Permutations And Combinations

पाँच बुँदा, पाँच चुनाव
Proposed Constitution
Mantra: Economic Revolution

Next Government

Scenario 1: An all party government: not very likely. The largest party gets the prime ministership, the second largest gets the ceremonial presidency, the third largest gets the speakership, the fourth largest gets the deputy speakership. The cabinet positions are in direct proportion to each party's weight with the smallest parties getting one each.

Scenario 2: No party gets more than 20% of the votes. You will need three or more parties to come together to form a government.

• It could be the UML, NC and the three Madhesi parties.
• It could be the UML, the Maoists and three Madhesi parties.
• It could be the UML, the NC and the MJF.
  
• It could be the NC and the MJF.
• It could be the UML and the MJF.
  

Scenario 3: It is one of the above, but the government lasts only a year. A new combination takes shape in a year.

Recommendation

An all party government is highly recommended. You will need two thirds majority for each article to the next constitution anyway. A simple majority does not get to write the constitution. So if there is an all party government, it will become easier to do the work on the constitution.

Largest Parties

The UML might emerge the largest party in the hills and the MJF might emerge the largest party in the Terai. That is what I am guessing right now.

20%

I have a feeling no party will get more than 20% of the votes cast. It will most definitely be a hung assembly.




In The News

Nepal decides today Himalayan Times 17.6 million voters eligible to cast votes in over 22,000 polling booths • More than 3,900 from 55 parties in fray for FPTP ...... Under PR system, there are a total of 5,701 candidates from 54 parties.
First result expected tomorrow: CEC results could be expected from Friday and added that the tentative position of the parties would be clear within 10 days.

चुनाव निष्पक्ष भए ठूला दल जा“चिने Kantipur
माओवादी आक्रमणहरूमा ६८ कार्यकर्ता घाइते तीनजना अपहरित, १९ बेपत्ता

Nepal Prepares for End of Monarchy Time
Fear and voting in the Tarai Nepali Times At 33, Ajay Gupta has come a full circle. After starting out as a Sadbhabana activist, quitting the party when Badri Mandal and Anandi Debi split, winning the royal municipal elections to become Gaur mayor as an independent, allegedly encouraging the massacre of Maoists last year, and joining the TMLP for two months, Gupta has returned to Sadbhabana as their candidate for Rautahat 1. ........ Gupta’s bright prospects represent a change in electoral dynamics from Rautahat to Sunsari over the past two weeks. Madhesi parties are finally picking up steam, with more active campaigning. They are making inroads in most seats in the eastern Tarai. The question is, can they capitalise on it in the last three days? ..... The MJF was relatively strong, but the TMLP and SP are also picking up. For its part, NC is facing an uphill battle in most areas of its traditional vote banks in the eastern Tarai, especially in Dhanusha, Siraha, Saptari and Sunsari. ..... Jwala is trying to patch up with Goit’s group. And royalists are threatening more blasts to provoke communal violence. ............ Singh was a student at Delhi’s JNU, and after the king’s coup of 1 February 2005 introduced Nepali political exiles to the Indian bureacuracy. From messenger, Singh soon became a player in talks between Koirala, Prachanda and India. ...... Thakur will win easily.
After 4/10 The electoral violence in the Madhes could have been a lot worse. Violations of the code of conduct are within South Asian norms. ..... Armed groups are reconciled to polls. ..... there will be almost 115 Madhesis in the PR list and tentatively 60-70 elected Madhesis through FPTP. ..... It is time to think of a Madhesi chairing the constituent assembly. ...... The most important battle will now be the shape of the federal structure. ..... leaders are already competing to become the first chief minister of the Madhes.

YCL rampage unrelenting Kantipur the YCL workers attacked and injured Nepali Congress (NC) candidates in Puythan and Nawalparasi districts. ..... In Nawalparasi too, Maoist cadres at Kawasoti attacked a jeep that NC candidate of constituency 3, Omkala Gautam, was riding, injuring her as well a half a dozen NC cadres. The Maoist cadres, following the attack, also flipped over the jeep on the highway and vandalized six motorcycles used by NC cadres. Later, when police reached the site, the Maoists turned on them, injuring two of them, police said.
Baburam threatens takeover in 10 minutes
Maoists ready to accept any outcome of CA polls: Prachanda The party also claimed that opposition parties had conspired to defame the party and its youth front, Young Communist League, by highlighting “minor” incidents.
UML chief says, Maoist obstructive activities ongoing fearing defeat Nepal called on all not to be disheartened by the exhibit of weapons.
पौडेलको सभा बिथोल्ने प्रयास
सबै परिणाम आउन दर्ुइ साता लाग्ने
चुनावी सभामा गोली प्रहार
उम्मेदवार अपहरित
दलहरूबीच द्वन्द्व, सुरक्षा कमजोर
थापालाई अवरोध

CPN-M will accept poll result: Mahara NepalNews

मधेसी उम्मेदवार कम Kantipur कांग्रेसले संविधानसभाको कुल २ सय ४० प्रत्यक्ष सिटमा ५० -२० दशमलव ८३ प्रतिशत), एमालेले ६६ -२७ दशमलव १९ प्रतिशत) र माओवादीले ७२ जना -३० प्रतिशत) मधेसी मूलका उम्मेदवार उठाएका छन् ... तर्राई मधेस लोकतान्त्रिक पार्टर्ीीतमलोपा) ले ८ दशमलव ५१, मधेसी जनअधिकार फोरमले ६ दशमलव ७९ र सद्भावना पार्टर्ीी ५ दशमलव ७४ प्रतिशत पहाडी मूलका उम्मेदवार उठाएका छन्
सहमतिबिना सेना परिचालन हु“दैनः यादव मन्त्री यादवले आफू वास्तविक मन्त्री नभएको र वास्तविक मन्त्री गिरिजा र सुजाता रहेको बताए