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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Madhav Nepal And Rule Of Law


Former Prime Minister Prachanda's decision to sack the army chief Katuwal lacked due process and was declared so by the president. That decision by the president was promptly challenged and taken to the Supreme Court. Madhav Nepal went ahead and nullified the decision by the former Prime Minister. He can not possibly have done that. That is a disrespect of rule of law. A case that is still being considered by the Supreme Court has to be left to the Supreme C

Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, NepalImage via Wikipedia

ourt. The Prime Minister, or the president or the parliament may not engage in such indulgences.

Madhav Nepal has made another similarly improper decision as Prime Minister. He waited for his own party to decide which UML people will represent that party in the parliament. Otherwise three top UML leaders were in major disagreement. He similarly waited for the Nepali Congress central committee to decide on which NC people will go into the government. That was also true of the TMLP, the SP and the RPP. But in the case of the MJF, Madhav Nepal at the instigation of Girija Koirala went against all the basic norms of parliamentary democracy and appointed Bijay Gachhedar as Prime Minister.

Upendra Yadav probably could take Madhav Nepal to court on that one.

andolan4Image by paramendra via Flickr



There is the law and then there is politics.

Upendra Yadav could have expelled Bijay Gachhedar as he did, but then Gachhedar has had the option to walk away with 40% or more of the MJF MPs, as he did. A split came about, although it is not formal yet because both factions are still trying to say they are the original party. Gachhedar has not registered a new party yet.

Curiously now Madhav Nepal is toying with the idea of sacking Katuwal after all. He can do that. If all his coalition partners agree, Nepal can legitimately sack Katuwal.

So there is the law, and there is politics. That also leaves the possibility of Upendra Yadav doing the Hridayesh Tripathy thing and saying let bygones be bygones, he does not want to go into power himself, and making overtures to reunify the MJF.

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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

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Saturday, June 20, 2009

What Next For The Madhesi Movement?

What Is Gachhedar Thinking?
The Implications Of A Split In The MJF
The MJF Must Stay Intact

andolan3Image by paramendra via Flickr

Analysis

Due to the high level of political consciousness achieved by the Madhesi population due to two Madhesi revolutions and one Tharu revolution, the political future of the Madhesi population is no longer tied to any particular political party. No party, be it the Madhesi parties, or the Maoists, UML, NC, can do business in the Terai without being respectful of the aspirations of the Madhesi people. Due to the Madhesi revolutions, the Madhesis already have almost proportionate representation in the parliament, although that proportionate representation has not yet extended to the other state organs more permanent in nature. Federalism has not been achieved yet, but it is on schedule. The Madhesi MPs are becoming ministers.

The vertical split in the MJF is a blow to the Madhesi movement, sure, but it is only a momentary blow. It does not undo the political consciousness achieved through the

andolan1Image by paramendra via Flickr

Madhesi revolutions.

You could argue the MJF unity became victim to the left, non-left polarization in the country, but then it is hard to argue the UML is a non-left party.

The Madhesi political leaders have failed to deliver whereas the Madhesi population has delivered time and again over the years. It is not always easy to see if it is Madhesi disunity in play, or the regular parliamentary, democratic arithmetic in motion.

The Glass Is Half Empty

The MJF split is a near fatal blow to the Madhesi movement. The idea of Nepal having a directly elected Madhesi prime minister or president has been pushed away at least a few election cycles. The disunity and discord will only continue. Both MJF factions will see major defeat during the election next year, and neither the TMLP nor the Sadbhavana will see growth. The three Pahadi led parties will come in to fill the vacuum. The ruling coalition after the election next year will exclude all the Madhesi parties because they will all be too small to matter. The Madhesi political leaders will be out of power for about four years after next year.

The idea of a party led by a Madhesi also growing in the Pahad that the MJF had made possible to an extent is temporarily out the door.

andolan2Image by paramendra via Flickr


The Glass Is Half Full

A split in the MJF means now the two MJF factions are about the same size as the TMLP, and the Sadbhavana is almost half as big as the TMLP. Now it is not at all obvious that if all the Madhesi parties were to unite and become one party then the leader of that party will be Upendra Yadav. In this scenario it has become more not less possible to push the idea of one unified Madhesi party. A party convention would decide on the leader. Let the democratic process decide.

Disarray

The reality might not be as neat as either. Not only the Madhesi parties but Nepal as a country is headed for a decade or so of political fragmentation and political paralysis. There is a lot of side drama in the political sphere, but there is no decisive positive surge for the country as a whole.

The Maoists And Multi-Party Democracy

Many factors come into play. But there is one thing more than any other that turns the tables on political progress. The Maoists must work extra hard to convince all powers foreign and domestic that they are for multi-party democracy for the long haul. They have to do that

andolan5Image by paramendra via Flickr

if they want to see progress on security sector reform, federalism and land reform.

Another Maoist, MJF Wave?

Maybe the Gachhedar faction has no mass base. It is possible that the Yadav faction will see a surge next year. One scenario is that the Maoists and the Yadav MJF see a surge during the election next year and form a ruling coalition of the two parties to last a four year term.

A Directly Elected President

We are not about to become a two party state. No one party is about to gain a majority on its own. In that scenario having a directly elected president is extra important to achi

andolan4Image by paramendra via Flickr

eve political stability.

An All Party Government In Six Months?

If this government were to collapse and make room for an all party government under Prachanda's leadership, would the two MJF factions unite or still stay separate? That is an intriguing question.

But for that all-party government to be possible, Prachanda might first have to clean house. How about expelling some hardliners from the party?

In The News

Madhesi parties to send names by today Kantipur Online While Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) and Sadbhavana Party-Anandidevi (SP-A) narrowed down differences after hours of negotiations, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) appeared to be in complete disarray. ....... For Deputy Prime Minister Bijay Kumar Gachhadar, who leads a splinter group of MJF, selecting his ministerial candidates appears to be a tough job for the simple reason: Most of his supporters are still volatile. ......... “There are chances that Gachhadar may lose his lawmakers if he fails to take a consensus decision and appease all aspirants” .......... In a meeting with his lawmakers, Gachhadar received more rebuff than support for his proposed list of ministers: Mrigendra Singh Yadav (Agriculture and Cooperatives), Sawai Dev Ojha (Women, Children and Social Welfare), Sarat Singh Bhandari (Tourism and Civil Aviation). Jitendra Dev, Asha Chaturvedi and Karima Begam were also figured in his list. ....... Gachhadar is likely to offer one post to “newcomer” R.C. Yadav, who defected from Upendra Yadav's faction. ......... TMLP has three ministerial portfolios -- Education, Industry and Youth and Sports -- and two state mi-nisterial positions. ....... Rajendra Mahato will join the Cabinet as Minister for Supplies while Laxman Lal Karna will accompany him as state minister.
Prachanda's dilemma Telegraphnepal.com Prachanda’s days in his own party remain numbered as he neither is in government nor the party’s structure remains in his grip. ..... Prachanda knows well that if his party were to survive then he must invent some schemes that unendingly weakened the current shaky coalition led by shaky Prime Minister Mr. defeated Nepal. ..... Mr. defeated Nepal’s government will not last longer. The government may collapse of its own weight and the needed extra weight will be put on place by the Maoists. ..... “I will be back in Singh Durbar after the end of the Nepali festivals”. ..... Nepalese festivals begin October and end around November. ..... Khanal is on record to have recently said that “We need a national government which must see the participation of the Maoists”. ..... both Prachanda and Khanal favor the formation of a broader Communist Front and rule the nation for all time to come. ..... Sujata only the other day advocated in favor of the Maoists and said that “without the Maoists in government, the new constitution can’t be drafted”. ..... The pretty humiliated Upendra Yadav, the erstwhile founder president of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, by default, has freshly associated himself with the Maoists. ..... Upendra Yadav is basically a MJF leader with Maoist soul. ..... Hard liners in his party, like Mohan Vaidya Kiran and Netra Bikram Chand, have been encouraging him to capture the state through the use of the streets and violence. ...... Prachanda though wants to bounce back to power through democratic means, however, his colleagues, for example, Dr. Bhattarai, Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal, Lila Mani Pokhrel, and Giriraj Mani Pokhrel have been encouraging Prachanda to go in for a fierce movement and turn the movement into a revolt and later capture the State once and for all. ..... Some even claim that the hardliners want to depose Prachanda in the process. ..... Those who want the people’s Revolution to commence at the earliest are in the majority in the party. ..... Thus Prachanda has his enemies’ right inside his own party.
Poor Nepal Kantipur Online
Politics of inclusion Republica
Poudel crushes Deuba Republica Deuba was not to be seen at the election venue when the election results were out. ....... Koirala cannot contest the post of party president at the next general convention and there is no credible candidate from the Koirala family to step into his shoes. ..... While the Deuba faction had pressed to hold the election Sunday, the Poudel faction insisted that it should be held the same evening.
Baidya slams Dahal over national unity govt "To float the concept of a national unity government again is to form another puppet government; it is nothing short of a surrender to regressive forces" ...... In his political document, Dahal opined that it would be in the best interests of the party to continue with protests in the streets and in parliament and push for a national unity government in two or three months´ time. ........ After Dahal presented his paper on Tuesday, the hardliners had met at Thapagaun in Kathmandu to chalk out their strategy, party sources said. They have argued that the ground is now ready for the Maoist party to capture state power through a "people´s revolt".
UDMF meeting put off for Sunday
Maoists for indirect election of executive prez
Waiting on Mr. Nepal After nine months of poor statecraft, coarse language, absence of accountability, unwillingness to push the constitution-writing, and willingness to maintain their private combatant force intact, it was the attempt to break the chain of command in the national army that unravelled the government. That attempt brought the entire political firmanent together to petition President Ram Baran Yadav, who decided to annul the unilateral decision by the Maoists in cabinet to sack COAS Rookmangud Katawal. ...... winning elections by breaking limbs, diverting state funds to buy arms, ideologically infiltrating the military, and misrepresenting matters to claim nearly 20,000 combatants in place of 7-8000. ..... a mix of money, state power and threat of violence. ........ The Nepal Army did conduct a dirty war during the conflict period, and accountability and justice must be sought for excesses committed. That is a separate campaign, not to be confused with the Maoist attempts to shake the military´s foundations as a way of achieving ´state capture´. ....... As for the President´s action, the fact that the matter is before the Supreme Court is irrevelant for a party used to having its way with the fist. ......... Jhala Nath Khanal has proved a reluctant supporter of his own party in government leadership. ....... the third leg of the Maoist strategy in opposition is to adopt the ultra-nationalist, anti-India stance ...... Nepal has become a trouble spot where Indian bureaucrats and politicians wade in to ‘set things right’ ........ Far from being a responsible opposition, the Maoist party today acts like a wounded carnivore, one that has been deprived of its all-consuming need for state power. ........ an all-party national unity government led by the Maoists as the largest party in the Constitutent Assembly is the only alternative if the UML-Congress-Madhesi coalition fails to stick. ........ Mr. Nepal, Mr. Koirala and Mr. Bijay Kumar Gachhedhar .......... If the three fail, we will have to turn to an all-party national unity government in the hope that the Maoists who will lead it are more restrained.
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Saturday, June 13, 2009

What Is Gachhedar Thinking?


The guy managed to engineer a vertical split in the MJF flouting all norms of parliamentary democracy. Madhav Nepal could not even have appointed people from his own party into the government before his party decided, but he went ahead and appointed Gachhedar against Gachhedar's party's official stand which at that point was to take part in the government in a way that both Yadav and Gachhedar get powerful ministries.

At best he now has about 25 MPs. And he is asking for five ministries including Home. A

andolan2Image by paramendra via Flickr

unified MJF could have got five ministries, Home included. But by now Gachhedar has become a joke. Girija Koirala and Madhav Nepal used him and discarded him.

The party is still not officially split. There still is time. He and Upendra Yadav should meet in person and sort out their differences. But since all the plum portfolios have already been taken by the NC and the UML, the MJF has only one option left: stay outside the government, support it from the outside. Gachhedar now gets to resign because he can't be the only MJF person in the government.

Now is an opportunity to engage in party building activities. If the UML-NC government does not deliver, in a few months it might be time for a Maoist-MJF government with support from many small parties. At that point the MJF can get DPM and Foreign Affairs for Yadav and Home for Gachhedar. Right now is not a good time for the MJF to get into government.

andolan1Image by paramendra via Flickr



This is what is going to happen. The NC and the UML are going to drag their feet on two mega issues:
  • Security Sector Reform.
  • Federalism.
Then the Maoists and the MJF are not going to have any option left except pull them out of power. A Maoist-MJF-TMDP-SP government is going to become possible.
  • Maoists 229
  • MJF 54
  • TMDP 21
  • SP 9
  • Total 313
Gachhedar overplayed his hand. Now he needs to wake up to the reality and start making sense.

Perhaps the TMDP and the SP should also support this government from the outside. It is only a matter of a few short months. They have not been consulted on portfolio division either.

Bhai Phoote Ganwar Loote.
Upendra Yadav's Leadership Style: Much Is Lacking

Upendra Yadav must work on his leadership style. He does not consult enough. He should, as the leader of the party, be constantly consulting with all of his MPs and all members of his central committee on all issues big and small. That is on top of holding regular meetings of the parliamentary party and the central committee, and their various committees. And he should stay in daily touch with the top five or 10 leaders in the party. When in person is not possible, he should do it by phone. If he cultivates this style, it will be rare when the party president's viewpoint is different from majority opinion inside the party. He should also consult with the district leaders of his party on a monthly basis. He should invite them over to Kathmandu regularly. He should go visit them in their district offices.

In The News

UML, NC finally settle row over portfolios NepalNews agreement was reached during a meeting between Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and NC president Girija Prasad Koirala Saturday afternoon. ....... UML will get finance, home, defence and communication portfolios while Nepali Congress will hold foreign affairs, water resources, labour, health, law and local development ministries. ...... the two parties are yet to convince other allies on the portfolio distribution.
Gachchhadar predicts trouble for govt Bijay Kumar Gachchhadar, has hinted that his party might walk out of the government if it does not get the Home Ministry. ....... "If UML and Nepali Congress want us to continue in the cabinet they must be ready to give us respectable position," Gachchhadar said ....... Gachchhadar took UML and NC to task for not consulting with his party on portfolio division ....... "We will have to think whether to stay in the government if UML and NC want the Madhesi parties to settle for the ministries left by them," he said. ...... We will help the government even if we have to stay outside ....... Gachhadar also insisted that the action taken against him and other central leaders by the MJF establishment was not a legitimate one. He said MJF's

andolan4Image by paramendra via Flickr

Parliamentary Party rebelled against chairman Upendra Yadav's autocratic style of running the party.
US sets 'conditions' for removing Maoists from terror watch list if they renounce violence, stop the violent activities of its sister organisation, the Young Communist League (YCL) and actively participate and work together with other parties to support the peace process.
Oli confers with Koirala, RJP chairman before heading off to India Oli, who is one of the main architects of the new coalition, is known to have stressed that army chief Rookmangud Katawal should be allowed to serve full term.
Khanal hopes for a compete cabinet by Sunday the current coalition government will get final shape within the next two days. ..... the party has already forwarded na

Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, NepalImage via Wikipedia

mes from UML to be inducted as ministers in the new cabinet. ..... agreed on sharing six ministries each. ..... Khanal reiterated his party’s claim for Defense, Finance, Home and Information Ministries. ...... he asked members of the Youth Force to retaliate attacks of Young Communist League (YCL)
Gachchhadar demands Home ministry Republica
NC, UML Reach Accord On Portfolio Sharing
UML to keep finance, defense, home, communications: Khanal
Army chief will complete his term: Oli to Koirala
Give full shape to cabinet soon: MPRF to PM
At the Forum Prashant Jha, Nepali Times The Forum saga has all the elements of a Bollywood potboiler: betrayal, anger, violence, money and revenge. ....... For all his self-righteousness and sudden discovery that this is an "anti federalism" alliance, Upendra Yadav has shown remarkable inconsistency. ...... He first sat out the entire army chief controversy by junketing around the globe. Returning a day after Prachanda's resignation, he immediately started aiming to become PM with Maoist support. When the numbers did not add up, he shifted allegiance to the UML-led coalition and signed the common minimum program. And though his heart was not in the arrangement, he wanted to lead the MJF in this set-up. When that did not happen, Yadav sacked Bijay Gachhedar & Co. ........ Gachhedar's aim throughout seemed to be to divide and weaken the party. He unilaterally decided to back the UML-NC combine and bargained a plum portfolio for himself. ....... He threw money around to get MPs on his side. And then using old friends like Khum Bahadur, Gachhedar got the NC patriarch to put pressure on the PM to swear him in without an official party decision. ......... The Forum was never a proper party. Just look at Bijay's far right antecedents and desire to turn the clock back to the 1990s, Upendra's radical left background and commitment to federalism and the inscrutable JP Gupta's shift from social democracy to ethnic separatism inspired by a jail stint and study of Sri Lankan Tamils. On the ground, activists who build the organisation for the Madhesi movement had to co-exist with late entrants who had opposed Madhesi issues through this period. ......... The party had its use when a broader Madhesi identity was sharpest before elections and Yadavs, Tharus and Muslims needed each other. ......... In the last year after his electoral success, Yadav had become intolerably arrogant and felt invincible. He had little time for his MPs and rarely visited the Madhes. Gachhedar, on the other hand, closely wooed parliamentary party members. ......... The NC wants to weaken the Madhesi groups to recover its Tarai base. ....... GPK's personal grudge against Upendra for defeating his daughter in Sunsari and opposing his dream of presidency last year. India was also irritated with Yadav for his intransigence on multiple issues and felt that he needed a lesson. ......... With Gachhedar, NC, UML, India and the army ganged up against him ........ There are now three key actors (Prachanda, Jhalanath Khanal, and Upendra Yadav) who want to see an end to this government. .......... In case a political vacuum does develop, the Maoists or a new force is more likely to benefit from it than traditional parties. ...... When Upendra Yadav was asked last year why he was getting people like Bijay Gachhedar into the MJF even though they had no commitment to Madhes, he replied, " "I need their experience of power politics." Looks like the experience has boomeranged.

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Thursday, June 11, 2009

The Implications Of A Split In The MJF


Looks like the MJF has formally split. Gachhedar has gone ahead and registered a new party by the name of MJF-Nepal. I guess he has named the party after the guy who made him Deputy Prime Minister.

What are the implications of this split? What are some of the possibilities?

(1) The Madhav Nepal government lasts six months, and then either there is a new Maoist-led coalition, or a new all party, national consensus government.

(2) One of the two factions withers away. The healthy faction doubles in size.

(3) The momentum and leadership of the Madhesi Movement shifts to TMDP. The Sadbhavana has more room to grow.

(4) The Nepali Congress sees a revival in the Terai.

(5) The new space from the split is taken up by the Maoists who return with a bigger share of paraliamentary seats after the election next year.

(6) The two MJF factions become one again a few weeks later after Yadav and Gachhedar think with cooler heads.

(7) The Madhesi issues are well taken care of, since there is no going back on the political consciousness of the Madhesi people. But there remain many small Madhesi parties.

(8) The Nepali Congress shrinks even further after the election next year.

Right now there is no telling what the implications will be.

If I had to take a guess, I'd say Prachanda will be back in power in about six months or less, and the TMDP will see some major growth. (I Give Madhav Nepal Six Months) But don't count Upendra Yadav out just yet.

I am not worried about the Madhesi agenda. The people have woken up. Any party that wishes to expand in the Terai will have to carry the Madhesi agenda.

Koirala Has To Be Beat At His Own Game
MJF Will Emerge Stronger
I Give Madhav Nepal Six Months
Upendra Yadav Is Going To Lead The MJF In The New Government
The Army Issue Has To Be Discussed In The Parliament
MJF: No Harm Done
Upendra Yadav Should Be Leading The MJF Team In The New Government
Contents 2009
Contents 2008
Contents 2007
Contents 2006 (2)
Contents 2006
Contents 2005
MJF: Upendra Yadav Is The Leader

In The News

Trouble deepens in MJF Kantipur Online The meeting endorsed nine proposals including Gachhadar's expulsion as Parliamentary Party (PP) leader. ..... The CC decided to initiate disciplinary action against central leaders Rabindra Thakur, Nasir Siddhiki, Asha Chaturvedi and Sanjay Sah for conspiring to break the party. ....... nominated Krishnadev Yadav, Arjun Thapa, B.P. Yadav, Umeshlal Das and Jagadish Bahadur Singh as CC members. ........ in Kathmandu, the Gachhadar-led faction formed a five-member task force to negotiate with CPN-UML and Nepali Congress on portfolio division. ...... A three-member team was named to take ahead the process of consultation with other Madhesi parties. The meeting also asked all former MJF members who had broken away from the party to return.
Gachhadhar claims being official MJF leader E Kantipur
MPs dispute over Hindi language Republica lawmakers belonging to Madhes-based parties argued that Hindi should be named as official language in the new constitution while the parliamentarians from other political parties strongly protested the proposal........ Muga Lal Yadav of Madhesi People´s Rights Forum (MPRF) and Gauri Mahato Koiri of Sadbhavana Party (SP), among others, had proposed to name Hindi as one of the official languages of Nepal in the constitution, arguing that people living in the Tarai do not understand Nepali language properly. ......... sharply divided over whether to include the term ´people´s war´ in the new constitution ....... Of the total 32 CA members present at the committee meeting, 19 voted in favor of using the term ´armed conflict´
Gachchhadar claims majority in CC, stakes claim for being official Republica CC members and ex-governor of Nepal Rastra Bank Tilak Rawal who was in neutral category on Monday said he was with the deputy prime minister.
MJF banda paralyses life in Tarai Kantipur Online
MPRF leaders from hilly districts press for unity Republica The party´s presidents from some hilly districts joined the campaign led by Rawal. ....... The party´s presidents from Kavre, Sindhupalchowk, Dolakha, Mugu and Achham districts signed the statement.
Building a coalition of hope E Kantipur The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum did not have any semblance of adopting party procedures in the way it selected its representatives to the coalition. The name notwithstanding, this coalition is anything but democratic. But the problem is not in the name alone. The current coalition was cobbled together for the expedient purpose of ousting the Maoists rather than for any concrete positive programme. The Maoists' apparent "state capture" was a lame ruse in the whole game. The fact is that the Kathmandu-style politics reminiscent of the coalition era in the 1990s has made an unapologetic comeback. Added to this is the visibly vested interest of top army generals, the Indian and other foreign establishments and the Kathmandu elite in perpetuating the existing state and social structure. Time will show the true picture, but the ongoing wrangling inside all the coalition parties over "plum" portfolios is a clear indication that the parties are hell-bent on perpetuating the politics of loot.
Fight on for party's control in MPRF Republica
MJF for ousting expelled-leaders from CA, govt Kantipur Online
Gachhadar mantra to keep MJF intact E Kantipur Gachhadar said joining the government under his leadership is the only option left for party Chairman Upendra Yadav to rule out a split in the party.

Gachhadar registers new party Himalayan Times
Upendra Yadav is a 'traitor':Beg ... She said the expulsion of seven senior leaders of the party including Bijay Kumar Gachhadar and Sharad Singh Bhandari was motivated by his own vested interests, adding that the split of the party has shattered the dreams of entire Madhesi martyrs. ...... She also revealed that Yadav had been making frequent telephone calls to lure her to his faction, adding that Yadav was crooked and corrupt person. ...... The MJF Parsa chairman Birendra Yadav and district working committee members were present on the occasion.
MJF factions exchange blows Yadav’s faction claimed that of the 35 central working committee members, 29 attended Wednesday's meeting. The meeting went on till late Wednesday evening. ..... Gachhadar wants six berths for his party.
MJF CC meeting in Birgunj Talking to journalists before the meeting, chairman Yadav accused Girija Prasad Koirala, chairman of Nepali Congress (NC) and Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal of splitting his party and being agents of India. The party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar and his supporters registered a new party Madheshi Janaadhikar Forum-Nepal in the Election Commission on Tuesday. Hence the fourth big party in the Constitution Assembly (CA) was officially divided on Tuesday.
End of Madhesi Forum: Koirala, Nepal are Indian agents, Yadav Telegraphnepal.com The Birgunj meeting began right at 12:00 noon where some 29 CC members were present out of the total 35 CC members. ..... in Kathmandu, the meeting organized by the Gachedhar Faction declared that with the Yadav faction sacking some ten central committee members the party stands formally divided now.
Nepal: Victim of wrangling in Madhesi Forum Telegraphnepal.com The Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum President Mr. Upendra Yadav, who was all set to lead the MJF delegation in the UML led government, got stunned when the party’s leader of the CA delegation Mr. Bijaya Kumar Gacchedhar unilaterally took the decision that he will lead the MJF and was thus later sworn-in as the deputy prime minister of the country on June 4, 2009....Mr. Yadav categorically blamed the Nepali Congress, UML and Tarai Madhesh Loktantrik Party for creating fissures in the Madhesi Forum camp.
Nepal's Terai-based party moves towards formal split Zee News
Maoists, key Madhesi group enforce shutdown in 30 districts Press Trust of India
Nepal's Maoists 'threaten' to take up arms again Times of India
Sujata elevated as Nepal's Foreign Minister, party feud continues Telegraphnepal.com Keeping the intense inner party feud in the Nepali Congress, the United Marxist Leninists and the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum intact ..The MJF has forwarded claims for Five Ministers and four State ministers ..... Upendra Yadav, the MJF party president called it a conspiracy hatched by the UML, NC and Tarai Madhesh Loktantrik Party to bring about a split in the Madhesi Forum. .... Decision in favor of Sujata was made at a time when Sushil Koirala and Ram Chandra Poudel were out of the valley. .... Dr. Rizal is a US Green card holder. ..... Except Sujata- a defeated CA election candidate, majority of the ministers representing the NC are considered as close to the Sher Bahadur Deuba faction ....The UML which is engulfed in inner party feud between the party president Jhala Nath Khanal Faction and senior leader K.P. Oli faction could not sort out the list of leaders to represent the party in the government.
Nepali cabinet expanded with 8 more ministers sworn in People's Daily Online The cabinet expansion has seen dissent among almost all the constituent parties.
Gachchhadar reassures MJF support to govt Nepalnews.com

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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Koirala Has To Be Beat At His Own Game

andolan1Image by paramendra via Flickr

Gachchhadar faces action Earlier on Thursday morning, Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala asked Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal over the phone to appoint Gachchhadar as deputy prime minister ..... Koirala made the request to Nepal after he held a meeting with Gachchhadar at Koirala residence at Maharajgunj. NC leader Khum Bahadur Khadka accompanied Gachchhadar during the meeting.
Girija Koirala has to be beat at his own game for his recent foul play with the MJF. The need of the hour is to bring the party back from the brink of a vertical split and reunify it.

Upendra Yadav has to face the fact that him becoming Prime Minister was never an option this past month. Prachanda was never serious about the offer. The way for a MJF person to become Prime Minister is by winning big in the election next year. And you can't even win if you split the party, let alone win big.

A sane revival plan for the Nepali Congress would be to usher in a new era of internal democracy, to say good bye to the culture of nepotism. A sane revival plan would be to try and meet the aspirations of the Madhesi people who until recently were the base of that party. But instead the Nepali Congress is worse today on internal democracy and nepotism than it was last year. It stands clueless on federalism and security sector reform. Those who talk of the five development regions are not talking about federalism.

The Nepali Congress will see a bigger defeat next year than it did last year. The MJF decimated the Nepali Congress last year in the Terai. Next year the MJF has to wipe out the Nepali Congress from the Terai. For that the MJF has to stay united.

Splitting the party makes absolutely no sense.

Internal democracy means Upendra Yadav might no longer be leading the party down the line. At the next convention the party might elect someone else. That is the democratic way. If all the Madhesi parties unite, as I hope they do before the elections next year, then that unified party would hold a new convention. That convention would elect a new leader to the party. That new leader could be anybody. Could be Upendra Yadav, could be Bijay Gachhedar, could be Hridayesh Tripathy, could be Rajendra Mahto, could be Sarita Giri, could be Jay Prakash Gupta. It is for the democratic process to decide who. And once decided there has to be a post election reconciliation among all the contenders for the top job.

Critiquing Upendra Yadav's Leadership Style

His primary downside has been that he does not consult enough. Someone in his position needs to constantly be consulting with all his MPs, all members of his central committee, as many district leaders as possible. Keep alive as many bilateral channels of communication as possible. Seek out a wide range of people to ask for their opinions before making decisions small and big. Make people feel included in all decision making processes. Have robust discussions among the top leaders on a wide variety of topics on a regular basis. This is something he needs to work on.

The MJF Must Stay Intact
MJF: Is Reconciliation Possible?
The MJF Drama

Sketch portrait of Girija Prasad Koirala, Prim...Image via Wikipedia


MJF Will Emerge Stronger
I Give Madhav Nepal Six Months
Upendra Yadav Is Going To Lead The MJF In The New Government
The Army Issue Has To Be Discussed In The Parliament
MJF: No Harm Done
Upendra Yadav Should Be Leading The MJF Team In The New Government
Contents 2009
Contents 2008
Contents 2007
Contents 2006 (2)
Contents 2006
Contents 2005
MJF: Upendra Yadav Is The Leader

In The News

MPRF toward vertical split after Gachchhadar faction claims official party Republica Sixteen Central Committee (CC) members of the Madhesi People´s Rights Forum (MPRF) led by senior leader Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar filed a petition at the Election Commission claiming the party´s name, flag and symbol, thereby pushing the party ultimately toward an unavoidable split. ....... The NGO-turned party, the fourth largest in the Constituent Assembly (CA), has been facing an internal conflict over the last one month after the fall of the Maoist-led government on May 4. ....... Gachchhadar said he was compelled to move the Election Commission after the Yadav-faction turned down repeated offers over the last five days for reconciliation and unity in the party.

andolan5Image by paramendra via Flickr

....... Gachchhadar said that the party can still remain intact if the action taken against the seven leaders is revoked. ..... “They are no longer our party´s members and any move by them is not legal,” said Yadav ..... A telephone interview of 32 CC members done by myrepublica.com on Monday had found 11 members supporting Gachchhadar.
Gachchhadar claims majority in CC, stakes claim for being official
NC, UML cadres warned to leave village
Neither faction has majority in MPRF central committee
3 contenders for home ministry in UML
Gachchhadar claims majority in CC, stakes claim for being official

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The MJF Must Stay Intact

Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum, NepalImage via Wikipedia

The most important thing for now is to make sure the MJF does not split. If joining the Madhav Nepal government keeps the MJF intact, the party should join the government. If staying outside the government keeps the MJF intact, the party should stay outside the government. If keeping Bijay Gachhedar Deputy Prime Minister keeps the MJF intact, Gachhedar should stay on as Deputy Prime Minister. If making Upendra Yadav Deputy Prime Minister keeps the MJF intact, Yadav should be made Deputy Prime Minister.

The MJF was a party born out of identity politics. That identity politics has gone one step further. The Yadavs, Tharus, and the Muslims are three equally numerous, proud groups in the Terai. The Yadavs have to remember that. If the MJF central committee has too many Yadavs, the parliamentary party has a better balance of Yadavs and non-Yadavs.

gonarpuraImage by paramendra via Flickr


It is a good thing if the party has several strong personalities at the central level. Upendra Yadav is a Yadav. Gachhedar is a Tharu. Gupta is a non-Yadav. Karima Begam is a Muslim. Sharad Singh Bhandari is a Pahadi origin Teraiwasi whose family has lived in the Terai a few generations. Those are all important constituent groups in the Terai. It is important to strike the right power balances and keep the party intact.
  • Upendra Yadav and Bijay Gachhedar, meet in person, one on one.
  • Jay Prakash Gupta, Sharad Singh Bhandari, make that happen. (Bhandari won by a margin of a hundred votes last year. If the party splits, he is not coming back to the parliament, that part is guaranteed.)
  • Seek a compromise formula.
  • Let Bijay Gachhedar keep the DPM chair for six months, and Upendra Yadav for the other six months. This government is going to last but a year max.
  • Seek a powerful ministry for Upendra Yadav.
  • Bargain for the maximum number of berths for the MJF in the cabinet.
  • Bring back all the expelled leaders.
  • Keep the party intact.
Putting The MJF Fire Out
MJF: Is

andolan5Image by paramendra via Flickr

Reconciliation Possible?
The MJF Drama
MJF Will Emerge Stronger
I Give Madhav Nepal Six Months
Upendra Yadav Is Going To Lead The MJF In The New Government
The Army Issue Has To Be Discussed In The Parliament

andolan2Image by paramendra via Flickr


MJF: No Harm Done
Upendra Yadav Should Be Leading The MJF Team In The New Government
Contents 2009
Contents 2008
Contents 2007
Contents 2006 (2)

andolan3Image by paramendra via Flickr


Contents 2006
Contents 2005
MJF: Upendra Yadav Is The Leader
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Putting The MJF Fire Out

MJF: Is Reconciliation Possible?
The MJF Drama
MJF Will Emerge Stronger
I Give Madhav Nepal Six Months
Upendra Yadav Is Going To Lead The MJF In The New Government
The Army Issue Has To Be Discussed In The Parliament
MJF: No Harm Done
Upendra Yadav Should Be Leading The MJF Team In The New Government
Contents 2009
Contents 2008
Contents 2007
Contents 2006 (2)
Contents 2006
Contents 2005
MJF: Upendra Yadav Is The Leader



The most important thing for the MJF right now is to make sure the party does not split. And the way to resolve all outstanding issues is through dialogue and open voting. Bijay Gachhedar showing majority support in both the central committee and the parliamentary party is a turning point, if he has done that.

The physical attack on some of the women lawmakers of the MJF in Birgunj is shameful.

Majority vote gets to make the decisions. If that means that the party president's line of thinking ends up in the minority then he simply has to accept that.

How to prevent a vertical split?
  1. Upendra Yadav and Bijay Gachhedar should meet in person, one on one.
  2. They should go back to square one.
  3. I think it is fair to say Gachhedar has to resign from the cabinet. Or Upendra Yadav could exhibit some magnanimity and let it be.
  4. The two need to realize that there will be elections in less than a year. If the party splits now, both factions will lose. People who are MPs now will not come back to the parliament. They must stay united if they are to have a shot next year.
It is ridiculous that Madhav Nepal and Girija Koirala connived to bring about this split. The MJF had already decided to join the Madhav Nepal government. And it had already been decided that Bijay Gachhedar was going to get a powerful ministry. But that was not enough. The Nepal-Koirala duo went ahead and appointed Gachhedar the Deputy Prime Minister.

It is not easy to wake up an oppressed people like the Madhesis are. It is not easy to unite leaders of an oppressed community. Infighting happens very easily. That is but a symptom of powerlessness.

Upendra Yadav's Mistakes
  • Why did he not get himself elected parliamentary party leader after the April 2008 election last year?
  • His leadership style has had its weak points. As the party leader he should constantly be seeking out all his MPs and all members of his central committee one on one. What do you think of this? What do you think of that? He has become aloof since getting into power last year.
  • He misread the mood inside his party and inside the country regarding the Maoists. Many people felt it was a choice between Maoist autocracy and a new government in Madhav Nepal's leadership. For him to try to push the line to support the government from the outside was a wrong one.
  • When a large number of his MPs came out openly supporting Gachhedar, he should have made an extra effort to reach out to them.
Bijay Gachhedar's Mistakes
  • The number one thing Bijay Gachhedar has to realize right now is that if the party splits, he is not going to come back to the parliament next year. He is going to lose the election next year.
  • That is going to be extra true of many of the other MPs.
  • Bijay Gachhedar has to realize that Prachanda, Madhav Nepal and Girija Koirala all want the MJF to split. Prachanda offered the Prime Ministership to Upendra Yadav without meaning to. Now Koirala and Nepal have put Gachhedar in the Deputy Prime Minister's chair with the sole intention of splitting the MJF. There is no other purpose.
  • If Gachhedar is no longer a MP next year, he is going to be out of the political scene for the next four years.
  • And the way things are looking, the Madhav Nepal led government might not last six months. Then what? Will he split the party just to be Deputy Prime Minister for a few short months? That is not worth it.
How To Seek Middle Ground?
  • The number one thing for the two leaders to do is to meet in person. Stop talking through the media. Stop talking through supporters.
  • Agree to seek middle ground.
  • Upendra Yadav should come out fully wanting to participate in the Madhav Nepal government. A lot of his MPs are unhappy that he wants to stay out of the government.
  • Upendra Yadav should even be willing to accept Bijay Gachhedar as Deputy Prime Minister for a few months. Strike out a compromise formula. Both Bijay Gachhedar and Upendra Yadav get powerful ministries. Bijay Gachhedar stays DPM for six months, then Upendra Yadav becomes DPM for the final six months.
  • Bring back all the expelled leaders into the party fold.
  • Claim unity.
  • If they can do that, this will have been political jujutsu. You win over Nepal and Koirala at their own game. You fooled them into thinking you were fighting. And look what happened? The MJF got the Deputy Prime Ministership without being the second largest party.
Starting Point

The starting point for all further negotiations has to be that splitting the party is not an option. That will be political harakiri. If they split, both factions will end up being irrelevant in about a year. People will say, there used to be a Terai Congress, there also used to be a MJF.

I think Jay Prakash Gupta and Sharad Singh Bhandari could play important conciliatory roles right now.

Stay united now, and the MJF has a shot at the Prime Ministership next year. Split now and Yadav and Gachhedar are not even going to be MPs in a year.

In The News

MJF meeting venue turns into battleground; three lawmakers among those hurt NepalNews cadres of the rival factions engaged in violent clashes ...... Seven persons including three lawmakers of Gachchhadar faction, Durga Devi Sha, Kalawati Paswan and Karima Begum, who were leading the protesting group, were injured in the clash. ...... 26 out of the 35 central committee members are participating in the central committee meeting. ...... MJF has been virtually split with the Gachchhadar faction submitting the signatures of majority central committee members and lawmakers at the Election Commission on Tuesday
Gachchhadar informs EC he has majority in MJF Gachchhadar reached the commission office in Kantipath along with 17 central committee members and 29 lawmakers and informed the EC that he has support from 50 percent central committee members and 65 percent of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) lawmakers.
PM Nepal extends olive branch to Maoists as latter reciprocates with pre-condition
MPRF toward vertical split after Gachchhadar faction claims official party Republica
MPRF toward vertical split after Gachchhadar faction claims official party
MPRF rival factions clash, 3 CA members injured Durga Devi Mahato, Kalawati Paswan and Karima Begam ...... supporters of the Yadav faction chased away the rival group with wooden sticks and targeted them with bricks. A motorcycle Begam was riding vandalized in the clash. ..... Organizing a press conference in the evening, the CA members beaten up in the afternoon said that they are hurt by the tendency of Madhesi leaders to hire gangsters to beat up Madhesi women. ..... Paswan said that she did not have any alternative to crying when an unruly mob dragged her in the middle of the road. ...... Durga Devi, another CA member injured in the clash, alleged that Upendra Yadav was not a leader of Madhesi people. “He spent almost nine months visiting abroad at expense to state coffers,” she said. “He has now become a treacherous leader instead of a messiah of Madhesis.” ...... She alleged that they were attacked in a planned manner as they did not sign papers as asked by party chairman Yadav to show a majority in his favor. ....... Altogether 16 of the 35 central committee members, led by parliamentary party leader Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar, had filed a petition at the EC on Tuesday. “A majority has been shown by including the names of even those expelled by the party’s central committee,” he said. “That is meaningless.”
1. Chairman Upendra Yadav
2. General Secretary Ramsahay Yadav
3. Secretary Ratneshwor Lal Kayastha
4. Treasurer Renu Yadav
5. Lalbabu Raut
6. Mohammad Khalid Siddique
7. Mohammad Istiyaque
8. Abdul Jabbar
9. Ram Lal Sutiyar
10. Jay Prakash Yadav ´Rahul´
11. Rabindra Yadav
12. Ranju Verma
13. Dev Narayan Yadav
14. Ganesh Yadav
15. Sahashram Yadav
16. Shivaji Prasad Yadav
17. Kabuli Paswan
18. Bijay Yadav
19. Krishnadev Yadav
20. BP Yadav
21. Umesh Lal Dash
22. Arjun Thapa
23. Jagadish Singh
24. Nandan Datta
25. Dr Rambir Ray
26. Yogendra Sahni
JP Gupta in India
Chairman Yadav also termed Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal and Nepali Congress President and former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala as Indian agents. He claimed that the two party leaders have a main role in bringing the Madhesi People’s Rights Forum to the verge of a split. ...... A central committee meeting of the MPRF faction led by Yadav concluded in Birgunj Wednesday by passing a nine-point decision. ........ The meeting demanded formation of a national government for writing a new constitution and promoting inclusive democracy in the country. ........ The meeting also decided to take disciplinary action against four others, besides the seven CC members including the party’s parliamentary leader Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar. The four are Rabindra Thakur, Nasir Siddhiqi, Asha Chaturbedi and Sanjaya Kumar Sah. The meeting formed a three-member election committee to pick a new parliamentary party leader. ....... another MPRF faction led by Gachchhadar also held its Central Committee meeting in Kathmandu Wednesday. ....... formed a three-member committee to look for a new party office. ..... Dev said the meeting also formed a five-member committee with Gachchhadar as head to finalize the power-sharing in the new government ....................... A leader said Joint-Chairman Jay Prakash Gupta is absent as he is currently in India. ..... Nehal Khan, vice chairman of the party´s Birgunj Municipality unit, distributed a list of the 26 members to reporters at the venue.
Gachchhadar claims majority in CC, stakes claim for being official The internal conflict reached a decisive phase last Thursday when Prime Minister Nepal appointed Gachchhadar deputy prime minister though the later´s name was not approved by his own party. ........ Gachchhadar said that the party can still remain intact if the action taken against the seven leaders is revoked. ..... CC members close to Gachchhdar said that they have not been invited to the CC meeting which is expected to endorse the action against the seven leaders. ...... A telephone interview of 32 CC members done by myrepublica.com on Monday had found 11 members supporting Gachchhadar. ........ Gachchhadar is now short of just two members for a majority in the party´s 35-member Central Committee. ....... According to Election Commission law, the faction with a majority of CC members behind it will have the party name, flag and election symbol. .... Gachchhadar also submitted the signatures of 29 CA members representing the MPRF to the Constituent Assembly, reinforcing his support to the government. MPRF has 53 members in the CA.
Neither faction has majority in MPRF central committee
Fight on for party's control in MPRF
MPRF toward vertical split after Gachchhadar faction claims official party


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