Election 2013: The People Have Spoken

English: Election logo of Nepali Congress. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One can already see the outlines of the election results.

1. There has been an anti-incumbency wave against the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, but that does not explain their full defeat. Two and a half million people have been disenfranchised. Those were people who would have mostly voted for the Maoists and the Madhesi parties. 
2. The Nepali Congress and the UML have won rather decisively. But this is not a mandate against federalism. This is more a mandate for peace, law and order, the democratic process, and normalcy. And this is not any clear mandate against the identity based federalism that the Maoists and the Madhesis have been known for. The NC and the UML do not have even a simple majority, let alone a two thirds majority. 
3. A coalition of non-Maoist parties will likely come into power. That might include Madhesi parties. 
4. On the contentious issue of federalism the mandate is no different from what it was in the last constituent assembly, that the two sides need to work together and forge some sort of a compromise. Neither a purely identity based federalism nor a purely geographic federalism is in the cards. 
5. There has been no conspiracy. The Maoists might still have lost, but their wide loss is due to the disenfranchisement of 2.5 million voters, the anti-incumbency factor, and the people saying law and order and the economy are higher priority to them than federalism. 
6. The Maoist split hurt them big time. I am surprised the UML split has not been hurtful. 
7. The Madhesi parties have been punished for their numerous splits as predicted. But they still stand a strong chance of going back to power. The NC and the UML don't seem to have the numbers. Sadly the Madhesi parties might not unite even after this clear defeat.  
8. The Maoists and the Madhesi parties will likely do better on the indirect election side. 
9. One hopes for a new constitution by the end of 2014. Nepal needs local elections and state elections right after that. 
10. Prachanda should be elected president. That way it would be okay to keep the Maoists out of power. What are we looking at? Sushil Koirala for PM? KP Oli for DPM? Will Gagan Thapa end up in the cabinet?

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