House revival as long as that House takes the country to a constituent assembly. That is true. Then he might say, how about this? Forget the House revival and forget municipal polls. Instead let's hold elections to a new House, and let all the parties take part. Like now. Within a month or two. And then let that House deal with the Maoists.

I think that would be a valid compromise. The Maoists will also have to agree to it, because it goes along with the 12 point agreement. That House will give birth to an all party government. That government will hold peace talks with the Maoists, and head on towards a constituent assembly.

Am I for this idea? No. I am for the formation of an all party interim government through political decision. But considering the seven parties will not let go the House revival idea, I think this would be a valid compromise. We end up with a House, but there is no House revival. The king is out of the picture. Both the legislative and the executive come back to the political parties. The parties might even amend the constitution to bring the army under the parliament before holding talks with the Maoists.

I am not really proposing a roadmap here. What I am saying is once you engage in dialogue, all sorts of options open up.

Political dialogue is how you make political progress. Endless mass meetings will not do what political dialogue will. So go talk.

10:43 PM Update: I just talked to Madhav Nepal. I ran this idea with him. He disagreed. He said to hold elections to a House would be to lose the Maoists. Besides elections will be costly. If elections are to be held anyways, why not elections for a constituent assembly? Valid point.

Nepal sounded excited about all the massive rallies his party has been holding all over the country. He gave a long list of towns where they have been and were going to be.

I opened up a private e-channel of communication with him yesterday. It is direct, it is cheap. It works even when I can not reach him over the phone. It is efficient. It will basically be a series of memos. In private you open up more.

In The News

Government can consider parties’ proposal: VC Giri NepalNews ..... the government could consider the demand of political parties to postpone the municipal polls if the political parties come with a positive attitude...... first and foremost, the parties should make their stance clear and only then the government may agree to postpone the municipal polls...... political parties must be clear in their motive whether they want dialogue to postpone the municipal polls or postponement of municipal polls for dialogue ...... Girija Prasad Koirala called on the government to postpone the municipal elections so as to create an environment conducive for dialogue with the parties....... “However, the government can sentence the political leaders to jail if they try to disrupt the municipal polls. We can term them fanatics and send them to jail if they start talking too much” ...... had ruled out any consensus with the agitating seven-party alliance on the basis of the 12-point understanding ....... “The Feb 1 royal proclamation will not be withdrawn and the dissolved parliament will not be revived.” ...... Giri also said that the top leaders’ statements are inconsistent.....
Government can consider parties’ proposal: VC Giri Nepali Times, Nepal .....
Political Parties Won't Come to Power Now: Dr Giri NewsLine Nepal Giri, said Wednesday that political parties would never come to power. ..... Addressing a joint mass meeting of Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepaal Sadbhabana Party and Janamukti Party at Birtamod, Jhapa ...... “First and foremost, the parties should make their stance clear and only then the government may agree to postpone the municipal polls.” ..... Claiming that nobody can provide even a single evidence that there is no democracy in Nepal ...... “NC president Koirala sometimes demands reinstatement of parliament, at other times says the situation must remain as that prior to October 4, 2002 and now he demands postponement of polls to hold dialogue with the King. What do we make of all this?’ “Also, other leaders who are supposed to be agitating jointly, such as Madhav Kumar Nepal, say there won’t be dialogue with the King at any cost and NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel issues statements saying there would be no agreement with the King. These political parties are inconsistent,” Dr Giri said.
Govt can postpone polls if parties come for talks: Giri Kantipur Online the parties, as the latter “lack unity and stability in their words as promised.” .... “We can consider Girijababu’s statement,” said Giri, adding, “If he really means what he says, first talks should be held and then only can thoughts turn to whether or not to cancel the elections.” ..... “Who has helped put together the mass-meet of the parties, who have reached the so-called the 12-point understanding with the terrorists? The government is seriously looking into it.” .....
12 Held for Waving Black Flags at Giri Himalayan Times, Nepal
MR Josse: Straight shooting by Dr Giri Scoop.co.nz (press release), New Zealand
Dr. Tulsi Giri, Nepal’s royal deputy, organized a news ... United We Blog, Nepal

Why The Maoists Should Not Go Back To Violence

The Maoists announced a three month long ceasefire, and then extended it by a month. That extension expires in a few short days. They have said they will not extend it this time around. What is in store? What could happen?

I sincerely hope they do not go back to their old ways. I hope they are not planning some kind of a large scale, surprise attack on one of the RNA installations. Because if they do that, we will be back to square one. All political progress made since the ceasefire announcement could go down the drain. The Maoist-Democrat alliance will come under a tremendous strain. The international community will want the seven party alliance to choose between them and the Maoists, and the Maoists are not going to be a choice. The regime will claim victory. They will happily go back to war. The bipolarization in the making will evaporate off.

Why would the Maoists want that?

The best option would have been if the king had reciprocated to their ceasefire. But the king did not. That shows the king is not at all interested in the idea of a constituent assembly. I don't agree with him on that one, but I can see why. A constituent assembly could turn the country into a republic. Even if the monarchy is retained, it will be truly a ceremonial one. Why would this self-professed activist king want any of those two options? Put yourself in his shoes.

Instead if the Maoists were to reciprocate the king's unreasonableness, they would be doing the king a huge favor. It would be unreasonable to go to war.

So I say to Prachanda and Baburam, don't do it. Don't go back to war. Instead do this: Isolating The Monarchy.

What options do the Maoists have?

One obvious option is to extend the ceasefire. They have done it for seven months in a row in the past. They could add a few more to these four months. They still get to keep their armed cadres in an "active defense" mode.

Another would be to let the ceasefire expire, but still keep the armed cadres in an "active defense" mode. Technically the ceasefire is over, but in practical terms not much has changed.

But the best moves the Maoists could make are not military at all.

The Maoists have increased their army size from three to seven battalions after the ceasefire announcement. Does this prove the royalists were right along, that the only reason the Maoists declared the ceasefire was to give themselves a breather? No. I think they waited for a week and then realized they might have to engage in yet another round of combat, so they prepared.

Prachanda has said this regime will fall before the Nepali new year. He is the first person in the Maoist-Democrat alliance to have come up with a deadline. I like that.

The Maoists have also warned the regime that if they were to engage in a military crackdown on the peaceful demonstrators in the capital, their army will march into the valley from both east and west, kind of like Fidel Castro marching into Havana. This is not unlike the diaspora warning the regime of global legal action should there be a military crackdown. (Project Nepal Democracy)

The Maoists have also announced programs of peaceful mobilization of the people. (Maoists Should Go Beyond Ceasefire To Peaceful Mobilization)

My recommendations to the Maoists are based on what they themselves have said.

1. Do not go back to violence.
   
2. Engage in a major propaganda war with your threat against any possible military crackdown. That will encourage the people to come out into the streets.
   
3. Engage in peaceful mobilizations of your cadres and the people as much as you can.
   
4. Launch a propaganda offensive against the RNA foot soldiers. Lenin did that to great effect. Infiltrate the army ranks with your propaganda. Let them see the current regime is not in their interests. This is much stealth work, not unlike planning a major military campaign. Channel your martial urges into this.
   
5. Isolate the king. Build on the work done so far. My proposal is in the diagram above.
   
6. Do not make any attempts to kill those who might decide to contest the February 8 polls. Instead visit as many homes as possible to urge people to stay back home on that day. If you kill candidates, you invite a fissure between yourself and the seven party alliance due to the global power arithmetic. The acts will be too spectacular to get ignored.
   
7. A day or week long nationwide strike to disrupt the February 8 polls is okay. Whatever floats your boat.
   
8. Revise your 12 point agreement. The seven parties should drop the House revival idea. The Maoists should agree to integrate the two armies before the constituent assembly elections as long as the interim prime minister is the Commander In Chief of the army. (10 Point Agreement To Succeed 12 Point Agreement)

In The News

OHCHR receives assurance from Maoist leadership NepalNews
NHRC probe team visits Nagarkot
Four judges appointed at Supreme Court
RPP in Crisis
Their Majesties to visit eastern region from January 1
UML General Secy seeks UN intervention for peace
Nepal yet to pay over USD 26 mn to India for military supplies Outlook (subscription), India
Nepal army starts 'biggest' Maoist hunt NewKerala.com
84 Killed in Nepal Even during Maoist Truce, NHRC Trying to Broker ... NewsLine Nepal, Nepal
3 killed in Rolpa clashKantipur Online
Maoist commander killed: RNA PeaceJournalism.com
King to Take 3-Week-Long Tour to Eastern Nepal NewsLine Nepal, Nepal
UN intervention necessary in Nepal: Leaders Webindia123, India
Seven parties set to disrupt municipal polls Kathmandu Post, Nepal
NHRC to meet king to talk ceasefire Kathmandu Post, Nepal
Govt considering parties’ proposal Kathmandu Post, Nepal
Political leaders dare govt on Thapa's threats Kathmandu Post, Nepal

Koirala's Request To The Regime To Postpone Elections

What did Girija Koirala mean by that? I am bewildered.

It can be understood to have been a peace and reconciliation overture, soudly rebuffed by a government minister. It is unrealistic to think this regime is interested in any such thing.

But then what do you mean by postponing elections? If it were to be held on March 8 instead of February 8, would you participate? I hope that is not what Girija meant.

February 8 will make bipolarization possible. And we have to move to that end. Since the regime will not take it back, we have to cash it to our best interests. A sound failure on February 8 on their behalf could end up the fatal blow to the regime that it deserves.

The parties perhaps do not have the resources to conduct a continuous movement as yet. And hence their sole focus for now to disrupt the February 8 polls has to be seen as a sound strategy.

The Past Three Weeks

These past three weeks I have talked to many individuals, in the US and in Nepal, some of which are Bimalendra Nidhi, Dinesh Tripathi, Amik Sherchan, Shambhu Thapa, and Sudha Sharma. Tripathi is in Baltimore and we stay in touch. He is the point person at this end for the legal action project. Nidhi has been busy preparing for his party's general convention in early January. Amik Sherchan is a firebrand, quick to lose his temper, energetic, passionate. Shambhu Thapa is promising. He and the Nepal Bar Association are the other end of the legal action project.

Mirror Site

I set up another mirror site for the five projects: Project Nepal Democracy. It is largely informational.

There have been many authors to the ideas collected at the site. And it is not like this document launched all things listed. Several of the projects were already being worked upon, some by groups who did not know of each other, and still do not interact, because they do not need to.

Take one example, the ezine Loktantra. It has been named in the document, but it has been the work of some folks in Delhi and they have been putting it out for months now. Loktantra got launched months before the diaspora in the US started talking in terms of these various projects.

My point being there is no central authority. As long as the work gets done, it does not really matter how, and by who.

But the information site is a pretty good picture of all the work that is being done by the diaspora.

Each project has several mini projects.

I personally think small groups of 3-4 people tackling many mini projects is the best way to move ahead, the most efficient way.

Clandestine Work

I have been for being open. But that is just me.

There are many donors who do not wish to disclose their identities. There are some projects where one donor does not know of another. Book keeping is to be kept only among the group because that is how the donors wish it. That is also one valid model.

I think each project, and each mini project is going to end up with its own little subculture. There is not going to be one standard way.

ANA Convention

I have been to only one of those so far, the one in DC in 2002. And I expect to attend the one in NYC during the summer of 2006. Hopefully the movement in Nepal will have succeeded by then, and we will be in a festive mood.

To me going to an ANA Convention is not that different from going clubbing. You buy the ticket, you go in, have fun, come out, and be gone. You don't really care to know who owns the club, who the manager is, and so on. You just want the water, you don't much care about the piping. Actually there were loud complaints after Dallas last year that the tickets are too pricey. And there is no open book keeping. I think that is a problem. The ANA needs to display the details at its site.

Madhesis are conspicuous by their absence. Instead you see throngs of Pahadis/Bahuns.

After Dallas last year Ratan Jha called me in exasperation: "ANTA has ended up with more Pahadi than Madhesi members!" People like Kiran Sitoula, Sanjaya Parajuli and Pramod Aryal became Life Members, looks like.

Nepal Democracy Forum

The official reason given to kick me out of the forum has been that I went public with this letter by Jeet Joshee: NAC Goes Proactive. The heck with Jeet Joshee.

That is just so lame. So NAC was going to send a quiet letter to Jimmy Carter and then expect him to go off on a Nepal tour? Was that the idea? The use of that letter is not that Jimmy Carter might respond to it, he will not, that is just the political reality, but that the NAC wrote it and sent it, and the letter can have a major propaganda value for the democracy movement. But if you are not going to take it public, why did you write it in the first place?

On Carter's map, NAC is a no name organization, no offense.

How ridiculous is that? I personally do not know Jeet Joshee. I had never heard of him until recently. But if he does not realize the propaganda value of the letter he wrote, I doubt his political acumen.

I think my ouster is more a got-you-on-a-technicality mindset of a handful of self-important people whose primary contribution to the movement is to send each other links to Kantipur articles.

Mero Sansar, Blogger Nepal

Umesh Shrestha and Krishna Prasad Dhungana, the two Kathmandu based pioneer bloggers have been doing amazing work. I am so impressed with the progress they have made.

They are very close to turning their blogs into self supporting businesses. That has been the unreported story. I can not disclose all the details, but it has been so exciting working with them.

These dudes are so happening.

Political Consciousness And Literacy

My recent interactions with my fellow Madhesis have led me to feel you could have been born a Madhesi, but the Madhesi political consciousness is like acquiring literacy. It is a conscious effort, there is work, effort involved.

Understanding the concept of free speech for many Pahadis/Bahuns is the same way. The literacy has not been achieved yet.

Madhesi, Desi

On the American scene, it is about the Desi identity. That is the brown identity.

I am a Desi.

Madhesi.

Mero Sansar Video Clips

Robert Kaplan Is An American Cowboy

Op-Ed Piece Sent To The New York Times

To: The Editor, Wall Street Journal.

My attention has been drawn to the recent Robert Kaplan article on Nepal in your newspaper. I am one of the leading Nepali democracy activists in the US, based out of New York City. I have received emails from friends asking me to write a rebuttal to the article.

Robert Kaplan's pride and joy is that he is not gun shy. I wrote the title of my blog entry on him - Robert Kaplan Is An American Cowboy - before I googled him. My suspicions have only been confirmed. This is a cowboy through and through. His prescription for the Nepali army is the same as for the US army. He emphasizes a light, agile force. I would not argue with that. It makes military sense. But he takes it one step further and thinks it has universal applications. He is so excited about the military idea that he has been cultivating for years that he totally misses the political picture in Nepal.

Expert after expert has come out saying there is no military solution to the civil war in Nepal, that there is only a political solution. That puts Kaplan in the wrong camp to start with.

The idea is to make possible a soft landing for the Maoists so that they end up one of several political parties in a multi-party Nepal. And I think peace and democracy will be hastened if the international opinion makers like Kaplan were to nudge the king towards a constituent assembly, the same idea for which America has spent $200 billion, 2100 American lives, and 30,000 Iraqi lives and counting. In Nepal the foreign powers can make the assembly possible simply by standing behind the idea. A respectful, partial integration of the Maoist army into the state army will have to precede any such elections. But before all that, the currrent regime has to fall, and an interim government has to take its place.

That is the roadmap we democrats are working towards. It is beneath someone of Kaplan's wide reputation to write so irresponsibly about Nepal. These are people who read books on other countries to get their ideas about Nepal. There are plenty of books and articles on Nepal available. He needs to be reading them instead.

Unless he was just passing through, as he has been wont to do through many a country.

Paramendra Bhagat
Brooklyn, NY

Who Lost Nepal? By ROBERT D. KAPLAN December 20, 2005; Page A14
Wall Street Journal

Nepal, sandwiched between the two rising economic and demographic behemoths of the age — China and India — could be the first country since the fall of the Berlin Wall where communists emerge triumphant. If the Bush administration does not act decisively, that’s what might happen. The administration should not take solace in the flurry of negotiations between the Maoist insurgents (who control most of the hinterlands) and the country’s political parties in Kathmandu, which could undermine the last vestige of legitimate royal authority while further strengthening the insurgents.

By canceling Special Forces training missions to the besieged Royal Nepalese Army, and with the possibility of lethal cuts of American aid to the local military, the administration, along with Washington, has bought into popular abstractions about how to best implant democracy while ignoring the facts on the ground.

Nepal is fast becoming a replay of both Cambodia in the mid-1970s and El Salvador a decade later. In Cambodia, the monstrous Khmer Rouge were threatening the capital of Phnom Penh, home to a pathetically undemocratic yet legitimate regime to which a Democratic Congress had cut off aid — a result of the Watergate-inflicted weakness of the Nixon administration. In El Salvador, murderous right-wing forces that nevertheless represented a legitimate state were pitted against murderous left-wing ones that represented the geopolitical ambitions of the Soviet Union and Cuba. Though the media emphasized the atrocities of the right wing, the Reagan administration had little choice but to work with them. Eventually, the right wing in El Salvador, with the help of a small number of Army Special Forces trainers, won the day. And in the years that followed the Salvadoran state and military were reformed.

Winning the day did not mean outright success on the battlefield. It meant bloodying the left’s nose enough to give the state an edge in negotiations. Ronald Reagan, a Wilsonian, was also a realist. President Bush now needs to take Reagan’s El Salvador model to heart in Nepal.

* * *

In Nepal, there is an undemocratic monarch (King Gyanendra Bikram Shah) who has canceled the political process, even as his military is guilty of human-rights violations including the undocumented disappearances of civilians. It is also true that the political parties the king has disenfranchised are comprised of feudal politicians, unable to rise above caste loyalties and whose version of democracy was responsible for bringing the country to its knees in the 1990s, thus igniting the Maoist revolt in the first place.

As for the Royal Nepalese Army, or RNA, it is a typical Third World military with all which that entails, from poor discipline to poor record-keeping regarding detainees. The exemplary human-rights record that Washington demands will not be reached in Nepal until the society itself evolves. Meanwhile, the crimes that the RNA is alleged to have committed bear no comparison to those of the Maoists, such as “mutilation atrocities” in which a victim’s bones are broken before his limbs are cut off. Just as there are no good guys in this conflict, nor is there moral parity.

Unrestricted aid to the Royal Nepalese Army is neither necessary nor warranted. I am suggesting a resumption of Special Forces training to one RNA Ranger battalion in particular, as part of a broad-based political strategy that highlights a dialogue between the king and the country’s politicians. Special Forces are a tool, not an answer. The Nepalese Ranger battalion in question is one I know, having spent time at its training base with its officers and enlistees during a recent visit to Nepal.

The Nepalese officers are fluent English-speakers, graduates of Sandhurst, and of either the U.S. Army Ranger course at Fort Benning, Ga., or the Special Forces “Q” Course at Fort Bragg, N.C. These officers speak intelligently and specifically about human rights, and they bear striking resemblance to foreign students at our top liberal-arts universities. A sub-group of the global elite, they would likely make a better impression in Washington than many Nepalese politicians.

Nepalese Rangers fight and train at the squad and team levels, unlike most other third world military units that I’ve observed, which are only confident fighting in mass, at the company level or higher. Counterinsurgency, it should be said, is about small-unit penetration.

Because the political process in Kathmandu will take many months to at least ameliorate, this Ranger battalion is the best tangible mechanism available to keep pressure on the Maoists in the field while that happens. There is no military solution in Nepal — but concomitantly, there can be no political solution without military pressure. This is an aspect of the problem often missed by journalists and human-rights workers, whose relationship with each other is quite close, even as their one with military experts in Kathmandu is less so. In any case, the autocracy of the king and the periodic abuses of the RNA will be tossed aside by the media if the hammer-and-sickle ever does go up in Nepal, as the same media starts chanting, “Who Lost Nepal?”

Don’t discount the possibility. The Maoists have taken a cluster of ideological ideals and launched them into a full-fledged militaristic cult. I saw a similar process unfold in the 1980s in Eritrea, where the guerrilla movement went on to topple the Ethiopian government. Like the Eritreans, the Maoists are media-savvy, whereas the Royal Nepalese Army is not. (It took me weeks of lobbying with Nepalese officials to gain access to their elite Ranger battalion.) The political children of the 1990s in Nepal, who saw free-market economics and popular democracy breed greater social disparities, the Maoists embody a rebuke to globalization that cannot be divorced from social currents running throughout South Asia.

To wit: Nearby Bangladesh, which used to feature a relative easygoing coexistence between Hinduism and a mild Islam, is witnessing a starker and more assertive Wahabbist strain. A poor country that can’t say “no” to money, with an unregulated coastline, Bangladesh has become the perfect set-up for al Qaeda. As for India, because it is so diverse we have tended to see it in stereotypes: the locus of spiritualism during the hippie era and the locus of software genius during an era of global journalists who move between slick corporate headquarters and luxury hotels. But India, as usual, is seething with social unrest, renewed regional identities and impressively resilient leftist movements.

The Bush administration wants India to step up to the plate in Nepal. But India is itself conflicted about the Nepalese situation. Even if the Indian government wants to weaken the Maoists, left-wing parties within the Byzantine political firmament of New Delhi sympathize with them, and have the means of assistance across a porous border. While India does not want to see throngs of refugees from a Maoist Nepal stampede into its already unstable state of Bihar, India also enjoys the fact of a weak, divided client regime next door.

Alas, there is also China, which, just as it did in Uzbekistan, is waiting for human-rights issues to tie the Bush administration’s hands to the point where Beijing can walk in and provide aid without regard to the host country’s moral improvement. China has promised another $1 million in military aid to a Nepalese regime that the U.S. refuses to help, even as Nepal’s defense minister has met with his counterpart in Beijing.

A few Special Forces training teams and some basic weapons — as a tool to everything else we’re doing in the political sphere — is all that should be needed. The earlier in a crisis we intervene, the smaller the military footprint required. That’s how to prevent future Iraqs and Afghanistans.

Mr. Kaplan is a correspondent for the Atlantic Monthly and author of “Imperial Grunts” (Random House, 2005).

Kaplan Biography
The Globalist | Biography of Robert Kaplan
The Media and Medievalism by Robert D. Kaplan - Policy Review, No. 128
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General Theory of Religion
Amazon.com: Listmania! - View List "The Complete Robert D. Kaplan"
Robert D. Kaplan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia a prominent but controversial American journalist currently an editor for the Atlantic Monthly. His writings have also been featured in The Washington Post, The New York Times, The New Republic, The National Interest, and The Wall Street Journal ...... his more controversial essays about the nature of U.S. power have spurred debate in academia, the media, and the highest levels of government ..... He lived in Israel for several years and joined the Israeli army...... when the Yugoslav Wars broke out, President Bill Clinton was seen with Kaplan's book tucked under his arm, and White House insiders and aides said the book convinced the President against intervention in Bosnia .... his popularity skyrocketed shortly thereafter along with demand for his controversial reporting..... Kaplan had not set out to influence U.S. foreign policy, but his work began to find a wide readership in high levels of government..... New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman called Kaplan one of the "most widely read" authors defining the post-Cold War, along with Francis Fukuyama, Harvard Professor Samuel Huntington, and Yale Professor Paul Kennedy. ...... In his book Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos, published shortly after 9/11, Kaplan offered the opinion that political and business leaders should discard Christian/Jewish morality in public decision-making in favor of a pagan morality focused on the morality of the result rather than the morality of the means...... Kaplan predicts that the age of mass infantry warfare is probably over and has said that the conflict in Iraq caught the U.S. Army in between being a "dinosaur" and a "light and lethal force of the future."........ Kaplan sees large parts of the world where the US military is operating as "injun country" which must be civilized by the same methods used to subdue the American Frontier in the 1800s. At one point he observes a Filipino and says that: "His smiling, naïve eyes cried out for what we in the West call colonialism."....... He has lectured at military war colleges, the FBI, the National Security Agency, the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff, major universities, the CIA, and business forums, and has appeared on PBS, NPR, C-Span, and Fox News..... "Kaplan, over his career, appears to have become someone who is too fond of war. "It could be said," he has written, "that occasional small wars and occupations are good for us." He's expanded on this topic: those "occasional wars" are "evidence of humanity." This is because "peaceful times are also superficial times."" -- David Lipsky ...... and his argument--that our future is being shaped far away 'at the ends of the earth' ..... Here is a serious writer in 2005 admiring the Indian wars, which in their brutality brought about the end of an entire American civilization." -- David Rieff in The New Republic ...... "Because he specializes in exploring the San Andreas faults of the modern geopolitical system, his books have had more influence on politicians and policy makers than most travel writing." -- Adam Garfinkle .......
Robert D. Kaplan "A Post-Saddam Scenario," The Atlantic Monthly ...
Financial Sense Newshour's Ask The Expert: Robert D. Kaplan

Isolating The Monarchy

International Community

It is already solidly behind. But we need to keep up the pressure. There are not many examples on world stage where the major powers like India, Europe and the US are so solidly behind a people's aspirations for democracy. And that is a total reflection of the vibrant pro-democracy crowd in Nepal. Absent that the global community could have done little but look the other way for the most part.

Time will not cure this pressure for the king. There has to be a concrete change in ground realities.

It is not true China is supporting the king. China is at best staying neutral. China is too engaged with India, Europe and America to pick fights with them over Nepal.

The diaspora in the US needs to turn up the heat a little more. There has to be greater lobbying. The good work has to be made better.

There is a possible scenario such that the seven party alliance might have to unilaterally declare the formation of an interim government at the height of the movement. At that point we will need all the international friends we have got to recognize that government.

But this part of the homework is mostly done.

Seven Party Alliance, Maoists, Civic Society, The Masses

There has to be a strong alliance of these four forces. The first three need to come together for the benefit of the four. The 12 point agreement between the Maoists and the seven party alliance has to be revised. The seven parties need to let go the House revival stand. And the Maoists need to be willing to let go of their army before the country enters into a constituent assembly. Two of the four projects of the Nepali diaspora in the US are to do with the civic society, and two are to do with the seven party alliance. They are designed to bring them together and cement their bonds.

Ultimately the show of force is going to be when the people show up out in the streets in large numbers. I can feel the groundswell.

The king's reluctance to seek genuine dialogue leaves room only for a decisive confrontation.

Bureaucracy

They are already with us. They can not join the movement en masse during the early stages. But they will come out in large numbers when it is time to hit the decisive blow. They have been harassed and penalized like the rest of the population. We need to stay in touch with all our contacts inside the bureaucracy. We need to make the regime feel it has no way to keep secrets.

Judiciary

It has not been as out and out as it could be, but the Nepal Bar Association is solidly behind the movement. Shambhu Thapa has been providing great leadership. The Supreme Court itself has prevented excesses by the regime in several ways.

Police

The idea is not to confront the police. We should seek to befriend them and win them over. Being realistic, it might not be possible to avoid confrontations altogether, but we should seek to avoid them as much as possible. The idea is not to fight the police. We are not trying to dismantle the state machinery. We are trying to take it over.

The Army

Should there be a military crackdown, a lot of the army honchos are going to end up behind bars. It is illegal to follow illegal orders. Both giving and following orders will get you into trouble.

On the other hand, try and win them over. The foot soldiers are all janata ko chhoro. They might be susceptible to concerted propaganda.

Stay in touch with all your contacts in the army as well. A lot of up and coming army officers are big on the professional army idea. They are not there for the king. Many of them are in touch with select elements of the diaspora.

Protect The Demonstrators

Document all assaults. This movement will be different from the one in 1990. Legal action is to be initiated this time to book the guilty. The right to peacefully protest is a fundamental human right. No regime or constitution can take it away.

Senator Patrick Leahy

Mr. President, this is the third time in the past six months that I have spoken in this chamber about Nepal. I do so because this land of mostly impoverished tea and rice farmers who toil between India and China on precipitous hillsides in the shadows of the Himalayas, is experiencing a political crisis that may plunge the country into chaos.

As many predicted, King Gyanendra’s seizure of absolute power on February 1st and suppression of civil liberties has damaged Nepal’s foreign relations, triggered clashes between pro-democracy demonstrators and the police, and strengthened the Maoist insurgency.

The Maoists, whose use of extortion and brutality against poor villagers has spread throughout the country, announced a unilateral ceasefire on September 3rd which they recently extended for an additional month. Although flawed, the ceasefire was the impetus for a loose alliance with Nepal’s weak political parties after the King refused to negotiate with them and sought instead to consolidate his own grip on power.

Last month, the Maoists and the parties endorsed a vaguely worded but important 12 point understanding that could be the basis for a national dialogue to restore democracy and end the conflict. That, however, would require some reciprocal confidence building measures by the army, which has so far rejected the Maoist ceasefire as a ploy and continues to see itself as the defender of an anachronistic, corrupt and autocratic monarchy.

Although the army has won praise for its role in international peacekeeping missions, its reputation has been badly tarnished because of its abusive and ineffective campaign against the Maoists. It has engaged in arbitrary arrests, torture and extrajudicial killings of ordinary citizens, which has alienated many of the same people who have been victims of the Maoists.

On December 10th, when hundreds of Nepali citizens took to the streets to protest the King’s repressive actions, the police used force to break up the rally and arrested several dozen people. The press reported another 120 arrests and dozens injured in demonstrations on December 17th. More protests are likely, and it may be only a matter of time before Katmandu is in the full throes of a pitched battle between pro-democracy demonstrators and the King’s security forces.

This is the disheartening situation in which Nepal finds itself today. The immediate challenge for the United States is how to help promote a political dialogue which includes the broadest possible participation from Nepali society to restore and strengthen democracy and end the conflict.

The Maoist ceasefire, while welcome, was a tactical move to lure the political parties into an alliance and further isolate the palace. There is no way to predict with confidence if the Maoists would participate in a political process in good faith, or simply use it as a ruse to gain new recruits and weapons. A resumption of attacks against civilians would be condemned and resisted by the international community. The Maoists should know that they cannot defeat the government by force, and as long as they extort money and property and abduct children they will be seen as enemies of the Nepali people.

Similarly, military experts have concluded that Nepal’s undisciplined army cannot defeat a determined insurgency that attacks civilians and army posts and then disappears into the mountains.

There are also concerns about Nepal’s political parties, who do not have a record of putting the interests of the nation above their own self interest. But the political parties, for all their flaws, are the real representatives of the Nepali people. They urgently need to reform, but there is no substitute for them.

Despite these difficulties and uncertainties, it is clear that the King has failed to provide the leadership to build bridges with the country’s democratic forces and develop a workable plan. It is also clear that efforts by the international community, including the United States, to appeal to the King to start such a process, have failed. The Bush Administration should apply whatever pressure it can, including denying U.S. visas to Nepali officials and their families.

With few options and no guarantees, Nepal’s hour of reckoning is approaching. There is a growing possibility that the King’s obstinacy and unpopularity will trigger massive civil unrest, shootings and arrests of many more civilians by soldiers and police, Nepal's further isolation, and perhaps the end of the monarchy itself.

Only the army has the ability to convince the King to abandon his imperial ambitions, but time is running out. The army’s chief of staff, General Pyar Jung Thapa, was privileged to receive training at the Army War College and he has participated in other U.S. military training programs. He has led Nepali troops in UN peacekeeping missions. He knows, or he should have learned, that the function of a modern, professional military is to protect the rights and security of the people, not the privileges of a dictator who has squandered the moral authority of his office. It is not only in the interests of Nepal, but in the army’s long term self interest, to show real leadership at this critical time.

The United States should do everything possible to encourage the army to announce its own ceasefire, to accept international observers as the Maoists have said they would do, and to support a broadly inclusive political dialogue with or without the participation of the palace.

Such a process, to be meaningful, must lead to free and fair elections. The municipal elections announced by King Gyanendra for early next year, without any consultation with the political parties, are no solution. An attempt to apply a veneer of legitimacy to an otherwise undemocratic process will only prolong and exacerbate this crisis.

Many of the Maoist’s grievances mirror those of the majority of Nepal’s people who for centuries have suffered from discrimination, poverty, and abuse by one corrupt government after another. But Nepal’s problems, which are at the root of the conflict, can only be solved through a transparent, democratic process. The Maoists have opened the door a crack for that to begin. The army should reciprocate. The international community should lend its support.

Senator Patrick Leahy, Democrat, Vermont
Senator Leahy To US Congress On Nepal

This Reads Like An Executive, Feudal Monarchy

(UNOFFICIAL TRANSLATION)
21- Point Programme Approved by the Cabinet Meeting Chaired by HM the King (February 2, 2005)

1. Legal provisions will be put in place to (i) "nationalize" illicit wealth appropriated through abuse of authority, smuggling, tax evasion, procurement irregularities or commission and, (ii) curb corruption at its roots. Those found guilty will be severely punished. As the first step in this direction, a "fully empowered" Royal Commission will be constituted within 15 days. Additionally, the Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) will be transformed into an extremely capable, impartial and fully operational body by providing it with adequate authority and resources.
2. Proper mechanisms will be put in place to improve the effectiveness and transparency in the manner in which HMG/N has been providing essential services to common Nepali Citizen within 15 days. Appropriate monitoring and evaluation frameworks will also be installed. Those found to be schmoozing at work and engaging in any form of patronage/rent seeking (nepotism, cronyism etc.) will be severely punished.
3. Land Bank will be set up to "distribute" land (in a manner dictated by the law) to squatters, landless farmers and freed Kamaiyas (bonded labors).
4. National income growth through agriculture is essential for poverty reduction. Hence a "planned programme" aiming to bolster modern and scientific agricultural technology (that "suits" the country), large and small irrigation projects and depending on geographical possibilities, horticultural farms, special case crops, livestocks will be implemented within a month.
5. Private sector will be encouraged to play active roles in the protection and development of cottage industries as well as in the development and extension of manufacturing industries and hydroelectricity. Additionally, potential hydroelectricity projects will be prioritized and implemented through the mobilization of internal and external resources.
6. HMG/N will prepare and implement a master-plan to tap into the tremendous growth potential in the tourism industry. The plan will seek to provide incentives and support to promote religious tourism, small and large hotels, resorts, tourist destinations and the overall industry. In addition, requisite human resources will be trained for the "tourist security police" force in order to promote "safe tourism".
7. Disabled, backward and "dalit" children enrolled in up to the secondary level in public schools will be provided with free textbooks and scholarships. Even private schools and universities will be required to designate a certain percentage of seats for the free education of disadvantaged groups, dalits, minorities and disabled students.
8. Appropriate curriculum "reform" will be undertaken to reorient education towards vocational needs of the market as well as to generate "nationalistic human resources". Textbooks and educational materials will be provided efficiently and at reasonable prices to students at all levels.
9. Students bearing legitimate identity cards will be entitled to subsidized fares in means of public transportation and subsidized fees in public hospitals.
10. In order to do away with the disparity between the rich and the poor in urban areas including the capital city, a ceiling will be imposed on real estate holdings. In addition, legal provisions to ensuring that new houses are made in full compliance with the earthquake-proof requirements and urban development plan of HMG/N will be expeditiously put in place.
11. In view of addressing the accommodation needs of an increasing population, declining land, limited extension possibility of drinking water, electricity, sanitation, telephone facilities, HMG/N, in partnership with local bodies and the private sector, will introduce "planned housing" (apartment system). This will put a check on encroachment of otherwise arable land.
12. In order to increase the pace of economic growth and to increase physical connectivity, an East-West electric railway system will be developed as a medium-long run strategy. Additionally, short cuts, tunnels, waterways and ropeways will also be developed and extended wherever possible.
13. Upholding the principles of decentralization, local bodies will be given maximum autonomy gradually (in a phase wise manner). Authority in the areas of political, fiscal, social, administrative and semi-legal fronts will be gradually devolved from the centre to the villages.
14. In order to address the rising problem of unemployment, employment opportunities will be sought both inside and outside the country. Required training and credit will be provided to increase access to foreign jobs.
15. Those affected by conflict and those (Maoists) that have (and desire to) surrender(ed) will be trained and prepared for employment at home and abroad.
16. Special river training programmes will be introduced in the Terai. This will bolster transport development, flood control and irrigation endeavors of HMG/N. Additionally, the land "saved" by river control will be used to resettle and develop squatters and landless farmers.
17. A "Karnali Development Programme" for the integrated development of the zone will be implemented without delay. Surkhet-Jumla road will be completed by February 2006 (within a year) and other road projects to connect other district headquaters of Karnali zone will be initiated. Special programmes will also be initiated to make local citizens "self-reliant" in the areas of agriculture, health and education.
18. Reform commitments made to improve governance (ADB-GRP), public sector management (ADB-PSM), and poverty reduction (WB-PRSC) will be completed on time. Special arrangements will be made to facilitate the implementation of projects and programmes being run by various bilateral and multilateral donors.
19. A "positive affirmation" policy will be implemented to increase the representation of women, janajaties and Dalits in the state machinery.
20. Policy reforms to develop the private sector will be initiated without delay. Various incentives and appropriate legal frameworks will be put in place to encourage the private sector to invest in physical infrastructure.
21. Development programs will be chosen and implemented by the people. To this end, special emphasis and preference will be placed on works that are implemented through local user groups (preference over outside contractors).

Maoists Should Go Beyond Ceasefire To Peaceful Mobilization

Maoists renew threat to disrupt municipal polls, unilateral ceasefire as good as ‘withdrawn’ NepalNews ..... the CPN (Maoist) will mobilise masses, organise mass meetings and coordinate their programmes of protess with that of the seven party opposition alliance.

Their three month long ceasefire was and is their most brilliant military move to date. I can't see another such example of a similar incident on the world stage or in world history. No armed group with such a large presence, geographically and politically, over such a large portion of a national territory has ever made such a move, not that I know of. The Maoists have already made history.

They also moved from a communist republic to a democratic republic. I am not aware of such an ideological U turn anywhere in world history either.

Nepal has seen much violence this past decade, especially the past few years after King Gyanendra decided to go down the path of royal adventurism. More than 12,000 deaths, and over 23,000 suicides: those are the numbers. The royal army is responsible for about 75% of both.

The Maoists have been accused of senseless violence. And I for one have never approved of their violent ways. But if they are a rebel outfit that has acted inhuman and irrespponsible, the royal army is supposed to be the state. They can not act inhuman and irresponsible, but they have.

The royal army and the militarism it symbolizes have been blamed for one Nagarkot incident of 11 deaths. I think it should be held responsible for (12,000 + 23,000)/11 * 75% = 2,386 Nagarkots.

One option would be to put both the royal army and the Maoist army under the microcope and subject them to a country tribunal. For that the Democrats would have to militarily take over the country and bring both to justice through use of force. This option does not go with the ground realities.

Recently Kul Chandra Gautam suggested another option which is pretty much standard. He said forgiveness comes second. First there has to be some book keeping. A Truth and Reconciliation Commission has to be set up that will allow people who have lost much to the war to come forth and get their stories documented. But that is after peace and democracy.

I think a general amensty is the price the country has to be willing to pay for permanent peace. So the total emphasis has to be to help the Maoists become yet another political party within a multi-party framework.

But the king is stuck in third gear. He has no intention of reciprocating the ceasefire. If he had acted reasonable and reciprocated the ceasefire, we would have had the luxury to think he seeks reconciliation.

Instead he is hellbent on proving his points.

1. The Maoists can be militarily crushed.
   
2. The 1990 constitution is the final constitution Nepal will get.
3. His use of Article 127 can not be questioned. All he has done have been valid.
   
4. Citizens' rights are gifts from the king. When he takes them away, the citizenry should not act surprised. When he gives them back, the people should be thankful.
   

The emerging Maoist-Democrat alliance has been the outcome of the Maoist ceasefire. That is a huge achievement.

If the Maoists are truly republicans, they should not be surprised the king did not reciprocate the ceasefire. Kings are not supposed to be reasonable and democratic.

Instead the Maoists should continue with their ceasefire, and take further steps to consolidate their peaceful, democratic base, and engage the seven party alliance in further trust building. The 12 point agreement needs much polishing still. (10 Point Agreement To Succeed 12 Point Agreement) The idea should be to use the announced February 8 polls to engineer a total bipolarization in the country. The seven party alliance, the Maoists, and the CMDP (Citizens Movement for Democracy and Peace) have to come together in a solid way.

I think the Maoists have the Sinn Fein option. Keep your military wing intact for now. And have a separate political wing. Do not break the ceasefire, but engage in a major peaceful mobilization of the masses through the peaceful, political wing.

Breaking the ceasefire will take all positive developments back to square one. But a major peaceful mobilization will build upon the continued ceasefire.

To expect the king to take the lead would not be republican thinking. So his not reciprocating the ceasefire should not be held against the country and its population.

The monarchy and the Nepali Congress are on downward slopes for their own reasons. The monarchy is not willing to get out of the way even to a ceremonial form. The Nepali Congress is playing foul games with its sister organization the Nepal Students Union. A NSU that elects Gagan Thapa and is led by him would be somewhere at the forefront of this democracy movement and would be one piece of good news for an otherwise downward moving party. Gagan would be good for the NSU, the movement and for the Nepali Congress. But the NC leaders do not seem to realize this.

The king is the same way. He does not feel the groundswell. He does not feel the noose tightening around him. He wants all or nothing. Monarchs don't cut deals, I guess. The king's regime seems to be on autopilot. I think Tulsi Giri should speak publicly more often. That would really help the democracy movement. Because otherwise the democrats do not seem to realize this regime does not intend to understand democracy.

The Maoists need to come around to this:

2. The seven parties and the Maoists are committed to a constituent assembly elections to which will be held by an interim government functioning under an interim constitution that will make the interim prime minister the Commander In Chief of the army. Before the Maoists are invited to join the interim government, the two armies in the country are to be integrated through external mediation. If the integration not be total, foreign aid is to be sought to integrate the rest of the Maoist armed cadres into the economy. It is hoped that the integrated army will be downsized by the government that will come into power after a new parliament takes shape. The seven parties agree that the 1990 constitution is dead, and so is the 1999 House that can not exist outside the 1990 constitution. As to how to get to the interim government, a decisive movement is to be waged across the country. That might result in the king coming around to the idea of an interim government, in which case the question of monarchy will still be an issue in the constituent assembly. On the other hand, if the king be relentlessly uncompromising, the movement ends the monarchy before it forms the interim government, in which case the question of monarchy will not be an issue in the constituent assembly. It has been agreed that People’s power is the only alternative to meet the goals. This has been suggested as the interim constitution: Proposed Constitution.

And they should contiue with the ceasefire, and engage in some major peaceful mobilizations.

In The News

Maoists kill two civilians; abduct 400 NepalNews
Maoists pledge cooperation with int’l agencies
Nepali version of Linux ‘NepaLinux’ launched
Maoists renew threat to disrupt municipal polls, unilateral ceasefire as good as ‘withdrawn’
RPP dissidents call for early general convention
Nepal Maoists declare all-out war on elections Times of India, India
Nepal parties vow to thwart municipal elections Reuters AlertNet
“NEPAL’S DOWNWARD SPIRAL”: Senator Patrick Leahy talked ...United We Blog
Maoists call seven-day shutdown to halt Nepal polls Webindia123
Nepal Maoists declare all-out war on King's polls Hindustan Times, India
Nepal parties vow to thwart municipal elections Reuters
Nepal Maoists heal rift with UN NewKerala.com, India
UN welcomes Nepali guerrilla's adherence to BOG Xinhua
12-point agenda Kathmandu Post
Joint Strategy required to counter Maoist threat: Patil NewKerala.com
NWPP to separate from the seven party alliance PeaceJournalism.com, Nepal
NC, UML leaders discuss further protests Kantipur
UN hails Maoists' recognition of Basic Operating Guidelines
Maoists kill 2 civilians; abduct 400: RNA
OHCHR for impartial investigation into Nagarkot shootout
NC-D leaders catch up with Maoist leaders
Maoists declare programmes to disrupt municipal polls
Giri's remarks draw flak; parties to obstruct polls at any cost
RPP rebel faction issues ultimatum for special convention

Major Revisions

Major Revisions To The Proposed Constitution

I made some major revisions two days back. Funny how people do not make use of the comments section at this blog. Instead they need personal attention. They have to meet you in person, or get on the phone with you to give feedback. Like it was Sanjaya Parajuli, Anil Shahi, Deepak Khadka and me with Gagan Thapa driving Gagan off to the airport. And that is when Sanjaya went on this tangent about the need for direct elections for Prime Minister. Recently it has been Diwaskar Adhikari in Texas harassing on the phone on the same topic, and many others in between. I have been working with Diwaskar on the video blogging project. But he has been spending more time on this topic. He has also offered some valuable insight on some other topics to do with the constitution.

And three days back we had our largest Sunday get together so far, and there was this major discussion on what a constituent assembly was, how it would come about, and so forth. For me the highlight was the social justice theme. In attendance were Binay and Tara Shah, Sarahana Shrestha, Ritesh Chaudhary, Anil Shahi and myself. We decided to meet once a month now on. Once a week was too much, and it was getting cold, and the seven party alliance does not seem to have the goal of bringing this regime down by February.

Sarahana was totally steering the talk. She had brought along her laptop, a fancy Apple one on that. She took copious notes. From that talk I added this to the Proposed Constitution:

The Pratinidhi Sabha will have reserved seats for the four groups, Dalit, Madhesi, Janajati and Mahila, 10%, 20%, 10%, and 25% with some overlaps. So the half of the seats for women will cut across that of these four groups as well. For example, of the 10% seats for Dalits, 25% of them will have to be women. And the 10% for Dalits will be half in the Terai, but that is not to cut into the Madhesi reserved seats. 10, 20, 15 and 25 are half the supposed shares of the populations of these groups, to be revised each census. The reservation for a group is discontinued once its share in the Pratinidhi Sabha hits 80% of its share in the national population. When identifying the seats for the Dalit, Madhesi and Janajati, the Election Commission will seek constituencies where the groups have their largest share of populations. No three contiguous seats may be reserved seats.

I think this is a major addition. Democracy as we know it does not automatically lead to social justice. America and India are good examples of that. Look at the blacks in America, the Dalits in India, and the women everywhere. Look at the recent spectacular riots in France. (French Society: No Easy Solutions, Sick Sarkozy, Riots In France) Democracies that have traditionally only recognized only the individual identity of individuals and not their collective identities have ended up recognizing the collective identity of any one group alone. It is not like the collective identity got negated or anything.

My problem is as to how to make this scientific, and possibly of universal use. One, you recognize the collective identities, but you also make room for change, especially positive change. That is what the provision for constitutional amendments is for. And the reservations come up with the automatic dissolution provision. Or the Dalit identity itself could go away. If all Hindus were to inter marry across the castes, or if all Dalits were to convert to Buddhism en masse, the Dalit identity might merge, or take a whole new meaning, although the history will always be there.

What is a collective identity? One measure is marriage patterns, I think. If at least 80% of the people in that group marry among themselves, I think that is a collective identity. What do you think? Another is to ask people. If I say I am a Madhesi, I am one.

Nepal Democracy Forum

I don't miss it. The key people I used to interact with there, I do so now better and much more productively on the phone. Now I have much more time for the projects. I am making a more productive use of my time. I have been meeting more people offline. I have a newfound interest in the ANTA. A few days back I helped launch the Baltimore-DC chapter. I was on the phone with Dinesh Tripathy who is taking the lead on the Legal Action project. He asked me if I knew Madhesis in his area. He wanted to get to know and hang out. I told him with that comment he had just made himself the President of the Baltimore-DC chapter of the ANTA. Immediately I conferenced in Guneshwar Shah who is in Virigina. He found himself the Vice President.

A lot of Madhesis are excited that I locked horns with the Nepal Democracy Forum. That has been one clear, positive fallout of the episode. The temperature has been raised a little.

Internet Access Down

For the past four days I have had only sporadic access. I don't know what went wrong. But now I am back. In a way I was lost. On the other hand I cleaned the bathroom and made my roommates happy. They had been doing all the cleaning forever, these poor Estonians. I also feel more rested. Otherwise I never have a day off. Don't get me wrong. I do take time off, randomly so. But it is good to have a chunk of 24 hours off.

Talking To Girija Koirala

It was such a good feeling. I have had many people write to me and call me about that.

Girija is like this huge presence. Like him or dislike him, he is there. For me it is not a like, dislike thing. I want to do business with him.

Boycotting The February 8 Polls

Personally I think it would make more sense to try and bring the regime down by February. But it is a tall task.

So how do you boycott polls? You can not organize to gherao polling booths. The police will come after you. More importantly, those who might choose to vote will have a right to. You can not obstruct their freedom to move around. It is not like the police is going to go into homes and force people to come out to vote. People have a right to show up and vote, and they have a right to stay back home and boycott the polls. So basically it is a political battle of opinion making.

I am with the seven party alliance. If their immediate goal is to organize a boycott of polls, I am with them. They are the legitimate leaders of this movement.

Getting people to stay home and not show up at the polling booths might be easier than getting them to come out into the streets in large numbers, perhaps.

Someone At Google Visited This Blog

20 December

20:55

Google Inc., Mountain View, United States

Who is that! Hello Sergei. Hello Larry.

The King Has Invented Something New

Is this monarchism? Militarism? Musharrafism? It is each, but it is also something new. In monarchism there are no political parties. In militarism things are several steps worse, and Aan Sang Su Kyi is in jail. In Musharrafism, Benazir and Nawaj are in exile. Looks like our guy has introduced something new. The virus has mutated.

In The News

Govt okays RNA’s proposal to buy two MI-17 choppers NepalNews
Students, police clash at Trichandra Campus
Giri’s remark an attempt to prolong autocratic rule: Leaders
Election symbols of only nationally recognized parties secure: EC
Maoist atrocities still ongoing: RNA
Government returns equipment of Kantipur FM
Former PM Deuba keeps himself busy in the custody
“US Prez’s letter not going to work”: Koirala
Govt not to hold talks with the Maoists: Dr Giri
India concerned about Chinese arms supply to Nepal: Mukherjee
Students organise sit-in against NSU reshuffle
ANNISU-R leader produced before SC
Melamchi project under review: ADB
Students urge to repeal NSU ad-hoc committee
Home Minister Thapa warns parties
Bhutan king to step down after three years
NC reconstitutes NSU central committee
King grants audience to Moriarty
Dozens `arrested’ in Chitwan, situation returns to normalcy
UML Gen Secy urges King to accept Constituent Assembly
Thapa did not commit suicide: HURON
Bhattarai urges King to return power to people
Media Ordinance constitutional: Government
2008 will be a significant moment in Bhutan's history, says India NewKerala.com
Democracy gets royal sanction Hindustan Times, India
King's decision to give up rule shocks Bhutan Times of India, India
Bhutan looks at controlled democracy Reuters.uk, UK