November Polls: Who Will Win?

English: Top leaders of Nepali Congress –spokesperson Arjun Narsingh KC, vice presidents Prakash Man Singh and Ram Chandra Paudel and acting president Sushil Koirala—during the Central Working Committee meeting held at its central office in Sanepa, Lalitpur on Wednesday, September 15, 2010. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Jhalanath Khanal said during his New York trip that his party seemed to be leading in 100 of the 240 constituencies in Nepal. Sushil Koirala has claimed his party will win a two thirds majority on its own. Prachanda thinks his party will win an outright majority. The numbers don't add up. All three of them can not be right. Especially when all three have undergone vertical splits. And so all three are poised to do less well than they did in 2008.

The Terai is likely to end up with two provinces, a Madhesh in the East and a Tharuhat in the west with Chitwan in between going to one of the hill states. But the Nepali Congress is not for that. And it is no longer the in power by default party. So I see it doing less well this year than it did in 2008.

Makes me think the Madhesi parties might do better than is being predicted. Although a very, very hung parliament is a foregone conclusion.

Rajendra Mahto to me looks like is in a pretty good position. The leading Madhesi parties all are in a good position.

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