यसरी भयो सत्ता गठबन्धनको सिट बाँडफाँट हालसम्म नेपाली कांग्रेसले ८३ सिट, नेकपा माओवादी केन्द्रले ३६ सिट, नेकपा एकीकृत समाजवादीले १४ सिट, जनता समाजवादी पार्टीले १३ सिट र राष्ट्रिय जनमोर्चाले २ सिट लिने सहमति भएको ........ अहिले १७ क्षेत्रमा दोहोरो तेहरो दाबी कायमै छ । ...... यस्तै जनता समाजवादी पार्टीले १३ सिट पाउने तय भइसकेको छ । जसमा धनुषा ३ महोत्तरी ३ जसपाले पाउनुपर्ने क्षेत्रमा कांग्रेसले दाबी गरेकाले सहमति भएको छैन । रुपन्देही १ जसपाले पाउनुपर्ने क्षेत्रमा माओवादीले दाबी गरेकाले सहमती हुन नसकेको हो । .
सत्ता गठबन्धन : यी हुन् जसपाले पाउने निर्वाचन क्षेत्र जसपाले सुनसरी १, सप्तरी, १, सिरहा ४, महोत्तरी ४, सर्लाही १, रौतहट ३, बारा २, बारा ३, पर्सा १ र २, काठमाडौं ७, बाँक र सप्तरी २ पाउने सहमति भएको छ । ....... जसपाले धनुषा ३ मा समेत दाबी गरेपनि कांग्रेसले पनि दाबी छाडेको छैन । यस्तै महोत्तरी ३ र रुपन्देही १ मा जसपासँगै माओवादीको पनि दाबी छ। .
निर्वाचन खर्च विवरण र आयोगको ‘रकमी’ निर्णय निर्वाचन आयोगले स्थानीय निर्वाचनमा सहभागी भएका १ लाख २३ हजार ६ सय ५० जना उम्मेदवारहरुलाई निर्वाचनको खर्च विवरण बुझाउन नसकेको कारणले जरिवाना गरेको छ । र,त्यसबाट २४ अरब ६३ करोड ८८ लाख रूपियाँ असुल उपर हुने बताएको छ । ........ निर्वाचन आयोग यी सबैका लागि विज्ञप्ति वा सूचना मात्रको तरीका प्रयोग गरेको छ,जसले सम्बन्धितलाई जानकारी र त्यसपछि सफाईको पर्याप्त मौका दिने आयोगको नियत नरहेको र जरिवाना नै गर्ने भन्ने भित्री मनसाय रहेको दर्शाउँछ । ...... सम्बन्धित ऐनको दफा २६ को उपदफा (४) मा ‘उपदफा (१) वा (२) बमोजिम जरिवाना गर्नु वा उपदफा (३) बमोजिम निर्णय गर्नुअघि आयोगले सम्बन्धित राजनीतिक दल वा व्यक्तिलाई आफ्नो सफाई पेश गर्ने मनासिब मौका दिनु पर्नेछ’ भन्ने व्यवस्था छ । ....... यस्तो कदमले हुनेखाने,धूर्तहरुको स्थानीय तहमा पकड बढाउने र सामान्य जनताको पहुँच टाढिने कार्य भएको जस्तो लाग्दछ । ........ ऐनको दफा २६ मा निर्वाचनमा निर्धारित हदभन्दा बढी खर्च गरेमा सजाय गरिने व्यवस्था छ । तर,निर्वाचन आयोगले निर्वाचनको क्रममा वा खर्च विवरण प्राप्त भएपछि कसैले निर्धारित हदभन्दा बढी खर्च गरेको,नगरेको जाँच गर्ने वा त्यसो गर्नेलाई सजाय गर्ने कार्यलाई महत्व दिएको छैन । त्यस्तो जाँच गर्ने कुनै क्रियाविधि रहेको जानकारीमा छैन । ...... वास्तवमा उम्मेदवार निर्वाचनको बेलामा बढी खर्च गरिरहेको छ,छैन त्यस्को प्रभावकारी अनुगमनको एहसास पनि जनतालाई कहिल्यै भएको छैन । यस्तो लाग्छ,निर्वाचन आयोग हदभन्दा बढी खर्चको बारेमा खास ध्यान दिन नै चाहँदैन । ......
भारतमा टीएन शेषनको पालादेखि गरिएको सुधार भारतीय निर्वाचनबाट धेरै कुरितिहरू हटाउन सफल भयो । चाहना राखियो भने,यहाँका बेथितिहरु पनि नियन्त्रण गर्न सकिन्छ ।
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४० वर्षअघिको डा. मीना आचार्यको त्यो साहस सन् २००९ को नोबेल पुरस्कार हो । सो वर्ष अर्थशास्त्रमा नोबेल पुरस्कार एलेनर ओष्ट्रमले पाउनुभएको हो । उहाँ पोलिटिकल साइन्टिस्ट हुनुहुन्छ । उहाँले नेपालको ट्रेडिसनल सिस्टम अफ फरेस्टी म्यानेजमेन्ट, पानी, सिंचाई जस्ता विषयमा ठूलो रिसर्च गर्नुभयो । उहाँले आफ्नो नोबल रिटरेचरमा पनि ‘यो पुरस्कारको मुख्य हकदार त नेपाली किसान हुन्’ भन्नुभएको रहेछ । ........ कौडीको मोलमा संस्थान बेचियो । औद्योगीकरण सखाप भयो भन्ने एउटा न्यारेटिभ ३० वर्षदेखि जमेर बसेको छ । हामीले अलिकति खोतलेर हेर्यौँ । महेश आचार्यले २०४८ सालमा बजेट ल्याउँदा २६ अर्बको बजेट रहेछ । राजस्व साढे १३ अर्ब रहेछ । विदेशी ऋण र अनुदान साढे ८ अर्ब, साधारण खर्च १० अर्ब र विकास खर्च १६ अर्ब रहेछ । पञ्चायतको अन्त्य हुँदा सावाँ तथा ब्याज भुक्तानीमा साधारण खर्चको ४० प्रतिशत रकम सकिने गरेको रहेछ । अर्थात ३ अर्ब ८० करोड रुपैयाँ बजेट विनियोजन गरिएको रहेछ । राजा विरेन्द्रको राज्याभिषेक हुँदा कुल गार्हस्थ उत्पादनमा ऋणको अनुपात ३ प्रतिशत रहेछ । र, पञ्चायत ढल्दा यस्तो अनुपात ४३ प्रतिशत रहेछ । ........ त्यतिबेला ६४ वटा सार्वजनिक संस्थानहरू रहेछन् । साढे १३ अर्ब रुपैयाँ राजस्व अनुमान गरिएकोमा त्यसमध्ये १ अर्ब रुपैयाँ ती ६१ वटा सार्वजनिक संस्थानहरुको घाटा पूर्तिमा खर्च हुने रहेछ । ........ आज पनि कौडीको मोलमा संस्थान बेचियो, ध्वस्त भयो । ५० लाख मान्छे बाहिर गए मात्रै भनियो । ...... अहिले पनि एमसीसीमा त्यस्तै रडाको भयो । पास भएको भोलिपल्टदेखि चाइँचुइँ नै छैन ।
राष्ट्रपतिबाट संविधानलाई भष्म पार्ने प्रयास संविधानले भन्छ, राष्ट्रपति स्वयम् पनि कानूनको परिधिमा बाँधिएर बस्नुपर्दछ । राष्ट्रपतिको काम, कर्तव्य र अधिकारमा संविधानको पालना र यसको संरक्षण गर्नुपर्ने कुरा लेखेको छ । ....... संसद्ले बनाएको कानून के राष्ट्रपतिले बेवास्ता गर्न सक्ने यो संविधान बनेको हो त ? ...... संसद्ले कानून बनाएर सभामुखले प्रमाणित गरेर राष्ट्रपतिकोमा पठाउने संविधानको धारा ११३ मा उल्लेख छ । त्यहाँ राष्ट्रपतिलाई यो अधिकार छ कि संसदबाट प्रमाणिकरणका निम्ति आएको विधेयकलाई पुनःविचार गर्नुपर्ने विषय छ भन्ने लागेमा राष्ट्रपतिले १५ दिनभित्र पुनःविचार गर्नका लागि सन्देशसहित फिर्ता पठाउन पाउने अधिकार छ । राष्ट्रपतिलाई प्राप्त यो अधिकार असीमित अधिकार होइन । यो जतिखेर मन लाग्यो, त्यतिखेर आफ्नो खुसी प्रयोग गर्नसक्ने यो अधिकार होइन । ....... अर्को पटक दोहोर्याएर संसद्ले, त्यही रुपमा वा संशोधनसहित पठाएपछि प्रमाणीकरण गर्नुपर्छ भनेर संविधानमा उल्लेख छ । ...... यदि संसद्ले दोहोर्याएर पठाएको कानूनलाई प्रमाणीकरण नगर्नु र निष्क्रिय बस्नु भनेको संविधान प्रदत्त राष्ट्रपतिको काम र अधिकारको पालना भएन । संसद् र राष्ट्रपतिको अधिकार, नियम, कानून र संविधानले जे तोकेको छ । राष्ट्रपति पनि र संसद् पनि अनुशासनमा बसेनन् भने समस्या आउँछ । त्यही भएर अहिले संकट आएको हो । ...... हाम्रो संविधानले कुनै पनि कानूनको विषय संविधानसँग बाझिएको विषय छ कि छैन भन्ने कुरालाई हेर्नका लागि राष्ट्रपतिलाई केही अधिकार दिएको छ त ? भन्ने प्रश्न राखेर हेर्ने हो भने त्यो अधिकार राष्ट्रपतिलाई छैन । तर, त्यो अधिकार संविधानको धारा १३३ मा सर्वोच्च अदालतको असाधारण अधिकार क्षेत्रमा रहेको छ । ........ कानूनलाई एउटा अंगले प्रस्ताव गर्ने, अर्को अंगले कानून निर्माण गर्ने र अर्को अंगले यो कानून संविधानले जनतालाई प्रदत्त गरेको मौलिक अधिकारसँग बाझिन्छ कि बाझिदैन भने हेर्ने विषय अर्को अंगले गर्दछ । यो शक्ति सन्तुलन र नियन्त्रणको सिद्धान्तमा तीनवटा अंगले आआफ्नो ढंगले बनाउनुपर्ने कानून र कानूनमा अन्तरनिहीत संवैधानिकताको प्रश्न हो । ....... यसलाई हेर्ने सर्वोच्च अदालतको भूमिकालाई पनि बेवास्ता गरेर राष्ट्रपतिले आफैंले गर्ने भनेको त्यो संविधान विपरीतको काम हो । ....... २००९ सालबाट नेपालमा नागरिकता दिन सुरु गरिएको हो । यस अनुसार अहिले ७० वर्ष पुगेको छ । यो अवधिमा आजभन्दा तीन वर्ष अगाडिको तथ्याङ्कमा नेपालमा २ करोड २१ लाख नेपाली जनताले नागरिकताको प्रमाणपत्र पाएको उल्लेख छ । त्यसमध्ये २ करोड १५ लाख वंशजको आधारमा नागरिकता पाएका छन् । ...... अहिले वैवाहिक नागरिकताको विषयमा एउटा हातमा नागरिकता अर्को हातमा सिन्दुर भन्ने जुन हल्ला छ नि, त्यो हल्ला निराधार हो भन्ने कुरा त्यसबेलै प्रष्ट भएको हो । ७० वर्षको अवधिमा ८० वटा मुलुकबाट विदेशी महिलाले नेपाली नागरिकसँग विवाह गरेर प्राप्त गरेको वैवाहिक अंगीकृत नागरिकताको संख्या ३ लाख ९० हजार हाराहारीमा छ । यो संख्या अहिले ४ लाख पुगेको देखिन्छ । ...... ३ वर्ष अगाडिसम्मको जन्मसिद्ध नागरिकता १ लाख ९० हजार मानिसले पाएका छन् । तर तिनको छोरा, छोरीलाई नागरिता छैन । पढेका छन्, रोजगारीमा जान पाएका छैनन्, सिमकार्डसमेत पाएका छैनन् ।
आमाको नागरिकता छ, बुबाको नागरिकता छ तर छोराछोरीको छैन ।
........ ७० वर्षको अवधिमा ८० वटा देशबाट वैवाहिक अंगीकृत नागरिकता पाउनेको संख्या भनेको ३ लाख ९० हजार हो । त्यो भनेको बिहार, आसाम, सिक्किम, दार्जीलिङ, खर्साङ, तिब्बतबाट आउने पनि त्यति नै हो । .......... आफ्नो दुई तिहाई नजिकको बहुमत हुँदा संसद्मा ६ महिनासम्म विधेयक रोकेर राख्ने । अनि संसद् विघटन गर्ने वित्तिकै वैवाहिक नागरिकताको विषयमा नबोली फेरि अध्यादेश ल्याउने दोहोरो, तेहोरो चरित्र देखाएर अहिले संवैधानिक अवरोधको अवस्था निर्माण गर्न खोजिएको छ ।
मधेसको मामिलामा एमाले, कांग्रेस र माओवादी उस्तै हुन् जनतासँग म्यान्डेट लिएर आएपछि मात्र जसपासँग गठबन्धन हुन्छ : जितेन्द्र सोनल ........ लोसपाकै थुप्रै नेता एमालेमा गइसकेका छन् । तैपनि चुनावी गठबन्धनका लागि एमालेसँग वार्तामा लोसपा जुटेको छ । ...... एकातिर विचार मिल्नेसँग गठबन्धन भइरहेको छ भने अर्कोतिर जोसँग विचार मिलिरहेको छैन, ती दलसँग मिलेर चुनाव जित्ने गरी गठबन्धन भइरहेको छ । ....... २०७४ को स्थानीय चुनावमा कांग्रेस र माओवादीबीच गठबन्धन थियो भने प्रतिनिधिसभा र प्रदेशसभाको चुनावमा एमाले र माओवादी केन्द्रबीच गठबन्धन भएको थियो । त्यहाँ विचार र सिद्धान्तको कुरा रहेन, चुनाव कसरी जित्ने भन्ने लक्ष्यसहितको गठबन्धन बनेको थियो । लोसपाले दुई वटा कुरालाई साथमा लिएर हिँडिरहेको छ । एमालेसँग विचार नमिले पनि चुनाव जित्ने रणनीतिका साथ गठबन्धन गर्न लागिएको हो । .......... नागरिकताको कुरा गर्ने हो भने २०७७ मा नागरिकताको विषय एमालेले अध्यादेश ल्याएर त्यसको समस्या समाधान गर्ने प्रयास गरेको थियो । राष्ट्रपतिले त्यसलाई प्रमाणीकरण पनि गर्नुभएको थियो तर त्यसलाई अदालतले रोक्यो । हाम्रै आग्रहमा एमालेले त्यो अध्यादेश ल्याएको थियो । त्यसलाई मधेसप्रति कसरी नकारात्मक भन्ने ? एमालेले हाम्रो १३९ वटा मुद्दा फिर्ता गरिदिएको थियो । त्यसलाई मधेसप्रति कसरी नकारात्मक भन्ने ? तर जो अहिले आफूलाई मधेसको हितैषी भनिरहेका छन्, उनीहरुले हाम्रो एउटा पनि मुद्दा फिर्ता गरिदिएनन् । हामीले गरेको मागमध्ये एउटा पनि पूरा गर्दिएनन् । ......... मधेस आन्दोलनमा त्यत्रो दमन भयो, त्यो दमन कसको नेतृत्वमा भयो भन्ने सबैलाई थाहा छ । पहिलो मधेस आन्दोलन हुँदा गिरिजाप्रसाद कोइराला प्रधानमन्त्री हुनुहुन्थ्यो भने गृहमन्त्री कृष्ण सिटौला हुनुहुन्थ्यो । ........ काठमाडौंमा ठूला राजनीतिक दलले मधेसलाई हेर्ने दृष्टिकोण बराबर छ । ....... नेपाली कांग्रेसले हाम्रो धेरै समयलाई खेर फाल्यो । प्रधानमन्त्री शेरबहादुर देउवा स्वयंले नै लोसपासँग गठबन्धन गर्छौं भन्नुभयो र हामीलाई बालुवाटारमा बोलाएर पटकपटक वार्ता गर्नुभयो । हामीलाई गठबन्धनमा लिनुस् भनेर हामी कहिल्यै गएनौं । कांग्रेसले छलफलका लागि बोलाएपछि हामी गएका थियौैं । कांग्रेससँग कुराकानी चलिरहेको बेला एमालेसँग कुरा गर्नुहुँदैन । कुरा गरिरहने तर त्यसलाई परिणाममा नपु¥याउने कांग्रेसको रणनीति हामीले थाहा पायौं अनि हामी त्यहाँबाट निस्कियौं । त्यसपछि एमालेका अध्यक्ष केपी शर्मा ओलीको प्रस्ताव आयो । त्यसमा हामी सकारात्मक भयौं र अहिले वार्ता भइरहेका छन् । ........ मधेसमा तत्कालीन संघीय समाजवादी र राजपाको गठबन्धनले जति सिट जितेको छ, त्यसमा हाम्रो दावी रहन्छ । त्यतिबेला गठबन्धनबाट हामीले १९ वटा सिट जितेका थियौं । त्यो सिट हामीलाई चाहिन्छ । जति बाँकी रहन्छ, ती सिट एमालेले लिनुपर्छ भन्ने हाम्रो दाबी छ । ........ राष्ट्रपति र एमाले फरक फरक चिज हुन् । एमाले एउटा पार्टी हो । राष्ट्रपति एउटा संस्था हो । राष्ट्रपतिको कदमलाई कुनै पनि हालतमा स्वीकार गर्न सकिँदैन । उहाँले संविधानको उल्लंघन गर्नुभएको छ । ....... कांग्रेस, माओवादी र नेकपा एकीकृत समाजवादीका कतिपय नेताले पनि राष्ट्रपति कदमको समर्थन गरेका छन् । नारायणकाजी श्रेष्ठ, झलनाथ खनालहरुले राष्ट्रपति कदमको समर्थन गर्नुभएको छ ।
We Know Shockingly Little About What Makes Humanity Prosper Patrick Collison calls for a new “science of progress.” ....... one of the most important thinkers now in Silicon Valley — certainly, one of the most quietly influential, someone who is forging and traversing an intellectual path that a lot of other people are now following. ....... There just was no market rapid advance in human living standards. It’s only in the past 10,000 years, and then practically in the past few hundred — just an eye-blink in the time human beings have been on Earth — that things kept changing, usually for the better. And the question is, why? ....... Why isn’t the study of progress in a wide multidisciplinary way a more common and central discipline? ....... you’ve made the argument that science — all science — is slowing down, that we’re putting more money and more people into research, and we’re getting less and less out of it ....... .
Russians Are Terrified and Have Nowhere to Turn “Hello, I have a pregnant wife and a mortgage. My wife is panicking, and I have no money to go abroad. How can I escape the draft?” ........ The Russian government was not interested in who will pay the mortgage or take care of his pregnant wife. It simply wanted more fodder for its war. ......... In the face of a monstrous regime hellbent on war and widespread international isolation, Russians are caught in a disaster. And judging from the response so far, they are terrified. ....... There are, tellingly, very few people eager to go to war — something made viscerally clear by the shooting of a recruitment officer in Siberia on Monday. Enthusiasm is thin on the ground: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of a private military company and a businessman close to Mr. Putin, has resorted to recruiting from prisons. ........
For regular citizens who want to escape that hellish fate, there simply aren’t many options.
........ What remains open is Georgia, where the queue at the border crossing is more than 24 hours long and people are occasionally denied entry without any obvious reason. There are also destinations as far-flung as Norway, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Mongolia. Getting to any, by foot, bike or car, is a daunting undertaking with no assurance of success. ........ You want to fly to neighboring Kazakhstan? Here’s a ticket, with two layovers, for $20,000. Want to go to Armenia? No tickets left. Or to Georgia? Russia used to have daily direct flights to Tbilisi before the conflict in 2008, but now you cannot fly there, either. ..........
Russians have become outcasts.
........ Some regional military authorities have already issued orders forbidding men who are subject to mobilization — that is, nearly all men — to leave their towns and cities. ......... Why don’t Russians protest? Well, many are. The first evening after the announcement was made, the Russian police detained over a thousand demonstrators in more than 30 cities across the country. Some protesters were severely beaten up. This is bravery beyond the imagining of those who have never experienced life in a dictatorship. ........... The main opposition politician, Aleksei Navalny, is behind bars; protest is effectively outlawed; and even mild antiwar statements can land Russians in prison with a hefty sentence. I, for one, am facing criminal charges for writing on Instagram that the massacre in Bucha, Ukraine, was perpetrated by the Russian Army. For Russians, there is no visible route to a better future. ......... Thwarted by Ukraine’s resistance, he chose to punish Russian citizens for his failure. Capital punishment may be forbidden in Russia. But for Mr. Putin’s decision, many people will pay with their lives. .
How Seriously Should We Take Putin’s Nuclear Threat in Ukraine? Across almost eight decades the possibility of nuclear war has been linked to complex strategic calculations, embedded in command-and-control systems, subject to exhaustive war games. Yet every analysis comes down to unknowable human elements as well: Come the crisis, the awful moment, how does a decisive human actor choose? ......... This problem is worth pondering because
the world is probably now closer to the use of nuclear weapons than at any point in decades — and just how close may depend on the unknowable mental states of the Russian dictator
. ........... At best, the mobilization may help Russia hold on to its limited, too-costly conquests; at worst it will just feed miserable conscripts into a collapsing front. ......... we have an active conflict, a hot war, where a non-nuclear power is trying to win a victory with conventional forces and the other side is attempting to draw a red line past which nukes will be deployed — meaning that if the war continues on its current trajectory, that side’s bluff will be called, and it will face an immediate choice between the nuclear option and defeat. ......... The closest Cold War parallels might be Fidel Castro’s desire for Soviet nukes to defend his regime against invasion, or Douglas MacArthur’s request for permission to use nuclear weapons to forestall outright defeat in the Korean War. Both were cases like the current one, where the contemplated use was not an overwhelming Strangelovian exchange but a tactical intervention to prevent a conventional defeat. .......... Except with the added twist in this case that the key decision makers, Putin and his inner circle, are more immediately threatened — in the sense of a danger to their hold on power and ultimately their very lives — by the prospect of conventional defeat in the Ukraine War ......... The world-historical recklessness of such a decision would carry its own potentially regime-destroying consequences — the possibility of escalation to outright war with NATO, the total abandonment of Russia by its remaining quasi-friends and the full collapse of its economy. It’s a reasonable-enough bet that even facing defeat, he or his regime would blink. .......... — the point where the Ukrainians want to go all the way, and we require negotiation and restraint. .
My Family Knows That Putin Will Get Whatever Result He Wants Starting this weekend, people in four occupied regions of Ukraine will “vote” on whether to join Russia. For many people, including my aunt and uncle, in Donetsk, what that really means is they will be forcibly absorbed into a country they do not want to be a part of. ........ Ever since 2014, when Russia-backed separatists took control of Donetsk, one of the biggest cities in Ukraine, and declared it the “Donetsk People’s Republic,” talk of joining Russia has come in waves. Many residents have left, but those who didn’t — many of them older people who had nowhere to go — knew that living in a republic that was recognized by only Russia, North Korea and Syria, and under constant shelling, was unsustainable. Views on whether the city should become part of Russia, however, varied widely. Some coveted Russian citizenship because they saw Russia as a stronger, richer country with better jobs and higher pensions. Others, like my aunt and uncle, who have lived in Donetsk their whole lives, wanted the region to go back to Ukraine. ........... The Donbas is not like Crimea, a pretty and popular resort destination on the Black Sea ......... “This referendum is a sham,” my aunt said in a message over Telegram, the only remaining mode of communication we have since phone and other messaging apps were shut off. “They will get whatever result that they want.” ............ “I don’t know anyone who is planning to vote, unless they come to our houses and force us at gunpoint,” she told me. .......
My family is not being liberated. It is about to be subjugated.
.
Three Paths Toward an Endgame for Putin’s War Ukraine and its allies had just forced Russian invaders into a chaotic retreat from a big chunk of territory, while the leaders of China and India had seemed to make clear to Vladimir Putin that the food and energy inflation his war has stoked was hurting their 2.7 billion people. On top of all that, one of Russia’s iconic pop stars told her 3.4 million followers on Instagram that the war was “turning our country into a pariah and worsening the lives of our citizens.” .........
it was Putin’s worst week since he invaded Ukraine — without wisdom, justice, mercy or a Plan B.
.......... How does this war end with a stable result? ......... all coming with complicated and unpredictable side effects ........... You may not be interested in the Ukraine war, but the Ukraine war will be interested in you, in your energy and food prices, and, most important, in your humanity, as even the “neutrals” — China and India — have discovered. ........ “How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?” ........ I sure hope the C.I.A. has a covert plan to interrupt Putin’s chain of command so no one would push the button. ......... The goal of Ukraine is to win, he said. The goal of the European Union is a bit different. It is to have peace ........ some like the Baltic countries will 100 percent support Zelensky. But others will not care about freezing for Donetsk or Luhansk ........ and signaling to Kyiv, America and the E.U.: “I’ve still got lots of rockets and no conscience. If you don’t give me some face-saving slice so I can justify this war to my people, I will really destroy this place. Remember Grozny and Aleppo.” ...... “We suffered some 70,000 casualties, lost thousands of tanks and armored vehicles and experienced terrible economic sanctions — and I got you nothing.” ........ Putin would probably have to be ousted by a popular mass protest movement, or by a palace coup ........ This was always Putin’s war. It was never the Russian people’s war....... When the fighting stops and the world demands that Russia’s foreign reserves now frozen in Western banks — some $300 billion — be diverted to Ukraine to rebuild its hospitals and bridges and schools destroyed by the Russian Army, the Russian people will start to understand that this war was not free. ......... Or, Putin could be replaced by a power vacuum and disorder — in a country with thousands of nuclear warheads. ........ “Russia’s defining 20th-century pop star, Alla Pugacheva, declared her opposition to the invasion of Ukraine on Sunday, emerging as the most significant celebrity to come out against the war as President Vladimir V. Putin faces growing challenges on and off the battlefield. Ms. Pugacheva, who is 73, wrote in a post on Instagram, where she has 3.4 million followers, that Russians were dying in Ukraine for ‘illusory goals.’” .
The Myths That Made, and Still Make, Russia In a new book, the historian Orlando Figes argues that the war on Ukraine is only the latest instance of a nation twisting the past to justify its future. ......... When Soviet forensic scientists exhumed the remains of Ivan the Terrible in the early 1960s, they were surprised to find them saturated with mercury. Used as a painkiller in the 16th century, the highly toxic substance was probably administered to relieve symptoms of a debilitating arthritic disease that had fused parts of the czar’s vertebrae. The main significance of the discovery to us now is that most, if not all, stories about Ivan — describing diabolical rages and throwing cats off Kremlin walls — could not have physically been possible. They’re the stuff of myth. ............ Few observers of President Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin today question its predilection for passing off total fiction as official truth ......... how the president has deeply tapped into central tropes of Russia’s traditional political culture to pose as his country’s sole savior. ......... a characterization of Russian autocracy as “patrimonial” — the state as the personal domain of the czar ......... Vladimir — Volodymyr in Ukrainian — prompted Rus’s conversion to Orthodox Christianity, imported from Byzantium near the end of the 10th century. ......... Ukrainians see him as central to their culture and independence from Russian and Soviet rule. Russians, for their part, claim Rus as the birthplace of their own culture, the foundation of a larger Slav civilization with Moscow at its center. “What we have in the conflict over Volodymyr/Vladimir,” Figes writes, “is not a genuine historical dispute, but two incompatible foundation myths.” ............ Russia has relied on its version during the last few centuries to not only legitimize its expansion, especially into parts of today’s Ukraine, but also lay claim to the mantle of truest defender of Christianity. Hence Moscow’s claim to be the “Third Rome,” inheritor of Christian Orthodoxy following the fall of the second Rome, Constantinople. “These myths,” Figes explains, “became fundamental to the Russians’ understanding of their history and national character.” ............ The early rulers of Muscovy — the medieval state that would become Russia — looked to Europe for models for their court culture soon after they began consolidating power in the 15th century. Emulating Western culture and practices would prompt admiration and antagonism; Russians have defined their culture in imitation and opposition ever since. ........... how the challenges of geography and climate have reinforced a long-held perception about the need for collective responsibility and strong autocratic leadership. He explains the importance of stability to the burgeoning new Muscovite state, founded on the central role of the czar as arbiter between ruling clans. ............ In an important distinction from Western practice, the boyars — Moscow’s version of nobility — held status and property solely at the czar’s pleasure, with no rights of private ownership. “It was a system of dependency upon the ruler that has lasted to this day,” Figes writes.
“Putin’s oligarchs are totally dependent on his will.”
..........
Russia never experienced its own version of European feudalism, or a Renaissance or Enlightenment.
........ the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 was the result of not only bungling by the reactionary Czar Nicholas II but also dumb luck and German support — the ensuing civil war could have gone either way. Even more nuance is missing from later Soviet history, including the paradoxical figure of the reformer Nikita Khrushchev. .......... Popular disenchantment with the West had more to do with vastly unrealistic expectations, the widespread belief that the communist collapse would bring quick integration with the liberal democratic world and a BMW in every garage, instead of inevitable economic catastrophe. ............. why the return to a traditional political culture has been so effective for maintaining his 22-year kleptocracy . ............. if and when Putinism collapses, we would do well to learn from the past and not treat the country simply as a blank canvas on which to project Western-style democracy. .
Why Russia Is Losing Steam and Ukraine Is Gaining GroundA national security expert takes stock of what the United States got wrong about Putin — and how Ukraine is gaining momentum, seven months in. ....... Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday, Feb. 24. And everything we know about that invasion at its launch implies that Vladimir Putin expected a lightning victory. That’s what the battle plans seemed to be built for. And to be fair, that’s what many of the world’s intelligence agencies and military analysts thought that he would get .......... Sept. 19. We talked, as you’ll hear, about Putin’s clear reluctance to expand his army through conscription, but the fact that he might need to do it anyway. ........ Russia is struggling in this war, and that’s forcing Putin to make more and more desperate and politically dangerous — for him — decisions. ........ the trajectory of the war is now working in Ukraine’s favor, that they will eventually win this war. ........ Kyiv. There’s traffic, shops are open, and people are out at restaurants. And I think I understood that at an intellectual level — I know if you look at the polling, it’s something like 97 percent of Ukrainians believe they will win the war . .......... Ukraine as a society is prepared to weather this ...... said that Putin’s use of a nuclear weapon will not change the outcome of the war, nor how Ukraine fights the war, that it will only increase the cost that they’re going to have to incur to get there ....... Ukraine has the backing of the international community. Weapons continue to flow in. .......... Russia came in saying that they were going to basically de-Nazify Ukraine, that they were going to take over the entire country, to erase Ukraine as an idea. They were looking for the full thing. ........... Zelensky now talks in much bolder, grander terms. He is talking about very seriously restoring all of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including Crimea, and including taking back the territory that Russia has illegally held in the east of the country. .......... President Zelensky’s definition of victory is that he will restore Ukraine’s borders to where they were prior to 2014. I think that is the vision of victory that he has in mind. ......... President Zelensky himself has really been pushing for this, because he’s been very worried about his ability to sustain Western support for the war, given that we’re going into a very long, cold winter. .......... his theory of the case was that if he could show that, then he assumed that Western support would be more robust. And I think so far, he’s right. ........... They achieved surprise, which is key. They broke through, and they routed these Russian forces. A lot of them fled. .......... The territory that they took breaks up Russian supply lines that will make it harder for Russia to resupply other parts of the battlefield. ......... the shift in perspective really is energizing military and economic support for Ukraine. ....... and it has seemed, actually, throughout the war, that Russia’s information isn’t very good. ......... the reconnaissance on the Russian side has been extremely poor. I don’t know why that is. I mean, there are so many things that have been surprising about this war. ........ not only have they done a poor job with the intelligence and reconnaissance, but there has been an inability on the Russian side to exploit opportunities as they’ve arisen. And so I think a lot of this has to do with the command and control, and the culture of the two militaries. ........ they empower them to make decisions on the spot, which allows the Ukrainian side to be much more nimble and agile, and take advantage of opportunities as they arise. The opposite is true for the Russians. It’s extremely rigid. They don’t have good command and control. They don’t delegate responsibility down. They don’t trust their subordinates. ............ it’s clear now that the U.S. understood that Russia was going to do this invasion before really anybody else. ......... The Europeans were skeptical. Ukraine was very skeptical ........ the key success was that it enabled the United States and Europe to be prepared. So before Putin went in, a lot of the sanctions work, the sanctions packages had already been drawn up. And it’s one of the factors why we’ve seen such a cohesive Western response to what Russia did, is because we were prepared. We weren’t surprised. ............ the United States has played a really important role not just with the provision of weapons, but also with the provision of intelligence .
Why the pound is falling, what it means – and what can be done about it An emergency Bank of England interest rate rise is on the cards to calm markets ...... Kwasi Kwarteng's tax-cutting mini-Budget has sent the pound into a tailspin ....... Investors have dumped UK assets in the wake of the statement, selling off the pound and sending government borrowing costs surging. Britain has suddenly become a riskier bet. ....... “If the Government goes on frightening markets in the way that it has, then [the pound] is going to go on showing a vote of no confidence," said Martin Weale, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. ....... The Government is betting that radically reducing the tax burden will help grow the size of the economy and eventually pay for itself, through higher tax receipts that can pay for the borrowing binge required. ....... Most economists are sceptical. Former Bank of England rate-setter Willem Buiter has branded the plans “totally, totally nuts”. Jacob Kirkegaard from the think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics meanwhile called it
“the epitome of casino macroeconomics”
........ Many economists worry that the wide-ranging tax cuts will add too much to the national debt. ...... The Chancellor’s boosting of demand through £45bn of tax cuts - with the promise of more to come - has fuelled expectations that the Bank will need to start raising interest rates even faster to tame stronger price pressures. ......... as the Chancellor borrows to fund the tax cuts. ....... Kwarteng’s fiscal stimulus is coming at a time when the Bank of England is trying to dampen demand by tightening monetary policy, both by raising interest rates and selling the gilts it holds. It is described by economists as the equivalent of a driver putting one foot on the accelerator and the other on the brake at the same time. ........ Ex-MPC member Danny Blanchflower has been calling for people to short the pound since last week. Paul Donovan, global chief economist at UBS Wealth Management, said: "Investors seem inclined to regard the UK Conservative Party as a doomsday cult."
It’s shocking how little innovation there has been in the way we primarily interact with computers since the first versions of Mac OS & iOS
There is no way we’ve settled on the best possible user interface. We’re stuck at a local maximum
If GOP wins in November, forget impeaching Biden -- Kamala's even worse. Instead, focus on defunding every unconstitutional department. Leaves you with roughly Coast Guard, post office, and minting gold coins. Which feels about right.
It's time again to talk about goals of the war. To say loud and clear that Ukraine's territory must be 100% liberated of Russian invaders. That there can be no way back to normalcy for Russia with Putin the war criminal still in charge. 1/5
Russians are resisting Putin's desperate mobilization and Ukraine is winning. It's time to finish the job, to give Ukraine everything and Putin nothing. But Western allies are still holding back despite Russia's open transformation into a fascist dictatorship. 2/5
Putin's loyalty for benefits contract with the Russian people has been broken on the rock of Ukraine's resistance. What's the point of his domestic violence, his foreign terror now? There's no payoff for the bureaucracy & siloviki anymore, just escape or isolation. 4/5
"The 2nd assumption made by those advocating off-ramps is that Russia, even if it were to begin negotiating, would stick to the agreements it signed...
But brazen dishonesty is now a normal part of Russian foreign policy as well as domestic propaganda."https://t.co/0nFVVTGvnq
The War Won’t End Until Putin Loses Offering the Russian president a face-saving compromise will only enable future aggression. ........ The first assumption is that Russia’s president wants to end the war, that he needs an off-ramp, and that he is actually searching for a way to save face and to avoid, in French President Emmanuel Macron’s words, further “humiliation.” It is true that Putin’s army has performed badly, that Russian troops unexpectedly retreated from northern Ukraine, and that they have, at least temporarily, given up the idea of destroying the Ukrainian state. They suffered far greater casualties than anyone expected, lost impressive quantities of equipment, and demonstrated more logistical incompetence than most experts thought possible. But they have now regrouped in eastern and southern Ukraine, where their goals remain audacious: They seek to wear down Ukrainian troops, wear out Ukraine’s international partners,
and exhaust the Ukrainian economy, which may already have contracted by as much as half.
.......... Buoyed by oil and gas revenues, the Russian economy is experiencing a much less severe recession than Ukraine. Unconcerned by public opinion, the Russian army seems not to care how many of its soldiers die. For all of those reasons, Putin may well believe that a long-term war of attrition is his to win, not just in southern and eastern Ukraine but eventually in Kyiv and beyond. Certainly that’s what Kremlin propagandists are still telling the Russian people. On state television, the Russian army is triumphant, Russian soldiers are protecting civilians, and only Ukrainians commit atrocities. With a few minor exceptions,
no one has prepared the Russian public to expect anything except total victory
. ........... In the run-up to the war, senior Russian officials repeatedly denied that they intended to invade Ukraine, Russian state television mocked the Western warnings of invasion as “hysterical,” and Putin personally promised the French president that no war was coming. None of that was true. No future promises made by the Russian state, so long as it is controlled by Putin, can be believed either. .......... assume that any Ukrainian populations handed over to Russia would be subject to arrests, terror, mass theft, and rape on an unprecedented scale; that Ukrainian cities would be incorporated into Russia against the will of the public; and that, as in 2014, when Russian proxies in the Donbas agreed to a truce, any cease-fire would be temporary, lasting only as long as it would take for the Russian army to regroup, rearm, and start again. Putin has made clear that destroying Ukraine is, for him, an essential, even existential, goal. Where is the evidence that he has abandoned it? ......... The third assumption is that this Ukrainian government, or any Ukrainian government, is politically able to swap territory for peace. ....... Russian cruelty also means that any territory that is temporarily ceded will, sooner or later, become the source of an insurgency, because no Ukrainian population can promise to endure that kind of torture indefinitely. Already, guerrillas in the city of Melitopol, occupied since the first days of the war, claim to have killed several Russian officers and carried out acts of sabotage. An underground is emerging in occupied Kherson and will appear in other places too. To concede territory for a deal now will simply set up another conflict later on. The end of one kind of violence will lead to other kinds of violence. ........ This does not mean that the war can or should go on forever, or that diplomacy has no place at all. Nor does it mean that Americans and Europeans should be blind to the real challenges that a long conflict will pose to Ukraine. The Western coalition backing Kyiv could certainly fray; the wave of adrenaline that has so far propelled the Ukrainian army and leadership could crash. Ukraine’s economy could grow worse, making the fight much harder or even impossible to sustain. ........
our goal, our endgame, should be defeat.
........ the American administration clearly knows that the defeat, sidelining, or removal of Putin is the only outcome that offers any long-term stability in Ukraine and the rest of Europe ..... Any cease-fire that allows Putin to experience any kind of victory will be inherently unstable, because it will encourage him to try again. Victory in Crimea did not satisfy the Kremlin. Victory in Kherson will not satisfy the Kremlin either. ........... His generals make calculations and weigh costs. They were perfectly capable of understanding that the price of Russia’s early advances was too high. The price of using tactical nuclear weapons would be far higher: They would achieve no military impact but would destroy all of Russia’s remaining relationships with India, China, and the rest of the world. ....... Only failure can persuade the Russians themselves to question the sense and purpose of a colonial ideology that has repeatedly impoverished and ruined their own economy and society, as well as those of their neighbors, for decades. Yet another frozen conflict, yet another temporary holding pattern, yet another face-saving compromise will not end the pattern of Russian aggression or bring permanent peace. .
🗣 Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, said that the US had “communicated directly, privately to the Russians at very high levels” how it would respond if Vladimir Putin carried out the nuclear strike threat he made during an address last weekhttps://t.co/7UxMmPhdLHpic.twitter.com/Vr2qJoYwgO
Mr Sullivan did not describe the nature of the planned response but said the US had privately “spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean” to Moscow
Some of Putin’s allies, including the speaker of the State Duma, publicly broke ranks on Sunday to criticise the way in which conscripts are being recruited, amid reports of elderly and ill men being drafted after the partial mobilisation order pic.twitter.com/sgX8ZaVoFP
Putin made the nuclear threat in an address when he said Russia had “various weapons of destruction” at its disposal and would use “all the means available”, before adding that he was not “bluffing”https://t.co/7UxMmPhdLHpic.twitter.com/KJr8LV2Boo
☢️While the threat is seen by some as an attempt to assert control after a series of embarrassing defeats in Ukraine, Nato’s nuclear powers have started ramping up vigilance and deterrence
US will take ‘catastrophic’ action if Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons Severe consequences loom if Russia follows through on attack threat, says White House, as Kremlin’s sham referendums in Ukraine continue ........ Military analysts believe Putin could use Russia’s military doctrine, which allows it to use nuclear weapons to defend its territory, to reframe the conflict in Ukraine as defensive. ...... Russian forces have only been able to coerce one in five residents of occupied Melitopol to vote in a sham annexation referendum despite the threat of violence, its exiled mayor has said. ...... Since voting began on Friday, Russian officials have been going door-to-door in occupied regions flanked by gunmen to give out ballot papers and identify voters. ...... Ukrainians living under occupation have been warned their families would be massacred if they refuse to take part. ....... Despite the threats, Ivan Fedorov, Ukraine’s elected mayor of Melitopol, said: “Our citizens haven’t taken part in this fake referendum … after three days Russia has only been able to find just 20 per cent of people to vote. Nobody wants to vote, nobody wants to say yes to the Russian referendum.” .........
Of those forced to cast a vote, he said “90 per cent” had voted against Russia’s occupation becoming permanent.
