Political Deadlock And New Middle Ground: Published By NepalNews.com

Article published by NepalNews.com on November 4.
Written and sent on November 2.

Political Deadlock And New Middle Ground

The Maoist demands for an immediate declaration of a republic and fully proportional elections to the constituent assembly and the Nepali Congress' utter refusal to go for either resulted in postponed elections and the most acute political deadlock after the historic April Revolution, as yet unresolved.

There is no going back to the status quo of mixed elections and waiting on the question of republic. And forcing a vote on the issue will likely result in a breakdown of the seven party alliance and a knottier deadlock. If the Maoists were to walk out of the interim parliament, the country will face a grave crisis. Compromise has to be sought on both issues.

The solution is to find new ground by triangulating the position of the Maoists and that of the Congress. One, pass a commitment proposal on a republic to be formalized by the first session of the assembly. Two, have 75 multi member constituencies, which would be a half way meeting point between the two forces. That arrangement also happens to be the most popular form of elections in the world. How does it work?

75 Multi Member Constituencies

You would hold elections for a total of 240 seats: 500 is too many. I believe 49% of those are allocated for the Terai districts. We already know how many seats are to be allocated for each district. So if there is a district that has one seat, all parties will put up one candidate each, the one with the highest number of votes gets that seat. If a district has two or more seats, you use the "largest remainder formula."

So if a district has two seats, and a total of 100,000 votes are cast, the quota is 50,000. A party that gets 50,000 votes gets one seat. But if that party gets 60,000 votes, it uses 50,000 votes for one seat, and it has a "remainder" of 10,000 votes. Say the Nepali Congress gets 60,000 votes, the UML gets 25,000 votes, and the Maoists get 15,000 votes. Then the Congress will use up 50,000 votes to get one seat, the top name on its list of two candidates. Then in the round two tally, you are looking at the Congress with 10,000 votes, the UML with 25,000 and the Maoists with 15,000 votes. The UML gets the second seat.

Say you have a district that has seven seats and 350,000 votes. Then the quota is 50,000 votes. Each party puts out a list of seven candidates each. And there are some independents also running. The vote count is as follows: Nepali Congress 60,000, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum 70,000, Nepal Sadbhavana Party 40,000, the UML 45,000, the Maoists 50,000, RPP 10,000, RJP 5,000, Independent A 50,000, and Independent B 20,000.

Round 1, the Nepali Congress uses up 50,000 votes to get one seat, the MJF also uses up 50,000 votes to get one seat, the Maoists use up their 50,000 votes to get one seat, and Independent A the same way. Of the seven seats four are gone.

Now you are left with three seats and the following vote tallies: Congress 10,000, MJF 20,000, Sadbhavana 40,000, UML 45,000, RPP 10,000, RJP 5,000, and Independent B 20,000. The three with the highest votes will get the three remaining seats, namely the UML, the Sadbhavana and the MJF.

I believe this formula of having 75 multi member constituencies with a fully PR system of closed lists and the largest remainder formula is the middle ground where the Maoists and the Congress can meet, and can hold elections in April.

New Parties, New Peace Talks

You will also have to allow until February for more new parties to register. When you postpone elections, you have to publish a full elections schedule all over again, and that allows for the registration of new parties.

And holding respectful dialogue with the armed Madhesi groups would be nice. You are looking at freeing a few tens of people form jail and feeding maybe 3,000 people for a few months after putting them in cantonments. That is a small price to pay for peace.

You don't want to not take this small step and have to postpone the elections again come April.

Bye Bye Federalism?

I have been a proponent of a federal democratic republic. But I have also wondered if Nepal can stay a unitary state and still become an inclusive democracy. I think it is possible if certain conditions are met.

1. Hold direct elections for the country's president. If no one candidate gets at least 50% of the votes, a second round between the top two candidates is held within a month.
   
2. Have an upper house of 100 members to be elected through a fully PR election. The human right to peaceful assembly means you can not make laws barring parties to be organized along ethnic lines, for example.
   
3. Have a lower house of 300 members that is elected through the 75 multi member constituency formula.
   
4. Any party that gets at least 1% of the votes in an election for either house is a national party and is state funded. The fund is in direct proportion to how many votes were earned. Parties may not raise any other funds.
   
5. Half of the national budget is to be directly transferred to the 75 districts based on the population of each district.
   
6. Each district president is to be directly elected. Each district is also to have a district assembly. Each district may decide on a second and a third language for use in its local administration, to be confirmed by the national parliament.
   
7. The education system shall follow a tri-lingual policy up to Class 10, beyond which it is for each individual institution to decide on their own as to the language of instruction. The first language is to be the student's first language, the second language is to be Nepali. For those for whom Nepali might be their first language, the student may choose any language spoken in Nepal. The third language is to be English, the contemporary global language of science and commerce. This policy applies to schools in both the private and the public sectors. The language of instruction for all other subjects to Class 10 will be a decision to be made by the individual school board for the public schools and by the owners of the private schools: it is to be one of the three - Nepali, Hindi, and English - or a combination. Other languages spoken in Nepal may also be added to the list after an autonomous, federal Education Commission decides that enough educational material is available in the said language.
   

If we could move towards something along these lines, we might not need federalism.


In The News

Koirala ‘rejects’ idea of announcing republic immediately NepalNews deep distrusts were developing among the seven parties due to the Maoists. ..... the current lack of trust was causing political instability and hurting law and order situation in the country.
Left parties continue efforts for a compromise
NC leaders criticise Maoists
Riot victims announce indefinite bandh in Kapilvastu
House suspended for two days as leaders promise to find compromise by then
Polarisation begins among parties as voting in parliament approaches Nepal Workers and Peasants Party and the Left Front led by CP Mainali today have rejected the idea of a united front at this hour.

Terai Army owns up Birgunj explosion Kantipur four street cobblers and a villager of Pakahamainpur VDC were injured. ... The district administration informed that it was directed to treat the injured for free.
PM says Maoist demands threatening SPA unity Nepali Congress which has out right rejected the Maoist demand of full PR system. ...... Nepali Congress leaders agreed to proclaim a republic through parliament but leave the implementation till after the first meeting of the elected constituent assembly
Top leaders making last ditch efforts to reach consensus on Maoist motions "All the parties in parliament that accept a republic and a proportional system will come together during the voting in case it does take place," said Prachanda after a meeting of all the ruling left parties at the CPN (Maoist) parliamentary party office.
US to put pressure on India and Bhutan to resolve refugee problem
NC agrees republic proclamation

Last-minute efforts by parties to strike a deal NepalNews

House adjourned till Friday; leaders still hope for a breakthrough NepalNews
PM hopeful of ending political deadlock
UML decides to make efforts to keep intact alliance UML's amendments proposals state that the interim parliament would make commitment for establishment of republic to be approved by the first sitting of the constituent assembly and adopting mixed election system with guarantee that all sections of people are fairly represented.
One killed in Birgunj blast, six injured The person who was killed is said to have carried the pressure cooker bomb, which exploded. He has not yet been identified.
Journalist abduction case: NHRC report, too, points finger at Maoists
Parties engage in bilateral, multilateral discussions The UML has called its standing committee meeting after the top leaders of the party agreed to vote in favour of announcing commitment proposal for republic through interim parliament and proportional representative election system. The top leaders of the three communist groups, Maoists, UML and the Masal, on Wednesday evening, had agreed to vote in favour of republic and proportional representative election system.
Traders and govt officials in Saptari up in arms, demand security guarantee Complaining of constant threat and extortion demands for hundreds of thousands of rupees, the traders resorted to agitation. They accused the administration of becoming a silent spectator. ...... following the killing of a District Development (DDC) official Prabhu Yadav by unknown assailants a few days ago and continued abductions of VDC secretaries, the government employees shut down the District Administration Office, district-based land revenue, forest, DDC and banks. ...... secretary of Banainiya VDC of Saptari district Amir Yadav, who was abducted by Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM-Jwala Singh) last week, has been released safely. However, the whereabouts of another VDC secretary Jeewan Dhital of Chandralalpur VDC, who was also abducted by JTMM-Jwala Singh, still remains unknown
Displaced families to get Rs 50,000 as monetary assistance

Mukherjee meets PM Koirala; Prachanda visits Indian embassy