Showing posts with label 2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2013. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Monday, November 25, 2013
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Projected Seats
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| English: This picture used to represent the Nepali Congress. This Picture based on Nepali Congress.png (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
UML 205
Maoist 94
Kamal Thapa 33
RPP 16
Gachhedar 11
TMLP 10
Others 7
Nominated 26
The arithmetic makes a NC-Maoist, and a UML-Maoist government possible, not to say a NC-UML government. And the identity federalists might have dipped below the one third mark. That might bring forth some interesting tug of war on the federalism question. The Panche parties have done so much better than the Madhesi parties. Go figure.
The Madhesi parties have but one option: become one party or perish.
Good Options For Maoists And Madhesi Parties
A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML
Election 2013: The People Have Spoken
Thursday, November 21, 2013
A Majority Government Of The NC And The UML
Looks like the NC and the UML are on their way to forming a two party government. That will be interesting to watch. The two are neck and neck right now. So there's no telling who will be Prime Minister.
But the two parties will not get a two thirds majority. And so that leaves plenty of room for the identity federalists to have a say on the question. The two sides of the debate should fully express themselves, and then they should forge a compromise.
It would be best for the peace process if the NC and the UML acted generous and elected Prachanda as the president. Or they might go ahead and give Ram Baran Yadav another term! If the PM and DPM will be Pahadi, might as well have a Madhesi president.
Local and state elections have to be held by April 2015. If the Maoists and the Madhesi parties do their homework and learn their lessons, the electoral pendulum might swing their way then.
What homework can they do?
Prachanda and the Maoists to not have the option to get out of the process now. In that direction lies a dead end. They should continue to be part of the process. It is true that the status quoists in the bureaucracy and the judiciary have been staunchly against the identity federalists, and messing up with the list of voters was one rabbit they pulled out of the hat. The Maoists and the Madhesi parties might still have lost, but the margin of loss would not have been so dramatic.
Hridayesh Tripathy's radically gerrymandered electoral district is proof the Election Commission is status quoist.
There is still a stark need for a Truth And Reconciliation Commission so we can put the Civil War firmly behind us. That is necessary work.
The two Maoist parties should unite. And the recipe for that unity would be an attempt to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded political parties. That would be a welcome attempt at classlessness. That move would turn Nepal into the top democracy on the planet, that also would signal that there is no more revolution in the future, there are only elections.
All the Madhesi parties should become one political party. To sing the song of One Madhesh, One Pradesh is hypocritical when you are split up into 30 different parties. And the way to do that is to organize a unity convention. If this move is made, that unified Madhesi party will do well in elections that will surely take place in over a year. That is not far.
The most important task right now is to give the country a constitution within a year. To that end all political parties must work, winners and losers alike. Electoral tally aside we are all winners. The country is about to get a legislative and an executive. The political vacuum is about to go away.
It is to be seen if Sushil Koirala or Jhalanath Khanal becomes Prime Minister. The two get the PM and the DPM and the cabinet. It would be generous to give the presidency to Prachanda or to Mahantha Thakur. That would make constitution making smoother. Because you still need a two thirds majority for the sticky issues. It would be smart for Prachanda to propose Mahantha Thakur's name. In a democracy, the majority rules, but it does not get to rub the nose of the minority in the dust.
I have a feeling we might be headed towards four states each in the Terai and the Hills. There is a danger the NC and the UML might overplay their hands and misread their simple majority for a two thirds majority, and we might end up seeing street action. That would be unfortunate. Compromise has to be the name of the game. Neither side will get all it wants. That knowledge has to be the starting point of the negotiations.
Also give six of the 26 nominated seats to the Baidya Maoists. That was a profound idea Prachanda came up with before the elections. That would be a small price to pay to keep the two Maoists part of the process.
But the two parties will not get a two thirds majority. And so that leaves plenty of room for the identity federalists to have a say on the question. The two sides of the debate should fully express themselves, and then they should forge a compromise.
It would be best for the peace process if the NC and the UML acted generous and elected Prachanda as the president. Or they might go ahead and give Ram Baran Yadav another term! If the PM and DPM will be Pahadi, might as well have a Madhesi president.
Local and state elections have to be held by April 2015. If the Maoists and the Madhesi parties do their homework and learn their lessons, the electoral pendulum might swing their way then.
What homework can they do?
Prachanda and the Maoists to not have the option to get out of the process now. In that direction lies a dead end. They should continue to be part of the process. It is true that the status quoists in the bureaucracy and the judiciary have been staunchly against the identity federalists, and messing up with the list of voters was one rabbit they pulled out of the hat. The Maoists and the Madhesi parties might still have lost, but the margin of loss would not have been so dramatic.
Hridayesh Tripathy's radically gerrymandered electoral district is proof the Election Commission is status quoist.
There is still a stark need for a Truth And Reconciliation Commission so we can put the Civil War firmly behind us. That is necessary work.
The two Maoist parties should unite. And the recipe for that unity would be an attempt to turn Nepal into a multi-party democracy of state funded political parties. That would be a welcome attempt at classlessness. That move would turn Nepal into the top democracy on the planet, that also would signal that there is no more revolution in the future, there are only elections.
All the Madhesi parties should become one political party. To sing the song of One Madhesh, One Pradesh is hypocritical when you are split up into 30 different parties. And the way to do that is to organize a unity convention. If this move is made, that unified Madhesi party will do well in elections that will surely take place in over a year. That is not far.
The most important task right now is to give the country a constitution within a year. To that end all political parties must work, winners and losers alike. Electoral tally aside we are all winners. The country is about to get a legislative and an executive. The political vacuum is about to go away.
It is to be seen if Sushil Koirala or Jhalanath Khanal becomes Prime Minister. The two get the PM and the DPM and the cabinet. It would be generous to give the presidency to Prachanda or to Mahantha Thakur. That would make constitution making smoother. Because you still need a two thirds majority for the sticky issues. It would be smart for Prachanda to propose Mahantha Thakur's name. In a democracy, the majority rules, but it does not get to rub the nose of the minority in the dust.
I have a feeling we might be headed towards four states each in the Terai and the Hills. There is a danger the NC and the UML might overplay their hands and misread their simple majority for a two thirds majority, and we might end up seeing street action. That would be unfortunate. Compromise has to be the name of the game. Neither side will get all it wants. That knowledge has to be the starting point of the negotiations.
Also give six of the 26 nominated seats to the Baidya Maoists. That was a profound idea Prachanda came up with before the elections. That would be a small price to pay to keep the two Maoists part of the process.
Tuesday, January 01, 2013
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