Democracy For Nepal: Venture capital

Showing posts with label Venture capital. Show all posts

Sunday, November 23, 2014

सगुन, अंजन, छेपाक, डिल्ली, विनोद, कृष्ण

मेरो अंजन र छेपाक संग गफ भइ राखेको थियो। त्यो भन्दा अगाडि फेब्रुअरी तिर डिल्ली सँग पनि गफ भएको हो। सगुन न्यु यर्क आए पछि केही कुरा छर्लङ्ग भए।

राउंड १ fundraising को गोल हो राउंड २ fundraising गर्ने ------ because if you can not do that, you are dead. मेरो सगुन सँग deal भइ सकेको छ। सगुनले rapidly growing user base चाहिं देखाउनु पर्ने, र त्यसको आधारमा मैले सगुन का लागि राउंड २ fundraising गर्न lead role खेल्ने। राउंड २ भनेको मिलियन डॉलर भन्दा बढ़ी हुन्छ।

मेरो आफ्नै tech startup को 15K fundraising भइ सकेको, 10K को pledge प्राप्त भइ सकेको, 25K हाल्ने एकै जना पाउन लागेको अवस्था छ। 50 K को गोल हो। त्यो पुरा भए पछि मेरो राउंड १ बन्द हुन्छ। अनि त्यस पछिका राउंड हरुमा आउने भनेको प्रोफेशनल इन्वेस्टर हरु मात्र हो।

सगुनले 350K fundraising गरेको छ, 150K थप fundraising गर्ने प्रयासमा छ।

मैले विनोद, डिल्ली, अंजन, छेपाक, कृष्ण सँग गफ गर्दा राउंड २ सम्म पुग्नलाई राउंड १ मा ३० देखि ५० K प्रयाप्त हुने जस्तो रोडमैप देखाएको थिएँ। सगुनको रोडमैप भन्दा १० गुणा सस्तो देखियो त मैले महिनौ अगाडि देखाएको रोडमैप। तर I have met with an utter refusal to move. विनोदले त 20K अझ खर्च गरिसकेको। तर गल्ती त्यहाँ के गर्यो, प्रोडक्ट बनाउँदा आफ्नो कुरा मात्र गर्यो, मेरो कुरा सुन्दै सुनेन। अब मैले भन्दै छु, अब 1K अझ खर्च गर्ने, यस पटक १००% मेरो कुरा सुन्ने, version २ बनाउने। उसको app ३०० डाउनलोड मा गएर अड्केको छ। चाहिएको ५०,००० डाउनलोड।

डिल्ली, अंजन, छेपाक, कृष्णले आईडिया चाहिं राम्रो राम्रो ल्याए तर if you refuse to move, you are an academic, not an entrepreneur.

NYPNY का संस्थापक नीतिन शर्मा ले पनि गजब आईडिया निकालेका हुन ------ इच्छुक सदस्यले 1K प्रति व्यक्ति झिक्ने भनेर --- न्यु यर्कमा ५० नेपाली मिलियनेयर पैदा गर्ने जुन कुरा छ, त्यो त म एक्लैले गर्दिन्छु भनेको। ५० जनाले 1K प्रति व्यक्ति एउटा LLC मा हाल्ने, अनि त्यो LLC ले मेरो कम्पनीको राउंड १ मा हाल्ने, अनि १० वर्ष पर्खिने। अनि फ़ुत्त फ़ुत्त ५० नेपाली मिलियनेयर पैदा हुनेछन्।

म चाहीं facts present गर्न सक्ने हो, but I guess I am not a चिप्लो salesman ------ People are refusing to move भनौं भने सगुन ले क्या मजा संग मसँग डील गर्यो।

Thursday, November 13, 2014

सगुन सँग सम्बन्ध

न्यु यर्कको नेपाली समुदायमा हालसाल व्यापक चर्चामा आएको नेपाली tech startup सगुन का दुई Cofounder सँग मेरो हिजो कुराकानी भयो। मैले औपचारिक रुपमा नै Advisor को रुपमा सगुनलाई सघाउने कुरा भयो। विशेष गरेर राउंड २ fundraising मा मैले मदत गर्ने कुरामा विशेष छलफल भयो।

The only thing I need is a rapidly growing user base भनेर मैले भनें।

Sunday, October 26, 2014

1K Per Nepali: Crunching Some Numbers

Last week at a Diwali Party a great idea was floated. Nepali professionals in NYC should put 1K each into a pool which would be in the form of a company. There would be a small Executive Committee that would invest in early stage Nepali origin high tech startups following pre-approved guidelines. The company would also invest in startups based in Nepal.

Let's say 100 Nepalis got together and put in 1K each. You can't invest in every tech startup that comes along just because they are Nepali origin. And not all startups in which Nepalis are involved are looking for money, especially small money like this fund might have. At that event there were two Nepalis who were already working for tech startups. But neither were Founders. And both startups were well funded in their own right.

So with this startup you are looking for Nepali Founders.

Money invested in the stock markets grows at an average annual rate of 10%. Money invested in the US Treasury bonds gives you 5% or less. But the first 100K invested in Google became a billion and a half in about eight years. That is tens of thousands of percentage points in growth. That is wild. Never say never but let's assume, statistically speaking, that a Nepali Founder coming up with the next Google is not very likely. Statistically speaking.

The top VC firm in NYC has a success rate of 66%. As in, one third of the companies it invests in tend to fail. The best ones give them a 10X return. As in, every dollar invested becomes 10 dollars. A 10X return is considered excellent in the VC industry. So Google by that standard is out of the ballpark.

Let's say 100K is raised. And it is invested in three startups that have Nepali Founders, two in NYC/USA and one in Kathmandu. Let's say one NYC startup starts at a million dollar valuation and ends up with a billion dollar valuation in five years. Let's say one NYC startup goes bust, and the investment is lost. The Kathmandu startup starts at a million dollar valuation and goes on to a 100 million dollar valuation in five years.

So, it was 35K, 35K and 30K. 35K went bust. And this is an excellent scenario.

35K fetched 3.5% in equity, there was an anti-dilution clause. And so 3.5% of a billion is 35 million dollars. 30K fetched 3% and 3% of 100 million is three million dollars. So the 100K fund became $38 million in five years. And this is an excellent scenario.

A dud scenario is, 100K was raised, it was invested in three startups, all three went bust. The consolation was it only cost each person 1K each. A 10X scenario would be the 100K became a million dollars. In the VC industry that is considered to be excellent. As in, 100K becoming 35 million dollars is pretty much a wild case scenario.

When the money comes in, each 1K person would have the option to cash out. What is 1% of 35 million? 350K? Or the people could say, I want to take out 300K, and leave 50K in there. 50K times 100 is 5,000K, that is five million. And the Executive Committee now has five million to play with.

Or the fund could expand. It might start with 100K, and it might bring in 400 more people, or a thousand people, and be a 500K fund or a million dollar fund to start with. It is possible to show your companies are doing well before you actually get to cash out.

So far as I know I am the only Nepali in the city who is both a tech startup founder and is actively looking for round one money. My ask is in the 35K range. And my projection is that my startup should be a billion dollar company in five years.

Another great candidate would be the Amazon/Flipkart/Alibaba for the Nepal market that would also do Bitcoin based money transfer for near zero rates.

So my take would be, raise 100K right away, like today, invest in my startup, and start looking for that Kathmandu team. And then start looking for more 1K people. Maybe you want to come into my round 2 as well, as one of several investors.

In my particular case, I would be happy to offer to the fund what I have offered to some of my friends who have come into my round one at 5K each. I will make it risk free for the fund. Should the venture fail, from the day of the failure, I will have 12 months to return this 35K to the fund, as if it were a personal loan. Should the venture succeed, I will get 5% of the growth this investment might see. So if this 35K becomes seven million dollars in five years, I get 5% of that seven million, namely 350K, and the fund gets the rest.

Friday, October 03, 2014

No Guarantees

(written for Vishwa Sandesh)

A tech startup is high risk behavior. If you had 100,000 dollars to invest, a financial advisor would tell you, put 10% of your money in the no risk zone. It might be money in a checking account, or a savings account. Put 10% of your money in high risk, high gain investments. This is money you could lose, but this is also money that could see wild growth. And then put 90% of your money somewhere in between. US Treasury bonds might give you a 5% annual return, but they are safe. Stocks might give you a 10% annual return, but they are volatile.

Investing in the first round of a successful startup could see your money grow 10,000%, but it is very hard to get in. Chances are you don’t personally know the founder of a tech startup who is just starting out. You simply don’t have that kind of social capital. And it is very hard to figure out if a tech startup is going to be successful or if it is going to go belly up.

And so I offered a hybrid situation to my high school friend Ravindra Sapkota a few months back. He is an Oxford University graduate running the top biotech company in Nepal. He raised half a million pounds out of college to launch his venture. It has had a few successful years in a row and I feel is in a prime position to raise its second round of funding.

Ravindra invested 5,000 dollars as soon as he found out I was launching a tech startup. A week later after sending the money we finally got to talking about what the idea is, what my plans were. He also later brought in one of his professors at 5,000. The professor is hoping to launch a biotech startup and is eager to raise some money for it in the New York market. I have also offered to help Ravindra raise round two money for his biotech startup in the New York market, the money capital of the world.

I made it risk free for them, as to Kundan Gurung who was one year senior to me at high school, and now lives five blocks from me in Woodside. Kundan is also in at 5,000.

The “risk free” deal I offered to them is this.

Should the venture fail, from the day of the failure, I will have 12 months to return this 5K to you, as if it were a personal loan. Should the venture succeed, I will get 5% of the growth this investment might see. So if this 5K becomes a million dollars in five years, I get 5% of that million, namely 50K, and you get the rest.

To them it feels like the worst that can happen is their 5K will not grow. That puts their money in the safe 10% no risk zone. To me it feels like I just signed up to get 50K for free. I am hugely optimistic and confident about my venture.

This instrument I invented is not to say a tech startup is risk free. It is anything but. You take multiple risks on a daily basis. You have to innovate fast. You have to move fast.

A tech startup is super risky. That is precisely why the rewards are super high. No Nepali in New York City has a net worth approaching a hundred million dollars. And you can’t dream of getting there the old economy way. A successful tech startup might be one of the few vehicles to get there.

Launching a successful tech startup also puts you in a good position to raise money for your NGO, your non profit, if you have one, it puts you in a good position to raise money for hydro projects in Nepal, should that hit your fancy.

It takes a lot to be a successful entrepreneur, especially a successful tech entrepreneur. A huge appetite for risk is key. You will almost never have 100% of the information you need. Often times you will only know half of what you need to know. And you still have to call the shots with utmost confidence. You have to have the right instincts, or you have to cultivate them.

You could fail a thousand ways. You could fail every step of the way. You could fail after two years of “success.” The market (the goddess) could kill you three years down the line in one fell swoop and with little to no warning.

I don’t see all that as a downside. That risk factor is part of the excitement. It is reward in its own right.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

The Incubator Idea

English: Logo used for Rockstar Games's Grand Theft Auto series, appearing, with some modifications in all GTA games since Grand Theft Auto 3. Português: Logo usado para a série Grand Theft Auto da Rockstar Games, aparecendo, com algumas modificações, em todos os jogos de GTA desde Grand Theft Auto 3. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I am in touch with one individual, and two groups in the New York Nepali community right now. These are people who desire to launch tech startups, and would like help. Thakali Kitchen, Yak, Malingo all have websites built by my team. From there to helping people with their tech startups is a long way. I am glad for the ground covered.

In each case the idea is truly excellent. Between the three teams there are about eight ideas that I have come across. I have shot down one. I have called another mediocre. Some excellent ideas were simply let go. One idea was taken all the way to version 1. But the result was not that good. 300 downloads of an app is not impressive. I still think the idea is good. But for version two I have made a case for a 5% equity for my team, and a total say in the feature set of the app. I saw the mistakes that were made as they were made in version 1. But I had no control over the features. I was just to build what was asked of me. Big mistake.

50,000 is the magic number. You need 50,000 people using your app before venture capitalists will take a look at you and possibly invest money. Angel investors can come in earlier than that. But even early means a few thousand users at the least.

One guy on the second team came up with this brilliant, simple idea. But he chose not to follow through. Some other client independent of that approached my team with a very similar idea for the Kuwait market. It was a huge hit. I am talking close to half a million downloads. He quickly turned around and sold it for a million dollars. This was this past December. But we did not have equity. The failed app and the successful app both taught us to take equity when building something for a startup. And now that is a rule with my team. We take both dollars and equity. Dollars alone don’t suffice.

Excellent idea is a prerequisite. Without that you can’t move. But if that excellent idea is not only your beginning point but also your end point, you don’t have a company, you are not going to create wealth. You got to move.

Now I take a sign up payment, to be credited towards the down payment within days of talks starting. If your idea is excellent, and you intend to pursue it, your sign up payment is due. That separates the serious from those merely thinking about doing it.

The third team is five friends with an excellent idea who could raise 100K just among themselves. Version 1 work on an app tends to be in the 20K range. There are other expenses like legal, and marketing. You could not launch a Thakali Kitchen or a Yak with 100K, hardly 100 million dollar ideas, but you could launch a tech startup with 50K that, if you could turn into a hit, could end up with a market value of 100 million dollars in something like five years.

Two years back I could have helped. I have had to expand my team. A year from now, I will not be able to pick up clients like I can now. I expect to be too busy with my own startup.

You can be smart, you can be hardworking, but if you are risk averse, you are not going to be able to do a tech startup. This is not for someone looking for “guarantees.” Often times you have to move at full speed with little information. I could not convince or train someone to be a tech entrepreneur. Either someone is or is not a tech entrepreneur. I can only hope to find them.

You come up with an excellent idea, you raise round 1 money, you build version 1 of the product, you launch and do some fierce marketing to try and hit 50,000 users in the shortest possible time, along the way you raise round 2 money, something in the million dollar range, and you move towards version 2 of your product, you build your team along the way. Excellent execution is everything. A love for risks is a good thing. Be humble. Read. Learn. Take the plunge.

Or you could skip all that and simply invest 5K or 10K in my ambitious Augmented Reality Mobile Game. I think 5K invested in my startup today should be a million dollars in five years. Three of my friends came in at 5K each. I made it risk free for them.

Should the venture fail, from the day of the failure, I will have 12 months to return their 5K to them, as if it were a personal loan. Should the venture succeed, I get 5% of the growth their investment might see. So if this 5K becomes a million dollars in five years, I get 5% of that million, namely 50K, and they get the rest.

Gaming is the next big thing after movies, just like movies were the next big thing after radio entertainment. Grand Theft Auto making three billion dollars in three days after its last release proved the point beyond doubt. No movie has ever done anything like that.

We think Augmented Reality is one of the next big things in gaming itself.

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Sunday, November 23, 2014

सगुन, अंजन, छेपाक, डिल्ली, विनोद, कृष्ण

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Thursday, November 13, 2014

सगुन सँग सम्बन्ध

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Sunday, October 26, 2014

1K Per Nepali: Crunching Some Numbers

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Friday, October 03, 2014

No Guarantees

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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

The Incubator Idea

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