Bringing the parliament back to normal is of fundamental importance. People's duly elected representatives should get back to work. The Maoist blockade of the parliament has lasted too long.
Three Things To Worry About
I don't see the Maoists picking up arms again. That is a very remote possibility. Prachanda has made it absolutely clear if anyone is going to the jungle, it is going to the NC and the UML, not the Maoists. He can not be clearer.
The second thing to worry about is if the Maoists accept multi-party democracy or not. There also I am positive. There are still ideologues in the Maoists party who unapologetically talk of a one party communist republic, but then we also have royalists in the country. That does not mean the monarchy is ever coming back. I am not worried Nepal might end up a one party communist republic.
What does worry me is the degradation of the political culture. And there we have plenty to worry about. If the Maoists maintain their ideological confusion on multi-party democracy, the country will suffer.
Will The Madhav Nepal Government Last?
As long as he has a majority in the parliament, Madhav Nepal will continue as Prime Minister. And as long as the Maoists keep acting like maybe they still fantasize about a one party state, the 22 party coalition will likely remain intact. The novelty has worn off. The Maoists are not the untested stock they used to be. In power they showed themselves to be not that different from the Congress and the UML honchos. Prachanda's nepotism put Koirala to shame. And the Maoists are fast acquiring the image of obstructionists. At this rate I don't think they will do well at the next scheduled parliamentary elections.
There are some things that could see an end to the Madhav Nepal government. If the Sujata Koirala episode goes out of hand inside the Nepali Congress, or if the Madhesi parties become disaffected with the NC and the UML, this government could get derailed. But both those are conditional upon the Maoists making the other parties feel like they are for democracy and a multi-party culture after all. Threatening an agitation to bring down this government is not the multi-party way.The Maoists instead need to be working the parliamentary arithmetic to see if they can rework it in their favor. Their best bet might be to make all the right noises on multi-party democracy and try and wean away the Madhesi parties by promising a unified Madhes state from Rapti to Mechi rivers encompassing all the Terai districts in that belt as was the case in their original map.
Ending The Deadlock
Whether or not Madhav Nepal continues as Prime Minister is not that important. What is important is that the current political deadlock comes to an end. There is a need for a compromise position. Prachanda is wrong in suggesting Ram Baran Yadav made an unconstitutional move. It was Prachanda who made a series of unconstitutional moves. But there is a political need to give Prachanda a face saving exit. And that would be for the ruling parties to agree to amend the interim constitution to (1) more clearly define the roles of the Prime Minister and the President, and (2) make it possible for the Vice President elect to take his oath in Hindi.
Ideological Fusion
Nepal has become a curious meeting ground for the two major ideologies on the planet during the past century. It is unrealistic to expect the Maoists to totally give up and come along to the western democracy ways. Instead an ideological fusion has to be sought. Nepal has to be turned into a multi-party democracy of state funded parties. That step is what will finally put our fears about the Maoists to complete rest. After that there will be no revolution, only elections.
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