Thinking Through This Jolt To The Transition

Who Is To Blame?

The primary blame goes to Girija. He is the Prime Minister. He is the one who has to take ultimate responsibility. The best thing to do would have been to find middle ground. He should have told the Maoists the republic issue will be settled after the elections, but that he will agree to hold a completely PR election to the assembly. That, by the way, has also been the key demand of the Madhesi and the Janajati groups.

Curiously, that continues to be the only way to move forward. Unless the Nepali Congress agrees to hold completely PR election to the constituent assembly, that election might never take place. So why delay?

Can And Should The Interim Parliament Be Dissolved?

Only the interim parliament itself or a revolution could dissolve the interim parliament. Will the interim parliament dissolve itself? That is highly unlikely. It is even harder to imagine a revolution whose express goal might be the dissolution of the interim parliament.

For all its inadequacies, the interim parliament does have its place. It has been a necessary counterbalance to the palace and the army as a power center. An interim cabinet on its own will not have that kind of weight to provide the necessary counterbalance.

But the interim parliament must be dissolved a month before the campaign for the elections to the constituent assembly begins. That is but standard procedure.

Can Girija Be Sacked?

There is this ridiculous provision in the interim constitution that says only a two third majority can sack the Prime Minister. I do think Girija should be sacked for his utter incompetence but the first step in that direction would be a constitutional amendment that says a simple majority can sack the Prime Minister.

Another way to get someone else for Prime Minister would be if the Nepali Congress itself put forth someone else. How likely is that? Not very likely right now.

Why Can't The UML And The Maoists See Eye To Eye?

For the same reason that Hridayesh Tripathy and Rajendra Mahto can not see eye to eye. For the same reason that Upendra Yadav and Kishor Kumar Bishwas can not see eye to eye. The powerless have a tendency to not team up. The powerless have a tendency to engage in infighting.

Both the UML and the Maoists know their primary opponent in terms of class struggle is the Nepali Congress. But they are reluctant to take the few steps on their parts that will make it possible for the two to team up.

Between them the UML and the Maoists have enough votes in the interim parliament to shake things up.

Right now it is imperative that the UML gangs up with the Maoists on the issue of a fully PR election. The three big parties could cut a three way deal.

1. The Nepali Congress gets to continue to keep the prime ministerial berth.
   
2. In turn, it agrees to hold a completely PR election to the constituent assembly.
3. In turn, the Maoists agree to hold a referendum on the republic question.
   

This way each big party gets something.

What Could A Possible Election Schedule Look Like?

October 2008: Depose Girija, put Madhav Nepal as Nepal's new eight party Prime Minister. Speaker position goes to Congress, to Chitralekha Yadav.

November 2008: Respectful dialogue with all armed Madhesi groups, Jwala, Goit and the rest of them. Release all their imprisoned cadres, take back all cases filed against them, put all their soldiers into cantonments, and invite them to participate in a fully PR election.

February 2008: Deadline for new parties to register.

April 2008: Referendum on the monarchy. Country becomes republic. Ram Raja Prasad Singh, first president of Nepal for being the original republican.

May 2008: Dissolve the interim parliament.

June 2008: Fully PR election to a constituent assembly, 300 strong. Every third name on a party's list must be female. Other than that there are no rules.


पुर्ण समानुपाितक िनर्वाचन अौर एक मधेश एक प्रदेशका नारा पर्याप्त है
डा देवेन्द्र राज पाण्डे: अन्तिरम प्रधान मन्त्री?
Nepal Must Get A New Prime Minister
Pradip Nepal: Pahadi Tiger
The Symbolism Of Girija Giving Mahto's Ministry To Kans Sitaula
ICG: Nepal's Fragile Peace Process
New CMP, New PM, Fully PR Election, Register More Parties, Elections In April
न्यु यर्कका पहिरयाहरू
November 22: Elections Must Happen
The Animals Of The Kapilvastu Riots
Armed Revolution To Street Agitation To Parliamentary Arithmetic
Koirala Has Only 85 Out of 330
Middle Ground: PR Election Now, Republic Later
Completely Proportional Election: Meeting Point With The Maoists
Not UML-Maoist Unification Or Unity, But A One Point Agreement On PR Election
Baburam Bhattarai Is Right About UML-Maoist Unity
एक मात्र िमलनिवन्दु: पुर्ण समानुपाितक िनर्वाचन
I Agree With Prachanda On Republic And Proportional Election


In The News

Nepal, India lose billions after election postponement Times of India, India the government wasted NRS 70 crore alone on printing election material, like ballot papers, the code of conduct and posters. ..... Generous election assistance had been pouring in from major donors, like India, US and EU. Besides assistance in the form of vehicles and voting machines, India has been flowing in its Election Commission officials for advice and recently, organised an elaborate seminar on constituent assembly.
Is Nepal's democracy in danger? BBC News Many analysts are doubting if the polls will be held at all. ..... The postponement of the polls should be viewed against the wider Maoist strategy. .... In subsequent months, the Maoists became part of the interim parliament and the government. ..... They also went about gaining as much influence as possible in commerce, the media and other areas of public life in the capital. .... So having established themselves in Kathmandu, they have one final objective left - to capture power. ..... Most analysts agree that the Maoists have little chance of doing this through competitive politics. They have lost much of their influence in the countryside, and are unpopular in the cities. ...... They have also shown an ability to outwit their opponents in a way that erodes the authority of much of the state. ..... Now they have reached a point where they seem able to put a break on a national objective like holding elections, something that virtually the entire country had agreed on. ..... This, many say, has severely weakened the public's confidence in its legitimate institutions. ...... Many people have begun to talk about Nepal entering an era of either ultra-rightist (military or military-backed) or ultra-leftist (Maoist) dictatorship. ....... They are not ruling out bloodshed between the army and the Maoists, who have concentrated a large number of their members in Kathmandu. ....... The Maoists have now hinted that they are ready to compromise on the timing of the abolition of the monarchy. ..... But they look far less likely to compromise on the proportional representation issue. ...... Whatever is decided - and other options are up for discussion - the result could well need amendments to the constitution and relevant electoral laws. ...... From all this mess, it is King Gyanendra who is gaining. ...... the wider held view is that a final showdown between the army and the Maoists in Kathmandu is more likely than ever. ....... If such a situation arises, nobody knows who will prevail. ..... retired Gen Ashok Mehta, believes that Delhi would be prepared to give military help to the government in Kathmandu rather than see the Maoists seizing power by force.
Curfew imposed in southeast Nepal after clashes International Herald Tribune, France
Serial blasts in southern Nepal People's Daily Online, China
Govt approves report to nationalise Nepal king's properties Press Trust of India, India
Nepalese nationalize monarch's property. United Press International
Eastern Nepal limps back to normalcy Kantipur Online, Nepal
Bandh Suspended for Three Days in Eastern Nepal Himalayan Times

डा देवेन्द्र राज पाण्डे: अन्तिरम प्रधान मन्त्री?

अन्तिरम संसद भंग गर्नु पर्ने बेला अाएको छ

दुइ ितहाइ बहुमतले मात्र प्रधान मन्त्री हटाउन पाउने अचम्मको प्रावधान एकदम गलत छ। मधेशीक्रान्ित जन्माएको अजीब अन्तिरम संिवधान।

अाठ पार्टीले यस िकिसमको रोडम्याप मान्नुपर्यो र सरकारको बागडोर नागिरक समाजलाई हस्तान्तरण गर्नुपर्यो। ६ मिहनाकालािग।

Possible Election Schedule

October 2008: Dissolve interim parliament. Form an interim election government under the leadership of the civil society leader Dr. Devendra Raj Pandey. He will pull together a cabinet that is fairly representative of the country's ethnic and gender diversity from the non-political sector, 15-20 strong.

November 2008: Respectful dialogue with all armed Madhesi groups, Jwala, Goit and the rest of them. Release all their imprisoned cadres, take back all cases filed against them, put all their soldiers into cantonments, and invite them to participate in a fully PR election.

February 2008: Deadline for new parties to register.

April 2008: Fully PR election to a constituent assembly, 300 strong. Every third name on a party's list must be female. Other than that there are no rules. First session of the assembly decides fate of the monarchy. Majority coalition forms government.

Event with Dr. Devendra Raj Pandey, NYC (Video 1, Video 2,Video 3)





In The News

Congress CWC discusses party’s role in special House session NepalNews most of the CWC members who spoke at the meeting were against the Maoist demand to announce republic from the parliament ..... most of the central committee members wanted Home Minister Krishna Situala, who is an influential leader of the NC, to quit his post on moral grounds as he has failed to maintain law and order.
Kishunji urges all to rise above party interests
UML says govt’s leadership has proved a failure suspension of polls, deteriorating security situation, and lack of coordination in the running the government have proved the government leadership a failure.
Govt makes further effort to nationalise royal properties

Maoists suggest referendum on monarchy Kantipur Returning seized property,making whereabouts of people disappeared by the Maoists, allowing undisturbed political campaigning by other parties, shunning coercive means during contract awarding process, are among the demands raised by NC leaders.
PM, Prachanda discuss consensus ‘beyond republic, proportional system’ The Maoist supremo also dismissed the allegations that his party was shying away from the CA elections due to dwindling popular support. ..... Prachanda also claimed that the special House session due to start on October 11 would declare a republic and proportional electoral system to defuse the political deadlock. ..... the Maoists would join the government only if a new political agreement were reached. He added that a new leadership and a new government were possible through a new agreement.
Referendum is the best way out: UML
1 protester dies in Jhapa police action, 37 arrested
Fresh curfew in Biratnagar
Curfew extended in Jhapa, 33 arrested
Banda hits normal life in eastern Nepal
UNMIN completes PLA verification The UNMIN finished the second stage of verification of the Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) cantoned at their seventh and the last division camp in Kailali district. ...... Nearly 550 PLA personnel are under the age of 18, a division source said. ....... Altogether 85 persons including the UNMIN representatives were involved in the verification process.
सङ्कटतिर सहयात्रा संविधानसभा निर्वाचनको अनिश्चितताले सातदलीय समीकरण सङ्कटतिर नयाँदिल्लीले अन्तरमि राष्ट्रपतिको व्यवस् थादेखि माओवादीलाई ३० सीट उपलब्ध गराइदिनुपर्ने भनी दिएको सुझावबारे अनौपचारकि कुराकानी भएका थिए । तर, गृहमन्त्री कृष्ण सिटौला, काङ्ग्रेस नेता शेखर कोइराला र अमरेश सिंहको 'ट्रोइका' ले यो प्रस् ताव प्रधानमन्त्री कोइरालासमक्ष राख्नेबित्तिकै उनले ठाडै अस्वीकार गरििदए । ........ समानुपातिक निर्वाचन प्रणाली भने कुनै पनि हालतमा नहुने अडान प्रधानमन्त्री कोइरालाको थियो । यसपछाडि उनका दुई तर्क थिए ः पूर्ण समानुपातिक निर्वाचन प्रणालीमा जाँदा व्यक्तिगत स्वतन्त्रता हनन हुन्छ र दोस्रो मिश्रति निर्वाचन प्रणाली अन्तर्गत निर्वाचन कार्यक्रम घोषणा भइसकेकाले अब त्यता जान सकिँदैन । ....... "सरकारले निर्वाचनसम्बन्धी कार्यक्रमहरू स्थगित गरेको छ भने आयोगले रद्द गरेको छ ।" ....... माओवादीहरू सङ्कट सिर्जना गरेर त्यसैभित्र आफ्नो भूमिका खोज्न चाहन्छन् । ........ यता नेपाली काङ्ग्रेसमा पनि समय गुजार्ने अनि आर्थिक, सामाजिक र राजनीतिक परविर्तनलाई सीमित तहसम्म मात्रै आत्मसात् गर्ने देखिन्छ । एक हिसाबले काङ्ग्रेस र माओवादी दुवै पक्ष्ा यतिखेर सङ्क्रमणलाई लम्ब्याउन खोजिरहेको देखिन्छ । माओवादीले संसद्मा गणतन्त्रको सङ् कल्प प्रस्ताव दर्ता गर्न सक्छन्, जुन काङ्ग्रेस र एमालेका लागि आपत्तिको विषय नहुने भएकाले सजिलै पारति हुन पनि सक्छ । ........ यतिखेर दुई सय २९ सदस् यीय संसद्मा काङ्ग्रेसबाहेक अन्य सबै दलहरूको सदस् य सङ्ख्या जोड्दा पनि दुई तिहाइ पुग्दैन ....... माओवादी, एमालेलगायतका राजनीतिक दलहरूले चाहेर पनि सरकारको नेतृत्व परविर्तन हुने सम्भावना देखिँदैन किनभने प्रधानमन्त्रीउपरको अविश्वासको प्रस्ताव दुईतिहाइ बहुमतबाट निर्णय गर्नुपर्छ । ....... सत्ताको बागडोर काङ्ग्रेसकै अर्का नेता शेरबहादुर देउवाको हातमा आउनसक्छ । देउवा आफँै प्रधानमन्त्री बन्ने दाउमा लागेको र त्यसैका कारण पछिल्लो समय माओवादीप्रति उनको व्यवहार नरम बन्दै गएको भन्नेहरू पनि छन् । ......... संसद् बाट निकास निस्कने कुरामा आशावादी छैनन् ...... यहाँसम्म त परिस्थितिले डोर्‍याएर ल्याएको ... "कुनै राजनीतिक सोच र तर्कले काम गरेको छैन ।" ....... काङ्ग्रेस र माओवादी दुवै पार्टीका नेताहरूले संसद्मा आफ् नो अडान नछाड्ने सङ् केत दिइसकेकाले संसद् अधिवेशन सहज रूपले चल्ने देखिँदैन । ......... माओवादीहरू सडक सङ्घर्षमा जान सक्छन ..... फेर िहिंसाको पुनरावृत्ति हुनसक्छ ....... अराजकता बढ्न सक्छ । जातीय, क्षेत्रीय र साम्प्रदायिक शक्तिहरू हावी हुँदै गएर उनीहरूले समानान्तर सरकारको अभ्यास सुरु गर्न सक्छन् । अनि, यस्तो स्थितिमा राज्य झन् बढी कमजोर हुनेछ । ...... २०६४ जेठ .... असार ६ ...... मङ्सिर ..... माओवादीहरू आखिर संसद्बाट गणतन्त्रको सङ्कल्प प्रस्ताव पारति गर्न सहमत भए तर पूर्ण समानुपातिक निर्वाचन प्रणालीको अडान छाडेनन् । ......... कुनै समय आठ दलबीचको वार्ताका क्रममा एमालेद्वारा जनमतसङ् ग्रहबाट राजतन्त्रको फैसला गर्ने र संविधानसभाको निर्वाचनमा पूर्ण समानुपातिक प्रणाली अपनाउनुपर्ने प्रस्ताव अघि सारएिको थियो । सिङ्गो नागरकि समाज र आमजनताको चाहना हँुदाहँुदै त्यतिबेला यस प्रस्तावको पक्षमा एमालेबाहेक कुुनै दल उभिएनन् । ......... वाईसीएलका उद्दण्ड क्रियाकलाप, चन्दा आतङ्क, सञ्चारमाध्यम र प्रकाशनगृहहरूमाथिको हस्तक्षेपलगायतले निर्वाचनको वातावरण बन्न नदिने उनीहरूको असली नियत ........ निर्वाचनको मिति सार्न पुनः अन्तरमि संविधान संशोधन गर्नैपर्छ । ....... राजतन्त्रलाई साँच्चिकै बिदा गर्ने हो भने अब संविधानसभा सरे पनि जनमतसङ्ग्रहमा जानुको विकल्प छैन । ........ तथाकथित पूर्ण समानुपातिक प्रणालीका नाममा अहिले नागरकिको चुनाव लड्ने अधिकार खोस्ने प्रयास हुँदैछ, त्यो हुनु भएन । ....... कब्जा गरएिका घरजग्गा फिर्ता गर्न माओवादी सहमत भएको हो । उग्रपन्थीले मानेनन् अनि सरकारले फिर्ता गराउन सकेन । ........ दलभित्रका प्रतिगामीहरू सक्रिय हुनु अहिलेको समस्या उत्पत्तिको कारण त होइन तर समस्या बढाउन त्यसले सघाउ पुर्‍याएको छ । संसद्वादी दलहरू र माओवादीभित्र पनि दरबारयिा घूसपैठ छ । ......... सङ्क्रमणकालमा बलियो नेतृत्व चाहिन्छ । तर, गिरजिाप्रसाद निरीह नेता भए । उनमा सबैलाई आफ्नो नेतृत्वमा हिँडाउन सक्ने व्यक्तित्व भएको भए त समस्यै उत्पन्न हुन्नथ्यो । समस्या त बलियो नेता नहुनुमा छ । ........ अन्तरमि संसद्बाट माओवादी मात्र होइन, सबै बाहिरनिुपर्छ । संसद्को आयु आगामी मङ्सिर ६ गते सकिने होइन, गत जेठ मसान्तमै समाप्त भइसकेको हो । ....... राजतन्त्रले मुलुकलाई अप्ठ्यारो पार्‍यो, राजतन्त्र जानुपर्‍यो । अन्तरमि व्यवस्थापिका र त्यसले बनाएको सरकारले संविधानसभाको चुनाव समयमा गराउन सकेन, त्यो पनि जानुपर्छ । मिश्रति निर्वाचन प्रणाली र मङ्सिर ६ गते संविधानसभा चुनाव अन्तरमि संसद्ले गरेको निर्णय हो । त्यो लागू भएन भने त्यही व्यवस्थापिकाले फेर िअर्को दिन तोक्न मिल्दैन । ........ सरकारको नेतृत्व मात्र होइन, संयन्त्र नै फेरनिुपर्छ । सरकार गठन गर्ने आधार नै नयाँ बनाइनुपर्छ । अब सात पार्टीको सरकार नै हुनुहुँदैन । ........ अन्तरमि संविधानमै व्यापक हेरफेर गर्नुपर्छ । ........ अन्तरमि व्यवस्थापिकाको साटो नियन्त्रणका लागि सात दलको एउटा संयन्त्र बन्नसक्छ, अन्तरमि विधायक परष्िाद् । यसलाई कानुन बनाउने अधिकार हुनसक्छ । ....... राजालाई, अन्तरमि व्यवस्थापिकालाई र अहिलेको अन्तरमि सरकारलाई पनि बिदा गर्नुपर्छ । यो गर्ने काम सातै दलको हो । त्यो सहमतिको निर्णय हुनुपर्छ । ...... असोज १५ गते साँझ बालुवाटारमा आफ् ना केही सहकर्मीहरूसामु प्रधानमन्त्री गिरजिाप्रसाद कोइरालाले अप्रत्यासित टिप्पणी गरे, "पूरै घेरेर राखेका छन्, पहिला मलाई नै त थुन्ने होलान् ।" उनको सङ्केत 'कू' तर्फ थियो । ........ "उनले कुनै पनि बेला गडबढी गर्नसक्ने खतरा छ," प्रधानमन्त्रीले राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रतर्फ इङ्गित गर्दै भनेका थिए, "त्यसबाट बच्न पनि हाम्रो एकता टुट्न दिनु हुन्न ।" ........ सबभन्दा प्रभावशाली आन्तरकि राजनीतिक शक्ति र नेपालमा सबभन्दा प्रभाव राख्ने बाह्य शक्ति दुवैले अपेक्षाविपरीत गणतन्त्रको बाटो समातेपछि शाही सक्रियता बढ्न थालेको छ । .... राष्ट्रिय अखण्डता र सार्वभौमसत्ता खतरामा पर्नसक्ने बताउँदै राजतन्त्रलाई कुनै न कुनै रूपमा राख्नुपर्ने धार सेनामा हाबी छ । .......... "नेपालको सार्वभौमसत्ता र स्वतन्त्रतामाथि खतरा उत्पन्न भएको छ ।" उनले दुई दिनपछि फेर िदोहोर्‍याए, "अहिले राष्ट्रियता खतरामा छ तर म सार्वभौमसत्ता र स्वतन्त्रताको विषयमा कुनै पनि शक्तिसँग सम्झौता गर्दिनँ ।" ....... प्रधानमन्त्री कोइरालाको वक्तव्य द्विअर्थी थियो । गणतन्त्रवादीहरूले बुझे- राजतन्त्र गएमा पनि सार्वभौमिकता खतरामा पर्दैन । तर, सेनाका अधिकारीहरूलाई यस्तो भान पारयिो- सार्वभौमिकतामाथि खतरा आउने महसुस गरेर प्रधानमन्त्री कोइराला विदेशी शक्तिका इसारामा गणतन्त्र स्थापनार्थ सम्झौता गर्नेवाला छैनन् । तर, जर्नेलहरूले त्यस्तो ठान्दाठान्दै महासमिति बैठकमार्फत काङ्ग्रेसले गणतन्त्रका पक्षमा अन्तिम टुङ्गो लगायो । .......... प्रधानमन्त्रीले त्यसको जवाफ सार्वजनिक रूपमै दिए, "अब मेलमिलाप राजासँग होइन, जनतासँग हुन्छ ।" ...... राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रका निम्ति त्यो स्वीकार्य थिएन । ४५ मिनेटपछि नै उनी पनि सादा पोसाकका सैनिकहरूको कडा सुरक्षामाझ त्यहाँ पुगे । र, गणतन्त्रविरोधी नाराबाजीका बीच पूजाआजा गरेर दरबार फर्किए । त्यसअघि कुमारी रथयात्रा शुभारम्भ समारोहमा जाँदा प्रधानमन्त्री कोइरालालाई चाहिँ कालो झन्डा देखाएर विरोध जनाइएको थियो । .......... राजाका प्रमुख सचिव पशुपतिभक्त महर्जनलाई फोन गरी 'राजाले निहुँ खोज्नका निम्ति कुमारीको पूजा गर्न गएको' भन्दै आक्रोश पोखे । लगत्तै प्रधानसेनापति कटवाललाई पनि बिहान र साँझ गरी दुईपटक बोलाएर त्यहाँ सेनाले सुरक्षा दिएको सम्बन्धमा प्रस्टीकरण मागे । ......... ००७ पछिका सबभन्दा शक्तिशाली प्रधानमन्त्री बनेका छन् उनी । ...... "प्रधानमन्त्रीको भनाइको आशय राजालाई सुरक्षा दिने गार्ड हटाउने हो भन्ने स्पष्ट छ । तर, किङ्स होल्ड क्याभलरीका रसिल्ला, घोडा एवम् बग्गी फिर्ता गरेर सैनिक नेतृत्वले सरकार र जनताको आँखामा छारो हाल्न खोजेको छ ।" ........ नेपालमा सानो भूभागमा सबभन्दा धेरै फौज केन्दि्रत रहेको स्थान नै नारायणहिटी दरबार हो । तीन हजार सैनिक रहने गरी त्यहाँ राजदरबार सुरक्षा बाहिनी कार्यरत छ । ........ गोरखबहादुर गणको नेतृत्व लेफ् टिनेन्ट कर्णेल सञ्जय झा ....... सेनाका लागि आउने हरेक नयाँ हतियार सबभन्दा पहिले दरबारकै फौजले पाउने गरेको छ । त्यहाँका सबैजसो सैनिकले एम-१६ राइफल बोक्छन् ।..... ....... दरबारभित्रको सेनामा राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रकै आदेश चल्छ । ..... ०१७ सालको 'कू' मा राजा महेन्द्रले दरबारकै सेनालाई प्रयोग गरेपछि बीपी कोइरालाले दरबारलाई राजनीतिक रूपमा कमजोर पार्ने हो भने त्यहाँ रहेका पल्टनलाई हटाउनुपर्ने जेल जर्नल मा उल्लेख गरेका छन् । ......... मोहनशमशेरको सुरक्ष्ाामा खटिने बिजुली गारतलाई सिंहदरबारबाट नारायणहिटीमा सारयिो । त्यसयता नारायणहिटी दरबार र राजा विस्तारै शक्तिशाली बन्दै गएको रोचक वृत्तान्त बीपी कोइरालाको आत्मवृत्तान्त मा छ । ........ ०४६ सालमा पञ्चायत ढालिएपछि पनि दरबारबाट सेना हटाउनेतर्फ सोचिएन । ...... "राजनीतिक नेतृत्वले सेनालाई सरकारप्रति वफादार नबनाउँदा प्रजातन्त्रमाथि पटकपटक आक्रमण हुने गरेको छ ।" ........ कतिपय सैनिक जनरलहरू 'संविधानसभाको चुनावले राजतन्त्रको फैसला नगरुञ्जेल दरबारबाट सेना नहट् ने' बताउँछन् । सम्भवतः राजनीतिमा सैन्यशक्तिको महत्त्व सबभन्दा बढी राजाले बुझेका छन् । ....... कतिपय नेताहरूले संसद्बाटै गणतन्त्रको घोषणा गरेमा अन्यथा हुन्छ भनी डराउनुको एउटा मनोवैज्ञानिक कारण दरबारको सेना नै हो । .... नेकपा माओवादीभित्र प्रचण्ड र डा बाबुराम भट्टराईको राजनीतिक एवम् सङ्गठनात्मक हैसियत खस्िकएपछि त्यहाँभित्र आफ्नो इतिहासको समग्र समीक्षाको प्रयास सुरु भएको छ । १२ बुँदे समझदारीयता प्रचण्ड-बाबुरामको अगुवाइमा पार्टीले राजनीतिक रूपमा विसर्जनवादको र राष्ट्रिय रूपमा आत्मसमर्पणवादको दिशा समात्न खोजेको व्याख्या माओवादी पङ्क्तिभित्र सुनिन्छ । ........... तराईको विखण्डनकारी हिंसात्मक परविेश दलहरूको बैठकमा कहिल्यै छलफलको एजेन्डा नबन्नु ......... स्वतन्त्र भनिएको राष्ट्रमा कल्पनै गर्न नसकिने गरी पारति गरएिको नागरकिता ऐन ........ प्रचण्डलाई अहिलेको संस्थापन पक्ष्ा सुदृढ बन्दै गएमा बाबुरामको शिविरलाई चटक्कै छोड् न सक्ने तथा किरण-बादलको नेतृत्व कमजोर हुनासाथ सर्लक्कै बाबुरामको पक्ष्ामा उभिन सक्ने व्यक्तिका रूपमा बुझिन्छ । ....... मुठभेडको अवस्था उत्पन्न भए पनि माओवादीहरू पहिल्यैको मोडलको युद्धमा र्फकने र वार्ता तथा कूटनीतिको प्रयासलाई छोडिदिने सम्भावना छैन । तर, बल प्रयोगको दिशालाई पूरै छाडेर वार्ता तथा कूटनीतिको प्रयासबाट मात्र माओवादीहरू अघि बढ्छन् भन्ने ग्यारेन्टीचाहिँ छैन र यो सम्भावना कमजोर पनि छ ।

Parties mull referendum on monarchy NepalNews On Sunday, Maoist leaders suggested to Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala that referendum was the best alternative to take decision on monarchy. ...... hinted rejoining the government under new circumstances. ...... the central committee meeting of the CPN-UML on Sunday also concluded that referendum would be the best possible way to end the present political deadlock.
Dozens injured in clashes in Sunsari and Morang Five cadres of the split faction of Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) led by Kishor Biswas and three policemen were injured during the clash between police and the agitators at Duhabi area in Sunsari district on Sunday. ....... During the clashes, the demonstrators have vandalized at least 26 vehicles. ...... MJF leaders claimed the clash occurred after police intervened into their peaceful demonstrations. Security personnel have been deployed in large numbers at Duhabi and adjoining areas. Maoist dissidents reorganised A group of Maoist dissidents have announced the formation of a new party, CPN-Maoist (United Rebel Front) on Sunday. ...... "We will stage the second people's war and Jana Andolan III to secure people's rights and to overthrow the old regime." ........ The dissidents also demanded resignation of the interim government claiming that it is the people who would now take initiative to hold the constituent assembly election within the next one year.

Compulsions Of A Transition

Do I believe the Maoists want a one party communist dictatorship? No.

Do I believe the Maoists want to emerge as the majority party in the constituent assembly? Yes. Do I believe that will happen? No. It will be a hung assembly.

Do I believe the Maoists will emerge the largest party in a hung assembly? Maybe. I don't know. I don't know which will emerge the largest party. It might end up being that no party has more than 25% strength in the assembly. The Congress might not unify, and even a unified Congress at best can hope to emerge the largest party. That too I doubt because they are not taking the lead on any of the burning issues of the day: republic, federalism, land reform. The UML could do really well. The MJF could sweep the Madhesh.

Do I believe the Left Front will come to power through the constituent assembly? That is very possible. Between them, the UML and the Maoists might end up having the numbers.

A hung assembly is pretty much guaranteed. And it does not really matter as to which party will emerge the largest, since the second and the third largest parties will also be pretty big.

Is the Youth Communist League being demonized? That is possible. The Madhesi Movement got demonized big time because it challenged the status quo. The Maoists also challenge the status quo. And so it is possible the Maoists are also getting demonized to an extent.

But the excesses of the YCL are well documented. Those muscle power ways have to come to a complete halt. Otherwise the UML is not going to want to ally with the Maoists. And that alliance might be the best hope for legitimate land reform.

The YCL is in a transition mode. These were militia. Many were PLA. They have shifted from gun power to muscle power, and that too is sporadic. Mostly they are a political organization with a few flash points of roughening people up. They have to go one step further. They have to become a total, peaceful, political organization that does not carry out any of the functions of a state.

If there is going to emerge a Left Front in the assembly, the best hope for the Nepali Congress is to unify the two Congress factions and forge an alliance with the other non-Left parties like the Sadbhavana and the MJF. The primary base of the Congress has been in the Madhesh. It has been amazing to me as to why that party has not tried to take the lead on the Madhesi aspirations. Instead it has clamped down. And so, if you ask me at this point, I am saying the Left Front will secure a majority in the assembly. The Congress has been acting like a spent force.

The MJF could very well emerge the largest party of the future Madhesh state, kind of like one of those many regional parties in India. And I don't see the MJF and the Sadbhavana unifying. And that is okay.

The goal at hand is free, fair, fearless elections. But already foul play is underway. They put 48% of the constituencies in the Terai, but then proceeded to engage in some major gerrymandering. All Madhesi MPs of all parties suddenly find they might not even get elected. They have caused some major disfiguration to Hridayesh Tripathy's constituency.

And so the Madhesi Movement has to move ahead now with the demand for completely proportional elections to the constituent assembly.

The goal is to end up a federal republic of state funded parties, the number one democracy on the planet.

In The News

Eight parties should first decide on republic: Prachanda NepalNews informal deliberations on how to move ahead by abolishing monarchy are underway....... the Maoist leadership was trying to check the unruly activities of the YCL. He informed Situala that he had already issued a tough circular to the YCL ranks directing them not to engage in violent activities.
Professionals demand immediate announcement of polls date
Conflict causes loss of Rs 5 billion
YCL's activities flouting peace pact, says NHRC
Mahara not happy with violent activities in the name of YCL
Prachanda regrets Dang incident

YCL violence against party policy: Mahara Kantipur
YCL ransack farmers' cooperative in Bardiya
Without timely CA elections country could loose its way: PM Koirala The PM also held separate meetings with Bam Morcha Nepal’s CP Mainali and Nepal Sadbhawana Party (Anandidevi)’s Rajendra Mahato.
YCL kill elderly in Sankhwasabha
Petroleum crisis deepens
Petro prices not increasing any time soon: Minister Mahato
'CA polls essential to secure rights of marginalized groups'
द्वन्द्वमा पाँच अर्ब क्षति
रोस्ट्रम नघेर्न एमालेको हि्वप
कांग्रेसले हिंड्नै पर्ने बाटो सात सालदेखि आजसम्म नेपालको राजनीतिमा जुनसुकै भूमिकामा रहे पनि कांग्रेसले नेतृत्व गर्दै आएको छ । यस अवधि -२००७-६२)को अधिकांश समय र प्रयत्न हामीले नेपालको शाह राजतन्त्रलाई संवैधानिक बनाउन सकिन्छ भनेर खर्च गर्‍यौं । लोकतन्त्र र राजसंस्थालाई सँगै हिंडाउन कोसिस गर्‍यौं । कांग्रेसले यस निम्ति गरेका बारम्बार -२००७, २०१५, २०३६, २०४७ र २०५८ पछि)का सम्पूर्ण प्रयत्न निष्फल भए । आफैले पुनःस्थापित गरेको शाह राजवंशका चार राजाहरूसँग निरन्तर संघर्ष गर्नुपर्‍यो । आफ्ना यही ऐतिहासिक प्रयत्न र भूल समीक्षा गर्दै कांग्रेसको एघारौं महाधिवेशन -२०६२, काठमाडौं)ले पचपन्न वर्षदेखि आफ्नो विधानमा कायम रहँदै आएको संवैधानिक राजसंस्थासम्बन्धी आफ्नो प्रमुख नीतिगत उद्देश्यलाई हटाउने निष्कर्षमा पुगेको हो । ......... सिंविधानसभा निर्वाचनका लागि निम्नलिखित विषयसमेत स्पष्ट हुने गरी घोषणापत्र मसौदा तयार गर्न र विशेष महाधिवेशनमा प्रस्तुत गर्न मसौदा समिति बनाउने ः.......... गणराज्य -संघात्मक एवं लोकतान्त्रिक) नेपालको आधारभूत स्वरूप र ढाँचा ......... राष्ट्र प्रमुख र सरकार प्रमुखको निर्वाचन प्रक्रियासहित शासन पद्धतिको खाका ..... सहभागितामूलक समानुपातिक व्यवस्थापिकाका लागि निर्वाचन प्रणालीको स्वरूप.......न्यायालय, अन्य संवैधानिक निकाय, सेना र प्रहरीको पुनःसंरचनासम्बन्धी प्रमुख अवधारणा........राजनीतिक दललाई आन्तरिक लोकतन्त्रसहित पारदर्शी बनाउने ठोस प्रस्ताव र प्रतिबद्धता....... सिंविधानसभा निर्वाचन सम्पन्न नहुँदासम्म केन्द्रीय सदस्यहरूलाई निश्चित जिल्लाहरूको राजनीतिक जिम्मेवारीका साथ सोही क्षेत्रमा बस्ने गरी खटाउने....... मिाओवादीलाई बृहत् शान्ति संझौता र अन्य समझदारी पूर्णपालना गर्न र सरकारलाई समेत आफ्ना तर्फबाट भएका प्रतिबद्धता पूरा गर्न कार्यमूलक ढंगबाट जोड दिने ।...... मिाओवादीसमेत अन्तरिम सरकारमा सामेल भइसकेको परिस्थितिमा पार्टीहरूबीचको एकता र सहकार्यका आधार एवं कार्यविधिलाई नयाँ ढंगले व्यवस्थित गर्न कांग्रेसले अग्रसरता लिने

Indigenous organisations announce fresh agitation NepalNews The Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NFIN), Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities Students, Indigenous Nationalities Joint Struggle Committee, Nationalities Indigenous Nationalities Women Federation and Nepal Indigenous Nationalities Youth Association have joined hands to announce the programmes of agitation including nationwide Nepal bandh on June 1, 10 and 11. ...... Major demands of indigenous community include federal restructuring of the state based on ethnic lines equipped with right to self determination and proportional representation based election system, among others.
Bardiya administration acts tough with Maoists
PM stresses CA polls in his talks with small party leaders
No one's right will be established without CA: PM
Mahara not happy with violent activities in the name of YCL
JMCC meeting inconclusive
Prachanda regrets Dang incident
Bandhs, demonstrations make life harder in terai
“NC Will Contest Elections On The Basis Of Moderate Ideology Propounded By B.P. Koirala”
US Hard Stance On the Maoists
UML chief directs his MPs to allow House to run
Poudel meets with MJF chief Ram Chandra Poudel held a secret parley with Upendra Yadav ..... Poudel flew to Birgunj on Wednesday morning and held talks with Yadav in Sripur area of Birgunj