Facebook: September 30

News: September 29

माओवादी बैठकमा संगठन व्यवस्थित र विस्तार गर्ने योजना पेस
प्रदेश–२ मुख्यमन्त्री कार्यालयमा अख्तियार छापा ‘बेटी पढाऊ, बेटी बचाऊ’ साइकल खरिदका नालीबेली बर्दिबासस्थित अख्तियार कार्यालयको मेघराज रिमालको नेतृत्वमा खटिएको ६ सदस्यीय टोलीले मुख्यमन्त्री कार्यालयमा छापा मारेको हो । ..... प्रदेश–२ सरकारले २०७५ मंसिरबाट ‘बेटी पढाउ, बेटी बचाउ’ अभियान सुरु गरेको थियो । उक्त अभियानअन्तर्गत चार वर्षका अवधिमा करिब २९ करोड रुपैयाँ खर्ची फरक–फरक दररेट ४१ हजार २ सय ६८ साइकल खरिद गरिएको थियो । तीमध्ये ८ हजार साइकल वितरण नगरी गोदाममै थन्किएको छ । ....... मुख्यमन्त्री कार्यालयले छात्राहरूलाई बाँड्न गत असारमा खरिद गरेका १० हजारमध्ये दुई हजार जति मात्रै वितरण गरिएको थियो । बाँकी साइकल जनकपुर चुरोट कारखानाको सूर्ति राख्ने गोदाममा राखिएको ‘बेटी बचाऊ’ अभियानकी प्रियंका यादवले बताएकी छिन् । उनका अनुसार, कोरोना महामारीको कारण साइकल वितरण गर्न नसकिएको हो । तर चाँडै नै वितरण प्रक्रिया अघि बढाइनेछ ।

YouTube: September 28

News: September 28

समाजवादी र जसपाले क–कसलाई बनाउँदैछन् मन्त्री ? एकीकृत समाजवादी विरोध खतिवडाको नेतृत्वमा सरकारमा जाने ....... जसपाले नेता राजेन्द्र श्रेष्ठको नेतृत्वमा सरकारमा जाने तयारी गरेको छ ।

मन्त्री बन्ने रहर छैन, म सरकारमा जान्नँ : उपेन्द्र यादव ‘म पार्टी संगठनकै काममा लाग्छु, पार्टीलाई व्यवस्थित बनाउनका लागि गर्नुपर्ने कामहरु धेरै छन् ।’ ...... २५ सदस्यीय मन्त्रिपरिषदमा प्रधानमन्त्री देउवाबाहेक २४ मन्त्रालयमा ४ दललाई समानरुपमा सहभागी गराउनुपर्ने जसपाको अडान रहेको यादवको भनाइ छ । ...... बराबरीका आधारमा भागवण्डा गर्दा माधव नेपाल र उपेन्द्र यादवको पार्टीबाट भने ६/६ जना मन्त्री हुन पाउँछन् । तथापि अहिलेसम्म गठबन्धन दलहरुले कतिवटा र कुन–कुन मन्त्रालय पाउने भन्नेबारे टुंगो लागिसकेको छैन ।

एमालेलाई ‘एककोषीय’ बनाउने प्रयास पार्टीभित्रको दुई लाइन संघर्षलाई ‘किचकिच’ को संज्ञा ....... एमालेलाई कस्तो बनाउने भन्ने नीति तय गर्न असोज १५–१७ ललितपुरको गोदावरीमा तीन हजार बढी एमालेजन भेला हुँदैछन् । ....... तीनवटा दस्तावेजमाथि छलफल गर्ने एमालेको तयारी छ । पहिलो– अध्यक्ष केपी शर्मा ओलीले तयार पारेको ६९ पृष्ठको राजनीतिक प्रतिवेदन । दोस्रो– महासचिव ईश्वर पोखरेलले तयार पारेको ५३ पृष्ठ लामो संगठनात्मक प्रस्ताव र तेस्रो– विष्णु पौडेलले तयार पारेको ४७ पृष्ठको विधान संशोधन प्रस्ताव । ....... तीन नेताले तयार पारेका दस्तावेजमाथि स्थायी कमिटीमा पटक–पटक छलफल भइसकेको छ । त्यसपछि केन्द्रीय कमिटीको बैठकमा तीन दिनसम्म ‘ग्रुप डिस्कसन’ भएको छ । ...... पार्टीभित्रको अन्तरविरोध र बहसलाई ओलीले ‘किचकिच’को संज्ञा दिने गरेका छन् । ‘किचकिच गर्नेहरु’ ले छाडेपछि नेकपा एमाले झन् बलियो बनेको र नयाँ पालुवा हालेको विश्लेषण ओलीले ०७७ पुसदेखि अहिलेसम्म निरन्तर गरिरहेका छन् । पार्टी फुटेकोमा ग्लानि र आत्मालोचना हैन, विजय भाव देखिन्छ । ....... बहुमतको सरकार ढलेर एमाले सडकमा आइपुगेको स्थिति छ । प्रदेशमा पनि एमालेका सरकारहरु ढलिरहेका छन् । नेकपा फुटेको छ र त्यसपछि एमाले पनि चोइटिएको छ । दुई चोटि गरिएको संसद विघटन बहादुरी हो कि गल्ती हो भनेर छुट्याउनुपर्ने स्थिति छ । सर्वोच्च अदालतको भण्डाफोर गर्ने कि सम्मान गर्ने भन्ने प्रश्न छ । संसदमा भइरहेको अवरोध ठीक कि बेठीक भन्ने प्रश्न पनि एमालेसामु खडा भएको छ । .... नवौं महाधिवेशनयताका सबै समस्या ‘माधव समूह’ को टाउकोमा थोपरेर दस्तावेजमा ओलीलाई एकमात्र ‘सत्यवादी हरिश्चन्द्र’ देखाउन खोजिएको आरोप छ । ....... विधान महाधिवेशनमा एकातिर ‘पूर्वमाओवादी’ र अर्कोतर्फ ‘नवौं महाधिवेशनको अल्पमत पक्ष’ ले बेग्लाबेग्लै ‘विचार समूह’ ब्यूँताउने संकेत देखिएको छ । ओली समूहभित्रै पनि गोकुल बास्कोटा र महेश बस्नेतहरुबीच अन्तरविरोध छँदैछ । अन्ततः

एमाले उही पुरानै ‘अन्तरविरोधपूर्ण’ अवस्थामा रुमल्लिने लक्षण देखिएको छ ।

...... हुन त आठौं महाधिवेशनमा एमालेलाई लोकतान्त्रीकरण गर्ने भन्दै बहुपदीय प्रणालीमा लैजाने प्रस्ताव ओलीले नै अघि सारेका हुन् । जब ओली पार्टीको सत्तामा आए, उनले बहुपदीय प्रणालीप्रति अरुचि देखाए । सरकार सञ्चालन र संसदलाई हेर्ने मामिलामा पनि ओलीमा बहुलवादप्रति अरुचि देखिएको छ । ........ महासचिव पोखरेलले आफ्नो प्रस्तावमा बहुपदले बहुकेन्द्र जन्माएको र पार्टीजीवनको लोकतान्त्रीकरणको क्रममा अराजकता र गुटबन्दी बढेको निश्कर्ष निकालेका छन् । ओलीको प्रतिवेदनले पनि पार्टीभित्रको जनवाद र लोकतान्त्रीकरणलाई भन्दा ‘अनुशासन’ मा बढी जोड दिएको छ । .........

ओलीको ‘फिलोसोफी’ नै यस्तो देखिन्छ कि उनी ‘किचकिच’ विनाको पार्टी चाहन्छन् । ‘किचकिच’ बिनाको संसद चाहन्छन् । उनी एमालेलाई बहुलवादी होइन, एककोषीय बनाउन चाहन्छन् ।

........ एमाले र केपी ओलीलाई पर्यायका रुपमा हेर्नुहुँदैन भन्ने उनीहरुको जिकिर छ । तर, एमालेको विधान अधिवेशनमा पेश गर्ने दस्तावेजहरु र संगठनको संरचना हेर्दा एमाले र केपी ओली एकअर्काका पर्याय देखिन्छन् । ....... पछिल्लो समय ओलीले दोहोर्याएर पार्टी अध्यक्ष नबन्ने घोषणा गरेका थिए । प्रधानमन्त्रीमा पनि युवालाई ठाउँ दिनुपर्छ भनेका थिए । तर, आगामी दशौं महाधिवेशनमा सहजरुपमा नेतृत्व हस्तान्तरण गर्नुको साटो ओली पुनः पार्टी अध्यक्ष बन्न इच्छुक देखिएका छन् ।

सत्ता गठबन्धनबीच मन्त्रालय भागबन्डा सहमति, कुन दललाई कति मन्त्रालय ?
‘देश देशावरलाई’ ‘बेस्ट सेलर बुक अवार्ड’ सन् २०१७ मा स्थापित भएको किताब यात्रा नेपालको सबैभन्दा ठूलो अन लाइन बुक स्टोर भएको बताइएको छ । ........ चितवन जिल्लाको पदमपुरमा जन्मिएर मस्कोबाट इन्जिनियरिङ गरेका लामिछानेले जर्मनीलाई कर्म थलो बनाउँदै आएका छन् । उनी गैरआवासीय नेपाली सङ्घका संस्थापक सदस्य तथा पूर्व अध्यक्षसमेत समेत हुन् ।

YouTube: September 27

China

Can Macron Lead the European Union After Merkel Retires? Emmanuel Macron, the French president, would love to fill the German chancellor’s shoes. But a Europe with no single, central figure may be more likely. ......... The German chancellor, though credited for navigating multiple crises, was

long criticized for lacking strategic vision

. Mr. Macron, whose more swaggering style has sometimes ruffled his European partners — and Washington — has put forward ideas for a more independent and integrated Europe, better able to act in its own defense and its own interests. .......... But as the Anglo-American “betrayal” in the Australian submarine affair has underscored, Mr. Macron sometimes possesses ambitions beyond his reach. Despite the vacuum Ms. Merkel leaves, a Macron era is unlikely to be born.......... an authoritative, well-briefed leader who quietly managed compromise and built consensus among a long list of louder and more ideological colleagues. ........ Mr. Macron has argued forcefully that Europe must do more to protect its own interests in a world where China is rising and the United States is focusing on Asia. His officials are already trying to prepare the ground on some key issues, looking forward to January, when France takes over the rotating European Union presidency. .......... “Macron’s leadership is disruptive, and the German style is to change institutions incrementally” ....... Europe must be less dependent on Washington and spend at least a little more in its own defense ........ “We’re closer to Germany than to France, but without all the ambiguities on Russia and China.’’ ........ A new German chancellor is expected to win only a quarter of the vote, and may need to negotiate a coalition agreement among three different political parties. ........ “She kept in mind the interests of so many in Europe, especially Central Europe but also Italy, so that everyone could be kept on board.’’ ......... willing to bend to keep the bloc together, as evidenced by her support for collective debt, previously a German red line, to fund the coronavirus recovery fund. ......... Germany is still responsible for more than half of Chinese trade with Europe.’’ ...... “You can’t have fiscal and defense integration by stealth,’’ he said. “It won’t have legitimacy and won’t be accepted by citizens.’’

For India’s Military, a Juggling Act on Two Hostile Fronts Tensions with China and Pakistan stretch a cash-starved military, while the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban removes a potential ally.’ ......... In the past year, it has tripled the number of troops in the contentious eastern Ladakh region to more than 50,000. It has raced to stock up on food and gear for freezing temperatures and 15,000-foot altitudes before the region is largely cut off for much of the winter. It has announced that an entire strike corps, an offensive force of tens of thousands more soldiers, would be reoriented to the increasingly contentious frontier with China from the long, volatile border with Pakistan. ...........

It is stuck in a two-front conflict with hostile neighbors — and all three are nuclear armed.

........ And it comes as India increasingly finds itself isolated in its broader neighborhood ...... China has made investments and inroads from Sri Lanka to Nepal. The victory in Afghanistan by the Taliban, a movement nurtured and harbored in Pakistan that has increasing ties to China, has essentially shut out India from a country it saw as a natural ally in the regional balance. ..........

Even if all-out war on its borders is unlikely, the sustained posture is sure to bleed India financially.

.......... The breakdown of trust between the giant neighbors is such that a dozen rounds of talks since the deadly clashes last year have contained the tensions, but they have not resulted in de-escalation.

Both nations are likely to remain on war footing, even if they never go to war.

............ “Galwan carried another message: that China was not respecting the agreements it had signed,” General Malik said. “The biggest casualty in Galwan, to my mind, was not that we lost 20 men, but the trust was shattered.” ............

About 75 percent of defense expenditure goes to routine costs such as pensions, salaries and sustainment of force.

In 2020, India spent about $73 billion on the military, compared with China’s $252 billion. ........ India and China have not been able to agree on the specific demarcation of the 2,100-mile frontier referred to as the Line of Actual Control. Indian officials say their Chinese counterparts have been reluctant, preferring to keep the border’s uncertainties as a “pressure tactic.” ........

The clashes last year were a blow to Mr. Modi, who has focused on developing a formula of mutual prosperity with China.

........ Since Mr. Modi took office, the leaders of the two countries have met nearly 20 times .......... On one of Mr. Modi’s five trips to China, Mr. Xi welcomed him with a Chinese ensemble playing a Bollywood soundtrack from the 1970s as the prime minister clapped and grinned. ......... eastern Ladakh, where China has terrain advantage — the Tibetan plateau makes moving troops easier — and better infrastructure on its side of the border. ........ It transports hundreds of tons of matériel every day to not only sustain 75,000 troops guarding against Pakistan and China, but also to stock up for six months of winter when many of the roads close. At the Siachen Glacier — referred to as the battleground on the roof of the world — Indian forces have maintained a face-off with Pakistan for more than three decades. .......... During last year’s clashes, India benefited from an element of luck, since the tensions escalated during warmer weather. “Had this happened sometime in September, we would have to fly in troops. That was the only option, because the passes have ice over it — 40 foot of ice” ............ 48 items of specialized gear, 18 of which — such as snow clothing, snow boots, alpine sleeping bags, ice axes — are critical

Power Outages Hit China, Threatening the Economy and Christmas High demand and soaring energy prices have forced some factories to shut down, adding further problems for already snarled global supply chains. ........ Power cuts and even blackouts have slowed or closed factories across China in recent days, adding a new threat to the country’s slowing economy and potentially further snarling global supply chains ahead of the busy Christmas shopping season in the West. ..........

The outages have rippled across most of eastern China, where the bulk of the population lives and works.

....... Mr. Xi risks getting tagged for problems as well as successes. He has moved strongly to quell any opposition within the Communist Party and has extended its reach into more sectors of Chinese life. If people in China begin to point fingers, there are few others to blame. ....... Overall industrial use consumes 70 percent of the electricity in China, led by the mostly state-owned producers of steel, cement and aluminum.

Beyond Evergrande’s Troubles, a Slowing Chinese Economy Investors are watching whether the property developer defaults. But in the background, the world’s No. 2 economy is flashing numerous warning signs. ......... Retail sales were much weaker than expected last month in China, led by slow car sales. Industrial production has slackened, particularly for large freight trucks. And developers sharply reduced new housing projects over the summer, while rushing to finish the projects they had already started. Heavy government spending on new rail lines, highways and other projects is keeping the economy afloat right now, but may not be sustainable through next year. .........

the broad weakness in China’s property market, a mainstay of the economy, and other long-term threats

. ........... Letting Evergrande collapse quickly, on the other hand, risks a broad fall in apartment prices or other potentially unforeseeable shocks to the financial system. .......... Evergrande’s 1.6 million unfinished apartments .......

Construction companies and manufacturers all over the world tend to stop buying large trucks when they see trouble ahead.

Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, used to cite the strength of the freight truck manufacturing industry as one of his favorite predictors of the health of the American economy. .............. heavy truck production and heavy truck sales plummeted by nearly half in August from a year earlier. ........... Truck dealerships across China are now clogged with rows of unsold trucks. ........ After construction and government spending, the auto industry is one of the biggest sectors of the Chinese economy .......... Economists in China note that the Chinese government has more ability than most to set interest rates and control large movements of money in and out of the country. “China,” said Mr. Xu, of Deloitte, “still has a lot of tools.”

North Korea Dangles Hopes for Summit and End-of-War Declaration Kim Jong-un’s sister responds to the South Korean leader’s last attempt to put the peace process back on track, but skepticism abounds. ............ North Korea would consider holding a summit meeting with South Korea and declaring an official end to the Korean War if the South can restore trust with it ........ Mr. Moon insists that if all major participants in the war — the two Koreas, the United States and China — together make such an end-of-war declaration, it could build confidence on the Korean Peninsula and help the North move toward denuclearization. He sees the end-of-war declaration as a trust-building “political” gesture before negotiating a legally binding peace treaty. Fighting halted in a truce in 1953, leaving the peninsula technically in a state of war. .......... if the South restored mutual trust between the two Koreas, “​​several issues for improving the relations,​”​ including ​the end-of-war declaration and an inter-Korean summit, can “see meaningful and successful solution one by one at an early date” ............ peace could take root on the peninsula only ​when South Korea and the United States terminated their joint military exercises and ​American troops ​and weapons were withdrawn ​from the South. .........

The North’s real aim might be to extract aid from South Korea as a reward for starting negotiations for a possible summit

........ “​It’s not wise to read too much into Kim Yo-jong’s conciliatory remarks and​ become too optimistic.”

A Tour of China’s Future Tiangong Space Station A new outpost for astronauts will soon be finished in orbit: China’s new Tiangong space station, or Heavenly Palace. Tiangong will be able to support three astronauts, or up to six people during crew rotations. ....... Astronauts will conduct research in biotechnology, microgravity and space materials science. ....... The Tianzhou-1 can carry 6 tons — the approximate weight of an adult elephant. ........ The finished station will be smaller than the current International Space Station, which typically hosts a crew of about six or seven astronauts.

What a Fungus Reveals About the Space Program One thing’s for sure: Escaping the dung heap doesn’t come cheap. ........ Four decades ago the space shuttle was going to make space travel routine and cheap, almost as uneventful as a trans-Atlantic plane flight. Then 14 astronauts died.

Trump

Trump Had a Mob. He Also Had a Plan. As the full picture of Jan. 6 begins to come into view, I think we should consider it a kind of revolution or, at least, the very beginning of one. Joe Biden ultimately became president, but

Donald Trump’s fight to keep himself in office against the will of the voters

has upturned the political order. ................ Trump, we know, urged Mike Pence to reject the votes of the Electoral College,

with the mob outside as the stick that would compel his obedience

. “You can either go down in history as a patriot,” Trump told Pence, as recounted in this newspaper, “or you can go down in history as a pussy.” .......... this week we learned that he had an actual plan in mind, devised by John Eastman, a prominent conservative lawyer who worked with the former president to challenge the election results, a job that included a speaking slot at the rally on the National Mall that preceded the attack on the Capitol. .......... Eastman was essentially summarizing the contents of a memo he had written on Trump’s behalf,

describing the steps Pence would take to overturn the election in Trump’s favor

. ........... Eastman’s confidence throughout this memo (he dismisses potential Democratic objections as “howls”) belies his shoddy legal, political and constitutional thinking. For one, his argument rests on an expansive reading of the Twelfth Amendment for which there is no precedent or justification. The vice president has never directly counted electoral votes. .......... None of this should make you feel good or cause you to breathe a sigh of relief. Consider what we know. A prominent, respected member in good standing of the conservative legal establishment — Eastman is enrolled in the Federalist Society and clerked for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas — schemed with the president and his allies in the Republican Party to overturn the election and overthrow American democracy under the Constitution. Yes, they failed to keep Trump in office, but they successfully turned the pro forma electoral counting process into an occasion for real political struggle............

As it happens, Trump may well run for president in 2024 (he is already amassing a sizable war chest) with exactly that board in play.

.......... If Trump is, once again, on the ballot, then the election might turn on the manipulation of a ceremony that was, until now, a mere formality. ......... Jan. 6 closed the door on one era of American politics and opened the door to another, where constitutional democracy itself is at stake. ........ the main threat to the security and stability of the United States is coming from inside the house.

America's Xinjiang: Black America?

Joe Manchin Got the Voting Bill He Wanted. Time to Pass It. This antidemocratic (and anti-Democratic) agenda began before President Donald Trump, but he supercharged it. Now, the former president and his supporters — who tried unsuccessfully to overturn the last election by lying about fraud and trying to strong-arm state officials and Congress into flipping electoral votes — have continued their crusade against democracy at the state and local levels. ........... This slimmed-down package jettisons some of the more controversial elements of the earlier plan. It would not, for instance, restructure the Federal Election Commission or mandate the use of nonpartisan commissions for congressional redistricting. ............ The package’s provisions range from making Election Day a public holiday to protecting local election officials from partisan interference. Partisan gerrymandering and voter caging, a sketchy method of purging voting rolls, would be banned. Same-day voter registration would be available in all states, as would automatic voter registration systems. A 30-minute wait-time limit would be imposed for in-person voting, and uniform, flexible ID requirements would be established in states that require voter IDs. .......... “Put simply, if the new bill is enacted, more citizens will be able to register to vote, vote in person and by mail and have their votes counted” ......... To avoid death by filibuster, it needs the support of all 50 Democrats plus 10 Republicans. Absent that, Democrats will face a hard choice: Let this crucial legislation die

or eliminate the legislative filibuster in order to pass the bill on a party-line vote

. .......... while there were some pieces of the For the People Act that made Mr. Manchin uneasy, his primary objection was that it lacked buy-in from Republicans. .......... Republican-controlled legislatures already have passed laws restricting ballot access in at least 18 states. ..........

when voting rights are being ratcheted backward by one party, bipartisanship can’t be an excuse for inaction.

There Is No Good Reason You Should Have to Be a Citizen to Vote Washingtonians love to complain about taxation without representation. But for me and my fellow noncitizens, it is a fact of political life that we submit to unquestioningly year after year, primary after primary, presidential election after presidential election. Nearly

15 million people

living legally in the United States, most of whom contribute as much as any natural-born American to this country’s civic, cultural and economic life, don’t have a say in matters of politics and policy because we — resident foreign nationals, or “aliens” as we are sometimes called — cannot vote. ........... it’s time for Democrats to radically expand the electorate. Proposing federal legislation to give millions of young people and essential workers a clear road to citizenship is a good start. But there’s another measure that lawmakers both in Washington and state capitals should put in place: lifting voting restrictions on legal residents who aren’t citizens — people with green cards, people here on work visas, and those who arrived in the country as children and are still waiting for permanent papers. ............. It’s easy to assume that restricting the franchise to citizens is an age-old, nonnegotiable fact. But it’s actually a relatively recent convention and a political choice. Early in the United States’ history, voting was a function not of national citizenship but of gender, race and class. .........

Arkansas was the last state to eliminate noncitizen voting in 1926

.......... The United States already has plenty of institutions that account for noncitizens: The census aims to reach all residents because it believes everyone, even aliens, matters. Corporations enjoy free speech and legal personhood — and they’re not even people. Would it be such a stretch to give noncitizen residents a say in who gets elected to their state legislature, Congress or the White House? ...........

allowing noncitizens to vote in federal, state and municipal elections would help revitalize American democracy at a time when enthusiasm and trust are lacking.

........... The United States not only allows dual citizenship but also allows dual citizens to vote — and from abroad. Is there any reason to think resident foreigners should be less represented? ............ It took me 15 years and over $10,000 in legal fees (not to mention the cost of college) to obtain permanent residency. The citizenship test and oath feel comparatively like a piece of cake. ........... Since 1992, Takoma Park, Md., has allowed all residents to vote, regardless of their citizenship. Nine additional Maryland towns, as well as districts in Vermont and Massachusetts, have voted to re-enfranchise noncitizens. The cities of Chicago, Washington and Portland are also considering the idea, and a bill that would give New York City’s authorized immigrants voting rights has a new supermajority in the City Council.

The Endless Catastrophe of Rikers Island “There’s garbage everywhere, rotting food with maggots, cockroaches, worms in the showers, human feces and piss,” Ms. Gallagher wrote. “Most of the toilets are broken so men are given plastic bags to relieve themselves in.” ...... “I met multiple men with broken hands and legs that were not being treated,” she continued. ......... More than half of the inmates have received mental health services, and as of last year, nearly one in five had been diagnosed with a serious mental illness. ............ Meanwhile, corrections officers are calling in sick en masse — nearly 1,800 on Wednesday alone — leaving their colleagues to work double and triple shifts and

effectively ceding control of parts of the complex to gangs

. ........

New York, like the rest of the country, locks up far too many people for no good reason.

........... close to 6,000 people at the moment. Taxpayers are charged nearly half a million dollars per year to incarcerate each of these people —

the vast majority of whom haven’t even had a trial yet

. .......... pretrial detention for even a few days makes someone more likely to commit a crime, not less.

News: September 27

The World Is at War With Covid. Covid Is Winning. the race to vaccinate the world against Covid has unfolded like a symphony without a conductor ...... More than 80 percent of the four billion vaccine doses that had been distributed as of early August went to high- and upper-middle-income countries. ........... The People’s Vaccine Alliance estimated in June that

at the current pace, it would take 57 years for low-income countries to vaccinate their entire populations

. High-income countries will do so within the next six months (hesitancy notwithstanding). ............ This month, the global vaccine-sharing initiative known as Covax cut its projections by nearly 30 percent, saying it would have available only 1.4 billion doses by the end of this year. (The initiative has delivered just 271 million doses so far.) Later, President Biden reassured Americans that the United States had enough shots on hand to offer boosters to all its residents. The World Health Organization has been pleading with wealthy nations to hold off on boosters — and to forgo some of their planned vaccine purchases — until the rest of the world has a chance to secure more first doses. ...........

“We were promised a war effort, and instead we got a pillow fight.”

........... While the world dithers, the virus is evolving.

Given enough time and enough unvaccinated people, it could mutate its way past our best defenses, potentially sending the world — vaccinated and unvaccinated alike — back to square one.

......... “rich countries behaved worse than anyone’s worst nightmare.” They bypassed Covax — either completely or by slow-walking their financial contributions — cut multiple deals directly with vaccine manufacturers and bought up many more shots than they would need, long before any had been authorized for use. As a result, not only did Covax never amass the purchasing power at the heart of its plan, but also by the time the initiative secured enough funds to start buying shots, it was at the end of a long queue. ...........

Group of 7 countries are entitled to more Covax doses by the end of this year than they have pledged to donate to the initiative

. ........... the vast majority of doses pledged by Group of 7 countries in July have yet to be delivered. Also, the shots are only one item on a roster of needs that must be met for vaccination to succeed. Transportation, electricity for cold storage, trained health workers for vaccine administration and campaigns to combat hesitancy all need to be bolstered. .......... regional facilities would make it possible to create shots within 100 days of dangerous diseases emerging and to stop outbreaks before they mushroom into pandemics. Public Citizen estimated that it would take $25 billion, and about six months, to establish a network of such hubs around the world and that if officials started today, the world could have billions more doses by this time next year. .......

the biggest hurdle, by far, appears to be the obstinacy of the world’s leading vaccine makers, which have largely refused to share their technology, even when it was developed with public money.

............... Russia, for example, managed to transfer its technology to scores of smaller companies, including in the global south, in a matter of months ........ The country’s strategy was to not only license its intellectual property but also to send its experts to those companies to show them what to do. ........... a recombinant protein vaccine. It can be grown efficiently in yeast cells, has no onerous storage requirements and should be easy to mass-produce anywhere .......... a vaccine manufacturing facility that can fit inside a shipping container and could theoretically be deployed almost anywhere in the world .......... simpler technology for making mRNA vaccines: Rather than produce the necessary components through a complicated string of in vitro processes, the company grows them in E. coli bacteria ........... To resolve a collective action conundrum, she said, you need two things: a concrete goal and a convincing sales pitch. ......... Vaccinating the world against Covid will cost a lot of money, but almost any amount of money will be worth it.

The pandemic has caused the global economy to contract by trillions of dollars and will cost the world trillions more if it’s allowed to fester.

........ The president should also support

the NOVID Act, a bill that would authorize spending some $34 billion on the global vaccination effort, and direct his administration to spend the $16 billion or so that Congress has already allocated for that purpose

. Only a tiny fraction of that money has been put to use so far, an unconscionable missed opportunity. ........ The United States has untapped leverage with Moderna. The government helped pay to develop the company’s intellectual property and holds a patent on and contractual rights to it. The United States also has leverage with Johnson & Johnson, which the government paid more than $1 billion for advance purchases and research support. One idea, reported on by Nature: Nudge Johnson & Johnson to make use of factories that are currently making the Sputnik V shot, which is similar to the Johnson & Johnson shot but has run into manufacturing troubles. ........... set aside geopolitics and work with China and perhaps Russia to validate their vaccines for broader use ........ China’s vaccine producers Sinovac and Sinopharm have pledged to export two billion doses by the end of this year ......... “But the United States is supposed to stand for something bigger than just taking care of its own citizens.”

Rich Countries Worry About Booster Shots. They Should Be Worried About Africa. there’s no conclusive evidence to justify giving boosters to fit, healthy people. Third doses should be given only to the small number of people facing a high risk of severe illness and death, despite being fully vaccinated, including those with compromised immune systems. ......... Nine months after the arrival of the first vaccine, just 20 percent of people in low- and lower-middle-income countries have received a first dose — compared with 80 percent in many high- and upper-middle-income countries. .......... Today, just 51 million people — or 3.6 percent — of Africa’s population are fully vaccinated, compared with over 60 percent in the United Kingdom and the European Union and almost 55 percent in the United States. ......... Just 15 percent of the more than one billion doses pledged by high-income countries have arrived in Africa so far.

Wealthy countries must let go of reserved doses and cede their place in the queue, allowing Covax and the African Union to buy the vaccines the continent seeks and stands ready to finance.

..........

giving boosters to fully vaccinated individuals goes against rich countries’ own interests. Countries with low vaccination rates could act as variant incubators, increasing the risk that more dangerous variants will emerge and enter international travel networks.

................ We have already seen the havoc caused by the Delta variant. Now present in 180 countries, this highly transmissible variant is leading to rising deaths in many rich nations. ......... Global economic losses due to delayed vaccinations may, according to one estimate, run into the trillions of dollars in the coming years if low- and middle-income countries cannot quickly vaccinate most of their people. The International Monetary Fund recently cited access to vaccines as the “principal fault line” along which the global economic recovery is diverging. If vaccine inequity persists, growth rates in poorer countries may not return to prepandemic levels until 2024.

Can Beto Turn Texas Blue?

New York Times: September 24

The World Is at War With Covid. Covid Is Winning.

Residents of Troubled Supertall Tower Seek $125 Million in Damages The condo board at 432 Park Avenue is suing the developers for construction and design defects that have led to floods, faulty elevators, and electrical explosions.

Wonking Out: This Might Be China’s ‘Babaru’ Moment Some of us are old enough to remember when all the

Very Serious People

insisted that the fallout from the U.S. subprime debacle could be contained too. ........... Some of us still remember the Japanese bubble economy — or as the Japanese themselves called it, the “babaru economy” — of the late 1980s, when prices of many assets, above all commercial real estate, went completely crazy.

At one point it was widely claimed that the land under the Imperial Palace was worth more than the whole state of California. Then everything crashed.

............ the bursting of the Japanese bubble didn’t lead to a financial meltdown. But it

was followed by a prolonged period of economic weakness

............ Thanks to low fertility plus low immigration, Japan is a shrinking society. ........ Japan has been able to maintain more or less full employment only through constant economic stimulus: ultralow interest rates and persistent budget deficits that have pushed the national debt above 200 percent of G.D.P. ............ Negative population growth means that there’s little demand for new housing or new office buildings .........

Japan has become a country awash in savings with few places to go

......... China’s macroeconomic situation bears a striking resemblance to that of Japan around the time the Japanese bubble burst. ......... Chinese demography is looking remarkably Japanese. The working-age population peaked in 2015 .......... China, like Japan in the bubble years, has a highly unbalanced economy, with weak consumer spending and extremely high investment ........... Investment spending that exceeds 40 percent of G.D.P. perhaps make sense in an economy with a rapidly growing population — especially one in which millions of rural residents are moving to the cities — that is also catching up to wealthier nations in its technological advances. But China no longer has that kind of demography, and while it is still behind the West (and Japan) in overall technological prowess, productivity growth is slowing. .............. Evergrande may not be the moment of truth, but it is a sign that this moment is coming. And

what we don’t know is whether China has the kind of social cohesion that has allowed Japan to slow down gracefully without a social and political crisis.

Global Equity and the Covid Vaccine
Joe Manchin Got the Voting Bill He Wanted. Time to Pass It.
The Endless Catastrophe of Rikers Island
Meng Wanzhou agreed to the deal in a Brooklyn court hearing.

Trump Had a Mob. He Also Had a Plan.
Farewell, Angela Merkel. You Were Once the ‘Leader of the Free World.’ “Bye, bye, Mommy.” ........ Across the country, the departure of Ms. Merkel has brought out affectionate nostalgia, tinged with a drop of irony. Yet there’s also fatigue, verging on irritation, a twitchy restlessness to see her off and start afresh. As with most farewells, feelings are mixed. ......... The qualities that ensured her success — her caution and consistency, her firmness and diligence — are now, at the end of her tenure, leading some to regard her departure with relief. The Germany Ms. Merkel made, in nearly two decades of steady stewardship, is ready to move on. ...... She steered Germany through a series of crises — the financial crash in 2008, the euro debt crisis that followed, the migration crisis of 2015 and, of course, the pandemic. She brokered a truce, albeit a brittle one, between Russia and Ukraine, helped to negotiate Brexit and saw Donald Trump come and go. Each event had the potential to sunder the world. In part thanks to Ms. Merkel, none did. ............... Under great pressure, Ms. Merkel was a conservative in the best sense, retaining the country’s prosperity, cohesion and purpose.

Her great achievement was not what she built, but what she managed to keep.

.......... How will it navigate the increased rivalry between America and China? To what extent will it embark on a more autonomous defense strategy? And how will it combat the rise of the far right? ......... And though the share of renewable energy grew to 45 percent during her time in office, many experts agree that on its current trajectory, the country will not meet its goal of being carbon-neutral by 2045. Despite being seen abroad as the “climate chancellor,” Ms. Merkel has taken only very minor steps toward confronting the defining issue of our time. ............ Ursula Weidenfeld, an economics journalist and the author of a recent biography of the chancellor, has likened Ms. Merkel’s Germany to the Shire in J.R.R. Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings.”

Peaceful and prosperous, soothingly old-fashioned, self-satisfied to the point of delusion and naïve in a likable yet unnerving way

: The analogy is apt. .......... she fostered its peculiar detachment from the world and its unwillingness to change, innovate or even discuss different ways forward. ........... The chancellor also became stuck in her ways. Humble and unpretentious, she saw herself as a servant to her country. But in return for her service, dedication and competence, she came to expect — demand, even — blind trust. She has grown increasingly impatient with the forever chatter of Germany’s political class. .......... Ahead of one of the endless meetings with Germany’s 16 governors during the pandemic’s first wave in 2020, she reportedly complained about the “orgies of debates on reopening the country.” .......... Just a couple of years ago, Ms. Merkel was garlanded as the “leader of the free world.” Against the chaos and disruption of Mr. Trump, her sober, judicious style was widely envied.

14 Classic Recipes You Should Know by Heart Commit a few — or all — of these dishes to memory, and you’ll always have a delicious meal at the ready.

Can Macron Lead the European Union After Merkel Retires? Emmanuel Macron, the French president, would love to fill the German chancellor’s shoes. But a Europe with no single, central figure may be more likely.

For India’s Military, a Juggling Act on Two Hostile Fronts Tensions with China and Pakistan stretch a cash-starved military, while the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban removes a potential ally.

Hong Kong Is Holding Elections. It Wants Them to Look Real. China has already determined the outcome, but the government is pressuring opposition parties to participate to lend the vote legitimacy. ........ The legislative election, set for December, is the first since the Chinese government ordered sweeping changes to Hong Kong’s election system to ensure its favored candidates win. Some opposition groups have pledged to boycott in protest, and the largest of them, the Democratic Party, will decide this weekend whether to follow. But

Hong Kong officials have warned that a boycott could violate the city’s expansive national security law. After all, an election doesn’t look valid if the opposition doesn’t show up.

........... In late 2019, months of fierce antigovernment protests helped fuel an unprecedented landslide victory by pro-democracy candidates in local elections. ......... The Chinese Communist Party was determined not to see a repeat. After imposing the security law last summer to crush the protests, it quickly followed up with election changes that allowed only government-approved “patriots” to hold office. In addition,

the general public will now be allowed to choose just 20 of 90 legislators.

Most of the rest will be chosen by the electors picked last Sunday — all but one aligned with the authorities. ........... officials’ determination to make the elections look as credible as possible — even if that requires intimidating the opposition into running. .......... The purpose of the vote was to form an Election Committee, a group of 1,500 that under Beijing’s new rules will select many legislators, as well as Hong Kong’s next top leader. According to the government, the committee is a diverse microcosm of Hong Kong society. But

fewer than 8,000 residents — 0.1 percent of the population — were eligible to vote in the Election Committee poll, all drawn from a list approved by Beijing.

......... many of the opposition’s leaders have been arrested, are in exile or have been disqualified from holding government posts ........ At times, the authorities’ dedication to the veneer of public engagement verged on absurdism. The weekend before the Election Committee vote, the Central Liaison Office, Beijing’s official arm in Hong Kong,

ordered the ranks of the city’s billionaire tycoons to staff street booths and extol the virtues of the new election system

. .......... That was how Pansy Ho, the second-richest woman in Hong Kong, found herself hawking leaflets on a 92-degree day. Raymond Kwok, the billionaire chairman of one of Hong Kong’s largest developers, stayed only a few minutes, enough time to be photographed handing out fliers, before leaving. .....

There were more police deployed to guard polling stations — over 5,000 — than electors.

China Detains Business Chiefs as Its Corporate Crusade Expands The seizure of the top two leaders of HNA Group comes as speculation swirls over whether Beijing will bail out another troubled giant, Evergrande. ........ Those punishments are taking place against a broader backdrop of pressure on corporate practices that the Chinese Communist Party increasingly regards as dangerous to the economy and its own grip on power. ........... Severe troubles at HNA and Evergrande are taking place against a backdrop of broad measures by Beijing that are leaving the country’s once freewheeling private sector feeling increasingly besieged. ........ Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader, has ordered businesses to pay greater heed to the government. Legislation approved two years ago requires domestic and foreign companies alike to share extensive information about their operations in China with the government.

All but the smallest domestic and foreign companies must have Communist Party cells now.

............ The government has cracked down hard this year on the tech sector. On Friday, China stepped up its restraints on cryptocurrencies, labeling as illegal all financial transactions that involve them and issuing a nationwide ban on them. Antimonopoly measures are transforming online retailing. And days after the Didi Chuxing car-hailing service conducted an initial public offering in New York at the end of June, Chinese regulators pulled its apps from app stores and suspended new user registrations. .............. A goal of “common prosperity” has begun to supplant a previous tolerance for a private sector that grew rapidly but sometimes borrowed recklessly. .......... HNA became a symbol of the mercurial rise and profligate spending of China’s first wave of private conglomerates with strong political backing. It acquired large stakes in Hilton Hotels, Deutsche Bank, Virgin Australia and other businesses, and at its height employed 400,000 people around the world. HNA struck 123 deals in three years, only to begin running into trouble in 2017 in repaying the debt incurred to pay for its acquisitions. .......... HNA, Evergrande and other large, private Chinese companies that grew quickly only to face financial collapse in the last several years are often referred to in China as gray rhinos. The term refers to obvious dangers that are ignored until they suddenly become very dangerous, and had been taken up by Chinese officials. .........

Beijing has remained tight-lipped so far while emphasizing that no Chinese company is too big to fail.

............... The billionaire investor George Soros recently argued that an Evergrande collapse would set off a broader economic crash, while another billionaire investor, Ray Dalio, argued this week that an Evergrande default was “manageable.”

An Insider Details the ‘Black Box’ of Money and Power in China A memoir by a well-connected businessman offers insights into the Communist Party’s thinking as it tightens its grip on the private sector. ............ To build a logistics hub next to Beijing’s main airport, Desmond Shum spent three years collecting 150 official seals from the many-layered Chinese bureaucracy. To get these seals of approval, he curried favors with government officials. The airport customs chief, for example, demanded that he build the agency a new office building with indoor basketball and badminton courts, a 200-seat theater and a karaoke bar. “If you don’t give this to us,” the chief told Mr. Shum with a big grin over dinner, “we’re not going to let you build.” ................. how government officials keep the rules fuzzy and the threat of a crackdown ever-present, limiting their role in the country’s development. .......... He was once married to Duan Weihong, who was close to the family of Wen Jiabao, formerly China’s premier. Ms. Duan, also known as Whitney, was a central figure in a 2012 investigation by The New York Times into the enormous hidden wealth controlled by Mr. Wen’s relatives. Ms. Duan disappeared in September 2017, though Mr. Shum said she had reached out shortly before the book’s release to urge him to stop. ..................... Mr. Shum’s book has come out just as the future of China’s entrepreneurs is in doubt. The government has cracked down on the most successful private enterprises, including Alibaba Group, the e-commerce giant, and Didi, the ride-hailing company. It has sentenced business leaders who dared to criticize the government to lengthy prison terms. ............. “The party has an almost animal instinct toward repression and control,” Mr. Shum wrote in the book.

“It’s one of the foundational tenets of a Leninist system. Anytime the party can afford to swing toward repression, it will.”

...................... China’s business types have played an important role in lifting the country out of poverty and building it into the world’s second-largest economy — something the Communist Party is reluctant to admit. .......... “In China, power is everything, while wealth doesn’t amount to much,” Mr. Shum said in the interview.

“The entrepreneur class is a suppressed class under the party, too.”

.................. China’s Foreign Ministry said the book is full of smearing and baseless allegations about China. ......... Many businesspeople believed they could shape a liberalizing China. They sought protection of property, an independent judiciary system and a more transparent government decision-making process to better protect people — wealthy and otherwise — from the party’s power. Some raised serious issues during the government’s parliamentary sessions. Others backed nongovernment organizations, education institutions and investigative media outlets. That period was short-lived. ......... the tightening process started after the 2008 financial crisis but accelerated after Mr. Xi took the party’s helm in late 2012. ...........

“Economy used to be the first order of business,” he said. “Since Xi, there’s no doubt that politics became the driving force behind everything.”

........... Many businesspeople have managed to move at least part of their assets abroad, he said. Few make long-term investments because they are too risky and difficult. “Only idiots plan for the long term,” he said.

Ancient Footprints Push Back Date of Human Arrival in the Americas Human footprints found in New Mexico are about 23,000 years old, a study reported, suggesting that people may have arrived long before the Ice Age’s glaciers melted.

A Tour of China’s Future Tiangong Space Station
What a Fungus Reveals About the Space Program One thing’s for sure: Escaping the dung heap doesn’t come cheap.