Showing posts with label Google. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Google. Show all posts

Friday, October 23, 2015

Nepal: Political Laboratory



Nepal, more than anything else, more than a place where I grew up, more than lingering therapy for some past unpleasant to downright devastating experiences as a Madhesi, has been a political laboratory for me. I have imagined new things possible. And I have been disappointed.

It would have been nice to have one third of the constituencies reserved for women. Noone else in the world is doing it. A new constitution should be a cutting edge constitution. But that was not to be. I would also have liked a multi-party democracy of state funded parties, each party getting money in direct proportion to how many votes they collect, and being barred from other sources of funding. But not even the Maoists have gone for this.

I have not been a journalist reporting on events. I have been a digital activist trying to shape events. The distance has been a boon. I would have been less effective in person on the ground. From 10,000 miles away in New York City I have devoured on information sources to suggest actions and strategies to the progressive forces. The progressives of 2005 are the unapologetic regressives of 2015, and so 2015 still feels like 2005 to me, as the cause closest to my heart, equality for Madhesis, is as unfinished as ever as of now.

But the good news is India is waking up. As late as early this year, I was lamenting the word Madhesi does not exist in Patna, Lucknow or Delhi. But now the word also exists as fas as Kerala. The Madhesis for the first time have showed up on the Indian map. Never before have an Indian Prime Minister, an Indian Home Minister, an Indian Foreign Minister taken interest in Madhesis. Heck, I never got the impression they were ever aware we even existed. But that has changed, and that is tectonic. There are as many Madhesis as Jews on the planet today. Jesus was born a Jew, Buddha a Madhesi.

There have been take away lessons for me. I might have failed to shape political events exactly to my liking in Nepal, but I have managed to formulate a political roadmap for India. That India is the largest democracy, and democracy is not India doing America’s bidding, although it is high time America considered India to be the new Britain, its number one ally in the world. Democracy is native to India: the earliest republics were during the early years of Buddhism. America’s original mission of a total spread of democracy gets kneecapped by its original sin: race. The militarism gets in the way. It is too rich and unrelatable by the vast swaths in the Global South. There are not enough semi-educated Muslims in America. India has none of those disadvantages. India is better positioned to carry the torch than is America, although it remains shy. There is a peaceful way to spread democracy. Actually, peaceful is the only legitimate way, it is the most effective way. And there India can take the lead. And there my Nepal experience has not disappointed. If democracy will enter China, it will more likely do so through Nepal than Taiwan. Tibet is China’s soft belly. Tibet is too far from the China proper, and it is too close to Nepal and India. The Tibetan plateau will forever remain vulnerable, until it opens up.

The Law Of Political Entropy (I formulated it) says, a country tends democracy granted there is sufficient flow of information. Democracy is the natural order of things, and it comes from inside the human heart, inside every human heart. But its expression requires a free flow of information, often stenched by autocratic regimes. So powers like America and India that live and die by democracy, or should live and die by democracy, should focus first and foremost on beaming down the Internet to all corners of the globe. Elon Musk is already doing it. The US government should simply become an angel investor and perhaps buy 10% of his satellite internet company for 10 billion dollars. The growth that investment might see will also help pay down some of the humongous American debt. The Chinese might appreciate.

Democracy has to come as a consciousness and a roadmap, and an organizational structure and a leadership flow. Perhaps you start in the diaspora. Once you are ready, and you have an interim constitution at the ready, and an interim Head Of State in waiting, then you seek to shut the country down completely. At least 25% of the people will need to show up in the streets. The interim government holds elections to a constituent assembly within a year of taking over. The only rule for the interim and the subsequent cosntitution is it may not clash with the Universal Declaration Of Human Rights.

This roadmap is the best for the cause of a total spread of democracy, and Nepal has been the political laboratory where I saw it tested on the ground. In this roadmap, the smartphone is the AK-47.

This also means opening wide the doors of immigration in the rich countries. Not only do you need that to prop up your own ageing populations, remittances have been way more effective than foreign aid, and diasporas pick up lessons in democracy and organizing that State Department programs can’t teach, it is beyond their scope. The scale is humongous. Immigration can not, should not be stopped, it should be encourged and managed well. Do not fight it, tame it. Globalization is not just a free flow of information and goods, people also want to move around. That movement brings forth progress. People always seem to want to move from less desirable to more desirable conditions. They know what is more desirable. They move, they soak up, they learn, and then they propagate. They beam it all back to places where they came from. And light spreads. It’s not just democracy, it’s also prosperity. Democracy very appeal is that it makes prosperity possible.

HRW Report
Nepal's Decade Long Political Transition






Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Intellectual Property

English: Cover of Against Intellectual Propert...
English: Cover of Against Intellectual Property by Stephan Kinsella (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
चोर ढोका बाट संविधान मा Intellectual Property घुसाउने प्रयास हुन सक्छ।

Intellectual Property राम्रो र चाहिने कुरा हो। तर यसको घोर दुरुपयोग हुने गरेको छ। खुद सिलिकॉन वैली (Silicon Valley) आजित छ  यसबाट। सतर्क भएन भने थाहै नपाई ईस्ट इंडिया कंपनी भन्दा खतरनाक मल्टी नेशनल कंपनी देश भित्र छिर्न सक्छ।

उदहारण। धान को यो बिउ हाम्रो कंपनी को वैज्ञानिक ले पत्ता लगाएको। यी हेर कागज। भन्यो। कागज देखायो। अनि बसी बसी नेपाल का गरीब किसान सँग प्रत्येक वर्ष त्यो कंपनी ले टैक्स बटुले जस्तो पैसा बटुल्ने।

विश्व व्यापार का सन्धि हरु मा गरीब देश हरु र धनी देश हरु बीच यस बारे घम्सा घमसी पर्ने गर्छ। सबै इंटरनेट मा छ। अध्ययन गर्न गार्हो छैन। मित्र राष्ट्र का अनुभव हरु बारे संपर्क र छलफल गर्न सकिन्छ। अरु ले के गरे के गरेनन, कहाँ विवाद भयो, किन भयो, सब इंटरनेट मा हेर्न सकिन्छ।

अर्को उदाहरण। भारत ले नाइ सही गर्दिन भनेका थुप्रै यस्ता छन जहाँ सही गर्यो कि भारत मा बेचिने थुप्रै औषधि ह्वात्त महँगो भएर आम भारतीय जनता को पहुँच बाहिर जाने।

त्यसै ले पहिचान को झगड़ा गर्दा गर्दै थाहै नपाई सारा देश कुनै २१ औं शताब्दी को ईस्ट इंडिया कंपनी लाई सही गरेर नबुझाई दिने। त्यस्ता कंपनी घुस खुवाउन बड़ो सिपालु हुन्छन्। तिनको आफ्नो भन्ने सरकार हुँदैन। ती आफैमा सरकार हुन्छन्। बड़ो ताकतवर हुन्छन्। चनाखो रहनु पर्छ।

जनता को काम जनता द्वारा निर्वाचित ले पारदर्शी किसिमले गर्नु पर्ने प्रावधान यस मानेमा जरुरी छ। होइन भने पैसा पाए देश बेचने हरु को कमी छैन।

देश भित्र अनुसन्धान र मौलिक काम हरु भएर Intellectual Property हरु बटुलिँदै जानु सार्है राम्रो हो। त्यो बिना आधुनिक अर्थतंत्र को निर्माण संभव छैन।






Wednesday, July 22, 2015

भाषा बारे बैज्ञानिक विचार

भाषा बारे बैज्ञानिक विचार भनेर मैले आफु लाई बैज्ञानिक भनेको होइन। तथ्य मा आधारित तर्क अगाडि सार्ने हो भने कस्तो पिक्चर आउँछ भन्ने सम्म हो।

केन्द्रमा दुई भाषा: नेपाली र हिन्दी। मधेसी पहाड़ी समानता को राजनीतिक कारण पनि छ भने पहाड़ी समुदाय का लागि आर्थिक कारण पनि छ। हाई स्कुल सम्म को पठन पाठन गरेर, हिन्दी मा राम्रो लेखपढ गर्ने भएर अनि कामकाज का लागि भारत पस्ने कि, अझ केही सिप जस्तो सीकर्मी डकर्मी सिकेर भारत पस्ने कि, अहिले जस्तो सम्म भइआएको निरक्षर भएर, हिंदी को ज्ञान न भैकन जाने परिपाटी कायम गर्ने? सबै भन्दा बढ़ी नेपाली प्रवासी भएको देश भारत। विश्व भरि नेपाली भने पछि छु मतलब छ। नेपाली हरु विश्वमा इज्जत र समानता पाउने भनेको आफ्नो दक्षिण एसियाली पहिचान का आधारमा हो। संयुक्त राष्ट्र संघ मा हिन्दी छैठौं भाषा को रुपमा खड़ा भएर हो। गूगल ले सम्पुर्ण इंटरनेट लाई हिन्दी मा अनुवाद गर्न खोजेको छ। म आफै अंग्रेजी पढेको मान्छे, अरु लाई अंग्रेजी नपढ़ भनेर किन भन्छु र? तर एउटा औसत नेपाली का लागि अंग्रेजी भन्दा हिंदी तुलनात्मक धेरै सजिलो। मास मा जान का लागि हिन्दी धेरै राम्रो। तथ्यगत कुरा गरेको।

आठ प्रान्तमा प्रत्येक मा २-३ भाषा: मैथिलि जस्ता भाषा। प्रमुख १५ वटा जति भाषा समेटिने हुन्छ।

स्थानीय स्तरमा: केन्द्र र प्रान्त मा न आए पनि कुनै गाउँ मा बहुसंख्यक ले बोल्ने भाषा हरु छन। त्यहाँ ती भाषा को प्रयोग को बाटो प्रशस्त गर्नु पर्छ।

अमेज़न जंगल को जैविक विविधता जगेर्ना गर्नु र नेपाल जस्तो देशमा भाषा हरुको जगेर्ना गर्नु उस्तै उस्तै हो। तर चुरे का जंगल मास्ने हरुले संविधान लेख्दै छन। एक भाषा एक भेष मनस्थिति का मानिस हरु। बाहुनले च्याउ खाओस न स्वाद पाओस्।


Monday, November 03, 2014

Hindi And Nepal

Indo-Aryan languages, grouping according to SI...
Indo-Aryan languages, grouping according to SIL Ethnologue (Urdu is not shown because it is mainly a lingua franca with no prevalence as a first language.) Central and East Central zones Northern zone Northwestern zone Eastern zone Southern zone Insular (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The vast majority of Nepalis live local lifestyles. They live near where they were born. And that should tell you the importance of the mother tongue. Government services and schools should speak to this. Primary education is best given in one's mother tongue. Understanding that is key to achieving a 100% literacy rate.

India is the number one destination for Nepalis who go outside the country for work and education. And that is why Hindi should be available to learn in every school in the country. Not only that, Hindi is on its way to becoming on par with the English language itself. Technology will translate the entire Internet into Hindi soon enough. Hindi will become the sixth language at the UN. What English is in Europe, Hindi should become for South Asia. Resistance is futile.

Nepali, Hindi, the various mother tongues, English. I am for all of them.

Google announces Indian Language Internet Alliance, aims for 500 million internet users by 2017
Google aims to get 500 million internet users in India by 2017. In an effort to promote local language content on the internet, Google also announced its Hindi Voice Search. It also launched the website hindiWeb.com, which shall offer curated content in Hindi. ...... Google voice search and Knowledge Graph suggestions will be available in Hindi with the option of multiple Hindi fonts available at Google.com/fonts. Stuff like Keyboard Predictions in Hindi, already available on Android One devices shall also be extended. ..... In September, it launched its Android One devices with standardized hardware, stock Android experience and timely updates. Though the devices are all priced above the mental barrier of Rs 5000, Google expects to break into the extremely lucrative low end smartphone segment with its Android One offerings. And if we needed more testimony, it lies in the fact that Sundar Pichai, now widely claimed as one of the top contenders for the top job in Google came to India to kick off the Android One journey. ..... India has 19.8 crore English speakers, almost all of them online, Anandan said today. Regional language content will go a long way in getting the next wave of users online.
Google launches alliance to promote Indian languages on web
The internet search giant says it aims to engage 300 million Indian language speakers through the initiative by 2017. The alliance will work together to accelerate building Indic language content for users in the country. ..... Apart from Google, the group includes Times Internet, C-Dac, Reverie Language Technologies, LinguaNext Technologies, DB Digital, and Amar Ujala Publications among others. ..... "Our mission at Google is to ensure the world's information is universally accessible, and this includes the millions of users in India who are about to come online for the first time. Hindi Voice Search will be just one of the many steps Google is taking to empower the Indian language users and advertisers to take advantage of the web's huge economic and social potential."

Sunday, October 26, 2014

1K Per Nepali: Crunching Some Numbers

Last week at a Diwali Party a great idea was floated. Nepali professionals in NYC should put 1K each into a pool which would be in the form of a company. There would be a small Executive Committee that would invest in early stage Nepali origin high tech startups following pre-approved guidelines. The company would also invest in startups based in Nepal.

Let's say 100 Nepalis got together and put in 1K each. You can't invest in every tech startup that comes along just because they are Nepali origin. And not all startups in which Nepalis are involved are looking for money, especially small money like this fund might have. At that event there were two Nepalis who were already working for tech startups. But neither were Founders. And both startups were well funded in their own right.

So with this startup you are looking for Nepali Founders.

Money invested in the stock markets grows at an average annual rate of 10%. Money invested in the US Treasury bonds gives you 5% or less. But the first 100K invested in Google became a billion and a half in about eight years. That is tens of thousands of percentage points in growth. That is wild. Never say never but let's assume, statistically speaking, that a Nepali Founder coming up with the next Google is not very likely. Statistically speaking.

The top VC firm in NYC has a success rate of 66%. As in, one third of the companies it invests in tend to fail. The best ones give them a 10X return. As in, every dollar invested becomes 10 dollars. A 10X return is considered excellent in the VC industry. So Google by that standard is out of the ballpark.

Let's say 100K is raised. And it is invested in three startups that have Nepali Founders, two in NYC/USA and one in Kathmandu. Let's say one NYC startup starts at a million dollar valuation and ends up with a billion dollar valuation in five years. Let's say one NYC startup goes bust, and the investment is lost. The Kathmandu startup starts at a million dollar valuation and goes on to a 100 million dollar valuation in five years.

So, it was 35K, 35K and 30K. 35K went bust. And this is an excellent scenario.

35K fetched 3.5% in equity, there was an anti-dilution clause. And so 3.5% of a billion is 35 million dollars. 30K fetched 3% and 3% of 100 million is three million dollars. So the 100K fund became $38 million in five years. And this is an excellent scenario.

A dud scenario is, 100K was raised, it was invested in three startups, all three went bust. The consolation was it only cost each person 1K each. A 10X scenario would be the 100K became a million dollars. In the VC industry that is considered to be excellent. As in, 100K becoming 35 million dollars is pretty much a wild case scenario.

When the money comes in, each 1K person would have the option to cash out. What is 1% of 35 million? 350K? Or the people could say, I want to take out 300K, and leave 50K in there. 50K times 100 is 5,000K, that is five million. And the Executive Committee now has five million to play with.

Or the fund could expand. It might start with 100K, and it might bring in 400 more people, or a thousand people, and be a 500K fund or a million dollar fund to start with. It is possible to show your companies are doing well before you actually get to cash out.

So far as I know I am the only Nepali in the city who is both a tech startup founder and is actively looking for round one money. My ask is in the 35K range. And my projection is that my startup should be a billion dollar company in five years.

Another great candidate would be the Amazon/Flipkart/Alibaba for the Nepal market that would also do Bitcoin based money transfer for near zero rates.

So my take would be, raise 100K right away, like today, invest in my startup, and start looking for that Kathmandu team. And then start looking for more 1K people. Maybe you want to come into my round 2 as well, as one of several investors.

In my particular case, I would be happy to offer to the fund what I have offered to some of my friends who have come into my round one at 5K each. I will make it risk free for the fund. Should the venture fail, from the day of the failure, I will have 12 months to return this 35K to the fund, as if it were a personal loan. Should the venture succeed, I will get 5% of the growth this investment might see. So if this 35K becomes seven million dollars in five years, I get 5% of that seven million, namely 350K, and the fund gets the rest.


Sunday, August 03, 2014

Angel Investing

English: Diagram of the typical financing cycl...
English: Diagram of the typical financing cycle for a startup company. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Angel investing is a beautiful thing. The person who put the first 100K into Google saw it become a billion and a half in eight years. You couldn’t win a lottery and see that kind of money. Peter Thiel put 500K into Facebook for 5% in its first Silicon Valley round and I believe second round overall and saw it become almost two billion dollars in six years, I think. Granted companies like Google and Facebook are rare.

Predictably there are fewer multi billion dollar companies than there are hundred million dollar companies. And there are far more companies that get bought in the tens of millions. A client of mine turned around and sold his app for a cool million. He had total ownership and so got all the money. That transaction was not covered by any of the tech blogs. There are far too many of those to hit the headlines.

A million might be small compared to a billion, but it is no small sum, objectively speaking. Considering a million could give 100K in annual return without getting used up, you could retire if you had a million dollars. I think it is very possible to live off of 100K a year.

Say you invested 50K in a company valued at a million for a five per cent stake, and the company had a 50 million dollar exit four years later, your 50K will have become 2500K, or two and a half million dollars. That would not be a bad return.

Post-IPO it is hard for a company to show wild growth like from inception to the IPO. Most VCs will cash out soon after an IPO for that reason. They know the wild growth is in the early stages.

Let me ask you a trick question. If you had 50K to invest, and you had the option to get 5% or 50% of a tech startup, which would you rather go for? Most people make the wrong choice and say they would like 50% of the company. Getting 5% is better. At 50% you will likely kill the hen that lays the golden egg. You will scare away round two investors. You will not leave much room for the company to be able to attract top talent. Chances are you will also have squeezed the founders of the company. Not being able to raise round two money, the company likely will die. And you will have lost your 50K. Because 50% of zero is? Zero.

A healthy tech startup is one that has plenty of equity for the founders of the company, for various rounds of investors, and for the entire team as it might build up over years.

IPOs are rare, but then it is a good thing that many other forms of exits are possible. Getting bought is a decent enough exit. Most tech startup founders dream about getting bought, and many do get bought.

It would be hard, probably impossible, to raise two million dollars for a tech startup in the New York City Nepali community. But a startup could possibly raise 100K or 200K. If the idea is great, and if the work with that initial seed fund is great, that startup could then go out into the larger market of professional investors and hope to raise two million dollars. A New York Nepali community that can not produce millionaire entrepreneur after millionaire entrepreneur is in no position to lecture the homeland Nepal on economic development issues. Practice before you preach.

Patel Brothers is likely the largest business in Jackson Heights. On an express train Jackson Heights is but 20 minutes from Times Square. As in, you are very much in the city when you are in Jackson Heights. And the place has a great selection of bars and restaurants. Jackson Heights is the only place in the city with garden apartment complexes. I think it would be possible for tech startups based out of Jackson Heights to surpass Patel Brothers - which is an old economy company - in a few swift years. Silicon Valley used to be apple orchards.

Angel investing is when you have the money - maybe 10K, maybe 20K, maybe 50K - but not the ideas, or the time, or the expertise to work on a tech startup. A lot of old economy professionals in the local Nepali community could afford to angel invest. Actually, I don’t think they can afford to not invest. You should harbor the fear of missing out.

The democracy movement is over. The Madhesi movement is over. Now for the next 20 years Nepal has no other business than rapid economic development. The local Nepali community will have to prove itself locally before it can hope for a significant involvement back home. Entrepreneurship is it, and tech entrepreneurship is the crown jewel.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Silicon

Larry Ellison on stage.
Larry Ellison on stage. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The number one destination for tech startups on the planet today is San Francisco. No, it is not Silicon Valley which continues to be home to the top tech companies in the world like Google, Apple and Facebook. Why did the center of gravity shift? Because the engineers wanted the city lifestyle. Most engineers who work for companies like Google in Silicon Valley tend to live in San Francisco.

Guess which city really has the city lifestyle? New York.

Boston used to be number two after Silicon Valley. Not any more. New York City has wrested that number two spot. Although Boston continues to be strong. Austin and Seattle are also strong spots.

But the Silicon Valley ecosystem is to be envied. One generation of successful entrepreneurs invest their money and wisdom into the next generation of entrepreneurs. That cycle goes on. You have to have several generations of successful companies to end up with the ecosystem that Silicon Valley has.

London and Berlin are also coming along. Bangalore in India has a decently rich density of developers. Chile has experimented with replicating the Silicon Valley thing. Israel has a vibrant tech ecosystem.

Geography matters less and less. India’s answer to Amazon - Flipkart - just raised a billion dollars. They are not in the Valley, or even in the US.

In New York City the primary tech action is in the Flatiron District. There is also a pocket in Dumbo. But Long Island City also has potential, I think. When Cornell establishes its tech campus on Roosevelt Island (New York City’s own “Stanford”) LIC will be a major attraction. Rent is substantially cheaper just because you crossed the river.

Culture is supreme. Silicon Valley’s strongest point might be that failure is celebrated there. Risk taking is probably the top quality in an entrepreneur. Failing is an essential part of the process. If you did not fail, that means you did not try, you did not take the plunge.

The big venture capitalists in the Valley raise their big money in New York City because this is where the pension funds and the like are.

FourSquare, one of the most celebrated tech startup stories to come out of NYC, has an office in San Francisco because they can’t afford not to hire some of the talented developers there who don’t want to live anywhere else. On the other hand, by now Google has a major presence in New York City. They just so happen to own the largest building in the city. It is because Google makes its money from ads. And guess where Madison Avenue is! But it is beyond that. Google has a major engineering presence in the city, as does Facebook, as does Twitter.

Silicon Valley is an attitude, it is a culture. It is about moonshots, as Larry Page might put it.

I routinely go to numerous tech events in the city. If someone makes the mistake of showing up in a suit, he immediately gets labeled a “suit.” I think there is something to be said of casual clothing, but you can not capture the essence of Silicon Valley in jeans or in a hoodie. Larry Ellison, probably the most colorful character to emerge in the Valley, has been wearing suits forever, that is his way of giving the finger to those who wear the casual stuff like they were uniform. You wear what you are comfortable wearing. That could be jeans and a turtleneck, the Steve Jobs way, or a suit as worn by his best friend Larry Ellison.

Software is eating the world, Marc Andreessen, the father of the Netscape browser that launched the web era, famously said in a Wall Street Journal article. There is so much still left to do that I expect the feast to go on for decades and longer. That is my way of saying one Silicon Valley is not enough, if it ever was. My answer to the famous question if Silicon Valley can be replicated is, yes it can be replicated. New York City is as good a place as any to build a tech startup.

Angel investing is a major aspect of a successful tech ecosystem. You seek some basic funding from friends and family. You need a basic prototype to be able to take a stab from the professional angel investors. And then there is crowdfunding. I see that as a majorly positive trend.

I think doing well as an entrepreneur in the New York City environment is a necessary precondition to being able to contribute to Nepal’s economic revolution. Brain drain is a pre-Internet, pre-globalization term. Today the work is so much more interlinked that you can be many places and contribute many places. There are global solutions to many local problems in Nepal.