Thinking Through This Jolt To The Transition

Who Is To Blame?

The primary blame goes to Girija. He is the Prime Minister. He is the one who has to take ultimate responsibility. The best thing to do would have been to find middle ground. He should have told the Maoists the republic issue will be settled after the elections, but that he will agree to hold a completely PR election to the assembly. That, by the way, has also been the key demand of the Madhesi and the Janajati groups.

Curiously, that continues to be the only way to move forward. Unless the Nepali Congress agrees to hold completely PR election to the constituent assembly, that election might never take place. So why delay?

Can And Should The Interim Parliament Be Dissolved?

Only the interim parliament itself or a revolution could dissolve the interim parliament. Will the interim parliament dissolve itself? That is highly unlikely. It is even harder to imagine a revolution whose express goal might be the dissolution of the interim parliament.

For all its inadequacies, the interim parliament does have its place. It has been a necessary counterbalance to the palace and the army as a power center. An interim cabinet on its own will not have that kind of weight to provide the necessary counterbalance.

But the interim parliament must be dissolved a month before the campaign for the elections to the constituent assembly begins. That is but standard procedure.

Can Girija Be Sacked?

There is this ridiculous provision in the interim constitution that says only a two third majority can sack the Prime Minister. I do think Girija should be sacked for his utter incompetence but the first step in that direction would be a constitutional amendment that says a simple majority can sack the Prime Minister.

Another way to get someone else for Prime Minister would be if the Nepali Congress itself put forth someone else. How likely is that? Not very likely right now.

Why Can't The UML And The Maoists See Eye To Eye?

For the same reason that Hridayesh Tripathy and Rajendra Mahto can not see eye to eye. For the same reason that Upendra Yadav and Kishor Kumar Bishwas can not see eye to eye. The powerless have a tendency to not team up. The powerless have a tendency to engage in infighting.

Both the UML and the Maoists know their primary opponent in terms of class struggle is the Nepali Congress. But they are reluctant to take the few steps on their parts that will make it possible for the two to team up.

Between them the UML and the Maoists have enough votes in the interim parliament to shake things up.

Right now it is imperative that the UML gangs up with the Maoists on the issue of a fully PR election. The three big parties could cut a three way deal.

1. The Nepali Congress gets to continue to keep the prime ministerial berth.
   
2. In turn, it agrees to hold a completely PR election to the constituent assembly.
3. In turn, the Maoists agree to hold a referendum on the republic question.
   

This way each big party gets something.

What Could A Possible Election Schedule Look Like?

October 2008: Depose Girija, put Madhav Nepal as Nepal's new eight party Prime Minister. Speaker position goes to Congress, to Chitralekha Yadav.

November 2008: Respectful dialogue with all armed Madhesi groups, Jwala, Goit and the rest of them. Release all their imprisoned cadres, take back all cases filed against them, put all their soldiers into cantonments, and invite them to participate in a fully PR election.

February 2008: Deadline for new parties to register.

April 2008: Referendum on the monarchy. Country becomes republic. Ram Raja Prasad Singh, first president of Nepal for being the original republican.

May 2008: Dissolve the interim parliament.

June 2008: Fully PR election to a constituent assembly, 300 strong. Every third name on a party's list must be female. Other than that there are no rules.


पुर्ण समानुपाितक िनर्वाचन अौर एक मधेश एक प्रदेशका नारा पर्याप्त है
डा देवेन्द्र राज पाण्डे: अन्तिरम प्रधान मन्त्री?
Nepal Must Get A New Prime Minister
Pradip Nepal: Pahadi Tiger
The Symbolism Of Girija Giving Mahto's Ministry To Kans Sitaula
ICG: Nepal's Fragile Peace Process
New CMP, New PM, Fully PR Election, Register More Parties, Elections In April
न्यु यर्कका पहिरयाहरू
November 22: Elections Must Happen
The Animals Of The Kapilvastu Riots
Armed Revolution To Street Agitation To Parliamentary Arithmetic
Koirala Has Only 85 Out of 330
Middle Ground: PR Election Now, Republic Later
Completely Proportional Election: Meeting Point With The Maoists
Not UML-Maoist Unification Or Unity, But A One Point Agreement On PR Election
Baburam Bhattarai Is Right About UML-Maoist Unity
एक मात्र िमलनिवन्दु: पुर्ण समानुपाितक िनर्वाचन
I Agree With Prachanda On Republic And Proportional Election


In The News

Nepal, India lose billions after election postponement Times of India, India the government wasted NRS 70 crore alone on printing election material, like ballot papers, the code of conduct and posters. ..... Generous election assistance had been pouring in from major donors, like India, US and EU. Besides assistance in the form of vehicles and voting machines, India has been flowing in its Election Commission officials for advice and recently, organised an elaborate seminar on constituent assembly.
Is Nepal's democracy in danger? BBC News Many analysts are doubting if the polls will be held at all. ..... The postponement of the polls should be viewed against the wider Maoist strategy. .... In subsequent months, the Maoists became part of the interim parliament and the government. ..... They also went about gaining as much influence as possible in commerce, the media and other areas of public life in the capital. .... So having established themselves in Kathmandu, they have one final objective left - to capture power. ..... Most analysts agree that the Maoists have little chance of doing this through competitive politics. They have lost much of their influence in the countryside, and are unpopular in the cities. ...... They have also shown an ability to outwit their opponents in a way that erodes the authority of much of the state. ..... Now they have reached a point where they seem able to put a break on a national objective like holding elections, something that virtually the entire country had agreed on. ..... This, many say, has severely weakened the public's confidence in its legitimate institutions. ...... Many people have begun to talk about Nepal entering an era of either ultra-rightist (military or military-backed) or ultra-leftist (Maoist) dictatorship. ....... They are not ruling out bloodshed between the army and the Maoists, who have concentrated a large number of their members in Kathmandu. ....... The Maoists have now hinted that they are ready to compromise on the timing of the abolition of the monarchy. ..... But they look far less likely to compromise on the proportional representation issue. ...... Whatever is decided - and other options are up for discussion - the result could well need amendments to the constitution and relevant electoral laws. ...... From all this mess, it is King Gyanendra who is gaining. ...... the wider held view is that a final showdown between the army and the Maoists in Kathmandu is more likely than ever. ....... If such a situation arises, nobody knows who will prevail. ..... retired Gen Ashok Mehta, believes that Delhi would be prepared to give military help to the government in Kathmandu rather than see the Maoists seizing power by force.
Curfew imposed in southeast Nepal after clashes International Herald Tribune, France
Serial blasts in southern Nepal People's Daily Online, China
Govt approves report to nationalise Nepal king's properties Press Trust of India, India
Nepalese nationalize monarch's property. United Press International
Eastern Nepal limps back to normalcy Kantipur Online, Nepal
Bandh Suspended for Three Days in Eastern Nepal Himalayan Times