Democracy For Nepal: Steve Jobs

Showing posts with label Steve Jobs. Show all posts

Sunday, July 05, 2015

लोकतंत्र, संघीयता र आर्थिक क्रान्ति

लोकतंत्र, संघीयता र आर्थिक क्रान्ति। लोकतन्त्र पहिलो तल्ला घरको, संघीयता दोस्रो, आर्थिक क्रान्ति तेस्रो।

अधिकार भनेको बनिया को बहीखाता होइन। फाइदा भए दिने, होइन भने नदिने। कसैले कसैलाई अधिकार दिने नै होइन। जन्मँदै प्रत्येकले आफु सँग लिएर आएको अधिकार हरु लाई मान्यता दिने मात्र हो। हामी जाबो को हौं र कसैलाई अधिकार दिने?

जनताले क्रांति गर्दा शासक सँग अधिकार मागेको होइन --- शासक को भखारी को चामल होइन अधिकार। अधिकार बाहिर बाट दिने होइन, भित्र बाट आउने हो। अधिकार भनेको ह्रदय भित्र बाट आउने गीत संगीत जस्तो। चाहे त्यसले डांडा कांडा गुंजायमान पारोस।

लोकतंत्र अधिकार हो भने संघीयता पनि अधिकार हो। बढ़ी संख्या मा राज्य बनायो भने खर्च बढ्छ त्यसैले हुन्न भन्ने तर्क विभिन्न कारणले गलत हो। पहिलो कुरा त न्याय को हुन्छ। न्याय महँगो भयो भनेर अन्याय गर्ने कुरा आउँदैन। तर त्यो तर्क नै उल्टो हो। सबै भन्दा सस्तो संघीयता मा २५ राज्य हुने हो, टेक्निकल कुरा गर्ने हो भने। आठ राज्य मा सहमति भएको अति ठुलो गल्ती हो। तर लोकतन्त्र ले गल्ती गर्ने अधिकार दिएको हुन्छ।

लोकतंत्र अधिकार हो, तर अवसर पनि हो। संघीयता अधिकार हो, तर अवसर पनि हो। अवसर यस माने मा कि लोकतंत्रले पनि र संघीयताले पनि आर्थिक क्रान्ति सम्भव बनाउँछ।

मोदी प्रधान मंत्री बन्दा भारत को अर्थतंत्र दुई ट्रिलियन डॉलर को। अब केही वर्ष भित्र त्यो तीन ट्रिलियन भइसक्छ। त्यो जुन थप एक ट्रिलियन छ त्यो उसले कुन देश बाट चोरेर ल्याउने हो? त्यो कतै बाट चोरेर ल्याउने होइन, त्यो फॉरेन ऐड बाट आउने होइन। त्यो जादुगर ले हावा बाट खरायो निकाले जस्तो हो। त्यो पहिला कहीं हुँदै नभएको एक ट्रिलियन उसले थप्न लागेको। कुन स्टीव जॉब्स र कुन ईलोन मस्क अथवा कुन ल्यारी पेज ले त्यसरी एक ट्रिलियन कतै थप्न भ्याएको छ?

नेपालमा एउटा रोटी छ, त्यो रोटी अहिले बाहुन सँग छ, मधेसी, जनजाति, दलित र महिला लाई बाँड्ने हो भने बाहुन भोकभोकै बस्ने? संघीयता विरोधी हरुको दिमागमा त्यस किसिमको सोंच बारम्बार देखिएको छ। जब कि यथार्थ के हो भने अहिले नेपालमा एउटा रोटी छ भने संघीय नेपाल ले पाँच वर्षमा पाँच वटा रोटी सेक्छ। संघीयता ले आर्थिक क्रान्ति संभव बनाउँछ। बाहुन को घट्ने होइन। नपाएका ले पाउने हो र सबै को बढ्ने हो, बाहुनको पनि बढ्ने हो।

विचार र शक्ति

Sunday, October 26, 2014

1K Per Nepali: Crunching Some Numbers

Last week at a Diwali Party a great idea was floated. Nepali professionals in NYC should put 1K each into a pool which would be in the form of a company. There would be a small Executive Committee that would invest in early stage Nepali origin high tech startups following pre-approved guidelines. The company would also invest in startups based in Nepal.

Let's say 100 Nepalis got together and put in 1K each. You can't invest in every tech startup that comes along just because they are Nepali origin. And not all startups in which Nepalis are involved are looking for money, especially small money like this fund might have. At that event there were two Nepalis who were already working for tech startups. But neither were Founders. And both startups were well funded in their own right.

So with this startup you are looking for Nepali Founders.

Money invested in the stock markets grows at an average annual rate of 10%. Money invested in the US Treasury bonds gives you 5% or less. But the first 100K invested in Google became a billion and a half in about eight years. That is tens of thousands of percentage points in growth. That is wild. Never say never but let's assume, statistically speaking, that a Nepali Founder coming up with the next Google is not very likely. Statistically speaking.

The top VC firm in NYC has a success rate of 66%. As in, one third of the companies it invests in tend to fail. The best ones give them a 10X return. As in, every dollar invested becomes 10 dollars. A 10X return is considered excellent in the VC industry. So Google by that standard is out of the ballpark.

Let's say 100K is raised. And it is invested in three startups that have Nepali Founders, two in NYC/USA and one in Kathmandu. Let's say one NYC startup starts at a million dollar valuation and ends up with a billion dollar valuation in five years. Let's say one NYC startup goes bust, and the investment is lost. The Kathmandu startup starts at a million dollar valuation and goes on to a 100 million dollar valuation in five years.

So, it was 35K, 35K and 30K. 35K went bust. And this is an excellent scenario.

35K fetched 3.5% in equity, there was an anti-dilution clause. And so 3.5% of a billion is 35 million dollars. 30K fetched 3% and 3% of 100 million is three million dollars. So the 100K fund became $38 million in five years. And this is an excellent scenario.

A dud scenario is, 100K was raised, it was invested in three startups, all three went bust. The consolation was it only cost each person 1K each. A 10X scenario would be the 100K became a million dollars. In the VC industry that is considered to be excellent. As in, 100K becoming 35 million dollars is pretty much a wild case scenario.

When the money comes in, each 1K person would have the option to cash out. What is 1% of 35 million? 350K? Or the people could say, I want to take out 300K, and leave 50K in there. 50K times 100 is 5,000K, that is five million. And the Executive Committee now has five million to play with.

Or the fund could expand. It might start with 100K, and it might bring in 400 more people, or a thousand people, and be a 500K fund or a million dollar fund to start with. It is possible to show your companies are doing well before you actually get to cash out.

So far as I know I am the only Nepali in the city who is both a tech startup founder and is actively looking for round one money. My ask is in the 35K range. And my projection is that my startup should be a billion dollar company in five years.

Another great candidate would be the Amazon/Flipkart/Alibaba for the Nepal market that would also do Bitcoin based money transfer for near zero rates.

So my take would be, raise 100K right away, like today, invest in my startup, and start looking for that Kathmandu team. And then start looking for more 1K people. Maybe you want to come into my round 2 as well, as one of several investors.

In my particular case, I would be happy to offer to the fund what I have offered to some of my friends who have come into my round one at 5K each. I will make it risk free for the fund. Should the venture fail, from the day of the failure, I will have 12 months to return this 35K to the fund, as if it were a personal loan. Should the venture succeed, I will get 5% of the growth this investment might see. So if this 35K becomes seven million dollars in five years, I get 5% of that seven million, namely 350K, and the fund gets the rest.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Silicon

Larry Ellison on stage. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The number one destination for tech startups on the planet today is San Francisco. No, it is not Silicon Valley which continues to be home to the top tech companies in the world like Google, Apple and Facebook. Why did the center of gravity shift? Because the engineers wanted the city lifestyle. Most engineers who work for companies like Google in Silicon Valley tend to live in San Francisco.

Guess which city really has the city lifestyle? New York.

Boston used to be number two after Silicon Valley. Not any more. New York City has wrested that number two spot. Although Boston continues to be strong. Austin and Seattle are also strong spots.

But the Silicon Valley ecosystem is to be envied. One generation of successful entrepreneurs invest their money and wisdom into the next generation of entrepreneurs. That cycle goes on. You have to have several generations of successful companies to end up with the ecosystem that Silicon Valley has.

London and Berlin are also coming along. Bangalore in India has a decently rich density of developers. Chile has experimented with replicating the Silicon Valley thing. Israel has a vibrant tech ecosystem.

Geography matters less and less. India’s answer to Amazon - Flipkart - just raised a billion dollars. They are not in the Valley, or even in the US.

In New York City the primary tech action is in the Flatiron District. There is also a pocket in Dumbo. But Long Island City also has potential, I think. When Cornell establishes its tech campus on Roosevelt Island (New York City’s own “Stanford”) LIC will be a major attraction. Rent is substantially cheaper just because you crossed the river.

Culture is supreme. Silicon Valley’s strongest point might be that failure is celebrated there. Risk taking is probably the top quality in an entrepreneur. Failing is an essential part of the process. If you did not fail, that means you did not try, you did not take the plunge.

The big venture capitalists in the Valley raise their big money in New York City because this is where the pension funds and the like are.

FourSquare, one of the most celebrated tech startup stories to come out of NYC, has an office in San Francisco because they can’t afford not to hire some of the talented developers there who don’t want to live anywhere else. On the other hand, by now Google has a major presence in New York City. They just so happen to own the largest building in the city. It is because Google makes its money from ads. And guess where Madison Avenue is! But it is beyond that. Google has a major engineering presence in the city, as does Facebook, as does Twitter.

Silicon Valley is an attitude, it is a culture. It is about moonshots, as Larry Page might put it.

I routinely go to numerous tech events in the city. If someone makes the mistake of showing up in a suit, he immediately gets labeled a “suit.” I think there is something to be said of casual clothing, but you can not capture the essence of Silicon Valley in jeans or in a hoodie. Larry Ellison, probably the most colorful character to emerge in the Valley, has been wearing suits forever, that is his way of giving the finger to those who wear the casual stuff like they were uniform. You wear what you are comfortable wearing. That could be jeans and a turtleneck, the Steve Jobs way, or a suit as worn by his best friend Larry Ellison.

Software is eating the world, Marc Andreessen, the father of the Netscape browser that launched the web era, famously said in a Wall Street Journal article. There is so much still left to do that I expect the feast to go on for decades and longer. That is my way of saying one Silicon Valley is not enough, if it ever was. My answer to the famous question if Silicon Valley can be replicated is, yes it can be replicated. New York City is as good a place as any to build a tech startup.

Angel investing is a major aspect of a successful tech ecosystem. You seek some basic funding from friends and family. You need a basic prototype to be able to take a stab from the professional angel investors. And then there is crowdfunding. I see that as a majorly positive trend.

I think doing well as an entrepreneur in the New York City environment is a necessary precondition to being able to contribute to Nepal’s economic revolution. Brain drain is a pre-Internet, pre-globalization term. Today the work is so much more interlinked that you can be many places and contribute many places. There are global solutions to many local problems in Nepal.