How The FDRA Could Bring In Baidya, Yadav, Rai

English: Sketch portrait of Pushpa Kamal Dahal, President of the communist party of Nepal-maoist Français : Pushpa Kamal Dahal, président du parti communiste népalais-maoïste Italiano: Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Presidente del partito comunista del Nepal-maoista (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The FDRA should leave no stone unturned to bring in the break away Maoist group, and Upendra Yadav's coalition and the two parties that broke away from the CPN(UML) and the NC as well fringe parties like those led by Sarita Giri.

The promise to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties should bring in Baidya. A fair share of seats and a promise to form a two thirds majority government, not a simple majority government should bring in Yadav and his coalition. The same might work for the two Rais.

Already the FDRA is poised to hit 55-60%. But 60% is not enough. You need 66%. And the FDRA expanding to include Baidya, the Yadav led coalition and the two Rai led parties would suffice to bring forth a two thirds majority in the next assembly for a coalition of federalists.

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the main contentious issue of election manifesto is the issues related to Madhes. Madhes-based parties have pressed the Maoists to give priority to their agenda, while preparing the election manifesto ..... The meeting also entrusted FDRA head Pushpa Kamal Dahal to hold talks with other parties and bring them on board, forging election alliances.

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A Nitish Kumar model for India or a Modi model for Bihar?

Modi declared that the business of governments was not business. He talked of harnessing solar energy by installing panels over canals and he suggested partial privatization of that holy cow, the railways .... Presently, 11 states have the special-status tag: the seven North-eastern States, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. .... The gap between the per capita income of Bihar and the national per capita income has kept widening since 1950-51 ..... “For Bihar, acceleration of the rate of growth of around 11 percent during the Eleventh Plan to around 13 percent during the Twelfth Plan will require a massive increase in total investment (public and private)—from around 29.9% in Eleventh Plan to around 45% during the Twelfth Plan period. This has got to be financed by domestic and government savings.”

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FDRA's Awesome Move

English: Pushpa Kumar Dahal (also known as Prachanda), prime minister of Nepal, during av visit to Norway in March 2009 ‪Norsk (bokmål)‬: Pushpa Kumar Dahal (også kjent som Prachanda), Nepals statsminister, under et besøk i Norge i mars 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

To contest with one candidate everywhere is awesome. This will bring about a victory to the federalism cause. The FDRA should go one step further and bring in many other federalist parties under the FDRA tent. Upendra Yadav, Sharad Singh, Sarita Giri, Ashok Rai, Gopal Rai come to mind.

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common manifesto, common candidates and a common agenda. .... FDRA leaders have been arguing that the alliance is a new force favoring federal states based on ethnic identity. ..... The meeting on Tuesday also decided to expand the FDRA in all districts. It will decide through consensus which alliance party will head the alliance in which district.

प्रमुख दलहरु 'चुनावी मैदानमा होमिदै'
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It’s a hobbyhorse in Nepal to go on beating about RAW and intelligence agencies. Yes, RAW and intelligence agencies are there. They work. They sometimes work correctly, sometimes incorrectly, sometimes they vitiate the problem, sometimes they are unable to do anything. You can’t peg all your decision making, all your developments in Nepal just on intelligence agencies. That shows the level of understanding of the Indian political system. Tell me actually how many Nepalese are understanding or reading or studying the Indian political system how it works? Intelligence agencies are not the only factor, only force in the political system.

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The symbolic of disorder

Hegemony works because its subjects accept it not just willingly but enthusiastically. ..... for the BCN ‘patriots,’ Binod will forever be a Marwari who manipulated his way to the top. The billionaire’s achievements then become the cause of jealousy and resentment rather than admiration and inspiration. ..... The most happening place in Bhairahawa, the gateway to Lumbini, is the Devkota Chowk. ..... Awadhis try their best to impress officers manning outposts of the state in the frontier district by speaking in Nepali and repeatedly fail to properly express themselves. ..... It was King Mahendra who killed the diversity of the country and sapped the creativity of the countryside with his one-language, one-culture, one-religion and one-dress formula. ..... Macaulay manufactured the Brown Englishman and enchained the Indian mind for a long time to come. ..... Mahendrism has produced Nationalist Madheshis who refuse to realize that they would perhaps be better Nepalis by being what they are rather than wasting their energy in becoming what they can never authentically be. ..... Despite the wave of the Madhesh Uprising, voters of Kapilvastu sent Dip Kumar Upadhyaya (Lamichhane?) to the dissolved Constituent Assembly where he spent more time running down Madheshi aspirations for federalism and inclusion than in protecting, let alone promoting, their interests. ..... An influential section of Madheshis has been conditioned to accept their humiliation (“the enforced lowering of a person or group, a process of subjugation that damages or strips away their pride, honor or dignity”) as normal and are frightened to emerge out of the mainstream mask. Recognition of difference is perhaps the point of departure for empowerment.

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Mahato said the national consensus government should be formed under the leadership of an independent person..... the Madhes-based party has also decided to expand its organizations in all the 75 districts within next three months to accommodate leaders from all communities in the party.

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The FDRA's Options

Looks Like The Madhesi Morcha Saved The Day Again

Considering what the NC and the UML are doing, and what the president has been doing, what are the FDRA's options?

(1) The UCPN(M) Should Transform The CPN(M), Not The Other Way Round

Some recent comments by Prachanda can be understood in terms of him competing politically with Baidya who is further to the left than Prachanda. It is understandable that he feels the compulsion. But the solution is not Prachanda becoming more like Baidya. The solution is to attempt political fusion.

Any revival of the YCL will risk a relabeling of the Maoists as terrorists by the US. Getting rid of that label was hard work. The Maoists should not do anything to get that label back. The Maoists going back to their old ways would be the surest way to undo the 2006 revolution.

Instead there should be an agreement on people's revolt - getting people out into the streets - as a legitimate political weapon. More important, the Maoists should take a stand that Nepal has to be turned into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. That would give Nepal a political system unlike that in India, Britain, America or China. That political fusion is the solution to the Baidya-Baburam tussle. I am surprised Baburam is not waging a more vicious ideological struggle.

(2) Maoist Unification, Madhesi Unification

The two Maoist parties should seek to unite. All Madhesi parties should become one party. That would be best for the cause of federalism. That would also be good for post constitution writing. A two party alliance of the Maoists and the Madhesis would make it possible for Baburam to do in Nepal what Nitish is doing in Bihar.

(3) Home To NC, Finance To UML

The FDRA should make it public that that is as far as it is willing to go to form an all party government. That or the FDRA would launch a mass movement to pressure the president to pass the election related ordinances.

(4) Showing The Ceremonial President His Place

The president can not actively engage in politics. That is what he has been doing. The FDRA could boycott all meetings called by the president until he passes the election related ordinances. And the FDRA should get out into the streets. Mass meetings and mass street demonstrations would be a good idea. I mean, I am sad street action has become necessary. But if that is what the anti-federalists want, that is what they should get. Street demonstrations would be enough. Prachanda does not have to talk about reviving the YCL or the parallel government. For one, such talk will likely break up the FDRA. That is a no no.

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In A Revived Constituent Assembly

English: The chart shows the composition of the Constituent Assembly Members (2008) vis a vis the parties they belong. Also percentage of the parties in CA is given. Gender/Women composition can also be found. Please contact Bal Krishna Jha (balkrishnajha@gmail.com) in case doubt/query. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I am crunching some numbers based on this. And I remember Baidya claiming they are now the third largest party, so I am guessing they have more MPs than does the UML. I don't have the figures for where the Madhesi parties stand after their many splits.

UCPN(M) -- 119
NC ------- 115
CPN(M) --- 110
UML ------ 108*
MJF(D) ---- 13
NMSP ------ 13
MJF(R) ---- 12
MJFN ------ 14
TMLP ------ 11
TMLP(N) --- 10
RPP ------- 8
CPN(ML) --- 9
SP -------- 5
SSP ------- 4
Others ---- 46 (17 parties)

* I have no knowledge of how many of these are now with Ashok Rai.

Looks like both the Maoists-Madhesis and the NC-UML need the help of the Baidya group to be able to form a majority government if the assembly is revived. Or if the NC-UML bring a no confidence motion the Baidya group would have to abstain for the Baburam government to survive.

The key thing, though, is the federalists already have the signatures of two thirds of the members of the assembly. Federalism can be secured through the assembly.

FDRA rules out spring polls without package deal

the decision that if the major parties fail to reach consensus in a package deal by January 9 then the fresh polls won’t be held in April/May. ..... if the parties are incapable of hammering out a consensus between the parties then the FDRA will put forth a demand for the resurrection of the Constituent Assembly (CA) to promulgate the much hyped constitution. ..... decision to transform the PM Bhattarai led care taker government into consensus one as proposed earlier, failing which the ruling alliance will forward the name of another candidate from the ruling coalition. ..... If the parties do not agree to these options then there is no alternative but to go for neutral government

Gachhadhar rules out CA revival‚ clamours for fresh polls

the parties should forge consensus at the earliest and go for fresh polls rather than opting for the CA revival as it is complicated and impossible in the present scenario..... In today’s FDRA meeting most of the leaders had asserted for the reinstatement of the CA.

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To Revive Or Not To Revive

For the longest time the Nepali Congress people have been blaming Baburam Bhattarai saying he is the one who dissolved the constituent assembly. In short, they have been missing the constituent assembly. Logic would say they would get excited about the idea of reviving the constituent assembly, to getting it back. That does not seem to be the case.

FDRA for CA revival if no package deal by Jan 9

A meeting of FDRA, an alliance of nearly two dozen political parties, including the UCPN (Maoist), held in the capital on Thursday concluded that the CA revival would be an easy and the least expensive option to take the constitution writing process ahead. ...... the meeting stressed the need for reviving the CA also for constitutional amendment

NC, UML reject CA revival option

"Revival of the CA was not an appropriate solution to end the present political crisis even in the past. It is not a right approach for the present either and it going to be a solution in future," Congress leader Minendra Rijal .... Sushil Koirala had ruled out any possibility of his party supporting CA revival proposal

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The Anti Federal Alliance (AFA)

Baburam's Options
Broadening The Ruling Alliance

The FDRA hoping for some kind of a consensus with the Anti Federal Alliance would have been like the parties seeking consensus with the king in 2005. The polarization at that point was necessary. That is how progress was made, by making it the king versus the rest. The polarization today is also necessary. This is how federalism will be introduced in Nepal.

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