Showing posts with label Deng Xiaoping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Deng Xiaoping. Show all posts

Monday, May 30, 2022

Ratan, Lee, Deng




अमेरिका को मधेसी संगठन एण्टा का संस्थापक अध्यक्ष रतन झा को अहिले सम्म को सबैभन्दा मैले सम्झिने कुरा फेसबुक मार्फ़त मलाई यो पुस्तक सम्म पुर्याइदिएको। एउटा स्टेटस थियो यो पुस्तक दुई वर्ष अगाडि। मैले पुस्तक देखें, किनें, पढ़ें। रतन जी भन्दा पहिला पढ़ि सकाएं। दफा दफा मा लाइन मुनि धर्को कोरी कोरी। 

राष्ट्रनिर्माण मा ली गोल्ड स्टैण्डर्ड नै हो। र आर्थिक प्रगति मात्र होइन। बिभिन्न। जस्तो कि दंगा रोकथाम। थुप्रै। लगभग प्रत्येक पक्ष। स्वास्थ्य बीमा। होम ओनरशीप (Home Ownership)। 




मैले हीरो मानेको ली। ली ले हीरो मानेको डेंग। डेंग बारे को किताब पनि पढ़ें। चिनिया राजनीतिक प्रणाली बारे धेरै कुरा थाहा भो। ली ले हीरो किन मानेको भन्ने पनि देखें। आर्थिक नेपोलियन नै हो डेंग। सांस्कृतिक क्रांति का दौरान डेंग को छोरा लाई प्यारलाइज हुने गरी पिटपाट गरिएको। डेंग आफै हाउस अरेस्ट मा। 

चीन लाई एउटा अर्को डेंग चाहिएको हो। सी ले चीन लाई मिडल इनकम ट्रैप मा लगेर थन्क्याएको अवस्था छ। डेंग ले आर्थिक सुधार गरे। राजनीतिक सुधार पछि गर्ने भनेका। त्यो समय त अब आइसक्यो। 




Thursday, November 19, 2015

झापा त Sensitive Zone हो, चीनले बुझ्नुपर्छ

झापा त Sensitive Zone हो, चीनले बुझ्नुपर्छ। चीनले नेपालमा बनाउन चाहेको Special Economic Zone जसमा उ तीन खरब खर्च गर्न चाहन्छ, त्यसका लागि झापा भन्दा अनुपयुक्त ठाउँ अर्को हुनै सक्दैन। चीन ले मधेस सँग सम्बन्ध निर्माण गर्ने तर्फ सोच्नुपर्छ। Special Economic Zone का लागि सबै भन्दा उपयुक्त ठाउँ जनकपुर हो।

जनकपुर जयनगर ब्रॉड गेज रेल बने पछि कलकत्ता बाट काठमाण्डु पुग्ने सबै भन्दा छोटो बाटो जनकपुर को बाटो हुनेछ। झापा देखि नारायणी नदी सम्म को जुन मधेस प्रदेश बन्न लागेको छ त्यसको राजधानी जनकपुर हुन्छ। भविष्य मा धनुषा र  महोत्तरी सारा जिल्ला छोप्ने गरी एउटा महानगर बनाउने कुरा को कल्पना गर्न सकिन्छ, सारा नेपालको २५% मानिस अटाउने, ताकि पहाड़मा ७०%  forest cover गर्न सकियोस्। त्यस्तो ठाउँ मा पो Special Economic Zone बनाउने हो।

पहिला जनकपुर मा बनाउने। पछि बिहार को दरभंगा मा पनि बनाउने। हिन्द-चीनी भाइ भाइ।

झापा का बाहुन जात मात्र बाहुन, दिमाग खाली छ सबको। त्यहाँ Special Economic Zone का लागि शिक्षित मैनपावर नै पाउँदैन। एका कुनामा रहेको झापा।

जनकपुर सारा मधेस को सांस्कृतिक र राजनीतिक राजधानी। चीन-मधेस सम्बन्ध बलियो पार्ने उत्तम उपाय हो जनकपुर मा चीनले Special Economic Zone बनाउने।

झापा कुछ नहीं है।




मधेस र थरुहटले आफ्नो अधिकार पाउन संगै मिलेर जानुको विकल्प नरहेको विचार आज सप्तरीको ओद्राहामा आयोजित सभामा तमरा अभियानका ...

Posted by Jay Prakash Gupta on Thursday, November 19, 2015

मधेश बिरोधी सम्बिधानमा हस्ताक्षर गरेको भन्दै रौतहटमा आन्दोलनकारिहरद्वारा सांसद हरिचरण साहलाई कालोमोसो

Posted by Upendra Mahato on Thursday, November 19, 2015

थारु मधेसी सभा************आज मंसीर ३ गते सप्तरी जिल्लाको सप्तकोशी न.पा. मा तमरा अभियानका संयोजक जय प्रकाश गुप्ता र थार...

Posted by Jay Prakash Gupta on Thursday, November 19, 2015

My deepest admiration in Nepali politics is for Mahant Thakur. A man of utter simplicity, impeccable integrity, Gandhian...

Posted by Prashant Jha on Wednesday, November 18, 2015

I gather:Madhesi Morcha will allow schools till 11 am, allow medicine trucks to reroute through one crossing AND...

Posted by Prashant Jha on Thursday, November 19, 2015

कस्तो अचम्भ आभावाको नाउमा निकै चर्को मूल्य तिरी जे पनि पाउने?अव त काठमान्डौमा रोड जाम पनि हुनथाल्यो|मौकामा चौकाहाल्नेको कमि छैन है!सरकार कता

Posted by Er Satya Narayan Shah on Wednesday, November 18, 2015

इन्धन छैन सहरको बाटो जाम छकरोडौं कमाइ लाख दानमा नाम छ कालोलाई सेतो बनाऔं मीठो याम छ टिप्न जान्नुपर्छ अचेल जताततै दाम छ।

Posted by Guna Raj Luitel on Thursday, November 19, 2015

मलंगवामा बिशाल मसाल जुलूस प्रदर्शन.....आज संयुक्त लोकतान्त्रिक मधेशी मोर्चाद्वारा मलंगवामा बिशाल मसाल जुलूस प्रदर्शन

Posted by Upendra Mahato on Thursday, November 19, 2015

बिशाल मसाल जुलूस प्रदर्शन.....आज संयुक्त लोकतान्त्रिक मधेशी मोर्चाद्वारा बिरगंजमा बिशाल मसाल जुलूस प्रदर्शन

Posted by Upendra Mahato on Thursday, November 19, 2015

जलेश्वरमा बिशाल बिरोध प्रदर्शन....

Posted by Upendra Mahato on Thursday, November 19, 2015

सिंहदरबारको ‘चिया–विस्कुट’ वार्ता र मधेसी नेताको मुस्कान (फोटोफिचर)- See more at: http://www.ratopati.com/news/14292/

Posted by Rato Pati on Wednesday, November 18, 2015

And some of these lawyers happen to be on the rolls of international organisations committed to the cause or justice....

Posted by Prashant Jha on Wednesday, November 18, 2015

सब मिलेर बिरेाध गरैा ।********************प्रधानमन्त्री केपी ओली नेतृत्वको सरकारले मुलुकको गिर्दो अर्थतन्त्रको पर्वाहै...

Posted by C.k. Sah on Thursday, November 19, 2015

नाकाबन्दी बिरुद्ध बैद्य माओवादीले आन्दोलन गर्ने : आजको समाचार...

Posted by Manoj Gajurel on Wednesday, November 18, 2015

मधेश आन्दोलनमा सक्रिय भूमिका निर्वाह गरेका विभिन्न दलका आन्दोलनकारीहरू लाई पार्टीमा स्वागत गर्दै

Posted by सदभावना पार्टी on Wednesday, November 18, 2015

धरहरा यसरी ढलेको थियो। ध्यान दिएर भिडियो हेर्नुस्

Posted by Mysansar on Friday, July 31, 2015

भारतले भन्दा कर्मचारीले सताइराछ अहिले नेपाललाई...आफ्नो कर्मचारी तह लगाउन नसक्ने छ हाम्रो सरकार....भकाभक छान्दै सक्याउनु नि देश द्रोहको अभियोगमा....:@#BeBoldOliGovt

Posted by Anzaan Kumar on Wednesday, November 18, 2015

उपेन्द्र यादव, राजेन्द्र महतो र महन्थ ठाकुरहरुले आफ्नै देशभित्र अधिकारको कुरा गरिरहेका छन् । यस्तो बेलामा एक-दुईवटा गावि...

Posted by सदभावना पार्टी on Wednesday, November 18, 2015

I wrote Forget Kathmandu because my hometown can be self-centred & uncaring. Solidarity with #KTMwithMadhes, who prove Kathmandu does care.

Posted by Manjushree Thapa on Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Sunday, October 18, 2015

बाबुराम र नेपालमा आर्थिक क्रांति

नीतीशले बिहारमा जे गरे, मोदीले गुजरातमा जे गरे, भारत मा जे गर्छु भन्दैछन्, ली कुऑन यु ले सिंगापुर मा जे गरे, डेंग स्याओ पिंग ले चीन मा जे गरे, फिडेल कास्ट्रो ले क्यूबा मा शिक्षा र स्वास्थ्य को क्षेत्रमा जे गरे ----- नेपालमा आर्थिक क्रांति गर्न सिक्नु पर्ने शिक्षक यिनै हुन। मलाई लाग्दैन बाबुराम ले अब अध्ययन थाल्ने हुन। बाबुरामले यी सबैको अध्ययन धेरै पहिले गरिसकेको हुनुपर्छ।

आर्थिक क्रांति वास्तवमा राजनीतिक क्रांति भन्दा सजिलो हो। यद्यपि राजनीतिक क्रांति ले जनता बाट त्याग माग्छ।  आर्थिक क्रांति ले जनता लाई समृद्धि दिन्छ। दुख को कुरा हामी अझै राजनीतिक क्रांति को फेज मा नै छौं।
  • शिक्षा 
  • स्वास्थ्य 
  • Infrastructure
  • Ease Of Doing Business 
  • पारदर्शी र भ्रष्टाचारमुक्त सरकार 
९०% जनता को सुखद भविष्य निजी क्षेत्र को जागीर खाएर हुने हो। देशमा नभए विदेशमा गएर खान्छन्। कम्निष्ट हो, गरीब को बढ़ी चिन्ता छ भने शिक्षा र स्वास्थ्य को क्षेत्र मा क्रांतिकारी रफ्तारमा काम गरेर देखाउ। 

नेपालको विशेष परिस्थितिमा जलबिद्युत भन्नै पर्ने हुन्छ। विश्व बाजार मा पुंजी को अभाव छैन। भने पछि १००% कमी कमजोरी नेपाली पक्ष सँग छ। एउटा दुईटा ठुलो प्रोजेक्ट गर्न सके बाबुरामले संविधान मा लेखेका लामो लिस्ट का अधिकार सब पुरा हुन्छन्। वाक स्वतंत्रता जस्तो अधिकार का लागि सरकार ले पैसा खर्च गर्नु पर्दैन। तर बाबुराम ले लेखेको लामो लिस्टमा पैसा पर्ने अधिकार हरु छन। भने पछि देशले पैसा कमाउनु पर्यो। 

खोला र सुरक्षा बाहेक केही नदिने


Friday, August 21, 2015

३०-३०-३०-१०: केंद्र प्रदेश स्थानीय विशेष

अहिले बजेट १००% केंद्र सँग छ। किनभने देशमा एकात्मक व्यवस्था छ। त्यसलाई ३०-३०-३०-१०: केंद्र प्रदेश स्थानीय विशेष गर्नु उचित होला। अर्थात ३०% केंद्र सरकार सँग रहने। ३०% १६ प्रदेश लाई जनसंख्या समानुपातिक। अर्को ३०% स्थानीय सरकार हरु लाई जनसंख्या समानुपातिक। १०% विशेष क्षेत्र हरु लाई जस मध्ये अधिकांश भाग १० वटा SEC (Special Economic Zones) हरु लाई दिने। यो चीन मा डेंग स्याओ पिंग ले ल्याएको अवधारणा हो।

कमसेकम लगानी गरेर बढ़ी से बढ़ी उत्पादन हुन सक्ने ठाउँ भनेर बिज्ञ हरुको एउटा आयोग बनाएर सुझाव माग्ने। त्यस्ता SEC (Special Economic Zones) हरुमा सरकारले सबै किसिम का सर सहयोग विशेष रुपले पुर्याउने। बाटो, पानी, २४ घंटा बिजुली। बरु सशस्त्र प्रहरी लाई त्यहीँ सुरक्षा का लागि सीमित गरि दिए हुन्छ। सशस्त्र को संख्या घटाएर १०,००० मा पुर्यायो अनि एक एक हजार ती १० वटा SEC (Special Economic Zones) को सुरक्षा का लागि खटायो।

एक पटक SEC (Special Economic Zones) को स्थापना भए पछि move on गर्न पाइन्छ। १० वटा SEC (Special Economic Zones) हरु को निर्माण गर्न ५ वर्ष लाग्ला। त्यस पछि अर्को १० वटा SEC (Special Economic Zones) हरु निर्माण गर्न बजेट खर्च गरे भो।

बाटो, पानी, २४ घंटा बिजुली, सुरक्षा ले मात्र हुँदैन। Policy Framework अत्यंत बिज़नेस friendly हुनुपर्यो। यो शायद नंबर एक कुरा हो।

Federalism, Centripetal Force, Centrifugal Force
संघीयता मा बजेट बाडफाड़: ३३-३३-३४: केन्द्र प्रदेश स्थानीय
१ देश, १६ प्रदेश, २०-३० विशेष क्षेत्र, १००० गाउँ/नगर = १२५ जातजाति
प्रत्यक्ष निर्वाचित वडा अध्यक्ष, मेयर, मुख्य मंत्री र प्रधान मंत्री



'मधेसी मोर्चाको निर्णय आतंकारीको घोषणाजस्तो'
राज्य व्यवस्था समितिले छानबिन गर्ने



बीरगन्जमा आन्दोलनको प्रतिकार
'आन्दोलनकारीको मागप्रति समर्थन भए पनि बिहान र साँझ बजार खोल्न दिनुपर्‍यो,' शर्माले भने, 'हामी पनि हातमा कालोपट्टी लगाएर समर्थन गर्न तयार छौँ ।' लामो बन्दले दैनिक उपभोग्य वस्तुको अभावसमेत खडकिएको उनले बताए । यसअघि बन्दकर्ताले विगतका सम्झौता कार्यान्वयन नगरी मधेसीको अधिकार कुण्ठित गर्ने प्रमुख ४ दलका नेताको प्रतीकात्मक शव प्रदर्शन गरेका थिए । .... बाजागाजासहित निस्केको शव जुलुस नगर परिक्रमा गरी घण्टाघरमा कोणसभामा परिणत भएको थियो । अधिकारका लागि विगत ७ दिनदेखि जनता सडकमा उत्रिए पनि सरकारले बेवास्ता गरेकाले मलामी जुलुस निकालेको संयुक्त लोकतान्त्रिक मधेसी मोर्चाका प्रदीप यादवले बताए ।


किन लेखिन्छ 'मधेश सरकार’?
०६३ सालको माघमा भएको पहिलो मधेश विद्रोताका मधेशका सदरमुकामहरुमा त सरकारी कार्यलयको जम्मै वोर्डहरुमा नेपाल सरकारको ठाउमा मधेशीहरुले मधेश सरकार लेखि दिएका थिए । जो धेरै पछि सम्म त्यसै थिए । विस्तारै पुन उक्त ठाउमा फेरी नेपाल सरकार उल्लेख गरियो । त्यसलाई आधार बनाएर काठमाडौमा दजौनौ पटक तराई मधेश लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टीका अध्यक्ष महन्थ ठाकुरले त्यसलाई संघियता संग जोडेर भाषण पनि गरे । ठाकुरले पुर्व देखि पश्चिम सम्मका मधेशीहरुले आन्दोलनको क्रममा ठाउ ठाउमा मधेश सरकार लेखेको भन्दै मधेशको मुख्य माग एक मधेश प्रदेश भएको दाबी गर्थे । ...... सदभावना पार्टीले स्थापना काल देखि नै अपना शासन, अपना प्रशासन, अपना न्यालय, अपना विद्याँलय ।

Monday, July 06, 2015

Geopolitics भन्ने शब्द

English: Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singa...
English: Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, being escorted by United States Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld through an honour cordon and into the Pentagon. They met to discuss bilateral security issues including the war on terrorism: see DefenseLINK news photos. US Department of Defense (). Retrieved on . (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Deng Xiaoping
Deng Xiaoping (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Politics is like Physics, राजनीति पनि एउटा विज्ञानं नै हो। चन्द्रमा पृथ्वी वरिपरि घुम्छ, पृथ्वी सुर्य वरिपरि घुम्छ। That is gravity. नेपाल भनेको चन्द्रमा भन्दा पनि सानो। भारत भनेको जुपिटर, नेपाल भनेको जुपिटर को एउटा चन्द्रमा। नेपालको यथार्थ: नेपाल भुपरिबेष्टित होइन भारत-परिवेष्टित देश। काठमाण्डु उपत्यका को उत्तर मा शिवपुरी पहाड़ यथार्थ हो। It is reality, whether you like it or not. भारत नेपालको यथार्थ हो।

There is no escaping the laws of gravity. उफ्फ गुरुत्वाकर्षण भनेर चन्द्रमा ले शिकायत गर्न सुहाउँछ? तर त्यति बुझ्ने एउटा सानो अंतरिक्ष यान पनि पृथ्वी बाट मंगल ग्रह पुग्न सक्छ।

चन्द्रमा को गुरुत्वाकर्षण ले पृथ्वीमा समुन्द्रमा high tide, low tide भइराखेको हुन्छ ---- त्यस बारे शिकायत गर्ने? कि त्यस बाट बिजुली पैदा गर्ने?

मोदी प्रत्येक चार वर्ष मा एक पटक निर्वाचन ले दिने व्यक्ति होइन। यो एउटा rare मान्छे हो। Deng XiaopingLee Kuan Yew टु इन वन। भारतको यथार्थ लाई आत्मसात गर्दै, मोदी आएको कुराको फाइदा लिँदै नेपालमा आर्थिक विकास को कुरा सोँच्ने हो। तर बामे जस्ताले जसलाई "राष्ट्रियता" भन्छन (अर्को छ त्यस्तै जोकर नारायण काजी) त्यसलाई मोदीले "trust deficit" भन्छन ----- "Trust Deficit जितना कम होगा काम उतना जल्दी जल्दी होगा!" मोदीले भनेको। मोदीले पहिलो भ्रमण मा नै $1 Billion दिएको ---- सुशील ले त्यो छोएको पनि छैन। कस्तो अचम्म!

मैले केही अगाडि भने ----- नेपाल लाई सिक्किम बनाउनु पर्छ भनेर --- ख्याल ख्याल भनेको होइन --- it was not a rhetorical statement. सार्बभौमसत्ता नेपाली जनतामा छ भने नेपाली जनतालाई जनमत संग्रह का माध्यमले भारतको अर्को राज्य बन्ने अधिकार छ कि छैन? बिलकुल छ। सार्बभौमसत्ता जनतामा हुनुको परिभाषा नै त्यही हो। होइन भने भारत अमेरिका जस्तो बन्ने अनि नेपाल अझै दुई चार पुस्ता हेटी भएर बस्ने ठुलो संभावना छ।

बीपी देखि प्रचंड सम्मले नेपालमा खुट्टा टेक्ने ठाउँ नहुँदा भारतको भुमि प्रयोग गरेका हुन। त्यो प्रयोगले नेपालको राजनीति अगाडि बढ्यो।

बिहार १० करोड़ जनसंख्या ले ४० वटा MP पाएको छ दिल्लीमा ---- नेपाल ले ३ करोड़ को हिसाबले १३ वटा जति पाउने भो। राम्रै प्रतिनिधित्व हुन्छ। खस हरु नेपालमा भन्दा भारतमा बढ़ी छन। नेपाली भाषा साहित्य नेपालमा भन्दा भारतमा बढ़ी विकसित छ। नेपाली हरु को संख्या नेपाल सेनामा भन्दा भारत सेनामा बढ़ी छ।

नेपाल अलग देश हुँदा भारत ले नेपाल मा हस्तक्षेप गर्ने एकतर्फी छ ---- एउटै देश हो भने त नेपालका MP ले भारत हाँक्ने भो। Counter हस्तक्षेप। चन्द्रमा ले पृथ्वीमा high tide ल्याए जस्तो।

मुख्य कुरा त आर्थिक विकास हो। एकीकरण को फाइदा आर्थिक विकास।

भारत भनेको एउटा देश भन्दा पनि महादेश हो। European Union जस्तो। पुर्वी युरोप का देश हरु EU join गर्न तछाडमछाड गर्छन। EU ले political union गर्ने पनि इच्छा राखेको छ। गर्ने क्षमता नभएर नगरेको।

नेपाली राजनीति र भारत
भारतीय दुतावास कुन नेता जाँदैनन् : अमरेशकुमार


Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Fundamental Microfinance

English: Roadside billboard of Deng Xiaoping a...
English: Roadside billboard of Deng Xiaoping at the entrance of the Lychee Park in Shenzhen (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I am a huge fan of microfinance. But it has to be reimagined. It is one of the three basic ingredients, the other two being education and health.

A country like Nepal can not afford to only educate the kids, although it currently does a poor enough job of that as well. But adult education has to step in. You use the same school buildings, but perhaps in the evenings and during weekends, for adult education. Everyone, child or adult, needs at least 10 years of schooling. And you should be able to pick up no matter where you left. And you should have the option to move at your own pace sometimes. Perhaps you put FM radio to use. People could tune in at a certain time of the day to listen into lessons. There is one frequency for the first grade, another for the second grade and so on. Lessons should be available in your primary language. The Chinese have proven beyond doubt that you don't have to learn English first before the world opens up for you.

People like Mao and Fidel Castro have done impressive work in basic health. You provide basic training to a large number of workers who then fan out to where the needs might be. There is a fundamental need to take up this work with revolutionary zeal.

But a left leaning country like Nepal where even the so-called right of center party like the Congress calls itself "socialist" sometimes tends to not grasp entrepreneurship well. You can educate your people all you want, you can turn them into fighting shape in terms of health, but unless you can create jobs for them they are going to rust with disuse. You are going to pump up a population that is all ready with nowhere go to.

Left leaning political leaders should cultivate a healthy respect for entrepreneurs who might be millionaires. They are like hens that lay the golden egg. You don't kill those hens. You don't get in their way. When they create more wealth for themselves, they pay more in taxes. You can use that tax money to serve the poor all you want.

But then entrepreneurship goes way beyond people who establish and run big factories. Small businesses are all the rage. Even in a country like America the vast majority of new jobs get created by small businesses.

And then there are micro businesses. I am talking raising goats to sell, or cultivating vegetables to sell, small businesses that you could start with a hundred dollar loan. Access to credit should be like a right, just like basic education and health.

But then sometimes it is hard to create any meaningful business with just a hundred dollars. China does not have a track record in microfinance, but it has lifted more people out of poverty than anyone else. And they have done that by creating jobs at large scales through large scale factories.

Very few rich people choose to become entrepreneurs. I like to say being an entrepreneur is kind of like being gay. It is assumed perhaps one per cent of the population is biologically gay. So if very few rich people are entrepreneurs, it is erroneous to think all poor people are inclined to entrepreneurship.

Another dimension to microfinance would be that you would have something like a right to a hundred dollars in business loans every year, but you would also have the option to pool your resources. So 100 individuals should have the option to bring together 100 dollars each into a pool of 10,000 dollars for a one per cent share each in an enterprise led by one entrepreneur who perhaps ends up employing most or all of those 100 people.

If you make room for the fact that 5-10% of those loans will fail that you will happily write off, I think that could create a lot of small business action. And you will end up with a lot of workers who are also part owners in enterprises. That is key. Deng Xiaoping started by letting Chinese farmers own small plots of land. The sense of ownership is key. The right to property is a fundamental human right, like free speech. And the act of exercising free speech takes some practice.

Completely state owned enterprises are not simply failed Soviet era ideas. Modi proved in Gujrat they can outperform the market if they are kept free of political interference and are allowed to run on meritocratic guidelines. It makes sense for some companies and some enterprises to be 100% state owned. As long as they perform is all that matters. What is dead weight is companies that are state owned and run losses year after year.

You can also have companies that are partly owned by the state. You can have companies that are partly owned by foreign investors.

There is no one size fits all. The key point is entrepreneurship has to be nurtured. It has to be allowed to flourish. There does not seem to be only a left or right way of doing it. State owned enterprises can work. Private companies can fail. Small business owners can create jobs. Large companies can stagnate. The job market is and should be a dynamic situation. As long as the cat catches mice is all that matters.
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Tuesday, August 20, 2013

A 30 Year Gameplan For Nepal

Deng Xiaoping
Deng Xiaoping (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
(written for Vishwa Sandesh)

A 30 Year Gameplan For Nepal
By Paramendra Bhagat (www.paramendra.com)

It is possible for Nepal to become a developed nation in less than 30 years from now. China started running hard around 1980 when the pragmatist Deng Xiaoping took over. A few years from now China will have become a bigger economy than America, adjusted for purchasing power. Nitish has been Chief Minister of Bihar for less than 10 years and Bihar has become unrecognizable. His formula is simple: basic law and order, basic infrastructure, a check on corruption from the top.

Secularism is an achievement. Ending the monarchy is an achievement. Democracy is an achievement. Federalism is an achievement. A constitution written by elected representatives is an achievement. But Nepal has become what Bihar used to be notorious for. The law and order situation is very weak. Both petty crime and organized crime have taken root in the country over the past few years. Once a constitution is in place and there are duly elected representatives at all levels of government the law and order situation should improve, but it will not happen on its own. The political will has to be there.

India is not growing as fast as it was growing only a few years back. China also has slowed down. But this slowdown is temporary. Nepal is lucky to be situated between India and China. All it has to do is get the basics right – basic law and order, basic infrastructure – and it will start moving ahead fast just for being sandwiched between India and China.

Hydro is the top sector. All the political leadership has to do is provide basic law and order and put in place the right policy framework that is super friendly to foreign direct investment (FDI). Once you get those right that will also work wonders for the tourism sector. Looks like all the government of Nepal has to do is provide law and order and then get the hell out of the way. Although there is plenty of potential for agriculture as well as industrialization, a country like Nepal should learn from the mistakes of the west and seek the benefits of organic farming and clean energy fueled smart industrialization. Smart industrialization is one where software is used every step of the way.

The Terai is the bread basket. It also houses the major industrial centers in the country. But the hills and mountains can grow food items that the Terai can not: apples and oranges come to mind, tea and coffee come to mind. With the right infrastructure Udaypur, Chitwan, and Surkhet could all be major industrial hubs. With good roads, electricity and broadband industrialization can be taken to remote hill and mountain locations.

But the biggest long term focus has to be on the service sector. Tourism, finance and software come to mind. And there you have to invest in people if you want to do well as a country. You invest in education, and you invest in health. There I really like what they did in Cuba. If Nepal could learn to emulate law and order from Bihar, and the utter friendliness to FDI from China, and make major strides on basic education and basic health like Cuba under Castro, or like Bihar under Nitish Kumar, double digit growth rates can be taken for granted.

If Prachanda is the next Prime Minister of Nepal (no matter who it is I foresee a coalition government in the country for a long, long time) I would hope he helps brings about the constitution in a hurry, works hard on basic law and order – put an end to the mafia raj – and pulls a double whammy of enacting a FDI-friendly policy framework while investing in human capital on a war footing. Do what they did in Kerala: give the country a 100% literacy rate. Only don’t repeat the business mistakes of Kerala. Or all your educated people will end up in Dubai.

We live in a global world. The first few waves of FDI that China started receiving after it started opening up in 1980 mostly came from the Chinese diaspora. There is a lesson for Nepal there. Offering dual citizenship to Non Resident Nepalis is a no brainer. Do it. Make it happen. That is one of the most FDI friendly moves the country can make. India is doing it, and they are glad they are doing it. Take a look and see it is working wonders.

At the high end you make it possible for companies to create wealth. Those companies pay taxes. With that money you invest in education and health and credit for everybody. You have to take care of that entire loop, and keep expanding the cake. Deng Xiaoping understood that. It is good to aspire to be rich, he said. He did not say, let’s hang the rich.

Manmohan Singh opened up India as Finance Minister around 1991. Only a few years back India was looking at near double digit growth rates. Nitish has done one better in Bihar. He has exceeded China’s growth rates. And Bihar is a poor, land locked, flood prone state. There is light at the end of the tunnel for Nepal.
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